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Re:Alaska’s thawing soils are now pouring carbon dioxide int... by zitterbewegung on Wednesday August 23, 2017 @03:30PM (#15084369)
I came to that realization after taking an environmental education class where they " left out the feedback loops". I disagree with your sentiment that they had to leave things like this out of the model. If it was left out it was probably not well understood. Its pretty easy to see that any form of mitigation is irrelevant until it becomes a real problem because getting large groups to agree on things isn't a scientific thing but a problem for society. Usually that only occurs when its pretty apparent that they have to do something to mitigate it.
Re:Alaska’s thawing soils are now pouring carbon dioxide int... by Florin_Andrei on Wednesday August 23, 2017 @04:45PM (#15084907)
One of the major flaws of this species is that we don't do anything inconvenient, that requires global agreement, until it becomes literally an existential threat. And even then we may dither, and there will be special interests that will keep spreading out misinformation about it, etc.

Seriously, the "sapiens" part in the name of our species is a bit of an exaggeration.

Re:Alaska’s thawing soils are now pouring carbon dioxide int... by simonh on Wednesday August 23, 2017 @05:15PM (#15085262)
To be fair to us we are only just barely sentient.

In evolutionary terms we have literally only just managed to build a technological society. Therefore it stands to reason we only recently evolved sufficient intelligence to do so. Otherwise we'd have done it sooner. In the grand scheme of things we're on the very lowest bottom level of the sentience hierarchy.

Re:Alaska’s thawing soils are now pouring carbon dioxide int... by gooseus on Wednesday August 23, 2017 @06:08PM (#15085638)
That's fair, but it'll be sad to see our species added to the dustbin of history after squandering such a great opportunity to move from planetary to stellar civilization.

If there happen to be any other sentient species watching us, I can only assume they spend most of the time face-palming, head-shaking and eye-rolling.

Re:Alaska’s thawing soils are now pouring carbon dioxide int... by ams6110 on Wednesday August 23, 2017 @06:55PM (#15085916)
Maybe there aren't any. Maybe all sentient species self-destruct when they discover and start developing technology but don't understand all the implications. There's a theory along these lines that explains why we've never found any signs of extraterrestrial intelligent life.
Re:Alaska’s thawing soils are now pouring carbon dioxide int... by MoOmer on Wednesday August 23, 2017 @07:10PM (#15086015)
Re:Alaska’s thawing soils are now pouring carbon dioxide int... by ams6110 on Wednesday August 23, 2017 @08:17PM (#15086503)
Yes. I actually subscribe to the idea that local maxima at a lower level if sentience is much more common.

We'd probably still be a dinosaur-populated planet if not for a random asteroid.

Re:Alaska’s thawing soils are now pouring carbon dioxide int... by systemWizord on Thursday August 24, 2017 @03:46AM (#15088342)
In my humble opinion, antinatalism contributes much to it. Smartest people I know are strictly antinatalist, and it makes sense. What's the point of keeping a specie alive? The very product of universe's RNG? Life is mostly suffering as it is, inter-stellar life would probably be even worse.

I'm personally not invested in the environment-preservation fight at all.

Re:Alaska’s thawing soils are now pouring carbon dioxide int... by gooseus on Thursday August 24, 2017 @03:39PM (#15093322)
Maybe I'm an idiot, but I find antinatalist views to be small-minded, selfish and cowardly. In a vast universe of dead matter which tends toward equilibrium and decay there exists a process that tends toward complexity and order.

Life exists in this universe, it's a part it's nature and so is consciousness. Whether by design or by some random chance, it is self-evident that it exists. Not only that, you can find it adapted to the extremes of every environment it encounters.

Suffering is the engine of adaptation and everything we consider valuable has only come about through the immense suffering and sacrifice of those that have lived.

We, as conscious life, are the only known species which have the possibility to adapt to an environment outside of Earth. I believe, without any external spiritual input, that our responsibility is quite clear.

How much suffering is a function of the zero-sum game that is played in our (mostly) closed environment? Yes, expanding into space may increase the overall number of individuals suffering, but isn't it really suffering per capita that should be the measure?

Suffering isn't to be ignored and I believe seeking to reduce when possible is admirable and morally right... but to abdicate our responsibility to the process of life and allow it halt (which it will eventually on this planet)? Simply because some people feel bad about things sometimes? No, I'm not buying it for a second.

Re:Alaska’s thawing soils are now pouring carbon dioxide int... by systemWizord on Friday August 25, 2017 @12:19PM (#15099618)
Yes, I agree, you are an idiot. "We" don't have responsibility to the process of life, it's your animal programming overriding all logic and rationality with stupid rhetoric like entropy vs complexity and other such mindless crap.
Re:Alaska’s thawing soils are now pouring carbon dioxide int... by gooseus on Tuesday August 29, 2017 @05:31PM (#15127767)
Meh, obviously you're not the "we" I'm referring to... We appreciate your dedication to not propagating yourself, enjoy the rest of your time.
Re:Alaska’s thawing soils are now pouring carbon dioxide int... by colordrops on Wednesday August 23, 2017 @06:45PM (#15085852)
> I can only assume they spend most of the time face-palming, head-shaking and eye-rolling

Or they see us as a natural phenomenon following similar patterns to other fledgling civilizations. We don't roll our eyes when a pathogen is so virulent it kills its host before it propagates.

Re:Alaska’s thawing soils are now pouring carbon dioxide int... by Florin_Andrei on Wednesday August 23, 2017 @07:28PM (#15086142)
> we're on the very lowest bottom level of the sentience hierarchy

I don't have proof of this, but I think most creatures have some amount of awareness, progressively decreasing as you descend the great chain of central nervous system complexity. Probably decreasing quickly at first, from humans to primates to regular mammals, and more slowly afterwards, until asymptotically vanishing into virtual nothingness as there's no complex nervous system to speak of anymore.

Perhaps we're at the bottom of the interval of what could be called truly self-aware consciousness, as opposed to, I don't know, maybe somnolent or lethargic or dimly awake consciousness. With that I would agree.

Which of course automatically raises the question: why should the ascending arc stop here? And what do the next levels look like? Probably impossible for us to imagine even in principle, but still.

Re:Alaska’s thawing soils are now pouring carbon dioxide int... by googletazer on Wednesday August 23, 2017 @04:55PM (#15085027)
Considering that research shows that every human existed today is descended from a small group that survived the Ice Age in Madagascar, I wouldn't call it a flaw. More like a self-regulating system that adjusts to behaviors where every independent actor is out for themselves.
Re:Alaska’s thawing soils are now pouring carbon dioxide int... by mirimir on Wednesday August 23, 2017 @04:53PM (#15085012)
I'm reminded of Stephenson's Seveneves.
Re:Alaska’s thawing soils are now pouring carbon dioxide int... by moultano on Wednesday August 23, 2017 @06:27PM (#15085740)
I would have never imagined that a book about the utter obliteration of the world could be so hopeful.
Re:Alaska’s thawing soils are now pouring carbon dioxide int... by mirimir on Wednesday August 23, 2017 @08:22PM (#15086536)
I recently read D.O.D.O., and I'm convinced that it's in the same literary world as Anathem and Seveneves. I won't say more, but do read D.O.D.O., if you've otherwise liked Stephenson's work.
Re:Alaska’s thawing soils are now pouring carbon dioxide int... by mirimir on Wednesday August 23, 2017 @06:36PM (#15085797)
Indeed. I'd say more, but spoilers.
Re:Alaska’s thawing soils are now pouring carbon dioxide int... by Florin_Andrei on Wednesday August 23, 2017 @07:34PM (#15086188)
I'm a licensed HAM radio operator, but I'm too young to have gone through the Morse era. One of the things that book did for me was kindling my interest in learning to transmit and receive Morse.

I mean, you never know when you might need it, right? :)

Re:Alaska’s thawing soils are now pouring carbon dioxide int... by brightsize on Wednesday August 23, 2017 @08:32PM (#15086591)
I'm a Ham too and I'm wondering if it might be a good time to assemble a crystal radio - no power needed.
Re:Alaska’s thawing soils are now pouring carbon dioxide int... by cholmon on Wednesday August 23, 2017 @05:25PM (#15085322)
my first thought as well
Re:Alaska’s thawing soils are now pouring carbon dioxide int... by microcolonel on Wednesday August 23, 2017 @04:48PM (#15084947)
> Seriously, the "sapiens" part in the name of our species is a bit of an exaggeration.

Compared to what? I think you should be happy with what you've got, because it's the best we've ever seen. I'm happier with a species that could burn out, than one that could do no wrong. If there was a problem, yo, we'll solve it.

Re:Alaska’s thawing soils are now pouring carbon dioxide int... by Florin_Andrei on Wednesday August 23, 2017 @04:50PM (#15084976)
Compared to the freaking brink of annihilation that we walk to every time there's an opportunity to do so.
Re:Alaska’s thawing soils are now pouring carbon dioxide int... by guelo on Wednesday August 23, 2017 @05:50PM (#15085541)
It's a prisoner's dilemma type problem. Unless you can get everybody to agree then the rational thing to do is to use as much carbon as you can to stay ahead of the other guys.
Re:Alaska’s thawing soils are now pouring carbon dioxide int... by vacri on Thursday August 24, 2017 @02:28AM (#15088051)
It's not a prisoner's dilemma at all. There are plenty of humans trying to change, and several countries. Herein lies the problem with game theory - it reduces human behaviour to absurdly simplistic levels.
Re:Alaska’s thawing soils are now pouring carbon dioxide int... by Florin_Andrei on Wednesday August 23, 2017 @07:18PM (#15086071)
> the rational thing

Perhaps that indicates that reason itself has some hardcoded fundamental limits.

Re:Alaska’s thawing soils are now pouring carbon dioxide int... by tajen on Wednesday August 23, 2017 @07:46PM (#15086281)
The hard limit is just that the ones who survive survive. And the reasonable people die. The reasonable are those who don't consume more resources than their environment provides.
Re:Alaska’s thawing soils are now pouring carbon dioxide int... by jacquesm on Wednesday August 23, 2017 @06:21PM (#15085708)
> Seriously, the "sapiens" part in the name of our species is a bit of an exaggeration.

I think that was meant to point to the individuals, not the species as a whole and that's exactly what causes this problem. But we're working on the hive mind as we speak.

Re:Alaska’s thawing soils are now pouring carbon dioxide int... by losteric on Wednesday August 23, 2017 @05:30PM (#15085362)
Have we ever done something that requires global agreement?
Re:Alaska’s thawing soils are now pouring carbon dioxide int... by joshmaker on Wednesday August 23, 2017 @05:35PM (#15085407)
The Montreal Protocol was a successful international treaty to protect the Ozone Layer, so there is some precedence for countries coming together to protect our environment:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Montreal_Protocol

Re:Alaska’s thawing soils are now pouring carbon dioxide int... by carapace on Wednesday August 23, 2017 @08:41PM (#15086656)
Re:Alaska’s thawing soils are now pouring carbon dioxide int... by mturmon on Wednesday August 23, 2017 @05:57PM (#15085581)
Approximately all nations, the Nuclear test ban treaty (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Comprehensive_Nuclear-Test-Ban...)
Re:Alaska’s thawing soils are now pouring carbon dioxide int... by praneshp on Wednesday August 23, 2017 @08:44PM (#15086671)
I kind of disagree with this one. The number is high, but a bunch of countries haven't signed it (As of 2016, eight Annex 2 states have not ratified the treaty: China, Egypt, Iran, Israel and the United States have signed but not ratified the Treaty; India, North Korea and Pakistan have not signed it.) [[0]

[0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Comprehensive_Nuclear-Test-Ban...

Re:Alaska’s thawing soils are now pouring carbon dioxide int... by ghrifter on Wednesday August 23, 2017 @06:00PM (#15085602)
Re:Alaska’s thawing soils are now pouring carbon dioxide int... by ams6110 on Wednesday August 23, 2017 @06:59PM (#15085939)
True, but there was a ready substitute. When have we ever had a global agreement that required real sacrifice?
Re:Alaska’s thawing soils are now pouring carbon dioxide int... by redcalx on Wednesday August 23, 2017 @05:33PM (#15085393)
CFC ban?
Re:Alaska’s thawing soils are now pouring carbon dioxide int... by api on Wednesday August 23, 2017 @05:04PM (#15085127)
This isn't a flaw in the species. It's a consequence of game theory and evolution and would likely be found in any species that was a product of evolution.
Re:Alaska’s thawing soils are now pouring carbon dioxide int... by baddox on Wednesday August 23, 2017 @05:39PM (#15085442)
Perhaps a singular consciousness could evolve that wouldn't have the inherent game theoretical problems that groups of conscious individuals have.
Re:Alaska’s thawing soils are now pouring carbon dioxide int... by flukus on Thursday August 24, 2017 @03:53AM (#15088369)
A colony species would also be free from these problems, they look remarkably like a singular consciousness from the outside.

At the moment we're a tribal species that builds colonies, we just haven't evolved to fit into them yet.

Re:Alaska’s thawing soils are now pouring carbon dioxide int... by amelius on Wednesday August 23, 2017 @05:06PM (#15085152)
Yes, this is one of the explanations of the Fermi paradox.
Re:Alaska’s thawing soils are now pouring carbon dioxide int... by Florin_Andrei on Wednesday August 23, 2017 @07:20PM (#15086088)
It took me a couple seconds to realize how utterly pessimistic that statement is.
Re:Alaska’s thawing soils are now pouring carbon dioxide int... by api on Wednesday August 23, 2017 @05:13PM (#15085237)
I was discussing that with a friend once and I argued that a more intelligent species might fare worse in these matters. It would more rapidly and aggressively exploit its environment due to higher intelligence and would therefore run a greater risk of triggering catastrophic environmental events.

The problem is that there is no game theoretic advantage in cooperating to reduce CO2 unless everyone cooperates. If one large player (e.g. USA or China) or many small players do not cooperate then the incentive flips and it's actually in everyone's best interest to defect. If catastrophic climate change is going to happen anyway then you are better off burning as much CO2 as you want to build up your economy so you have a better chance of mitigating the damage. It's basically a variation on the prisoner's dilemma scenario.

Re:Alaska’s thawing soils are now pouring carbon dioxide int... by CountSessine on Wednesday August 23, 2017 @07:08PM (#15086003)
I guess someone didn't like hearing what you said, but you're absolutely right. Global agreements are coordination problems; there's an incentive to violate them, discretely at least. And there's a cost to genuinely comply with the agreement while others are clandestinely violating it.
Re:Alaska’s thawing soils are now pouring carbon dioxide int... by forapurpose on Wednesday August 23, 2017 @08:26PM (#15086560)
> Its pretty easy to see that any form of mitigation is irrelevant until it becomes a real problem because getting large groups to agree on things isn't a scientific thing but a problem for society. Usually that only occurs when its pretty apparent that they have to do something to mitigate it.

Many countries have agreed climate change is a serious problem and have acted on it, and for a long time. The U.S. is a major exception. It's doable; the Republican Party in the U.S. is the problem.

Re:Alaska’s thawing soils are now pouring carbon dioxide int... by erikpukinskis on Thursday August 24, 2017 @03:52AM (#15088367)
The Republican Party in the U.S. is just a proxy for the big multinational corporations. Americans didn't vote them in, they voted themselves in. They'll continue to vote themselves in as long as they can find ways to manipulate public opinion in the handful of districts where it matters.
Re:Alaska’s thawing soils are now pouring carbon dioxide int... by glitcher on Wednesday August 23, 2017 @04:35PM (#15084830)
> getting large groups to agree on things isn't a scientific thing but a problem for society

Sadly true on so many levels.