I've heard this repeatedly over the years. There are ALWAYS new markets. You just have to look in the right places, or wait for new pareto frontiers to open up.
Wait, what's a laptop? What's a workgroup server? What's email? None of those things had really happened, they were all markets just over the horizon about to explode onto the scene.
This was in Spring, 1987.
People just want different software every few years, because fashion is fickle there's a natural feeling that old stuff is out of date. Slack doesn't provide any real improvement over an IRC server that keeps its logs around, but it's web-based and it has custom emojis, so...
Of-course dad didn't listen and went on to have a unremarkable career as a Structural Engineer.
A real shame as I'm sure he would have made an excellent programmer. I like to tease him over what-ifs - especially as he shares a birthday with Bill Gates.
Granted, most of the things you would come up with are currently infeasible due to technological or scientific prerequisites not being available yet, but many of them are also in the realm of "possible, but no one has figured it out yet".
You know of course that this statement has been uttered for a couple thousand years.
The only device significantly ahead of it in sales is the Roku (Amazon and Google's sticks are ~the same number of sales as Apple TV).
But the market is pretty evenly split in sales and Apple still maintains one of the larger overall install bases for any of them (not the outsized winner it used to be there though of course).
"Not being a de-facto monopoly" is hardly a loss.
Chromecast cannot possibly be considered usable by most because it follows a weirdo, google-style, controlled-by-the-browser (but only Chrome) model. It is the most absurd way to watch TV ever invented. I use it sometimes, sure, because it's the only Linux-friendly HDMI dongle (Chrome runs on Linux), but can't imagine anyone actually liking it.
Apple TV, in comparison, is tightly integrated into every MacOS and iOS device, i.e. not only into the OS but often into the applications that run on them. And I don't remember anyone offering a free ATV to me... :)
This only makes sense if you completely disregard the fact that almost all the major VOD providers (excepting Amazon Prime Video) provide Chromecast support in their Android and iOS apps. It's extremely convenient for me; open the app, cast to the TV, and select the video.
I wish that more tablet and phone apps supported it. But then I always have the browser fallback when they don't.
Apple TV is OK and I have one. But I prefer to display stuff the way I'm already accustomed to doing so and then cast it to my TV when I want to.
Even if I open a torrent file on my laptop, it automatically starts streaming to the Chromecast.
I'm honestly suprised that someone dares to say that the Chromecast isn't successful/usable
Ps. I have 3 Chromecasts and 1 Chromecast audio
Wait, what? How did you set this up?
The arguments are the default ones, that are triggerd when you "Open With" - Choose a program. You receive a filename
Then run a new console, which runs castnow ( https://github.com/xat/castnow ). And voila
PS. Can choose the wrong chromecast when there are 2 devices in the network :p
I'm totally aware that it's basically just a fancy HDMI cable but we can easily cast from three operating systems, plus all our phones and tablets. I don't want a device any smarter than this, with menus and libraries of stuff it wants me to buy. The Chromecast model works great for us.
I love my AppleTV and got it free from pre-paying my DIRECTV Now app for 3 months. It was a no brainer for me.
Everything I use for media support Chromecast on both iOS and Android (Spotify, Pocket Casts, Netflix, Youtube, etc) Chrome supports to videos in websites. I'd say most times I go to see if an android app has Chromecast support, it does. I'm not sure how much that's true of iOS apps. I'd guess it's less.
Google home integration is really nice too. I can tell Google home to play something on the Chromecast.
I've worked in places with Macs + Apple TVs in conference rooms, and Airplay was definitely more annoying than Chromecasting.
Maybe you should have considered that before engaging in a conversation about devices tightly integrated with Android.
Roku had $400 million in revenue in 2016[1] which includes content share while Apple TV produced a billion dollars of revenue back in in 2013 [2]. And Apple's margins are way higher than Roku's. Apple TV, while a self described 'hobby' by Apple (presumably when compared to iOS/Mac), was and still is a very successful product in a category it basically invented.
The problem is that most big markets are small at start.
Aren't there models to enter many smaller markets , like a VC , but instead of just supplying capital, the big company will also supply some key tech/knowledge/resources advantages, maybe some that are specialty developed for startups , all for equity?
Profitable and doing billions of dollars of revenue a quarter.
Losers?
Revenue = Asymco estimate. Apple lumps it into the "Other" category in its reporting. Horace estimated that it was doing $3bn of revenue a year in 2015. Maybe it's still just a $3bn a year business and not a $4bn a year business, but the point remains that calling it a "loser" is nuts.
Global GDB is estimated to be at around 80 trillion $.
Self-driving. Apple Maps.
No employee wants to leave Tesla to work at Apple. No consumer wants to buy a car made by Apple. Hopefully Tim and the gang won't blow through too much money before they accept that.
They're pretty good at making phones and computers. They might want to focus on keeping that reputation in the meantime.
I'm not saying it won't work out, but I don't think their plan is manufacturing cars. Maybe it's just licensing the self driving tech along with the infotainment system.
Is Apple an entity with knowledge that it accumulates, develops, and applies or are people who work on and hold key positions in projects the ones that bring forth knowledge, develop it and apply it?
Is company's know-how separate from people working on it, and are people the ones who (can) bring it into the company or are people coming to the company and applying company's knowledge? What happens if either lacks - can a company bring in (group of) knowledge and can a company bring in (a group) of talent without (much) knowledge?
Cases can be made for both, I guess. So, there's no straight answer.
The thought of bringing in 95% new-hires to work on a project in which your company has no experience... I mean, why?
If the primary motivation is money, without sufficient passion, good luck competing with Tesla - where they live and breath electric cars.
In the context of my comment, Tesla's answer to "why" was a bit more inspiring than "we need to enter a new market because our existing markets are saturated"
Phones are toys. Cars kill people and are highly regulated.
Mis-using vehicles while operating on the road is illegal.
Cars are far more tightly regulated both for end-users and for manufacturers.
However, people use cars across broad use cases. Some just commute, but some drive in snow, some need to ford small streams in emergencies, some need to install roof racks, and some want car-seats for infants.
I don't see Apple designing for broad use cases, because it isn't in their culture. And that will be a problem, because cars are not toys that you can choose not to use without large consequences.
> Your reasoning is excellent.
Fwiw, I meant that sincerely. I just doubt Apple can pull it off.Jamie Carlson (ex-Tesla autopilot)
Megan McClain (ex-Volkswagen)
Vinay Palakkode (Carnegie Mellon automated driving)
Xianqiao Tong (computer vision at Nvidia)
Paul Furgale (Autonomous systems lab at SFIT)
Sanjay Massey (automated vehicles, Ford)
Stefan Weber (Bosch video based driver assistance)
Lech Szumilas (Delphi computer vision researcher)
Doug Betts (global quality lead at Fiat)
Johann Jungwirth (head of R&D at Mercedes)
Mujeeb Ijaz (Ford electrical battery cell specialist)
Nancy Sun (VP electrical engineering at electric motorcycle company Mission Motors)
Mark Sherwood (VP powertrain systems engineering at Mission Motors)
Eyal Cohen (VP software Mission Motors)
Jonathan Cohen (director of Nvidia's deep learning group)
Chris Porritt (Tesla VP of vehicle engineering and chief engineer at Aston Martin)
Alex Hitzinger (Technical Director of Porsche LMP1)
Cool.
Like Steve Zadesky before them: http://businessinsider.com/apple-steve-zadesky-quits-2016-1
Re: the Tesla names (biased article, but fun): http://marketwatch.com/story/elon-musk-heres-why-we-call-app...
The profile of Jonathan Ive in the New Yorker last year made it pretty clear that he was interested in the car because he hates his car. But tbh: car manufacturers are primarily interested in "financial reasons" for making cars. That's called being in business.
It's interesting that your original premise has now been refuted:
> The only problem is that Apple doesn't have sufficient drive, talent, or reputation, in the auto industry to actually make and sell a good car. No employee wants to leave Tesla to work at Apple.
Apple demonstrably has talent from around the auto industry, with reputations which suggest they might be capable of building a good car, and people have left Tesla to join them.
So you're now changing your argument to "well maybe they can hire people, have the reputation, have the drive, and persuade consumers that they want to buy a car from Apple, but those employees have to talk to dumb computer execs!"
I must have forgotten all about Elon Musk's background in automotive manufacturing which makes him uniquely equipped to build an electric self-driving car compared to someone like Tim Cook.
Honestly the arguments you're making are so absurd that they border on the infantile.
Why not? Have you seen it?
[citation needed]
No consumer wanted to buy a phone from Apple either. Until they made one.
Also there's nothing routine I do at the Apple Store that requires me to wait any significant amount of time. Anytime I have a question, or want to buy something, or pick up an online order the service could hardly be any more prompt.
The only thing I have to wait for is the Genius Bar, and if I schedule in advance I don't usually wait very long. And I only have to do that when something actually breaks.
When my car breaks I generally have to schedule something in advance as well.
I'd consider buying self-driving features on a regular car. Electric would be a total deal-breaker for me with today's technology.
Edit: upon further reflection I think it's likely that Apple is just developing the self driving tech and is unlikely to be actually planning to build cars, electric or otherwise.
For Apple and Google, the case is clear: if they want to defend their incredibly valuable gatekeeper position for local search (the market formerly known as the yellow pages) they need to provide the UI for the car or else they lose much of that gatekeeping. The question is, will any car manufacturers be willing to play, or are they all trying to succeed where Nokia failed?
I'm guessing service on Teslas is the usual: brake pads every century given that regenerative braking does most of the work, greasing bearings every now and then, coolant, tires, wipers. Internal combustion is extremely complicated in comparison.
There is a 0% chance that I would ever purchase a car from Apple with their self driving functionality in it.
We recently had issues with a whole bunch of rejections of our app for reasons that are not clearly defined in their guidelines (allegedly they were "new terms" [not documented]... they pointed me to official documents that didn't match what they were telling me). The functionality that they were rejecting our app for initially wasn't new, followed by several rejections for functionality that had been in the app for nearly 2 1/2 years and had approved numerous times over that span.
I've been waiting almost a month for a phone call that they promised me "within 3 business days" to discuss the App Review issues, and have yet to receive it.
While I think that Apple creates some great hardware, and their end user support is likely better than their B2B support (which is IMHO atrocious, unless you're buying more hardware from them), there is no chance I would put my life in the hands of their product or expect them to provide me with safe travel.
I'm sure you are very frustrated, but this comment really doesn't make sense to me.
I would tend to think of an apple car as hardware, which you admit is good. And it's probably being driven by apple software, which is sometimes iffy and buggy and downright crappy. I can't imagine a world where your argument makes sense because 3rd party/app story complaints really have nothing to do with this.
It feels like a total non sequitur to me. I'm not going to flag you, but I am going to downvote.
In this situation, a self driving car is a combination of hardware and software. As you said:
> it's probably being driven by apple software, which is sometimes iffy and buggy and downright crappy
Whether it rolls well is one thing, but I question the consistency of the software from them, as well as their consistency on policies (app rejections)
It sounds like you have a beef with Apple, but frankly, I want my automaker to be overly cautious with 3rd party apps. Can you imagine the Android model applied to self driving cars?
I don't know that I can fault them for feeling frustrated with Apple's support. The number of times that things have been made obsolete by Apple after just a couple of years doesn't lend a lot of confidence to the thought of a vehicle purchase that you may wish to own for 10+ years.
A more recent example is the telepresence robot. Many entries, but still more Newton than iPhone.
With Apple, it's easy to pick out their winners and losers: iPhone, iMac, MacBook, ... vs, Apple TV, Lisa, Newton, ....
At their current scale, Apple needs to enter really big markets in order to move the needle on sales and profits. There aren't many really big tech markets left. Cars are an interesting play in that it combines robotics and consumer tech, and puts them into a market that has room for multiple large players and plenty of opportunity for disruption. The transition to an electric drive train and autonomous navigation presents an entry point. There will be multiple winners.