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Re:Netflix Earnings Are Driven by Investment in Original Con... by Joeri on Monday January 23, 2017 @12:45AM (#13460076)
Why are there ads on cable tv? Why can't they just charge tv subscribers the whole amount and get rid of ads on tv? If netflix can do it, why can't tv do the same?
Re:Netflix Earnings Are Driven by Investment in Original Con... by JoshTriplett on Monday January 23, 2017 @01:05AM (#13460169)
> Why can't they just charge tv subscribers the whole amount

The secret is that there's no "whole amount", because that would imply the concept of "enough money". There's no such thing as "enough money".

I mean that entirely non-sarcastically; to the extent it doesn't go to cover their costs, it goes to increase their profit, which has no upper bound. If they've found a way to extract more money, they'll do it. They question then becomes "to what extent have they found a larger revenue stream, and to what extent have they obtained more money now by alienating customers and driving them to other services".

Re:Netflix Earnings Are Driven by Investment in Original Con... by Bombthecat on Monday January 23, 2017 @01:27AM (#13460266)
I expect from Netflix no less. As soon the growth phase is over. They will turn to ads.
Re:Netflix Earnings Are Driven by Investment in Original Con... by JoshTriplett on Monday January 23, 2017 @02:12AM (#13460443)
They have too many competitors right on their heels for that. Netflix introducing ads would drive people to Amazon Prime, and vice versa. (Hulu partially gets away with it because they have an offering their competitors don't, namely seasons still in progress.)
Re:Netflix Earnings Are Driven by Investment in Original Con... by sleepychu on Monday January 23, 2017 @04:27AM (#13460949)
Amazon Prime has gotten awful for adverts. They have pre-rolls for their other shows, which you could consider OK at the moment but this is exactly what happened with their Fire $TV_DEVICE line. They had a banner ad for new shows and that banner ad slowly morphed into advertising for financial services and such.

I've never been so upset about a product like this. I think I paid ~70GBP for the Fire TV and 20 each for two Fire TV sticks and then they sneak advertising in with a software update after the fact. It's particularly egregious because they've recognised the equivalence of ads and charging you money on their tablet range which I think you can buy at a discount if you agree to have ads shown to you on the home screen.

Re:Netflix Earnings Are Driven by Investment in Original Con... by mysticmarvel on Monday January 23, 2017 @08:23AM (#13461977)
Bin them. Bin Amazon Prime too. Be sure to tell them why you're doing it.

Cable was originally advert-free. It was slipped in gradually over time. They got away with it because people put up with it and didn't call foul and stop subscribing. Expect Amazon, Netflix, everyone to do it. Precedent was set with cable subscriptions. The bar is set very low, and our resistance is known to be pitiful.

Re:Netflix Earnings Are Driven by Investment in Original Con... by sleepychu on Monday January 23, 2017 @08:48AM (#13462112)
> Cable was originally advert-free.

I don't think that's true, https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=13460306

> Bin them. Bin Amazon Prime too.

That would be altruistic but I don't think that enough people will do it with me (and I have no interest in organising them to do so). I'm tempted to return the device since they've changed the fundamental functionality, IMO.

Re:Netflix Earnings Are Driven by Investment in Original Con... by ethbro on Monday January 23, 2017 @07:52AM (#13461832)
I realize I'm not the prime demographic for this.

But why would I ever be interested in watching a season in progress when I can watch backlog until it finishes, then watch the entire season on my own schedule?

Re:Netflix Earnings Are Driven by Investment in Original Con... by JoshTriplett on Monday January 23, 2017 @09:10AM (#13462223)
Two reasons. First, because during the initial transition from cable, you might want to keep watching existing shows from where you left off, without having to wait for the end of the season. And second, because other people watch the show live and you want to keep up with them.

The first problem goes away after the initial transition, and the second goes away when everyone you know also uses Netflix and/or Amazon Prime. But don't underestimate the value in getting people to switch.

Re:Netflix Earnings Are Driven by Investment in Original Con... by wmil on Monday January 23, 2017 @08:53AM (#13462135)
There's a social aspect to popular TV shows that are airing.

If you keep up to date you can discuss the EP on various forums right after it airs. Then it's something to talk about with your co-workers who are also fans.

Re:Netflix Earnings Are Driven by Investment in Original Con... by dogma1138 on Monday January 23, 2017 @04:34AM (#13460976)
Both Netflix and amazon have season in progress with weekly releases not as much in the US tho.
Re:Netflix Earnings Are Driven by Investment in Original Con... by thomasz on Monday January 23, 2017 @01:34AM (#13460298)
In that case, I'm dead sure that a lot of their customers will return to piracy.
Re:Netflix Earnings Are Driven by Investment in Original Con... by hkmurakami on Monday January 23, 2017 @01:55AM (#13460376)
How many is a lot? If the proportion of revenue increase outweighs subscriber loss, it's still worth inserting ads.
Re:Netflix Earnings Are Driven by Investment in Original Con... by Freak_NL on Monday January 23, 2017 @04:47AM (#13461025)
Only if all competitors did the same. Unlike cable or terrestrial broadcast television, with Netflix the consumer has choice and can simply go to a competitor (this includes piracy). If Netflix starts experimenting with advertisements, they will give competitors a chance to move in on the subscribers that won't stand for it.

Losing subscribers is fine if they don't go anywhere else (because they can't), but losing subscribers to a competitor is a risky move.

Re:Netflix Earnings Are Driven by Investment in Original Con... by sriku on Monday January 23, 2017 @07:14AM (#13461616)
I expect the same too. In a capitalist economy, companies need to market their products and they will always find a way to pay media companies for eye time. At the outset, I think fighting ads is. Lost cause though depending on the novelty of media there may be temporary relief.
Re:Netflix Earnings Are Driven by Investment in Original Con... by tehwebguy on Monday January 23, 2017 @04:14AM (#13460909)
No chance IMO. The pool of competing content buyers is rapidly growing.
Re:Netflix Earnings Are Driven by Investment in Original Con... by gozur88 on Monday January 23, 2017 @01:56AM (#13460377)
>I mean that entirely non-sarcastically; to the extent it doesn't go to cover their costs, it goes to increase their profit, which has no upper bound.

Really? So why don't they show more commercials, or charge more for the service?

The reason there are commercials is it allows them to offer the service for less money and most people don't care.

Re:Netflix Earnings Are Driven by Investment in Original Con... by JoshTriplett on Monday January 23, 2017 @02:07AM (#13460420)
> Really? So why don't they show more commercials, or charge more for the service?

Because there's a balance where doing more would lead to much more immediate revenue loss. Few people would watch a channel with 20 minutes of commercials for every 10 minutes of show, but network TV has already demonstrated that people will watch shows with 8 minutes of commercials for every 22 minutes of show, especially if they don't have a good alternative. The loss of customers from such a move takes longer to show up in the bottom line, and it started before alternatives like Netflix existed.

> The reason there are commercials is it allows them to offer the service for less money and most people don't care.

They're not in the business of offering a specific fixed service for as little money as it takes to cover their costs; that logic would apply to a non-profit or co-op, not a for-profit company. For a for-profit company, lowering prices isn't an end, it's a means.

Re:Netflix Earnings Are Driven by Investment in Original Con... by gozur88 on Monday January 23, 2017 @03:39AM (#13460767)
>They're not in the business of offering a specific fixed service for as little money as it takes to cover their costs; that logic would apply to a non-profit or co-op, not a for-profit company. For a for-profit company, lowering prices isn't an end, it's a means.

Of course. There's nothing nefarious going on here. They're constrained by competition, the amount of advertising people will tolerate, and what their customers are willing to pay, but within those constraints they'll set up the business so that between commercials and the monthly fee they make the most money.

Re:Netflix Earnings Are Driven by Investment in Original Con... by TeMPOraL on Monday January 23, 2017 @06:44AM (#13461500)
And so circling back to the original question:

> Why can't they just charge tv subscribers the whole amount and get rid of ads on tv?

It's because doing that would mean artificially constraining their own business when they don't have to do that. So why would they?

Re:Netflix Earnings Are Driven by Investment in Original Con... by ethbro on Monday January 23, 2017 @07:59AM (#13461857)
Hypothetically, because they've reached a local maxima. And they recognize that their customers like their current product.

As the article itself notes, few people buy a subscription service for one or two shows.

If Netflix can continue to bid high enough to starve its competitors of high-quality content (because it can amortize its costs over a larger subscriber base), then no competitor can grow large enough to compete without running substantial initial deficits (which Netflix can make temporarily worse if they choose to, by overpaying for content and driving prices up).

So essentially, lack of competition.

Re:Netflix Earnings Are Driven by Investment in Original Con... by hvidgaard on Monday January 23, 2017 @02:38AM (#13460545)
The goal is to maximize profits. If they show commercials for 30 min every hour, they lose subscribers and devaluate the commercial slots.

Somewhere is the optimal balance, where they have lots of subscribers, and show just the right amount of commercials to prevent people from leaving, and thus maximize the value of the ad slots.

Personally, I don't pay for anything with commercials. I just don't want to pay to be fed ads. Instead I pay for streaming services and movies. But if they want to sell me premium channels without commercials, I'll consider it.

Re:Netflix Earnings Are Driven by Investment in Original Con... by vostok on Monday January 23, 2017 @04:16AM (#13460918)
How do you feel about paying for content with product placement or native advertisements?
Re:Netflix Earnings Are Driven by Investment in Original Con... by hvidgaard on Monday January 23, 2017 @05:03AM (#13461088)
Far less reluctant. Product placement, is so obvious anyway, but the alternative is some fictional name/logo. It doesn't detract from my experience, so I'm okay with it (for now).
Re:Netflix Earnings Are Driven by Investment in Original Con... by TeMPOraL on Monday January 23, 2017 @06:45AM (#13461504)
As long as it's not something utterly absurd - like that Nokia tune in J.J. Abrams' (bastardization of) Star Trek.
Re:Netflix Earnings Are Driven by Investment in Original Con... by JoshTriplett on Monday January 23, 2017 @04:29PM (#13466216)
Subtle product placement ("we need a product here anyway, do you want it to be yours or your competitors") seems completely fine to me. If the script calls for them to drive a car or drink a soda, and nothing in the plot depends on the details, then why not?

As for "native advertisements": it really depends on genuineness, and disclosure.

Re:Netflix Earnings Are Driven by Investment in Original Con... by nerfhammer on Monday January 23, 2017 @12:47AM (#13460090)
Cable originally didn't have ads. They just discovered they could put ads in and nobody cancelled their subscriptions.
Re:Netflix Earnings Are Driven by Investment in Original Con... by rchowe on Monday January 23, 2017 @01:37AM (#13460306)
This is actually a common myth. Cable initially was a service where the feed for certain terrestrial broadcast stations was transmitted over a cable for users who could not receive a clear signal. Since the same feed was used, it had the ads the broadcast affiliate put into it.
Re:Netflix Earnings Are Driven by Investment in Original Con... by gozur88 on Monday January 23, 2017 @01:51AM (#13460361)
The original microwave pay channels didn't have commercials. But cable always did.
Re:Netflix Earnings Are Driven by Investment in Original Con... by sametmax on Monday January 23, 2017 @02:06AM (#13460417)
Which basically means it's the consummer fault again. I mean, yes, they are evil. But just like disease, it's useless to blame it. There will always be diseases. It's our responsibility to cure current ones and create environments to avoid future ones. Which means for businesses, if you want them to stop misbehave, you should stop rewarding them when they do. Just like in politics.

Which amazingly we don't do.

Re:Netflix Earnings Are Driven by Investment in Original Con... by FatalBaboon on Monday January 23, 2017 @07:18AM (#13461649)
Especially in a capitalistic world, I believe this is paramount.

Oh you don't like google and facebook eventually abusing what they know about you? Don't use their services.

Re:Netflix Earnings Are Driven by Investment in Original Con... by sametmax on Monday January 23, 2017 @08:54AM (#13462141)
In a capitalistic world, the bank note is a vote bulletin. The only one that is always listened to, and that you can use every day, on every topic. And also the one they don't teach you about in school.
Re:Netflix Earnings Are Driven by Investment in Original Con... by daemin on Monday January 23, 2017 @06:43AM (#13461499)
In Australia when pay/cable TV first came in it was ad free, but then ads were slowly added to it, first just ads for content on the channel, but then normal ads came in. People were rightly angry about this because they thought that by paying for TV they could skip the ads.

However it turned out that by paying for TV they were signaling to advertisers that they were better off (and willing to spend money for things) than regular free-to-air TV watching people, and therefore their eyeballs were worth more. So now pay/cable TV in Australia has more ads per hour than free to air TV.

Re:Netflix Earnings Are Driven by Investment in Original Con... by dragonwriter on Monday January 23, 2017 @02:00AM (#13460394)
> Why are there ads on cable tv?

To pay the bills.

> Why can't they just charge tv subscribers the whole amount and get rid of ads on tv?

That's what premium channels (HBO, Cinemax, etc.) do, and they appeal to a different audience than non-premium cable, because most people are more willing to accept the cost of advertising than the cost of paying for premium channels.

Re:Netflix Earnings Are Driven by Investment in Original Con... by candiodari on Monday January 23, 2017 @10:33AM (#13462849)
https://ir.netflix.com/common/download/download.cfm?companyi...

Look at the bottom line. Netflix lost 126 million dollars in 3 months. Revenue per user is negative and going down. Needless to say, this can't last. Either price more than doubles, or ads come.

Re:Netflix Earnings Are Driven by Investment in Original Con... by dpark on Monday January 23, 2017 @11:20AM (#13463233)
I don't understand what you're reading that's different from what I'm reading. Where do you get this 126 million dollar loss? Netflix reported net income of $66.7MM for the quarter and $186.7MM for the year. [1]

And how could revenue per user be negative? Even if Netflix were burning cash they wouldn't have negative revenue.

[1 (xlsx)] http://files.shareholder.com/downloads/NFLX/3717249512x0x924...

Re:Netflix Earnings Are Driven by Investment in Original Con... by joezydeco on Monday January 23, 2017 @12:49AM (#13460109)
What does "the whole amount" mean?

Think about what your local cable company charges for HBO. They have no advertising and programming is pretty good. Back in the day it was $20/month, now it's something close to $10/mo, right?

What would your cable bill look like if every single channel was $10/month?

Re:Netflix Earnings Are Driven by Investment in Original Con... by rossjudson on Monday January 23, 2017 @12:53AM (#13460127)
I just navigated through Apple's maze to cancel my HBO subscription. I realized that, after months had gone by, it just represented a crap value next to Netflix.
Re:Netflix Earnings Are Driven by Investment in Original Con... by chime on Monday January 23, 2017 @01:07AM (#13460177)
I find HBO shows equal or better in quality than the best Netflix shows. Westworld was fantastic. My wife and I just started watching The Young Pope. In a few months GoT and SV will be back on. HBO is learning from Netflix and coming out with some fantastic shows. I also like catching recent movies on HBO before they show up on Netflix, Amazon Prime etc.

Of course, Netflix is well worth the subscription and if you don't watch a lot of TV, it has enough content to keep you entertained for a while. But I've noticed that I discuss HBO shows more with my friends/family than Netflix ones.

Re:Netflix Earnings Are Driven by Investment in Original Con... by dragonwriter on Monday January 23, 2017 @02:04AM (#13460408)
> HBO is learning from Netflix and coming out with some fantastic shows.

HBO was doing that long before Netflix had original programming and Netflix, fairly overtly -- as in, I'm pretty sure I remember Netflix execs saying this -- was following HBO's arc rather than vice versa.

Re:Netflix Earnings Are Driven by Investment in Original Con... by oddevan on Monday January 23, 2017 @11:43AM (#13463466)
The line was something to the effect of "We need to become HBO faster than HBO becomes us."

It happened.

Re:Netflix Earnings Are Driven by Investment in Original Con... by trevyn on Monday January 23, 2017 @01:32AM (#13460292)
I think you mean Netflix is learning from HBO.

Sopranos, The Wire, Deadwood, Sex and the City, Entourage, etc., all well before Netflix did originals.

Re:Netflix Earnings Are Driven by Investment in Original Con... by bayonetz on Monday January 23, 2017 @02:17AM (#13460461)
Well before these even. HBO has been pioneering the edgy, interesting, original content model for television shows since the 80's. 1st and 10, Larry Sanders Show, Oz, Real Sex, America Undercover, Not Necessarily the News, and on and on...

Netflix has obviously run with the idea though. I'd love to see Netflix and HBO merge actually.

Re:Netflix Earnings Are Driven by Investment in Original Con... by Fricken on Monday January 23, 2017 @01:40AM (#13460322)
Netflix makes it's content choices based on demographic data, and HBO makes it's choices because they have artists who are excited about the project and think it would make a wicked show. The old fashioned way gives better results IMO.
Re:Netflix Earnings Are Driven by Investment in Original Con... by sgift on Monday January 23, 2017 @03:14AM (#13460666)
That doesn't sound correct. HBO wouldn't make a show just because their artists are excited, but because the artists are excited and they think their demographic will watch it. Netflix makes the same, just for a different demographic and with more accurate data. It looks like these data points don't help them, which is interesting. Or those (on HN) who say they don't like the Netflix originals are not part of Netflix core demographic.
Re:Netflix Earnings Are Driven by Investment in Original Con... by nindalf on Monday January 23, 2017 @01:30AM (#13460284)
I live in a part of the world where the opposite is true. The Netflix catalogue of originals is there but apart from that its pretty weak. Not value for money at $8/mo. On the other hand there is a legit service that gives me the sports I'm interested in (minus basketball), all HBO shows and recent movies at $3/mo. I'm canceling my subscription to Netflix for now because I find I don't actually spend any time watching it.
Re:Netflix Earnings Are Driven by Investment in Original Con... by ghaff on Monday January 23, 2017 @08:39AM (#13462056)
Even in the US, Netflix is for watching their originals plus a pretty good back catalog of TV shows. If you're looking for anything else, it's a bonus if they happen to have it but you shouldn't really count on it.

A former Netflix tech guy once told me that "People get Netflix for the movies and stay for the TV shows." Though that's probably less true than it used to be given Netflix Originals and a pretty wide recognition that their streaming movie catalog is limited. Today it's probably the Originals that drive the purchasing (as with HBO).

Re:Netflix Earnings Are Driven by Investment in Original Con... by acchow on Monday January 23, 2017 @02:13AM (#13460451)
IMO, Netflix originals mostly suck and HBO is king. Tho, if you come from network and cable television and your standard of good television is Prison Break, I can see how Netflix content and its originals could be appealing.
Re:Netflix Earnings Are Driven by Investment in Original Con... by flukus on Monday January 23, 2017 @02:32AM (#13460514)
> IMO, Netflix originals mostly suck and HBO is king.

Lately I'd agree, but a few years ago that didn't have much and it was mostly high quality. So many of netflixs originals seem to fall into the super hero category that I'm not interested in.

Re:Netflix Earnings Are Driven by Investment in Original Con... by acchow on Monday January 23, 2017 @03:51AM (#13460817)
> but a few years ago that didn't have much and it was mostly high quality.

Which ones were those? Are you sure they were Netflix originals?

Re:Netflix Earnings Are Driven by Investment in Original Con... by flukus on Monday January 23, 2017 @06:00AM (#13461317)
House of cards, Marco polo, Vikings, OITNB. Not sure if they were Netflix originals everywhere but they were here.
Re:Netflix Earnings Are Driven by Investment in Original Con... by geon on Monday January 23, 2017 @01:27AM (#13460267)
They wouldn't need to force-bundle 20 other channels no one wants.
Re:Netflix Earnings Are Driven by Investment in Original Con... by ghaff on Monday January 23, 2017 @05:11AM (#13461120)
The thing is that those "20 other channels no one wants" typically cost them nothing or a minimal amount.

It is true that, if you start slicing out ESPN, A&E, etc. it would theoretically be possible to subscribe to an overall lower cable bill but the cable cos would almost certainly raise per-channel (or mini-bundle) pricing to compensate.

Re:Netflix Earnings Are Driven by Investment in Original Con... by joezydeco on Monday January 23, 2017 @10:19AM (#13462720)
As bad as bundling is, it also has historically subsidized smaller channels that sometimes come up with innovative programming that would otherwise never happen.

Everyone passed on Mad Men except this little movie-rerun channel called AMC. Would Walking Dead have happened without it?

Re:Netflix Earnings Are Driven by Investment in Original Con... by CaptSpify on Monday January 23, 2017 @11:52AM (#13463557)
Sucks to be them. Sorry, but why should I subsidize channels that nobody wants to watch? Sure, occasionally a hit will come out of them, but if a channel can't stay afloat on their own, too bad so sad!
Re:Netflix Earnings Are Driven by Investment in Original Con... by nikdaheratik on Tuesday January 24, 2017 @12:59AM (#13469144)
Well the vast majority of the money from bundling goes to ESPN. If you don't like sports, or only watch during one kind of sports season, then much of the money from cable is a waste.
Re:Netflix Earnings Are Driven by Investment in Original Con... by tn13 on Monday January 23, 2017 @01:00AM (#13460153)
Legacy and entrenched interests. Cable services have optimized their process to call and convert users instead of offering them something useful. TV is often bundled with internet and you are charged extra without you explictly asking for it.
Re:Netflix Earnings Are Driven by Investment in Original Con... by matthuggins on Monday January 23, 2017 @12:47AM (#13460093)
They can, but they don't want to remove revenue streams when enough people are willing to pay for it.
Re:Netflix Earnings Are Driven by Investment in Original Con... by josefresco on Monday January 23, 2017 @09:58AM (#13462561)
This. Why kill a revenue stream (from business), and piss off another stream (consumers) by raising prices?