Of your list:

The wall is a technical impossibility that everyone can recognize. There's no funding for a deportation force and the political optics of goon squads rounding people up is something congress won't do. No one actually wants to yank medical coverage from millions of voters (they'll just let the democrats filibuster it in the senate). There's nothing meaningful to renegotiate in NAFTA, no serious stakeholders have suggestions there. Coal hasn't really gone away, and permiting and regulation changes are going to take longer than four years anyway. "Bring back american companies" is just a fairy tale. Global economics simply doesn't work like that and there's nothing a chief executive can do.

That leaves: Muslim ban. Maybe, at least in some symbolic way. Tax cuts for the rich. Yeah, duh. But that's a republican staple and we've survived it before. US deficit spending is actually not nearly so serious a problem as people believe.

My main concern is foreign policy. The House can drive domestic policy and hopefully not make a mess of it, but foreign policy is all Trump's domain. He's vain and temperamental, this provides two powerful levers that manipulative foreign powers like China and Russia are free to push and pull as they like. He's also notoriously bad at taking advice. Frankly, it's not looking good.

I'm about as worried about a Trump presidency as I am worried that I'll remember how to breath at night.

Human Nature says he'll strive to be the best and I have faith in that.

The man, by his own account, doesn't read books. He gets his information from cable TV. He has the attention span of a gnat (couldn't be bothered to prepare for the debates; it showed). This is the man, back in 1984, who wanted to be the one to handle the nuclear arms negotiations with the Soviets. "It would take an hour-and-a-half to learn everything there is to learn about missiles."[1] In 2016 he didn't know what the nuclear triad was.

His gaffes on foreign policy the last year and a half include: suggesting that the national debt in negotiable, support of Nato allies is not guaranteed, Japan should get Nukes, countries in Asia should feel free to nuke each other if they want to, "if we have the nukes, why can't we use them?". Those are just some of the things I can remember off the top of my head.

The best we can hope for is that he gets bored being a president very quickly and doesn't screw up too much in the meantime.

His entourage doesn't exactly inspire confidence either.

[1] http://www.nationalreview.com/corner/433623/donald-trump-col...

I'm not sure that I buy that from his history. His life is one of chasing adulation and attention. He built gaudy hotels in big cities, he never chased the real estate growth market in housing. He ran a reality show, not a media network.

He's a narcissist, not a despot. Fill his cabinet with fawning sycophants and give him a media organization or two at which to direct his rage and I'll bet anything he just sits on his ass in the oval office and waits out his four years.

I guess that's what passes for optimism today. But it's the story I'm sticking to.

When you get a new job as a software engineer most people just want to be considered good at their jobs, while some select few strive to be considered great. maybe not so much for adulation and attention but to feel like they've mastered something and can thus offer advice to others, it's what drives us. In that pursuit of our definition of greatness we study constantly and try to improve our skills in every area and thus our need to be great drives the sharpening of our skills and leads to a self fulfilling prophecy (Our desire to become great leads to us pursuing more knowledge to become better and thus in time we become great)

Donald Trump's definition of great is clearly being admired and in the spot light. But I think he also defines greatness as being a leader, I think he also associates greatness with quality.

I'm not worried about this presidency one bit, his need to be great will drive him to be great by all definitions.

If Trump wants to be remembered as a great President then he needs to step up and address these fears.

As much as his path to the nomination and then the presidency is a surprise, his call for unity was more presidential than he's ever been. I think it would be short-sighted to immediately discount his presidency as a failure without seeing the people and actions that he puts into place.

For extra points, provide an explanation that doesn't demonize or insult a large swath of the population.

It's a darwinian thing. We don't credit the lobe finned fish for being such geniuses to have developed limbs which could hold them out of the water.

I appreciate the evolutionary metaphor, but its also important to remember that candidates can (and do) change strategies and adapt to circumstances. Indeed, I would expect an intelligent candidate to try various different strategies throughout their campaign (and be better at it than their competition). Clinton and Trump both did. Clinton also had arguably much more help from very powerful allies, and had much more funding.

Also, developing limbs is not a choice; campaign strategy is.

How are you judging whether Trump is intelligent or not? Just because his words/actions seem irrational to you doesn't mean they are irrational. Scott Adams was pretty good at predicting Trump's behavior, so Trump's decision made sense to at least someone.

Right, and it won't get funded. And in 2020 when the same poor people are still poor, he'll claim it's not his fault, it's because he didn't get to build the wall.

Please explain how building a wall is impossible. There are walls and fences everywhere.

> A voyage across the US-Mexico border, stitched together from 200,000 satellite images.

You have to judge those people by their track record, actual actions, not just empty words... which leaves both with very poor credentials.

My view is that the most important job of the President is to ensure the effective functioning of the executive branch agencies. This involves selecting good department heads and pursuing effective policies through the exercise of discretion in rule-making and executive orders.

This is vital, but largely esoteric and technical stuff. It's also an embodiment of the "system" and the "elites" that Trump campaigned against.

I see three possibilities as to how he handles this part of his job:

1. He doesn't actually care and entirely delegates it to people that do, likely the existing right-wing policy apparatus of pro-business, anti-regulation ideologues. The tenor of the agencies changes much as it did under George W. Bush and Dick Cheney, some qualified people leave, but the essential machinery of government continues operating.

2. He delegates the "boring stuff" (SEC, FAA, FDA, IRS, DOE, etc.) per 1 but uses the executive branch machinery to pursue projects that are personally and politically important to him, e.g. leaning on the DoJ to "lock her up" or destroying the EPA. The boring agencies continue to function, but others become plagued by strife and a loss of morale.

3. He blunders, has a health issue, or a serious scandal emerges that politically paralyzes him and nothing happens till he is replaced. Remember, while he's spent a long time in the public eye, he's escaped the usual scrutiny that has been given to the health and financial affairs of post-Nixon candidates.

(Yes, I'm aware that "Godwin's Law invoked". In this case, it's actually relevant.)

One potential danger is that Trump will now be indirectly in charge of the entire country's mass surveillance apparatus. That's a powerful system that could be potentially be weaponized against sections of the population that Trump deems undesirable.

Considering how a certain segment of the population interpreted Trump campaign's last ad and cheered at that interpretation I wouldn't "worry", Muslims are more Jew+ than new Jews: the old ones are still going in the oven.

- @POTUS twitter account is going to start tweeting at 3AM

- I think illegal immigration enforcement could see the most drastic and immediate change. To my knowledge the status quo is not legislated in any way, and was created by preventing enforcement rather than any legal means. When low-skill unemployment bottoms out the motivation will start to weaken.

- whatever was done by Obama by executive order, I presume will be quickly undone, they will probably have reams of documents ready to be signed on day 1.

- Hillary Clinton: in order to prosecute Trump will need to nominate a new Attorney General to the DOJ, and then ask the FBI to re-assess I guess? I don't think she will go to jail, in some countries when power changes the losers get jailed but it hasn't been the case in America, and I don't think high level politicians want it to become the case. For all practical purposes I think Clinton will continue to be above the law.

- The WALL ... boy I don't know. I will be fascinating to watch if he tries to do this. The only utility will be economic stimulus.

- Trade war: I think the American dollar will go to a lower level which will decrease imports and increase exports.

- Muslim ban: I think he will disallow visas from active conflict areas and nearby. I don't think i.e. Malaysia will be effected, or Indian muslims for example. Maybe countries that aren't functional enough to carry out a criminal background check will be disallowed.

EDIT:

Also, I don't think Trump+GOP will enact or seek to promote any racist or sexist policies, I don't think they will mount an attack on the recent marriage equality ruling. I think the following people will suffer financially:

- undocumented immigrants

- industries that depend on a close relationship with the government: the guard is changing -- if you had relationships with the Bushes and the Clintons, you've had access to the most powerful organization to ever exist in the world for the past 27 years, that may or may not continue.

This is if Trump lives all four years. All of the above doesn't apply to Pence, I think Pence could do some real damage.

No mention of ending abortion. I agree that it would be sexist and catastrophic if it happens, especially given the state of american health insurance coverage.

EDIT: from this document it looks like he plans to target undocumented immigrants who have a criminal record -- the process will probably be very disruptive, I think this is the single policy of Trump that could cause the most human misery, but it seems possible that the process could give the others a more secure status.

Deportation on day one - this will never happen. There is a large complex body of laws dealing with immigration that will not be superseded by some desire to deport people without a hearing.

Repeal Obamacare - yes this will happen is some part. We already have the news stories of the massive increase in premiums coming and that combined with a stacked, house, senate, judiciary and executive branch makes it look very very likely that the worst parts of obamacare are going to go. It's not clear wether or not some of the more popular reforms (pre-existing conditions, kids under 26) will stay as part of some other reform bill.

Renegotiate NAFTA - yes. A president that has the cost of everything on his mind combined with the lack of decorum from the Mexican government might very well trigger this. This is especially true if the Mexican government continues to behave badly towards the new government.

Bring back coal - I have news for you - coal never left. West Virginia elected a Democrat for governor but was one of the first states to elect Trump last night. Coal has never forgotten Al Gore/Bill Clinton. Last night they made the point again. I think more seriously subsidies for green energy might decrease (with the exception of ethanol with is all produced in red states).

Reduce taxes for the rich - personal income tax no, corporate taxes yes. Corporate taxes in the US are the highest in the world and Trump will work to fix that to allow companies to come back to US soil to operate.

Ban muslims - no. Trump wanted to slow or stop immigration from Syria in particular until the people are better vetted for links to terrorism. This has been simplified to 'ban muslims'. Muslim immigration will not be prevented but it might be slowed to allow for better vetting.

Prosecute Hillary Clinton - yes. Trump will appoint a justice apartment head and a FBI director that is likely to reopen the case into the emails. It's not clear what the outcome of this might be. Ultimately the truth will prevail here.

Trump is very pragmatic and he's also a seasoned reality TV personality who knows what to say in order to appeal to some of his voters' basest instincts and beliefs. As far as actual policies go, I wouldn't really expect anything too radical from him though. I guess many of his blue-collar voters will be disappointed, but then lots of others will be relieved...

It would seem with a republican congress that it would be easy. Why do you think otherwise?

Edit: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reconciliation_(United_States_...

2 - there won't be a deportation "force". undocumented/illegal immigrants aren't going to get auto-citizenship, and there may be additional requirements put on employers to verify citizenship.

3 - possible

4 - I'm not convinced Trump actually knows what countries and regions are affected by NAFTA. unlikely.

5 - sweet jesus I hope not.

6 - likely

7 - not possible. if he tries it's auto impeachment (or a vote for it anyway)

8 - also potential auto-impeachment. abuse of powers.

9 - I would like to see this happen, but the only way it could work is MASSIVE tax breaks to offset more expensive labor. It won't happen in 4 years, but some groundwork might be laid.

10 - "goes on camera and says something horribly offensive and xenophobic to leaders/citizens of a foreign country that seriously damages us": 10/10 will happen.

What can possibly go wrong?!