I think the watch will, in the long term, be a flop. Apple needs to find a real killer app for it or it is toast. I already have a $500 iPhone in my pocket or on my desk and a $5,000 computer on my desk. They are going to have to pull off a really interesting trick to justify a $500 watch that is redundant. Yes, they are selling bunches of them, but I fail to see this as a long term product unless they pull a rabbit out of a hat.

How many of you developed iPhone apps? Us? Over a dozen. How many of you are developing Apple Watch apps. Us? Zero. No interest in working for Apple for free.

Down-vote away. I know the truth hurts.

There already are killer apps. Fitness is one. The question isn't if wearables are going to be a success (they already are), but just how smart and connected we need them to be: do you choose the Fitbit or the Apple Watch? etc. It seems that most objections to smart watches are due to price and size/aesthetics, both of which are hopefully only temporary issues, rather than absolute functionality. A bit of imagination is all that's needed.

> Down-vote away. I know the truth hurts.

If you get down votes, it'll be for the attitude, not the opinion...

Nobody's going to jump me on my morning run to steal my FitBit, but they damn well are gonna jump me for my Apple Watch. I'm not going to wear my Apple Watch doing something like Crossfit where it could easily get broken but I'll happily wear my Jawbone UP because I know it can handle it. Also, fitness wearables are simply more comfortable to wear while exercising compared to the Apple Watch because the watch is bigger with a much bigger band and watchface for sweat to get trapped behind plus it has to be worn tight to the skin to capture heart rate which greatly limits range of motion.

This leads to hardware sales and non-usage.

Which makes it really hard for others to work on such a plattform.

I don't lack will power (when my wearables run out of battery I still run).

So your comment sounds way off base to me. Just to give you a perspective you may not have seen.

You have a whole industry built on wearables and fitness with millions of miles run/ridden/hiked/whatevered... That's hardly "non-usage".

Did you forget the point you were making?

If you need further convincing, look at the higher end of wearables, with Garmin, Polar, etc making specialised wearable devices, for specific sports and making a killing. Consumer-ising that space is surely a winning ticket. I mean that's essentially GoPros business model isn't it?

But yes, comments on the internet are "one person think". Good luck with the self-rationalisation you got going there.

If you're the type that doesn't have their phone on you all the time, it's better done by a lightweight, lower-cost Fitbit which start at about 60 bucks as opposed to the $350/$400 starting point of the Apple Watch.

> If you get down votes, it'll be for the attitude, not the opinion...

You missed the joke I guess. On HN almost anything negative about Apple gets you a virtual hanging more often than not. I was being sarcastic. There are a lot of people that are invested in the Apple cult to the point of being hurt by the truth. Down-voting is a way to close their eyes to pretend reality isn't there. In that world Apple's shit don't stink, even when there's plenty of it to go around.

This exact argument also applied to smartphones, yet we've seen what can happen if you put a computer in people's pockets and let people figure things out.

I'm not suggesting the watch will displace the phone (the way the phone can displace laptops for many users) but I believe there's huge scope for augmenting it.

> "Yes, they are selling bunches of them, but I fail to see this as a long term product unless they pull a rabbit out of a hat."

Selling bunches of them is enough to indicate that something will happen in this space (i.e. people are already spending their money on it). Whether this iteration or the next will be the one that nails it remains to be seen. For example, the upcoming changes to allow native watch apps (as opposed to only having the UI there) should allow developers a bit more freedom.

> Selling bunches of them is enough to indicate that something will happen in this space

I don't disagree. I am saying that THIS Apple Watch feels like a flop in the long run. They could come out with Apple Watch 2 and knock it out of the park. Or, some other company could do it.

That said, it's obvious that the majority of watches sold will be smartwatches sooner or later. After all, if you've already made up your mind on having a watch - and yes, there are applications outside of fashion and jewelry - then why not get a smartwatch? Outside of the Apple bubble, the difference in price will be negligible.

There are two open questions in this context: First, will the Apple Watch come to dominate that market? Most likely, it will go the way of the smartphone market in the medium term: small number of units sold with comparatively high profits purely for brand reasons.

Second, will there be a land rush of application development comparable to when smartphones and tablets really came into their prime? Most likely not, or to a much lesser extent, for a combination of the reasons that you mentioned and that smartwatches will basically be appendixes to smartphones, where that land rush has already happened.

- price. It is still going to be more expensive than a cheap dumb watch

- lifespan. Electronics generally won't live more than 3-5 years on average. A good watch can outlive you and your children.

- too much feature. The same way some people still buy dumb phones because they just want to phone and text, some people only want time out of their watch (recent threads about iPod sells explain that pretty well, albeit for a different product).

- fashion, as you said. Some people want to look good, and a smartwatch with a digital screen (gasp!) may be against their sense of aesthetics

Not having to charge it every day. Charging a smartphone every day is annoying enough. Charging a watch every day just isn't worth the hassle.

I think this is the best point you’ve made. If we throw every other argument out, we’re left with the simple fact that the watch follows the phone, and the market for phone software has already commoditized itself into the toilet.

iOS is a dog’s breakfast. So what’s the lure for writing watch software? That the first players in have the least zeroth chance of becoming the next unicorn, one of the few apps actually turning into a sustainable business?

There will be exceptions, but I feel safe in predicting that most successful watch apps will be free or nearly fee accessories for some other business model, like ride sharing.

“Commoditize your complements.”—Joel Spolsky

Apple is the watch. Your software is the complementary product they will inexorably commoditize.

Probably so. Many of the developers who will reject what I am saying are not, at the same time, devoting life and treasure to the development of apps for the watch. The iPhone was very different. It was a gold rush. Many made millions selling fart apps. Most --the vast majority-- lost their shirts. And, having learned their lessons they remain cautious or completely uninterested when it comes to the watch.

One of the huge angles is that of the leash to the iPhone. This is the same reason I just bought my son a stand alone GPS for his car. Google and Apple maps and nav require network connectivity. Amazingly enough I've been in places not too far from home where we can't raise WiFi or a cell connection. Your great phone-based navigation software breaks down very quickly when you can't "phone home" for map updates.

Even owned a Casio Databank.

So I don't get this first world problem of paying $500 for the convenience of not taking the phone out of the pocket.

Besides there are zero features it offers besides a mobile phone.

If I what to show off how rich I might be I'll get myself a Rolex.

I've been to Basel World before, and the "I'm rich watches" start at around 40K CHF. And they aren't even very good watches given their mechanical movements, it has nothing at all to do with functionality or features.

Besides, if price is your argument, you should look beyond Apple anyway. Their devices mostly sell by branding. There are already smartwatches that are significantly cheaper than what Apple offer, and over time, the price difference between regular watches and smart watches is going to shrink further.

Sure, watches don't last forever, but let's assume you buy a new one every ~2 years on average. Well $30/ month * 24 months = 720$ every 2 years.

Yes pulling your pocket out is an inconvenience if every time you do so it's to find out that an email or text message is spam or unimportant. Likewise seeing what meeting you have next (and where it is) is a second on the watch. About 30 seconds on the phone.

Who cares if you are going to make an Apple Watch app or not. Most developers aren't. Nor should they. Not every phone app will work on the watch and vice versa. The Watch like the iPad requires a unique experience. I look at apps like IFFT and Workflow as the style of apps that are are the future of Apple Watch.

First. Do you own one?

Beyond that. Seriously. Please. Think about what you are saying a little bit. Is the technology owning you here?

If you need to take your phone out of your pocket so often that it is a nuisance...leave it on your desk.

If you get too many notifications you are not using them correctly.

Finally, I have thirty years as CEO of multiple tech companies and have conducted business across the US and internationally. I can't remember a single instance of having a schedule so complex that it required being leashed to an electronic device to the point that taking it out of my pocket became a nuisance.

Please, let's not exaggerate reality for the love of technology. I love technology and the Apple Watch is a marvel of what can be accomplished today. That is not being disputed here.

This is about a business case for this particular device, in it's present incarnation. I don't think it exists in the long run. I think they got a lot of sales because of the love for Apple and the idea of what could be. Now that it's been out there for a while people are probably not jumping on it at a rate that will sustain it as a business as it exists today. They might be able to come up with a new design that changes things, but I think the writing is on the wall for this one.

Of course, I could be wrong.

I like my Moto 360, but I disabled notification vibrations (I have it in silent mode all the time). It is terribly annoying when you are working or are having family time and something on your wrist vibrates all the time.

About 30 seconds on the phone.

Get a phone with active display (e.g. [1]).

[1] https://www.motorola.com/us/Moto-X-Features-Active-Display/m...