The math doesn’t help Anthropic either but the market views these two companies very differently at the moment. Anthropic is seen as having momentum. Open AI is seen as having likely peaked. That makes a huge difference when pitching an IPO.

> but the market views these two companies very differently at the moment. Anthropic is seen as having momentum. Open AI is seen as having likely peaked

What are you basing this on? Both are currently doing rounds/tenders that are placing without problems.

The media treats these two differently, as do financial influencers. But I'd be careful about conflating either of them with the market.

> But I'd be careful about conflating either of them with the market.

The finance market and the market for these products are two different things. Anthropic has definitely been stealing market share to OpenAI in the past few month on many segments (be it enterprise or even consumers).

it's not just media. or rather media is reporting based on fund interests.

> media is reporting based on fund interests

Can you give an example that shows funds actually souring on OpenAI? (Like, not less enthusiastic than before. Actually souring. Selling.)

ChatGPT is the 5th most visited website in the world and gets a ridiculous amount of user data. They're going to be an advertising powerhouse.

The advertising angle is significantly overrated. Theres only so many ad dollars to go around and so every dollar they make they have to take from so other player like Google. With Google having decent AI search now for free OpenAI is already well behind here.

Users coming from Chat or Claude or the likes would be very high intent if done correctly, advertisers would pay a lot of money. I'm certain people would pull budget from Google.

But Google has chat too now plus a ton more data about users OpenAI doesn’t have. There really isn’t anything OpenAI can do that Google isn’t also already doing.

Honestly if ads start getting put into chats that service is dead to me

Useless stat without breakdown of time spent at the site and bot activity.

It will draw a non-zero number just curious people who never use ChatGPT.

And bots are exfiltrating model knowledge for the benefit of competition.

There are only so many ad dollars to go around. ChatGPT getting traffic doesn't mean they can convince ad buyers that their dollar goes further than at established players like Google and Meta. AI search is a commodity at this point, even DuckDuckGo has it.

Reddit has been one of the world's top websites for over a decade, yet they are totally irrelevant in terms of ad product market share.

Because reddit users are low quality users. Meta and Google can peak into your data and segment you to sell.

ChatGPT ads are low quality placed at the bottom barely noticed.

ChatGPT ads will get better. Meta's social userbase is drying up. Google keeps introducing and removing things from chrome to keep access to spy on you for them alone. We'll see how things pan out but in ten more years reddit ads will still be worthless.

I think a lot of money and effort is spent on advertising on reddit. It just goes to astroturfing instead of paying Reddit.

Agree but Anthropic momentum is fading too.

Open source is starting to slowly become a source of frustration for frontier labs In the discussion around value for money.

How is momentum fading when their headline product is so good it’s illegal?

I think they may have overplayed their hand so to speak. The end consequence is that their best model isn’t available right now, people are exploring alternatives, and realizing they work fine.

It’s such a fast paced and competitive industry, anyone who takes even a short break is going to have a hard time coming back from it, and that’s basically what they’ve done.

Thankfully, many tech companies have shortened parental leave to 6 weeks!

How do you grow your business when your flagship product is illegal?

easy - lobbying

Hasn’t worked for them so far

They don’t pay enough

is no longer being able to sell it to half of your market good, financially?

Expected cash flows, growth and risk.

Go ahead and incorporate that in those 3 variables... lets see what you know before I bother replying.

That is a good marketing headline, but for it to work the model has to become available again in a reasonable timeframe.

Otherwise people try other cheaper models, and they find out those models work perfectly for what they need.

Yeh local models will continue to gain performance before they can IPO

I only use free Gemini Pro to plan then scrape the log in Google Drive into local Qwen/Gemma+pi set up

I can plan and architect with Gemini on my phone or wherever and a cron job + custom JSON parser at home updates context in local model setup

> Open source is starting to slowly become a source of frustration for frontier labs In the discussion around value for money.

Ironic, considering that they got their ball rolling by taking from Open Source with neither credit nor attribution.

> Anthropic is seen as having momentum.

How can you tell that? "The Market" at the moment is the private investor market and, to my (admittedly untrained) eye, those two companies are being treated exactly the same when they raise.