Bookmark this comment because it’s going to be very relevant in a few years.

Ahh yes, the old “the president will declare martial law to remain in office” prediction. Didn’t happen when it was claimed by folks in 1992, 1999, 2008, 2012, 2016, and 2020. It also won’t happen in 2028.

You can bookmark my comment along with the one above.

Seems silly to ignore that the last date in your list had an event closer to what OP is referring to than any other year, no? Considering he was already crying election fraud in 2016 you could certainly view this as a line with upwards slope…

I’m sorry…did I miss martial law being declared in 2021? Did I miss Trump being president from 2021 through 2024?

You are considering them binary states while I’m considering it a continuous scale. I prefer my way.

My preference is reality.

Perhaps learn how to model it, then.

Alrighty then, in a few years you can test your model’s accuracy against my prediction based on history and an understanding of how our laws and civics actually work.

Ok, now who can do the toppling? What if China had done this?

I wonder if this emboldens china to do the same to Taiwan..

China gets Taiwan without any US intervention as soon as our chip foundries have been built state side. Xi is patient.

TSMC already came online in Arizona.

TSMC running stateside != "nevermind Taiwanese independence"/"US withdrawing military protection for Taiwan"

For starters, TSMC has opened facilities in Az, but these are still owned and operated from Taiwan and rely significantly on Taiwanese capability for substantial inputs to the development process in both knowledge and operational capacity.

The new wafer capacity is not a replacement for Taiwan based infrastructure, but rather an extension of those operations.

And to be blunt: If amerika were to immediately about-face on 1975's "back-to-basics" math movement and resume math theory based primary education in order to develop the foundational comprehension necessary for the materials science at|in the design level workforce, it would still be at least one generation before homegrown capacity was 'on-par' with the current Taiwanese (and Dutch) resources.

TLDR; not a concern from a rational leadership condition.

However, pretending that one TSMC plant in Az is sufficient reason to TACO and post on social media in saggy golf pants == very much a potential outcome; regardless of the absolute immediate cost in lives and material capability, and the unavoidable long term consequences both within the US and around the world caused by said capricious behaviour.

I really didn't mean to imply that one TSMC plant in AZ could replace Taiwan, nor that we should only care about semiconductor wafer output or worse to discount the desires of the Taiwanese people. Presumably, at least some large fraction of them wish to remain independent from China.

From a US strategic perspective, there are a lot of other things made in Taiwan other than just semiconductors. They make a lot of machine tools, for example, and tend to have better quality than what we can get imported from China directly. The castings are likely made in China mainland but then finished in Taiwan. You can get nearly identical machines from either source but the Taiwan-made version is generally superior.

Done what, exactly? Abduct Maduro?

Yes, for example, or forcefully remove the leader of the country of your choice.

If they had removed Maduro because he's an illegitmate autocrat funneling drugs into the US, I'd be deeply confused, considering he's on their side.

Yes, see Hong Kong. They even released a virus to do it.

Hmm, you don't see a simple connection, where China is the counterparty in this power struggle?

> Then, he suspended the next election

No, he didn't do that personally. Ukraine's constitution mandates that elections not be held during times of martial law (i.e. war)

Even if that wasn't a thing, do you think holding elections while bombs are going off is a good idea?

I think following the constitution is a good thing, even if bombs are falling. I mean, look, people are dying, and yet the country is not just hunkered down in bunkers for the last four years. Life is going on. People are getting up and going to work and coming home and eating dinner and going to bed. Surely they could also go and vote... if the constitution did not say what it says.

It just wouldn’t be possible to have a fair election when a sizeable percentage of the population is living under foreign occupation.

Under occupation, in Europe, and in the army on the frontlines.

It's a difficult thing to achieve even without Russia determined to interfere in the process.

I would agree, but Russia has shown that they're not about fair elections in their own country and they've bombed plenty of civilian targets throughout this conflict. I'd assume that Putin would crank up the notch about 10x on all fronts if he knew elections were taking place to make it impossible to have anything resembling a fair process.

You forgot to add that Ukrainian opposition leader supported suspension.

> He won the election in the most corrupt country in Europe.

He won by a landslide regardless of corruption (if there ever was one during those elections). Everyone was fed up with Poroshenko, and Zelensky was seen as a new wave, young politician who will bring change (on top of his popularity as a comedian).

> he suspended the next election and no more elections have been celebrated ever since.

By "he" you mean constitution of Ukraine?

> Then, he suspended the next election

Zelensky did not suspend elections. Ukraine's constitution prohibits the holding of elections under conditions of martial law.

"However, martial law—imposed after Russia’s full-scale invasion in February 2022 and still in place as the war continues—has prevented elections from taking place. Under Ukrainian law, elections cannot be held while martial law is in effect to ensure continuity of governance and support the nation’s defense." [1]

[1] https://www.wilsoncenter.org/blog-post/ukraines-presidential...

He closed down critical news channels.

Such as?

> Then, he suspended the next election and no more elections have been celebrated ever since.

Yes, but that may have something to do with the fact that his country was invaded and he has been at war ever since. Suspending elections for that reason is legitimate by "our" standards.

We didn't suspend elections during World War II. We had been attacked (and overseas parts had been invaded and conquered), and we were at war. Elections still went on as normal.

Even during the Civil War there were elections, even though there was fighting in some of the states that were voting.

> We [industrial superpower dwarfing whole axis combined, surrounded by ocean with no neighbors who can challenge us and unique geography that makes it literally impossible to invade at the time] didn't suspend election during World War II. We had been attacked [parts so insignificant compared to the whole that there was no reason to even consider delaying elections]...

This is the most `ShitAmericansSay` argument ever. What's next? Poland should've held elections while being pounded from both sides? Russia had "elections" during WWI and look where it ended up.

Contrary to popular belief by ameridumbs, Ukraine does not have the US constitution.

As opposed to Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin of Mother Russia, who won every single one of his extremely fair and properly done democratic elections with a landslide. 88.48 at his last democratic election! So beloved!

Zelensky has suspended elections since Russia invaded. He hasn't had a chance to be voted out, and probably will never get one.

The Ukrainian Constitution suspends elections in a State of Emergency. The State of Emergency is renewed regularly by the Ukrainian Parliament. The Ukrainian people are broadly supportive of Zelensky, who is publically open to holding elections if given the space and resources to do so. Which is a ceasefire, and some time and money.