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naishoya

Re:Patrick Stewart has died on Friday October 30, 2026 @08:16PM (#50311885)
But, would you have done any one of those things had there been a scheduled safety class before going, and had all of those things been clearly presented and then tested for? I think probably not.

I have been in the position of holding pre- and post excursion knowledge and readiness assessment sessions, which contents and protocols were rigorously designed by Principle Investigators, with external audit and multi-year review. In one location there was over a hundred years of applied practice. (Back-county mule operations since 1904 with an enviable safety record and over twenty riders on every day where not cancelled due to adverse weather or public health risks)

My personal observations include covering very specific potential hazards for backcountry, open ocean, agriculture and industrial workplace risks. They also include direct and indirect observations in the domains of corporate, personal risk, and global threat assessment, up to and including prevention of and response to K&R by state and private actors.

So, yes, I cherry picked for the comical and obvious. That list is not comprehensive or statistically balanced whole set. I do admit to confirmation bias, I'm positive that was at the lead of this flow as " admittedly anecdotal observations." And you're right, that is not what Idiocracy was representing. That is still clear and we still do agree.

My only point is that my admittedly biased observations fail to find high net worth as a positive correlation with above average IQ. I also "posit" that although the high net worth shows recent increases in TFR is substantial in some places (the US and UK from your source), there is still a high rate observable in the bottom 25% of net worth populations as seen due to earlier time of first partition and a slightly higher number of offspring per mother, and that the difference in resultant IQ in the whole population due to these effects may be well within any statistical margin for error.

So, we still agree, this is not the mechanism either causing nor preventing an Idiocracy defined change in the outcomes for the US population. There appear to be other, less (epi)genetic, reasons for the demonstrable decline in outcomes for the median populations.

~ BTW, big fan of the work in alternative bit representations.

Re:Patrick Stewart has died on Friday October 30, 2026 @11:32AM (#50305370)
I'm sorry if it seemed like I was unimpressed with any one group over the others.

My statement was that I have been not overall impressed with ANY of the groups. None of the groups was more or less likely on average to not need rescue, resuscitation, or to be refused participation due to non-compliance.

My proxy for IQ is; don't eat the sticky purple berries, don't stand on the edge of the precipice, don't try to drive across the flooded wash, don't camp in the dry streambed, don't try to pet the baby buffalo, check your shoes before you stick your feet in them in the morning, put the fire all the way out - cold, wet, and mixed is out, don't swim away from your dive buddy, don't walk up on the mule from behind, wear a hat, bring extra socks, don't drink the water from the stream, cook the bear meat thoroughly, don't put your hands in dark holes; in the forest or in the reef, clip your toenails well before the long downhill hike, spend a few extra dollars on a pair of slip on ice crampons for your tennis shoes - even though the instructions were to bring two pairs of hiking boots - wet and dry. Pack light, wear a small bell to warn off the bears, pick up your garbage - if you brought it into the wilderness you must take it back out with you,... again, DON'T STAND ON THE EDGE OF THE CLIFF, I don't care how you are going to look in the selfie, and neither will anyone else if the phone and you fall 300 feet. And, no your emotional support min-pin-poo cannot go on the week long rafting trip with us.

Does this sound like I'm over-estimating anyone's baseline IQ? You wouldn't believe the raw stupid that happens all the time. It's just not demonstrably correlated with bank balance or jewelry selection.

Re:Patrick Stewart has died on Friday October 30, 2026 @06:52AM (#50302227)
> Net worth. It's a pretty good proxy.

TLDR; I have met quite a few very high net worth individuals, their spouses and offspring. Hundreds of them, actually. I have not been impressed overall with their intellectual capacity for learning important and lifesaving knowledge in preparation for life-changing natural survival conditions which are outside of their daily routine. The same has been true at the middle and lower income distributions under similar circumstances. I am neutral about the future IQ of the population of any of their descendants, poor or rich.. There are many other factors at play.

The long version:

That has not been my admittedly anecdotal experience among high, moderate, and average net work individuals and small to large congregations of those net worth groups in North, Central, South Americas, East Asia, the Pacific Islands, the UK and Northern Europe. I haven't found any specific factors resulting in concentration of above or below average IQ individuals within any of those groups. I have traveled much; been in direct leadership positions among high net worth individuals' on board of directors, and have been in direct contact with significant groups of low net worth populations in both labor and non-profit support roles. I do confess to not having conducted specific research in the IQ to net worth among those groups, so this is just an informed opinion.

So, I will yield on the sole point IFF net worth is assumed to be a strong proxy for high IQ; then we might be headed in a smarter direction in the portions of the general population resulting from those families. I do agree with the distinction that the proposed mechanism in the film Idiocracy is not what is occurring. It does however seem apparent that due to many different mechanisms we may be in for a significantly dumber future, and on that we also agree.

It may be that among the high net worth populations; there may be a factor within the high IQ subgroup that is aware of the complex difficulty for the planet due to excessive and wasteful overconsumption and the aggregate demand that additional population stresses the situation. That subgroup may be choosing to self deselect for reproduction, and that subgroup may be among the highest fraction of IQ. It doesn't appear that this aspect was in the study you referenced, nor in any of that study's sources' research. Did I miss that component?

Re:Patrick Stewart has died on Thursday October 29, 2026 @10:17PM (#50299079)
Does that study show TFR for the highest net worth, or highest IQ?

I think it may be unclear that net worth and high education are a 1:1 proxy for IQ as many of the highest educated and highest earning individuals may be in that situation not because of raw IQ, but due to the other socioeconomic factors which lead to those conditions. Namely being born into high net worth households and being afforded extensive tutoring and supplemental education relative to their poorer peers. I accept the premise that highly educated households do correlate with high net worth, and the study's TFR findings relative to those points are interesting.

However, there is still a nonlinear relationship between high IQ and those factors, as well as between high IQ parents' offspring IQ levels. Not a few high net worth individuals choose mates based on factors distinct from having a similar or even a high IQ, if a strong correlation between genetic heritability and IQ is to be believed.

The study actually tracked high income with regards to increased TFR in the US and UK, while the correlation to high education was primarily in Sweden. This serves to weaken the connection between IQ and fertility as there are numerous high income situations which are specifically not correlated with high IQ or high education.

So, yes, having children is increasingly expensive especially in America, and wealthier people are more prolific. This does not appear, at least to my mind, to have direct bearing on observable trends in general population IQ in the short term, nor does it appear to be addressing future outcomes regarding the Idiocratic potential.

Re:Ask HN: Linux at work revoked due to MDM, how to fight? on Saturday October 24, 2026 @08:52AM (#50220795)
> I had a verbal agreement with my former manager

Yeah, these are worth exactly as much as they weigh in fractions of a short tonne.

Take this as a learning experience, and accept that al least for now, you may be in the position to afford your own Linux capable machine for personal use.

This may actually help you in the sometimes difficult task of maintaining a durable firewall between 'personal' and 'work' digital worlds. If your work machine is not even an OS you would use for personal projects, this can keep your personal productivity from creeping into the machine which is co-owned by work and their MDM vendor.

Later, when you have your own 'unicorn' idea, work won't have any claim on it being a product of employment, and the time tracking that comes with MDM can be your fortress of proof. All of your compensated time can be accounted for with the work done on the machine they own and none of your pet project will be in that time or equipment.

Also, if || when the (new) management approach reaches it's 'halt and catch fire' stage, you wont find your personal digital assets suddenly locked behind a user:pass that no longer function.

Ok, that makes some sense. It was the reform aspect of 'Spelling reform' that i missed. Having taught ESL to students where grammar and many awkward facets of English, i.e. read being pronounced 'reed' or 'red' dependent on the condition of non-past or past tense, i can see the utility of some disambiguation help. Most of my students came from the Japanese mother tongue, where spelling is both less and more involved, and indeed 'literacy' is a much more complicated concept.

The reading at "4th grade level" is at yet another level of difficulty in French if i understand correctly. That may be where some of English' complexity has an origin.

I routinely explain to students and the curious that English is less a "core language" than it is the gradual accretion of words from many languages; primarily French and Germanic during the centuries of iterative conquest of the British Isles and the intermingling of the conquerors and the conquered in the market place, with the inclusions of Latin, Greek, Norse, Celts/Gaelic and various other lexicons through various means. It makes for a rather simplistic explanation of a complicated issue, but serves to resolve the "why are none of the language rules actually followed, and sometimes there are more numerous exceptions than adherents" family of questions.

In any case, if this is what you have an intense passion to build, keep at it!

Designing equipment that will operate reliably at the conditions of this depth is arguably an order of magnitude harder than designing reliable systems that operate in orbit. The expense of lift out of earth's gravity well aside, the actual operating environment is space is clean, with low pressure differentials, lacking corrosion and bio-fouling.

An example of how difficult and complex this is can be readily observed in a 40 year long research grade power plant at NELHA near Kona, HI. The OTEC process uses warm surface seawater to evaporate a working fluid ( ammonia water mixture) using the vapor to drive an electric turbine, and then uses cold deep seawater from 2200ft (~671m) to drive the condenser loop and recirculate the working fluid. The significant difficulties are the massive heat exchangers required to make it work and all of the seawater facing systems face continual bio-fouling and corrosion problems.

They achieve a minimal efficiency and struggle to compete on cost with solar and wind. This is the state of the technology, when mechanical operations are just above sea level and the only real problems at depth are pipeline collapse due to over-accelerated flow and the aforementioned bio-fouling.

Moving those operations to a greater depth significantly changes the pressure. OTEC's pipe only has to deal with 2200 feet / 66.7 atmospheres (~980ppsi) while the wiring and enclosures of the 'lava thermal' rig only survived a few minutes of operation at 5000 feet / 151.5 atmospheres (~2227ppsi). It is illogical to expect for any durable, low cost, renewable power to be reliably operated under those conditions.

This also risks destabilizing poorly understood ecosystems with organisms whose lifespans typically exceed the span of time we have been studying them.

Where these activities occur in international waters the UN International Seafloor Authority requires multi-year environmental baseline studies. Prior to any non-research installation, requirements include biodiversity monitoring, chemical outputs and impacts. before any structural installations are authorized. Contractors are required to continually map biodiversity (microbes, unique gastropods, and specialized crabs) and to monitor chemical outputs in order to avoid permanently impacting the ecosystem's natural dynamics.

So, moving into 'Exclusive Economic Zone' water of a kingdom without rigorous international oversight is an indicator of how this company views the potential regulatory market.

The image of 'saving Tonga from diesel' is a nice greenwash, but if this was economically motivated and truly viable, then locations much closer to megawatt scale underserved growing markets with investment potential and scalar consumer demand, such as the Azores, New Zealand, or Izu Japan would be where this happens first.

So, nice toy research and fancy press publicity with the opportunity to get "It works" headlines and unlock the next Series A tranche is all I can see from here. Hard pass, full stop.

Re:Show HN: Euspell – Spelling reform: an enginnering approach on Wednesday October 21, 2026 @08:38PM (#50189583)
ok; I'll be that person:

enginnering <~ engineering conservastive <~ conservative

Normally, i just don't care about a person's spelling. In fact, in these days of LLM tokenized prose, a little random keyboard 'mahsup' can be endearing. However, proposing a spelling help product that was made with an LLM, and then either aren't using it or it doesn't work. Not a strong Show HN outing.

I like the semantic approach though. Using context to identify the words which are likely and checking those for correct spelling is novel, at least to my awareness. Perhaps look for options to 'de-Webster' the spelling as an user choice. The American version of English is not automatically the best in all cases, much like the Oxford comma rule is not always the right way to compose a long list of similar ideas within the same sentence.

Colourful and creative authors prefer to have freedom, to choose how they organise the spelling, prose, structure and composition of their verse.

Re:Bleached corals thrive within days on Sunday October 18, 2026 @10:34AM (#50141463)
That's not quite right.

While nearly half of all habitable land is used to some extent as agriculture, the total amount of land in active cultivation has actually been declining since the early 2000's and we currently abandon more farmland every year than we clear forest or convert to agriculture. Between 1992 and 2020, ~ 7% of all cropland was effectively 'abandoned' and much of the production capacity in the west is actually intentionally kept from being fully planted in order to control against overproduction of cereal crops which in the past has been justified by arguing that this control is necessary to prevent market crashes when distribution networks cannot absorb the full capacity of a harvest.

Globally, there are about a billion acres, 400ish million hectares, ~ about half the size of Australia, which sits unused according to FAO satellite and other observables datasets.

About half of the abandonment not due to cultivability at the simplest level, but rather that of transportation of the crops to market or of access to workforce (labor or equipment) to the land. Smaller, more distant crops without significant mechanization simply cannot compete at the prices possible through mechanization. With a lack of access to global niche markets and the higher prices for, say, premium organics, many successive generations of farming families have simply moved to town and left the land sitting, unused.

The other ~ half of abandoned land is because of degraded production capacity through mismanagement; either through over-application of petrochemical fertilizers instead of crop rotation, or through mechanized tilling without careful erosion management. Many farms have neither the time nor the resources (or in the case of large industrial operations the long-term financial foresight on the part of management) to engage in multi-year regenerative practices necessary to reestablish the soil mycostructure and probiotic ecosystems necessary to recover productivity.

However, if demand were to rise sufficiently and if production instead of distribution was the driving force behind food scarcity, we do indeed have arable land reserves which do not require further destruction of uncultivated wilderness to meet a growing demand.

There is actually an inverse relationship to land productivity at scale; the larger farms do extract more gross tonnage of product at lower costs of per-unit equipment and labor, but actually those operations significantly underproduce volumes of harvestable food if measured in 'per unit of land' instead of labor hours. Fields with multi-level, interconnected plant communities significantly overproduce in terms or total volume. This has been demonstrated in nearly every place on earth using very simple techniques that have varied names and different approaches to marketing, but are all very much the same thing: call it Fukuoka's "One Straw Revolution", Bill Mollison's "Permaculture", Historic Food Forests in Africa and the Decca in India, or in the Middle East "Oasis". In the Americas it still is "Three sisters" gardening. These techniques simply are not mechanized and delivering mass volumes of single commodity product into a global distribution network and that's where the difficulty and disconnect between global populations and available nutrition originates.

If there was a technological and market incentives to connect abundant and diverse harvests in rural communities with Bodegas, restaurants, and grocery store chains in the big cities without ten middle-men adding cost for the consumer without improving the product in the least, then half of the land abandonment issue could unwind and small farms could thrive, not by delivering bulk raw indistinguishable commodity to food manufacturing, but by delivering farm fresh produce to kitchens and fruit stalls.

If that were both low-cost for the consumer, and high earning for the farmer while having quality control and assured provenance then the conversation could center around making better use of even less total cropland and restoring wilderness to a near-native sustainable state.

But as it stands now, we're not short on crop land to human population ratio so much as short on effective distribution and incentives for responsible production.

/todays-soapbox

... this is kind of my area of peculiar skill and work. I've tried to steer multinational, multimillion Euro/dollar agriculture operations that produce significant volumes of global "organically produced" harvests in the direction of cooperating with rural and indigenous farming communities in conserving soil health to the benefit of all. That's been a mixed bag, so the forward momentum is with the local rice production in rural Yamagata. Same objectives, more cooperation and long term planning.

Re:Wanted to download an ISO, ended up writing a kernel exploit on Thursday October 15, 2026 @06:44PM (#50111428)
This used to surprise me, until i saw it heppened many times and it became the new normal. There has been, and continues to be a not insignificant grey market in devices manufactured and purported to be manufactured by various companies which are in fact not on the actual company books.

The consequences of global supply chains.

Anecdotal but, I knew an original designer and owner of a Cali. based manufacturer of very high end audio equipment; the kind that gets used for tier one studios and audio reproduction reference, who had his chassis designs replicated and manufactured by unlicensed vendors. Not directly competing in the audio market, but as a very recognizable shape for some with the implied quality and appearance. He tried to make even an initial contact with them, mostly to find out of they could become a new resource as he was not fully satisfied with his present chassis manufacturer, and these unlicensed lookalikes were actually very well built. (We actually used one for his home media Slimserver) But at the very first email, they completely dissolved the organizational structure and vanished like smoke, only to have the exact same grey market devices appear under another entity within a few months.

Have seen all manner of grey-market Dell, HP, Asus, Cisco, Brocade (Silkworm), Qualcom, Foxconn, Liftmaster, ... the list goes on. I believe the terms for this are, unauthorised production, white branding, or three shift production in the cases where component subcontractors actually engage in overproduction of same or very similar devices.

In regulated markets; not being proactive about these issues can become quite risky. It really has been "buyer beware" pretty much the whole time.

Re:Do dentists know what they're doing? on Thursday October 15, 2026 @01:33AM (#50099598)
Mine weren't ever going to erupt, just continue pushing laterally and causing all my front teeth to continue to crowd and overlap and then some day get infected through the gum-line against the last molar, and that might be a severe infection a few inches away from my brain-stem ... hell of a way to die in 'Timbuktu'.

They were almost done stitching me up when I came up from general anesthesia... I carry the 'red hair/viking' genes and a medical history of those kinds of medicines being less effective. So coming fully awake inverted in the chair with a surgeon tying flyfishing style knots with squeaking silk lines in my head was bit abrupt for all of us. Good thing I wasn't too combative. The anesthesiologist pushed the plunger and sent me down for the next little bit, but I still get laughs about coming to after it was all over and instead of waiting for a while in recovery "for my head to clear", just heading out of the lobby and walking across the street to my Grandmother's house where It was planned I would recuperate for a couple of days.

Re:Do dentists know what they're doing? on Thursday October 15, 2026 @01:21AM (#50099505)
it's what happens when there hasn't been regular 'twice a year' cleaning since before the dental hygenist was born. We had a laugh about that, she asked how long it had been since my last cleaning, and when i told her she laughed and said 'So, longer than I've been alive." So, it took about twice as long as the 'twice a year' variety.
Re:Do dentists know what they're doing? on Wednesday October 14, 2026 @10:02PM (#50098248)
50+, terrible at brushing and oral hygene in general. Actually lived in the jungle for years, almost like a caveman. 25+ years without a single dentist visit. Was in Thailand last spring, went to a dentistry shop in the mall as a walk-in, paid about 45 dollars for a deep cleaning and panoramic x-ray. Other than some startlingly crunky plaque in the rinse and spit cycles, zero cavities, zero need for intervention. It all comes down to the microbiome. I blame the complete lack of 'antiseptic' mouthwash and other interventions that skew the microbial populations, combined with just plain good luck.

I refuse to use antibiotic soaps either. I reserve the tools of sterility for the space in front of my laminar flow hood and the like when preparing live cultures for cheeses and brews. I lived where fluoridated water was a practice during my early years when my teeth had formed - as that's actually when the flouride has the most impact...once the teeth are built, there's little effect from consuming flouride on the enamel.

Later in late grade-school I lived in a place where fluoridated water had not happened, and so the school was doing a routine annual flouride mouth rinse-and-spit routine in the class. Was a 'conscientious objector' causing some chagrin for the teachers, they would pass out the little cup of chemical brew and start the timer, while i just stared at the paper cup and got threatened with having to write "I will ...." sentences as punishment. Even that didn't really have any impact on my actions. Adding another hashmark by my name on the blackboard as a tally of pages of meaningless repetitive sentences which I would never actually do or turn in. That had zero leverage against my test scores or passing any subject. So what if I couldn't go out to recess to sweat on a bare dirt playground with zero swings or other appeal. Fine by me.

But, by 3rd grade I already had my own two-stage steromicroscope and was acutely aware of the need for balanced microbiomes in all of life, learning about soil and aquatic microbiomes from my grandfather. So, very much not the normal kid.

All that aside, my gums could use more care, so I'm trying to be more diligent and brush daily with salt, baking soda and the tiniest bit of fennel and mint oil. Its showing some improvement.

Re:Do dentists know what they're doing? on Wednesday October 14, 2026 @08:49PM (#50097741)
Same here. Not polar, but another similar program. But when the dentist went to take them out they were practically sideways in the worst way. My dentist, who also happened to be my father's first cousin, took one look at the x-rays and referred me to a maxillo-facial surgeon. I was scheduled for general anesthetic and the Doc had to chisel them out.

Not having them out could have easily become a life threatening situation in a real short order. So, if i hadn't been removing them to comply with those rules, the teeth themselves would have enforced a removal at some unplanned time and at potentially life threatening inconvenience.

So, you <might> still have yours, but I certainly wouldn't still have mine.

So IIUC, the correct nexus is to only hire a defense lawyer, and only discuss past crimes, probably in a rhetorical context. Otherwise attorney|client privilege only extends to non-criminal actions. Ok.
> can build/pursue that doesn't get absorbed by vLLM/SGLang in few months.

That's the rub isn't it. The real risk as exposed by the latest Navier-tokes situation is that they cannot fully guarantee that math solution producing model didn't use the work-in-progress of the researchers who were interacting with the system to then beat the researchers to the published solution. Can any of us expect that these models won't use our own work-in-progress either internally or indirectly to overcome any technical 'moat' we might imagine to exist? Sure, there is a setting for "do not train" but what guarantees can exist given the demonstrated failure to constrain models from engaging in other deceptive actions on their own or offsite systems.

It would seem that where a 'moat' might still exist in code is probably exactly near to kernels or hardware, or in a business aspect which is orthogonal to the actual code. As previously stated; the understanding of the pain point for which the code is a solution, the depth of relationships within the industry or consumers who are potential users of the code or the outputs of that code, the ability to gain exclusive access to some actionable inputs which no matter what other code is generated to address the pain point or what scale of consumer awareness might arise the outputs will remain unique, are pretty much the core moats which remain going forward.

The standalone tool/product which is a learning project doesn't appear to have readiness to access two of those three moat types, so probably not much opportunity left for learning a way to the top that is durable if you're planning on building with or competing with LLM generated codebases.

I guess another kind of moat is, a tool which makes your own internal process much more manageable/controllable/effective and gives whatever else you do some kind of capability that you could not access or get for less than or equal to the total cost (tokens and opportunity costs) of making that tool. This might not be a 'real' moat by the definition you are asking about, but if it gives you more capability than others working in the same problem space, it's still a moat and so long as you manage not to expose 'how the sausage gets made' it could be yours. But maybe I'm just leaning to much in the direction of a Dark Forest theory.

Re:Creatine uptake enhances antitumor immunity on Saturday October 03, 2026 @11:19AM (#49945059)
Ruminants (cattle, sheep, and goats) get B12 from bacteria which are the primary digesting organisms in multistage stomachs, and which are absorbed in the upper (small) intestine, given feedstock with sufficient cobalt nutrient from the soil in which it was grown. Any B12 produced in human digestive tract occurs in the lower (large) intestine which is too late for absorption into the circulatory system of vitamins and nutrients. This means that what trace production may be produced in human digestion, whether it is increased or reduced by natural exposure to trace cobalt in the soil or water we consume has no effect on metabolic B12. Natural soil and water do not contain sufficient B12 producing organisms to result in this being a primary nutrient source, even in a theoretical 'stone age' level of uncleanliness.

Livestock which are fed grain and leaf forage grown from soils which are deficient in cobalt may not produce sufficient B12 for their own metabolic health and thus most commercially reared livestock will have trace cobalt compounds in the salt lick or mineral amended grain supplements.

These generally do not actually contain B12, as these compounds do not directly pass through the complex digestion of ruminants and would not actually serve the muscle growth targets of the herd, whereas trace cobalt will get those results reliably.

In turn those animals are the nutritional source of B12 for humans, as the two primary bioactive forms, methylcobalamin from cellular cytosol (the internal gel in cells) and adenosylcobalamin from mitochondria.

Vegans can reliably get non-animal sources of B12 from nutritional yeast or from manufactured sources which make the two bioactive forms through bacterial fermentation (typically Pseudomonas denitrificans and Propionibacterium freudenreichii <~ which is the Swiss cheese bubble-causing species) and then stabilized as cyanocobalamin through the addition of potassium cyanide in the presence of nitric acid and heat, which converts back into those two bioactive forms through human digestion.

If we eat meat that was raised to be healthy, then we don't need supplements to get enough B12 to be healthy. If we choose not to eat meat, then sure, supplemental sources will be important to meet metabolic needs. But, dirty roots and cloudy water are not the natural 'wild' source of B12 for humans in any reasonable imagined version of the stone age.

Re:Fedup with prison mails being returned on Saturday October 03, 2026 @04:13AM (#49942311)
This simply seems like one more way to 'tax' the incarcerated and their extended contacts, serving to further distance them form society and capture one more aspect of communication along the same lines as operating cell IMSI-catcher. While there may be arguably legitimate reasoning behind this, there is another layer of extractive commerce under the cover of that legitimate reason... see the high cost per minute for phone calls and the effective monopoly for those calls.
Exactly. It might actually be a long term benefit to humanity that memory fab production is constrained at this juncture.
> how little compute power used to be needed ...

... for what were then 'advanced' weapons capability in high-cost units produced and expended in relatively small numbers with high yield payloads.

The modern drone warfare version of expendable, high volume, high technology small units with two way communication via fibre-optic and RF jamming resistant multiple channels, and the ability to do on-device video object identification and terminal flight control when active electronic counter measures degrade operator control...

That seems like exactly the kind of gear using commodity DDR4/5 sodimm and dimm modules and literally burning them up at then end of nearly every sortie. Even if they are using much smaller units (smartphone grade RAM) it's still cooking the limited output of the global memory fab capacity, and from the fields covered in fibre-optic blankets, I think it's safe to say there is a significant volume of electronics equipment being consumed.

So yeah, AI might be ordering memory and putting it in datacenter, but eventually that material will be available for e-waste recovery (repurpose first, then recycle later). Both are competing for the same limited fab capacity.

Re:When oil prices spike, where does the money go? on Wednesday September 30, 2026 @10:32AM (#49909554)
Do those price differentials go the the vanilla farmers in Madagascar, or to the other farmers who are the sources for real vanilla; i.e. Uganda, Indonesia, PNG?

I always though that it basically was conditions reduced supply (weather and politics), purchasers of the raw products basically get all of the available production at pretty close to standard prices for what limited amount there is, farmers who dont have product get no income, farmers with product get some - maybe a little more per unit but fewer units overall, and then the raise global prices was due to the tier 1 buyers/distributors needing to cover fixed processing and distribution premiums which do not fluctuate much even when supplies are low.

So, Madagascar by virtue of overwhelming percentage of production pretty much set the availability curve, but i expect farmers pretty much get what they get for the beans they grow, within a range and that's probably not more than 2x at most. But I could be way off and the 5x price differential is perfectly proportional, 5x cost of raw bean == 5x cost of delivered extract.

I see. This further confirms what I have long observed. It's almost like there are two Japans; the hectic borderline hostile-to-general success big city, and the rest of the country where everybody generally is trying to help each other out. So I do get your point. There is plenty of room for abuse in the TITP / SSW visa, and these abuses do seem to be happening at scale where black companies contract with RSO to find and supply a stream of workers to one organization which then are subcontracted out. It's deplorable behaviour.

It isn't obvious that the SSW program itself is designed with abuse as an intended outcome. I also don't get the strong sense that these changes to the PR process, at least what actual documentation is on https://www.moj.go.jp, are going to have much real impact other than prompting those with a real long term commitment to life in Japan to look more closely at the naturalisation process and possibly motivate SSW1 workers to be more serious about upskill to SSW2.

Because SSW1 time no longer applies to the 10 year PR eligibility (which can be shorter with "contribution to Japanese society" https://www.moj.go.jp/isa/content/930003503.pdf), this makes staying at SSW1 for longer than 2-3 years a bit wasteful if the goal is PR.

Perhaps there is some room in this system for well-managed RSOs to take a more active role in helping current SSW1 employees take the necessary steps to prepare for transition to SSW2 and perhaps this kind of action is something that rural townships should look at as a mechanism to improve their local workforce options.

I wonder if there's any employers in your extended network who could gain from having access to workers already holding SSW1 visas with 2+ year remaining on visa and helping prepare those workers for SSW2 testing and retention along with long-term work contracts. It would seem to be a real opportunity for companies struggling to meet production objectives due to labor shortages without the potentially high initial capital cost of finding those workers from abroad and the cost of turnover and training that come from short term new workers.

I'm just kinda thinking out loud here; it seems to me that where there are avenues for abuse which appear to offer little recourse for the workers, then there may be an avenue to offer that recourse and in turn benefit from the ready capability and earned loyalty of those workers. Sure, your bed-pan example is a worst case job scenario, but that field of SSW is not restricted to only bed-pan level work, and surely there are companies who need quite a range of ready workforce for many tasks that would fit the same visa which can pay a decent wage for skilled labor which are not 'black companies'.

I'll try to introduce some of this into the discussions at my next informal soudan kikai. The shiyakusho team heree has been great at facilitating the network of contacts and interested parties which has enabled our current opportunities, and been very involved in every step from the moment we showed interest in living out here in the 'inaka'.

Valid point, workers must be careful what companies they choose to work for.

Abuses will exist wherever oversight is insufficient.

Planning to remain in Japan after reaching the age of 'no longer able to work' is a condition that permanent resident visa, if the proposed changes actually occur and persist, may no longer provide. Given that, then contributing to the national retirement/pension plan and preparing for naturalization would seem to be the proper route to that long term expectation of reciprocal security.

If the job pay is 'lower than a Japanese worker would accept' then that does indeed classify as abuse of the SSW1 designated rules. As they have been explained to me by legal council, SSW1 rules state explicitly that employees must receive at least as much pay as would cost for a local laborer, in order to not depress local labor values.

If this is the condition that you or persons known to you are working in, that is a reason needed for a change in employment.

A JLPT test is not typically part of the SSW2 requirement, at least for the industries I have studied the test material for, but the tests are in Japanese at about JLPT4/3ish level. Each tests specific vocabulary (the kanji portion) are very specific and one can focus on learning the necessary content which is a much lower threshold than JLPT3, but studying for that does become dependent on the work-life balance aspect. Clear communication with an earnest and fair employer is important for establishing that; and it sounds like you are having some difficulties with this side of things. That is unfortunate.

I don't have any magic tricks for not getting taken advantage of; but know that it appears your experience with the SSW1 is not necessarily typical of the program as intended, and there may be some alternatives to feeling trapped or not valued in the long term here.

Is your 登録支援機関 (tōroku shien kikan) Registered Support Organization an active participant in the necessary oversight, or have they effectively been rubber-stamping the actions that have led to this situation?

That was where I was leaning on the socialization aspect. The RSO has some responsibility in making sure SSW workers are aware of the scheduled community building events in order to facilitate socialization and acculturation - these can always be done independently, but there's an obligation to facilitate these for the RSO.

Having active opportunities to interact (again work-life balance) can be a big help in working toward fluency, which I feel should be a goal for anyone planning a long term habitation in any country. In Samoa this is fa'asamoa, "Fesili muli mai ia mua mai" when arriving follow who came first, the "When in Rome do as the Romans" and in Japanese 郷に入ってはば郷に従う go ni iteba go ni shitagau.

If there is anything you think I might be able to do to help, I am willing to try. もし手伝う事があれば遠慮なくネ

As for the SSW plan, there are two tiers to the program. Have you actually worked here on a SSW, or just heard about it by rough description?

SSW1 is a max of 5 years, non renewable. Somewhat similar and somewhat different from TITP (training) allows a path to SSW1 readiness and completion of TITP qualifies workers without testing for SSW1, SSW1 is intended to prepare workers for SSW2, which requires documented work and a test.

After 3 years employment as SSW1 (or two years if workers role includes supervisory management and is documented properly) every SSW1 worker is eligible to take a single test for SSW2. The SS2 visa is also a 5 year max but is RENEWABLE indefinitely. This isn't 'permanent residency' but a rolling work visa with it's own eligibility.

Now, if a worker cannot acquire the proficiency to pass the SW2 test before 5 years is over; then perhaps they should return, because they do not seem to be studying the job they are engaged in and not engaging in becoming more proficient in helping their employer's business grow. They may remain at the same job with the SSW2 visa, continue at the same pay, and perform the same work; so there is no motive for their employer to make obtaining the SSW2 visa difficult other than that they may regret having that employee after seeing their work ethic and output.

However the SSW1 and SSW2 visas do not lock you into a single employer. Workers are free to quit and/or find another place to work, are eligible for unemployment if your employer fires or lays you off not-for-cause, and have 90 days to get new employment in either event (quit or fired) with significant systemic assistance (HelloWork among them) for finding a new employer.

The 'specific' company aspect is for the initial application for SSW 'eligibility certificate' but workers are eligible to work for any employer from day one of their visa issuance. Yes, these SSWs are industry specific, as the tests for each type of 'specific skills' is independent and unique, but one can take additional, different industry tests while in country on one kind of SSW1 visa and then apply for 'designated activities' to engage in cross industry work, and this would allow continuation of SSW1 without moving to SSW2 by reapplication for 'eligibility' in the second industry at the end of the 5 year non-renewable SSW1. Some industries have more applicants than allowed visas, some industries never get over about 30% of the needed SSW1/2 workers.

It is not predatory, does not take advantage of workers who are diligent and studious. It certainly is not a route to work-play in a bar and doing casual part time host work. It is for serious workers in specific high need fields who may otherwise lack degrees and professional work experience which would qualify for the higher level visas.

Framing it as abusive or predatory is to not understand the system at all. The principal guardrails are actually on the applying employer, with strong requirements for a third party (Registered Support Organization) to make sure that the work conditions and terms are safe and honest, pay and compensation rates are not lower than standard for natural employees, participation in insurance, tax, retirement, and banking are proper, access to safe clean housing and other necessary social needs are met, such as Japanese language study, social integration and participation ~ neighborhood regular clean up, and local matsuri festival invites.

Sidebar - The clean up might sound like work, but is a time to meet and socialize with your neighbors and be seen as a participant who 'helps out'. There is usually so little actual trash that it's more like an Easter egg hunt than anything else - find a discarded nicotine-gum wrapper or a smashed plastic bottle if you're lucky - my last clean up day we didn't get even half of an office waste-bin worth for the whole block among 20 plus people over 45 minutes. But I do meet new people almost every time and have become 'old acquaintances' to others. In the event of an earthquake or other natural disaster, these are the people you will probably be with, so it's best to build some friendship just in case, if for no other reason.

In general, the citizens and communities all over Japan are some of the most welcoming, appreciative, and encouraging places anywhere. Yes, Ive checked. I have been to, lived in, and have family who live in or have lived in North and South America, Southeast Asia, Polynesia, Scotland (Shetland), England, Western Europe, the Middle East and Central Asia. They all seem to agree with my assessment, Japan is the nicest and most livable place of all, at least for me and my wife.

Yes there are particular difficulties and established 'why cant it be easier' aspects to life here, and even the locals will admit to consternation abut some rigid formalism, but on the whole it is a wonderful place to live and work. The further one gets from the middle of Tokyo and Osaka the gentler life is, period. Get more than half an hour by bus or car away from a Shinkansen station and it's a very different worldview, that 99.5% of foreigners never see. I highly recommend it, even if it requires learning to speak some Japanese to get by. They are so surprised by anyone who would make the effort and travel off the main path to see the place.

郷に入ってば郷に従う Go ni ireba Go ni shitagau "When in Rome, do as the Romans"

What a specious, fearmongering piece of tripe paraded as 'reporting'. One unnamed pseudonymous 'source' and another who is not in a position of risk due to her ability, albeit, reluctance to naturalize. All based on, we're worried because of political grandstanding by minority party members, and some second hand hearsay uptick in anti-immigrant sentiments around "Abdul".

Lets look at this for what it is; aljazeera making mud-pies and trying to sell them as cake.

None of the rules for work visas have changed; a proposal to reinforce financial readiness and social integration before permanent residency only leaves those working on a short term visa making regular renewals as they currently exist instead of transitioning to permanent resident visa.

Side-jobs and off-visa work continues to require formal approval for visa holders, "Designated Activities" is just some more paperwork, but in Japan the paperwork process is clearly defined and consistently followed. Foreign workers who find the system too complex or opaque need to hire a scrivener and be proactive about participating ahead of deadlines as there has never been a window for 'late' or 'overdue' paperwork.

The pay to cost-of-living margin is exceptionally good if you are not trying to outspend your neighbors; rent in most of the country equates to about 1/4 to 1/3 of a single MINIMUM WAGE full time job. And most employment for foreigners is better than minimum wage. The proposal to require above average income for permanent residency is simply to allow for more regular oversight of people working below the median in their industry, and makes sense as there have been cases of permanent resident visa holders falling below or behind on bills due to not being required to show that they have sufficient employment and not having the oversight that a visa renewal process would have provided.

Grandstanding aside, the only 'anti-foreign' sentiment statement i have encountered are in areas where foreigners have aggregated and behave outside of the safe and established norms; such as a taxi driver complaining that with the rise of outsiders he sees more jaywalking and he even stated it's not the ones who live here that make his day riskier, it's tourists. The overwhelming consensus here is that; qualified workers are scarce, the demand for help in agriculture, industry, hospitality, communications, and technology is real. The system can seem slow, but it is methodical not malicious, and the coworkers and employers are very happy to have willing help.

Re:Ask HN: Will you take the $5k from Trump? on Friday September 25, 2026 @07:31AM (#49843096)
i wonder - is there the option for people to take the 5k and then vote against the politicians supported by big T? how exactly is this buying votes plan supposed to work? Or is it: if win then pay scheme? I'm pretty disconnected from that world of grift and don't care to try and decipher raw orange into applied policy, but i do see an avenue for reverse play.
Re:Feds Target AI Critics as "Foreign Agents" on Friday September 25, 2026 @06:53AM (#49842748)
>intentionally trying to change the subject away from China

Which was kind of the point in my initial post. If this fresh account is operated in the US by a person receiving funds from a foreign government (i.e. from or on behalf of the CCP) then there is a requirement to register under the 1938 Foreign Agent Registration Act (FARA). The website for this is at : https://www.justice.gov/nsd-fara

It's not illegal for a US resident to recieve funds for lobbying, but it is illegal to do so without compliance with the appropriate regulatory oversight.

Re:Feds Target AI Critics as "Foreign Agents" on Thursday September 24, 2026 @10:20AM (#49831023)
What you wrote had no content regarding AI, regulatory capture as protection of business, nor opposition to such action as a proposed course of action.

What you wrote was: "Unless that foreign government is Israel. Then it's a crime to refuse their payments." which is false on the face of it, anti BDS laws have still not been proven to be constitutional where they have been passed or proposed in a few states, and the wiki entry shows a significant lack of 'name the US Civil or Criminal Code' in any of the references; the only source of "38 states have passed" type wording is an article in an unsourced foreign publication.

So either you are not comprehending the state of anti-BDS legislation, or do comprehend it and are intentionally being misleading. There may be some regulations which prohibit the US gov't from accepting contracts or bids from organizations which are boycotting Israeli business but that is not the same as being 'illegal to boycott' by any stretch of an overactive imagination.

Also, this entire line of conversation has ZERO BEARING on the original topic which is about a particularly egregious misbehavior on the part of the US gov't. which has echoes of 1930's Germany's use of "National Security" to restrict freedom of the press and used that same premise in increments to restrict all manner of personal freedoms to greater and greater extremes without judicial oversight. The application of this approach is broader than the scope of AI conversation as this same approach has been championed by Trump staffer with a history of writing in support of those 1930's actions. This should be concerning to anyone with a mind to prevent repetitions of nefarious and malicious historical pretexts leading to loss of freedom.

There's nothing gained by adding unrelated and incorrect statements to the thread, and my prior comment stands. Posts from a less than 1 week old account with nothing substantive, useful or true in this conversation which is behavior consistent with long-standing troll farm noise here on HN. If you're not a troll account, then stop acting exactly like one. Otherwise, shut up and go away.

Re:Feds Target AI Critics as "Foreign Agents" on Thursday September 24, 2026 @02:53AM (#49827130)
says a 6 day old account which is potentially in violation of the US statutes to post falsehood.
Slop posing as news.

These have pretty much finished roll out to locations where they will be used. There is a limited supply of these devices and installations may still be happening, but not at scale, and even if the roll out were happening at scale it would b an improvement. These devices reduce inconvenience where they are deployed.

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