every time someone says nonsense like this I ask them to take me up on it: https://polymarket.com/event/presidential-election-winner-20...

I have 100k NO on trump. it's free money if someone seriously thinks there won't be any "future administration".

of course once there's money at stake they grumble and say there probably will be an election after all <_<

Long horizon events like this on Polymarket stabilize around a % odds corresponding to time value of money. You can get 4% buying risk free CDs for that horizon.

this is not true - if you know for certaint that trump will be president through winning an election in 2028 you can make over 20X your money.

at the end of the day people don't actually believe it, which is why trump is valued little. people who aren't willing to bet with their money on things they say so absolutely aren't serious people.

> people who aren't willing to bet with their money on things they say so absolutely aren't serious people.

There are in fact people who avoid gambling on general principle, unrelated to any one particular thing they're being pressured to bet on.

I am not sure that is a useful principle. I tend to keep an umbrella around in the car regardless whether the forecast calls for rain. Do these people similarly avoid stock markets, insurance, and similar products in the risk space?

Because nothing screams you're serious more than throwing large sums of money at a shady gambling website.

people who claim to know the winning lotto numbers but never buy tickets shouldn't be taken seriously =)

You can have an opinion without financializing it.

of course - such claims just shouldn't be taken seriously.

Do you think people getting married are not serious because they fail to take out a bet on Polymarket for whether they will stay together?

your scenario here doesn't really make any sense. one you're conflating getting married with staying together. you could get married and then divorced. two, such a bet wouldn't make sense since it could easily be rigged (and indeed this is what happens with sports betting).

again, if someone says they know the winning lottery and they don't play, they're unserious. nearly impossible to rig, high payout - outcome is of interest to layperson.

The idea was that I figured you’d consider that some things are valuable in ways that don’t involve money. Unfortunately I think the conclusion here is that you actually truly believe that there is nothing that cannot be bet if a suitable market could be formed for it. Of course, I should have realized this, because by placing bets in general you are in fact taking a financial position in the concept of betting markets.

>> people who aren't willing to bet with their money on things they say so absolutely aren't serious people.

Either that, or they don’t have money to throw at dumb bets.

If Trump indeed manages to turn the country into a dictatorship I think winning money on polymarket is going to be the last thing you'll be thinking about

A more charitable explanation is that people believe in a larger set of nearly equivalent outcomes that are not captured in that market.

Some possible outcomes (I personally don't believe they are very probable), but...

There is no "call" or inaugurated at all, Trump stays on via some kind of "emergency". The market will fail to resolve to an outcome (based on what it says).

Somehow (via a normal election, or the outcome being decided in the House) one of Trumps sons becomes president.

This, I think, illustrates some of the problems with far out edge cases in prediction markets. Nailing down all of the possible outcomes exactly is hard.

Do you seriously think that polymarket, an anonymous tool where KGB can easily put some money for propaganda purposes, matters?

Can you explain what you mean by this comment?

I think that anyone paying attention knows exactly what he meant by that comment.

Trump tried to overturn an election and failed, he’s a moron but he won’t make the same mistake again. The next US elections will be rigged, if there are even elections.

It seems the poster is of the low probability belief that at some point before Nov 2028 elections will be suspended and we will move to some kind of imperial system instead.

You can take them up on polymarket.

The issue is that even if I win that bet, they’re paying me my winnings in USD, which is backed by the full faith and credit of the US Government, which has been irreparably destroyed.

If I can buy, say, low probability insurance that that will give me a squad of mercenaries and a jet to a bunker somewhere safe, I’d be far more apt to put my money where my mouth is.

It’s not a bad bet. It’s just a dumb bet. The payout doesn’t match the risk.

How big would the risk be in your view that you would loose the bet? In any risk-benefit situation, the first step is to define the probability of the risk.

The usual way for this to happen doesn’t involve suspending elections. And I’d not bet on a guy that old and infirm winning again in 2028 even if he could legally run.

We’ll see how ICE at select polling places and iffy federal-run voter role purges go in 2026. Should set the tone for how far they try to go in 2028.

I think that's a reasonable worry, but I'd encourage you to make sure you do remember this prediction, and update accordingly if they don't suppress votes or the voter suppression doesn't work. I was worried about Elon Musk's efforts to buy off a Wisconsin judicial election earlier this year and became a lot more confident in democracy when it didn't work at all.

One of the two things I mentioned is already happening, and it’ll be pretty surprising if the Republican army isn’t used for voter intimidation. Why even have it, if not for that kind of thing?

It’s not like they didn’t already use both covert and overt means to try to overturn an election, and get caught red-handed on both (I mean, one was televised live, so…) Much cleaner to put in the effort on Election Day itself.

Polling places closing early, terrible weather, computers off-line, etc., will of course drive people from voting. Seeing an ICE agent isn't going to deter a citizen from voting any more than deter people taking vacations overseas. I'd be more than happy to show ID to vote as the rest of the world does.

India can do it. They had a caste system and yet conduct fair and honest. We can do it too.

Ah to be white.

Deleted, I'm not sure what's the point of talking with people about for/against Trump at this point

Polymarkets are a place to put a dollar bet on one’s beliefs and the likelihood that belief will come true.

People sailing on as if this flip will have another standard flop is wild to me. I guess it may be self protection.