Unfortunately we seem to be living in interesting times.
So i wouldn't be surprised if they will announce first initial set of EUV test runs this year or early next year as a cherry on top of their "Made in China 2025" cake.
2. It's quite possible you are right about Chinese EUV capabilities - I don't have a clue myself as I don't work for NSA or CIA. On the other hand it's one more very big challenge in a field of big challenges and despite what the CCP says Chinese resources are very far from infinite and the clock is ticking demographically.
3. A set of EUV test runs would not impress me to be honest - a full blown production line of EUV generated chips would. The issue doesn't seem to be in doing EUV, the issue is to build systems that can sustain quality at volume.
Not really since the USA basically controls ASML. That's not even counting the USA's control over most of Europe especially the Netherlands.
China played a remarkably smart game. We let it happen.
People have been telling us for twenty years that this would happen and nobody listened until it was almost too late.
As soon as China tries to compete with the rich monopolies, the "free market" goes out of the window and becomes "free to do as we tell you".
Hence big tech cozying up to this administration, and all the attempts to ban AI regulation.
China won already, US is just trying to stop the bleeding
When China cannot compete with incumbents those protections also go up and when they can now people like you appeal to free trade (while ignoring existing protections). You are being overly charitable to one side here. Which is it? Free trade or Protectionism?
Industrial and scientific espionage is another one.
Hacking companies is one more.
But whataboutism is basically SOP for the CCP shills.
And let's not even get started on Taiwan...
You're assuming too much and, along with others here, acting like you've been hurt. "Free trade" is the mantra of Western economists and politicians since the time of Adam Smith, and it's been a ruse since then too. Read him.
> When China cannot compete with incumbents those protections also go up.
They do, but not in the erratic manner, levels or timing we're observing here. China is a party of the WTO and they haven't broken any of its agreements, nor have they used any of its emergency clauses.
> You are being overly charitable to one side here. Which is it? Free trade or Protectionism?
It's not either/or. I can tell you a third option that is worse than both of these - it's jumping from one to the other and back in an erratic manner as we are doing it now.
I could tell you something that's better than all of these too but I won't do it. I've been talking about it for many years, primarily as an alternative to free trade and I'm amazed that at this time, nobody seems to be aware of it. Like, what's the point of pointing out obvious truths over and over again with the same (lack of) result.
You should read Keynes as the primary opposing side to US during Bretton Woods, with strong support from most bankers at the time. The WTO has no answer to structural imbalances nor was ever intended to resolve such a matter.
The status quo you support is not grounded in economic literature than it is a incoherent mess that was created through political circumstances. Under a truly multilateral system of the ICU, China would have been severely disciplined years ago for its distortionary surplus actions.
Don't blame China for this, they provided what they were asked to provide, blame those who "failed to discipline them years ago". Go to the beginning of this thread where I pointed out who tried to stop the trend.
> The status quo you support is not grounded in economic literature than it is a incoherent mess that was created through political circumstances.
The status quo is what reality is today. Punishing China has nothing to do with advancing the US economy, much less when it boils down to erratic tariffs motivated by speculation and crony business relations.
> The status quo you support is not grounded in economic literature than it is a incoherent mess that was created through political circumstances.
This is so rich that I have to correct it again, the hard way:
The economic literature is an incoherent mess that was created through political circumstances.
Keynes is no exception.
The fact that you are referencing "they" means you don't actually know how the ICU and the Bancor works do you? Or any of Keynes' larger arguments regarding global macroeconomic stability.
So there will noise but this won't stop China' rise and it won't stop Europe's decline, either.