It’s like everyone just forgets Musk’s announcements that never get delivered on.
But later today I’ll be heading out in a Waymo robotaxi which will actually be here.
"""“I feel very confident predicting autonomous robo taxis for Tesla by next year. Not in all jurisdictions, because we won’t have regulatory approval everywhere. But we will have regulatory approval at least at some point next year,” Musk said toward the end of the presentation. “From our standpoint, if you fast forward a year, maybe a year in three months, but next year for sure, we will have over a million robo taxis on the road.”""" - Musk, April 2019
GP is referring to Tesla's promise to build electric semi trucks, not the pickup truck that Cybertruck is.
> And FSD is basically here which means robotaxis are basically here. Now there are just regulatory hurdles and the long tail.
AIUI, Tesla FSD is at best Level 3 automation (probably more like Level 2), which means it requires constant driver supervision to keep the car from committing suicide. That's pretty far from being "basically here", especially since Tesla seems extremely loth to accept any responsibility for FSD-related crashes.
https://www.sae.org/binaries/content/gallery/cm/content/news...
The private moon mission is off because the costumer pulled out. But Starship is still in development and is contract with NASA for a moon mission.
Of course Robotaxi isn't close to existing.
Musk announced in January that it was to launch in June, in Austin.
The semi factory will be finished late this year.
FSD gets better each month. Obviously there is massive debate if it will be “done” in 1, 2, 5, 10 or never years
Robotaxis were announced recently, the plan as announced is for them to be sold in 2026. That has not changed.
Looks like they’ll have some kind of driverless taxi service running this year with remote operators like Waymo.
Private moon mission was canned.
I think it’s pretty strange to say Musks promises never get delivered on when Tesla sells the most popular car on the planet two years running, spacex launches more to orbit than the rest of the world combined and a ton of other stuff.
Obviously he’s utterly nuts, and doesn’t deliver everything he talks about, and is very late on many things. But you have to be blind to say he never delivers anything.
He takes risks very few others are willing to do, but he is not nuts by any reasonable definition.
At one point with Tesla he was within hours of business and personal bankruptcy, before making a deal with an investor. The investor wasn't the government.
The taxpayer never assumed a risk there.
> but not profits) to the taxpayer
He pays taxes on profits like anyone else.
Musk said himself SpaceX would’ve gone bankrupt without NASA contracts. He needed those contracts because Spacex was too high of a risk at the time for private business. NASA is self-insured. This is the the way the government supports high-risk nascent industries, because they are the only institution capable of shouldering that risk.
It’s well-established that the solvency of his companies are tightly coupled, just like TFA. Further, Tesla is made competitive by subsidies for EVs and manufacturing. Not necessarily bad, but the success isn’t occurring in a free-market vacuum. When companies accepting subsidies go under, the govt doesn’t typically get that money back, at least not in full. (See the faux Solyndra “scandal”)
I know that doesn’t fit the preferred narrative of the mythical free-market iconoclast succeeding in spite of the govt, but that’s reality.
On the profit side, I should have said he gets a disproportionate amount of profit and the taxpayer gets a disproportionate amount of risk.
And he wasn't paid until he delivered, like any contract with a business. The taxpayers were never at risk. It was not a subsidy.
Yes, Tesla benefited from EV subsidies, like all the electric car makers. He'd be stupid not to take the subsidy.
> You may want to familiarize yourself with counter examples from Musk biographers, like Seth Abramson.
I read "Elon Musk" by Ashlee Vance.
I’d implore you to research more about how the CCP is administered. There are payments before any astronaut gets a ride. Meaning if the company goes out of business beforehand, the taxpayers lost that money without receiving the actual service intended. That’s also why NASA selected two CCP contractors, it distributes the risk. Maybe you think socializing risk to the taxpayer makes him a smart businessman, I just wish people would comes to terms with the fact that his wealth is inextricably linked to taxpayers. Like I said before, it’s not even necessarily a bad thing but call it what it is. I personally think the hybrid public-private arrangement works well when it’s not being abused.
Regardless of all that, the point was that Musk is not a paragon of free-market capitalism. Nothing you’ve pointed out negates that point, yet people still cling to that narrative for…reasons. I suspect it has more to do with cognitive biases than reality.
When I had the roof replaced, I had to pay half up front.
And so on. This is normal business practice.
There is nothing not free market about progress payments.
(Besides, if NASA was fronting all the money, SpaceX wouldn't have gone bankrupt if the rocket blew up. But what I've read was Musk bet the company on it not blowing up.)
I decided to check one detail. The EV subsidy came in the form of a tax credit to the buyer, it is not paid to the car manufacturer. Musk had nothing to do with it.
> I suspect it has more to do with cognitive biases than reality.
Imagining oneself as dealing in reality rather than cognitive bias is yet another cognitive bias. Everything written about Musk is subject to cognitive bias one way or another.
Businesses can leverage POs to fund operations. That’s why the NASA contract matters.
Yes, the EV subsidy goes to the buyer. The point was it makes the product more competitive at its price point. That point still stands. Besides, Tesla also benefited from multiple other taxpayer benefits. For example, they get hundreds of millions in tax incentives for their factories. Again, their profitability is propped up by taxpayers.
I’ve never claimed to be completely unbiased. However, we do have the benefit of testing out narratives with facts. The mental gymnastics needed to deny that these ventures/profits are somehow not related to taxpayers is, in a word, “nuts”
It's utterly inappropriate. First, your card is submitted and approved prior to you getting the ride. The uber is going to get that payment, you have no choice. Second, I wouldn't be surprised if the amount is put on hold with the credit card company before the ride begins - I know gas stations do this. Third, it's a trivial amount of money compared with buying a house. Fourth, the uber driver cannot operate if he hasn't already bought the car and the gas.
> That point still stands.
Musk had no control over it. The tax credit was given to the consumer. It also was for all EVs, it was not targeted at Musk.
> they get hundreds of millions in tax incentives for their factories. Again, their profitability is propped up by taxpayers.
A tax abatement is not a subsidy. A subsidy is a payment. Tax abatement is not "propped up" by other taxpayers, they did not get their taxes raised by it, and the company was not previously paying taxes for that location.
I'm curious why you (apparently) think that anyone could have done what Musk did? Why didn't you (or anyone else) get those subsidies and tax credits and contracts and create Tesla and SpaceX? I've read that Musk is an imbecile who somehow failed into being the richest entrepreneuer on Earth?
Tesla + SpaceX is worth about $1.2 trillion dollars. If the government started it with a billion dollars, consider all the taxes Tesla + SpaceX + Musk + employees + investors has paid since. Wow what a return on investment! And as a bonus, NASA gets to shoot off rockets that cost only 10% of NASA-built rockets.
C'mon, this is bordering on a disingenuous argument. You can't acknowledge the different between a service and a product. That's literally the novelty of the CCP. In general practice, you don't pay for a service until after its rendered. But not the case in the NASA contract. If your Uber doesn't show up, you'll get reimbursed whatever small hold they put on. You're only out the service. If SpaceX went belly-up, NASA isn't getting milestone payments back and they don't get their ride. They're out payment and service.
>Musk had no control over it.
Are you claiming that subsidies don't get factored into a business plan? Again, the point is government action makes the business more competitive/profitable. Subsidies to the consumer absolutely impact that. Tesla's own filing acknowledge this point. E.g., they mention regulatory credits add $2.7B to their revenue. They also mention how consumer subsidies impact consumer demand for their cars, and how tax abatements are fundamental to projected operating expenses and financial obligations. Their own statements run afoul of the narrative you're defending.
>they did not get their taxes raised by it, and the company was not previously paying taxes for that location.
Correct. We agree the taxpayers are losing an income stream. If your house was built in a location, do you think you could claim "well there was nothing here before, so not paying income taxes is of no consequence"? It's a weird take if you think the public isn't offering something of value with beneficial tax breaks. If they are offering something of value, they are helping the business. I also agree the taxpayers can benefit from it, I don’t think they have to be in conflict, just acknowledged.
>I'm curious why you (apparently) think that anyone could have done what Musk did?
I've never claimed that, you seem to border on fanboy admiration of him. I think Musk is a once in a generation entrepreneur. I also think his business MO is heavily reliant on government contracts and special treatment. Those two aren't necessarily mutually exclusive. But the latter is contradictory to free-market ideals. That's the point that you're constantly side-stepping. Worship him if you want, but also acknowledge his success is tightly coupled to governmental help.
SpaceX has done amazing things. Buit I'm going to venture we have different opinions why. IMO, t's because they get to operate under different rules. I think the main advantage that NASA is buying is a plausible way to skirt a lot of the rules (political and technical) they must abide by. CCP does not, and that's largely why they can do things differently. That's not a guarantee of success (see: Boeing) but it sets the table.
You may not realize it, but we've had this same tired discussion a while ago. At that time, I said we will see Musk's business acumen with what he does with Twitter. Apropos of TFA, that doesn't currently put him in good light. 6 months ago it was valued at $9B, and then shortly later valued at $45B so that he could essentially sell it to himself at that valuation. At the very least, that indicates a lot of uncertainty. That is a suspect valuation, but to be generous there are some differential outcomes: 1) xAI becomes profitable largely due to the synergies from the sale of Twitter/X, 2) xAI is profitable in spite of the purchase, 3) xAI does not become profitable. It will be interesting to see, and I will be interested to see if we'll ever get insight into the private company to find out. It will also be interesting to see if future success is still coupled to government/political help; I suspect that's a drug hard to break from.
He sells rockets to the government at 10% of what it would cost the government to buy them elsewhere. It's clearly Musk helping the government. Besides, Musk did not get subsidies for SpaceX nor special treatment.
> Are you claiming that subsidies don't get factored into a business plan?
No, I claimed that Musk had no control over the EV subsidy, which was given to buyers of electric cars from any company.
> acknowledge his success is tightly coupled to governmental help
Making a better, cheaper rocket is helping the government save tens of billions of dollars.
> contradictory to free-market ideals
The government keeps taking our economy farther and farther from the free market. Government taxes, subsidizes, and regulates. It isn't really possible to run a free market business in the US.
I know it's cool these days to dump on Musk and denigrate his achievements with "you didn't build that" (as if anyone else could have done it), but history will show him to be the greatest entrepreneuer the world has ever seen.
The government has subsidized other companies. None of them succeeded like Musk did. Not remotely. The idea that the government created Musk is just nonsense.
I have no issue with Musk or his success. Stop trying to frame it like that. You’re stuck in an internal narrative which is wholly different than what I have said.
SpaceX could not have succeeded without the government. Just note that the venture capital did not invest until SpaceX got government resupply contracts. My position is that the govt has a larger risk tolerance, and thus facilitates ushering in nascent industries. Something like 95% of SpaceX contracts in its early days came from the government. It’s been like this in aerospace since the Wright brothers, when the promise of an army contract turned it from a hobby to a legitimate business. That doesn’t make Musk “bad” or the government “bad” because they both operate under different constraints that can be mutually beneficial. It’s just weird to see people refuse to acknowledge something because of obvious cognitive dissonance, but humans are gonna human, I guess.
The government needed SpaceX and SpaceX needed the government. We probably disagree why, but I think I have a more nuanced understanding than yours, which comes across as dogmatic and ideological since you can’t even parse the points being made.
To the point of the actual thread, do you think the purchase of Twitter has proven to be a good business investment, outside of any govt effects? If so, why?
I don’t know the specifics of these contracts, but I very much doubt it based on my experience. That’s not how any Government development contract I’ve ever worked on has worked… There are startup payments, payments for milestones (including many at the start for various design stages before anything was built), payments at varying levels of build, etc… - often more than half (sometimes more than three quarters) of the contract value was paid before the final product was delivered.
We did some pretty cool things too (this was in defence satellite communications) but various Government customers took like 80% of the risk on the development most of our big products (obviously we had already proven our design abilities with smaller components but much smaller scale), which we would then sell to them and other Governments.
What you're describing is Lockheed, Boeing, Rockwell Collins, etc. SpaceX is the opposite--it provided NASA a service that was necessary for NASA to operate, at a fraction of the cost of competitors: https://ntrs.nasa.gov/citations/20200001093.
The fact that NASA makes interim payments on the contracts doesn't turn a purchase of services into a subsidy. "Free market" does not mean "off the shelf." It's extremely common in B2B settings for buyers to shoulder some up-front costs to develop products or services that aren't available in the market. For example, Apple made a large up-front payment to a supplier to speed up development of sapphire glass: https://www.cultofmac.com/apple-history/iphone-sapphire-glas....
Buyers take-on some risk when they do that, but that doesn't make it a subsidy. In Apple's case, they take on the risk in return for the bet that a supplier can provide them with huge volumes at a low price. In NASA's case, it took on some development risk because SpaceX promised a large reduction in launch costs.
You’re muddling points. I’m not saying the NASA contract was a subsidy. Tesla is a better example of subsidies.
No private capital was willing to contract to SpaceX until the risk was lowered. They’ve succeeded in doing so and deserve credit. However, they would have never gotten to that point without taxpayer dollars. Governments were the only institutions capable and willing of taking on that high initial risk. That point still stands. It’s odd that your stance denies that when Musk himself has admitted it.
The payoff for government was getting rockets at 10% of the cost of other rockets.
The government pays spacex to complete contracts. They pay tens of thousands of companies the same way - defence, bridges, trains, roads, etc. in fact, every government does this. It’s also worth pointing out spacex have completed those contracts much cheaper than competitors who have not delivered (ie star liner). As far as the gov giving out contracts for space stuff, spacex are literally the best option, and directly save taxpayers money.
Tesla gets subsided because the government wants to encourage EVs. Oil extraction and refining, corn, education, healthcare, defence and literally thousands of other sectors are also heavily subsidized. Again, every government in the world does this for sectors they want to encourage.
You are so hell bent on your “Musk bad” line you didn’t realize it has nothing to do with him or his companies. You are angry at how governments around the world pay for and subsidizes sectors every single day.
We agree the government supports sectors they want to encourage. See my previous comments about supporting high-risk nascent industries. That’s a different point than the one I was making, which is that support is a large part why those industries can exist during their initial high risk phase. My point is he is not a paragon of free-market capitalism because they rely on government support during high-risk stages. Both points can coexist. It also doesn’t imply I think he is “bad”.
You are trying to shoehorn a different discussion. I’ve never said Musk is bad. In fact, I’ve said he’s a once in a generation entrepreneur and that his companies have delivered wonderful things to the taxpayer. My claim is that his success is not the free-market ideal because it relies on government largesse. In your head, you appear to view it through a completely different lens because you seem to want to construct this “good vs bad” false narrative. The fact that you are bypassing the points reiterated multiple times isn’t conducive to a curious, nuanced, and thoughtful discussion
It is exactly the same for SoaceX and Boeing, other than Boeing getting way more money for the same job.
Free-market capitalism is like the Easter bunny - a nice bedtime story for children. It doesn’t exist.
I don’t know why it’s difficult to actually read and critique the point being made, rather than constant digressions into others, but it makes for boring conversation. If you have a point that SpaceX didn’t need government contracts early, then make it. I’d be curious to hear it, but I don’t think the data supports it.
You’re making out like SpaceX are doing something unique or morally wrong, when what they are doing is perfectly common, and the government couldn’t function without companies doing what spacex are doing.
Your message makes no sense. This is everyday stuff across the entire economy.
The only story Is that spacex saved the government (taxpayers) billions compared to paying Boeing who can’t even deliver.
Also show me when I say SpaceX was doing something unique or morally wrong. Was it when I said other contractors do the same? Was it when I pointed out Boeing’s shortcomings? How any when I said SpaceX has done wonderful things for the taxpayer? Or how the public-private partnership works well?
Why do you insist on ignoring all the things we seem to agree on to fabricate an argument? Is it because you are incapable of admitting sometimes the government does good things? You are tilting at windmills, my friend.
Keep it concise and to the point. Make it worthwhile.
His high-risk bets have largely been buoyed by government contracts
SpaceX wouldn’t have survived without govt intervention. I think the same can be said of Tesla to a lesser extent. That’s not bad, it’s the way things work with high-risk nascent industries.
He is batshit. He is also smart and has accomplished some impressive things. The two are not incompatible.
That's common human behavior.
> False accusations of pedophilia against people he doesn’t know?
Against a single person who had just called him "insane" on TV. Not nuts at all.
> Free speech absolutist who gleefully bans speech?
Not all speech is free speech - you cannot advocate for hits on people, for example. Besides, it's perfectly legal to censor speech on his platform. Not nuts at all. Musk has made no attempt to suppress speech on Bluesky, Facebook, Reddit, Tiktok, etc.
> Corporate acquirer who accidentally fires key people
That's not how it worked. Twitter was losing money at an astonishing rate, and he had to cut expenses immediately. It is the fastest way to determine who was actually needed and who wasn't. Then hire back the ones who were actually needed.
> makes the exact same mistake as a coup leader?
It's the only way to do it when time is critical. It's also the only way when the agencies are doing everything possible to not cooperate with DOGE.
There's been no coup. Trump was lawfully elected.
Do you ever stop and think it’s an amazing coincidence that every criticism of Musk is totally unfair?
For example, where was the disgust at the person who publicly called Musk insane first? A fair criticism would have included that. A fair person would also be aware that there is not a single person on the planet who has not called someone else a nasty name.
This is false if "etc." includes Wikipedia, on which Musk has attempted to suppress speech critical of him [1].
[1]: https://theweek.com/media/elon-musk-wikipedia-controversy
He did denounce Wikipedia, and called for people to not support it. That's not an attack on free speech.
Actually it just came out yesterday he did try to suppress free speech on Reddit.
> No disrespect.
But you disrespected me anyway :-)
Since you seem to champion him a lot, I'd really like to hear your take on his Nazi salute.
He’s also never criticized (while busy criticizing European democracies) Russia or Putin, which are obviously nazi at this point.
His point is that Elon may promise more than he delivers, but he has still delivered on quite a lot.
I'm required to supervise my car while it drives me to work, but it is by definition fully self driving, controlling all aspects of the vehicle while I sit with hands off the wheel watching
Per https://motherfrunker.ca/fsd/
[2017] The sensor hardware and compute power required for at least level 4 to level 5 autonomy has been in every Tesla produced since October of last year.
[2017] I think that [you will be able to fall asleep in a Tesla] is about two years
[2018] Probably technically be able to [self deliver Teslas to customers doors] in about a year then its up to the regulators
[2019] We expect to be feature complete in self driving this year, and we expect to be confident enough from our standpoint to say that we think people do not need to touch the wheel and can look out the window sometime probably around the second quarter of next year.
[2020] Robotaxis release/deployment... Functionality still looking good for this year. Regulatory approval is the big unknown
[2020] I am extremely confident that level five or essentially complete autonomy will happen, and I think, will happen very quickly, I think at Tesla, I feel like we are very close to level five autonomy. I think—I remain confident that we will have the basic functionality for level five autonomy complete this year, There are no fundamental challenges remaining.
[2020] I'm extremely confident that Tesla will have level five next year, extremely confident, 100%
[2021] FSD will be capable of Level 5 autonomy by the end of 2021
The project was unilaterally cancelled by the client, Yusaku Maezawa, in May 2024. Starship development had fallen significantly behind the original SpaceX aspirational date for the flight in 2023, and Maezawa's net worth had also halved since venture was announced in 2018.
And then there's the ones he did deliver on, like spectacular re-usable rockets, Starlink, Neuralink, etc.
Marques Brownlee:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UJeSWbR6W04
They are expensive though, but nice looking.
> And Tesla trucks?
https://www.dhl.com/global-en/delivered/responsibility/dhl-t...
Tesla is currently building a dedicated factory in Nevada for the Semi Truck. Production is starting end of this year and ramping up in 2027.
They issued a 127 page supporting decision on why they found it was a fair process that generated a fair price.
Want to say which part you take issue with that shows it was not capable of the judgement?
FWIW - I actually hate tesla, i just also hate the sort of drive by shitting on other fields that HN seems to do sometimes. If there are concrete reasons to believe they aren't capable, let's have that discussion. Otherwise, there's no need to denigrate others capabilities without evidence based on our feelings :)
edit: oh it's not copyleft, but specifically quid pro quo so tesla gives you their patents if you give them yours
Quid pro quo is well adjusted for the context.
> They issued a 127 page
I am sure they wrote a lot of words. But it kinda seems like they were wrong given the evidence.
Solar city shut down. The evidence shows that it was a poor acquisition.
I can just point to that huge failure that we can see right now.
Companies eventually failing does not mean they were bad deals at the time (or even a bad deal later). Not everything succeeds. The question is not "did anyone successfully predict the future" or even "was it a good thing to buy" but instead "was it a fair price and a fair deal at the time they bought it". So i have no idea why you keep bringing up what happened later as it it's relevant at all, and won't tell anyone why you think it's relevant to the past.
Given you refuse to read and cite a single thing that the judge actually got wrong and keep citing the end of solar city as if this somehow changes the past about whether it was fair deal for a fair price at the time, it's hard to believe you are really doing this in good faith, so i'm out.
(FWIW - i was the first solarcity customer in maryland, and given my experience i certainly have no love for them, but you aren't presenting any coherent argument here)
Not sure the court was capable of that judgement.