Coding is one thing that all these LLM companies crazy optimized for and yet its only marginally useful.

Dario Amodai calming yesterday that 90% of coding will be done by AI in next 3-6 months. These ppl need to be held accountable for this scam that they are brazenly and openly perpetrating. Seriously, why is no one saying anything, whats goin on. I feel disgusted by these ppl .

Dario Amodai deserves Elizabeth Holmes treatment for this fraud.

> These ppl need to be held accountable for this scam

Tech used to deliver incredible things, so people got used to bold claims becoming realities.

That has not been the case for along time now. Everything is evolving slowly step by step. But tech companies are valued based on the old infinite growth potential. So, CEOs lie to achieve that kind of valuation.

I agree that they seem to be committing fraud and they should be held accountable. But I am afraid that too much rich investors money is on this pyramid scheme. It is hard to take action when nobody in power wants to show that the emperor is naked.

It’s because they don’t use their products for actual work, have been having this experience with all AI in Microsoft products too, and in general software has a problem where the people making it don’t use their own products.

Be wary of judging an entire category by the Microsoft implementation of if.

Given the valuation of these companies the upside of "just lieing" is unfortunately high.

For example taking a step back, it's crazy that people accept the idea of "AGI" (which drives the valuation partially) at face value without any evidence.

I would be shocked if there was any accountability though.

Dario.. is one of the few people that we should actually be taking seriously... although I don't have anything other than my intuition to back this up. Maybe just Anthropic's direction, consistency, principles and vibe overall.

edit: While yes, the validity of such a drastic claim remains to be seen.

you believe AI will double human lifespan by 2027? Is this some sort of cult that i am not a part of.

Absolutely not, but I'm far removed from any position to make a statement either way. I'm guessing there is some path to having breakthroughs in bio/chem/physics that is regarded as a possibility. Of course, if even possible, would only be for very few individuals.

Even if there is the scientific breakthrough in 10 years, bureaucracy and distribution would take another 10-20 years. Even worse, IPs might make it too expensive and take 20 years more.

well..giving out exact dates is different from 'some path to breakthroughs' .

Why do you think Dario is giving out exact dates?

I could believe that 90% of code will be generated by LLMs, because it takes almost no effort to generate some common boilerplate using an LLM. It's kind of like saying that 90% of code is BSD/MIT/GPL licensed because many people compulsively fork repos on github.

This just means that a smaller percentage of code will be useful/must-have/must-read code. Kind of like the market for films and books and games -- many more get made every year, which means that many more will get ignored every year.