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Re:FBI, Dutch police disrupt 'Manipulaters' phishing gang by bluGill on Friday January 31, 2025 @03:59PM (#42891896)
Trump has a high statistical odds of dieing before the end of his term because of old age. (I doubt anyone will assassinate him, but that is also possible for any leader of a country). There will be more changes in administration - there always are.
Re:FBI, Dutch police disrupt 'Manipulaters' phishing gang by Larrikin on Friday January 31, 2025 @04:05PM (#42891979)
There is no statistical evidence of this when compared to presidents and not the general public. Seems like most presidents after World War 2 live a very long time if they are not assassinated.

https://potus.com/presidential-facts/presidents-age-at-death...

Re:FBI, Dutch police disrupt 'Manipulaters' phishing gang by bluGill on Friday January 31, 2025 @04:31PM (#42892350)
I'm not quite sure how to calculate these statistics, but as I read the charts, it looks like someone his age has about a 25% chance of dieing in the next 4 years. Even in the worst (best?) case, he has near zero change of 25 more years, which means most reading this will outlive him.
Re:FBI, Dutch police disrupt 'Manipulaters' phishing gang by prmoustache on Friday January 31, 2025 @06:36PM (#42893772)
but most aren't morbidly obese no?
Re:FBI, Dutch police disrupt 'Manipulaters' phishing gang by InitialLastName on Friday January 31, 2025 @04:35PM (#42892389)
The 4 post-WWII ex-presidents who outlived Trump circa 2028 (Bush Sr, Reagan, Ford, Carter) were all notable for their health and athleticism, which Trump isn't.
Re:FBI, Dutch police disrupt 'Manipulaters' phishing gang by rafram on Friday January 31, 2025 @08:14PM (#42894595)
I would not say that Reagan, who famously developed Alzheimer’s while in office, was notable for his health. But he was already fairly old when he took office.
Re:FBI, Dutch police disrupt 'Manipulaters' phishing gang by opo on Saturday February 01, 2025 @02:52AM (#42896677)
>famously developed Alzheimer's...

This isn't what his doctors have said.

>...In 1989, just a few months after he completed his second term as president, Reagan underwent surgery to drain a subdural hematoma caused by a fall from a horse in Mexico. Such brain injury can increase the likelihood of developing Alzheimer’s disease or perhaps even cause it.

https://hekint.org/2023/11/30/the-medical-history-of-ronald-...

After this Reagan had annual exams for signs of Alzheimers and was diagnosed in 1994.

Re:FBI, Dutch police disrupt 'Manipulaters' phishing gang by asveikau on Friday January 31, 2025 @05:08PM (#42892807)
> I doubt anyone will assassinate him, but that is also possible for any leader of a country

After the incidents during the campaign I imagine Trump is very paranoid, mostly stays safely indoors and minimizes time in public. I haven't heard anyone say so but I suspected that was one reason he had an indoor inauguration (along with the other reasons people speculated about).

Re:FBI, Dutch police disrupt 'Manipulaters' phishing gang by prmoustache on Friday January 31, 2025 @06:38PM (#42893790)
he might have more probbility to crash on the new Boeing air force one replacements he asked Musk to help speedup the delivery.
Re:FBI, Dutch police disrupt 'Manipulaters' phishing gang by TeaBrain on Saturday February 01, 2025 @12:09AM (#42895845)
The temperature itself was probably reason enough. It was the coldest inauguration since 1985 and the inauguration was held inside that year also.
Re:FBI, Dutch police disrupt 'Manipulaters' phishing gang by asveikau on Saturday February 01, 2025 @02:02AM (#42896397)
Obama's first one was basically the same - 1° F warmer. https://www.weather.gov/lwx/events_Inauguration

1985 was a full 20°F colder.

I think it is gullible to take this explanation at face value.

Re:FBI, Dutch police disrupt 'Manipulaters' phishing gang by BenjiWiebe on Saturday February 01, 2025 @02:16PM (#42901232)
Maybe after Obama's people decided that one should've been inside and any future ones at similar temperatures should be inside?
Re:FBI, Dutch police disrupt 'Manipulaters' phishing gang by IncreasePosts on Friday January 31, 2025 @05:39PM (#42893170)
Maybe from straight actuarial tables, but those don't take into account Trump's incredible wealth, immediate access to the greatest doctors in the world, nor the fact that his parents lived until 88 & 93 years old.

Edit: actually, even actuarial tables give a 78 year old a 50% chance of living another 9 years.

Re:FBI, Dutch police disrupt 'Manipulaters' phishing gang by toyg on Saturday February 01, 2025 @04:13AM (#42897049)
> immediate access to the greatest doctors

If I were one of such doctors, I'd stay the hell away. Apart from the reputational damage of helping someone who advocated for injecting bleach, there is the fact that they just won't get paid. Trump stiffs all his contractors.

I don't think he's going to die in office (which wouldn't help much anyway; if anything, it would mean "instant canonisation" and weeks of TV programs extolling his virtues). I think it's sad that this is where most of the thinking population of the US is: hoping for the old dictator to die, like some African or South American backwater.

Re:FBI, Dutch police disrupt 'Manipulaters' phishing gang by pavel_lishin on Friday January 31, 2025 @05:45PM (#42893221)
Sure. Do you think Mr. Vance has significantly different politics?
Re:FBI, Dutch police disrupt 'Manipulaters' phishing gang by dylan604 on Friday January 31, 2025 @06:12PM (#42893520)
I don't think Vance has a real sense of anything other than being a lap dog. Not all seconds make great firsts.
Re:FBI, Dutch police disrupt 'Manipulaters' phishing gang by bobxmax on Friday January 31, 2025 @07:01PM (#42893994)
Not all seconds make great seconds either.
Re:FBI, Dutch police disrupt 'Manipulaters' phishing gang by AngryData on Friday January 31, 2025 @07:39PM (#42894339)
On the other hand the president has basically medical staff on standby all the time just for them with the quickest humanly possible access to any and every medical advancement in existence.

And keeping old people limping along for as long as possible is one thing US medical care is great at, so long as they can pay for it. If it takes $1,000,000 per week to keep them alive, as long as the check clears they will move heaven and earth to keep them going, and the president effectively has infinite medical care credit through the state.