I'm not quite sure how to calculate these statistics, but as I read the charts, it looks like someone his age has about a 25% chance of dieing in the next 4 years. Even in the worst (best?) case, he has near zero change of 25 more years, which means most reading this will outlive him.

but most aren't morbidly obese no?

The 4 post-WWII ex-presidents who outlived Trump circa 2028 (Bush Sr, Reagan, Ford, Carter) were all notable for their health and athleticism, which Trump isn't.

I would not say that Reagan, who famously developed Alzheimer’s while in office, was notable for his health. But he was already fairly old when he took office.

>famously developed Alzheimer's...

This isn't what his doctors have said.

>...In 1989, just a few months after he completed his second term as president, Reagan underwent surgery to drain a subdural hematoma caused by a fall from a horse in Mexico. Such brain injury can increase the likelihood of developing Alzheimer’s disease or perhaps even cause it.

https://hekint.org/2023/11/30/the-medical-history-of-ronald-...

After this Reagan had annual exams for signs of Alzheimers and was diagnosed in 1994.