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Re:Former President Trump is projected to win the presidency by lancebeet on Wednesday November 06, 2024 @04:19AM (#42058484)
It's interesting how bad the democrats seem to be at the game of winning elections. They continuously seem to pick bad candidates and poor strategies resulting in them losing the election when they seem to have had the general conditions for winning. This time, the elephant in the room is of course the late ousting of Joe Biden, but there were similar issues that (in hindsight at least) were obvious in the Clinton 2016 campaign. This pattern can be seen in other countries as well, where it's clear that one group knows how to play the game while other groups don't, but it's surprising to me that a massive organization like the democratic party wouldn't have streamlined this process.

It would be interesting to hear from someone more familiar with the inner workings of the democratic party why this is. I.e., if it's a cultural issue in the party, if it's economical, or if my view on this is completely off.

Re:Former President Trump is projected to win the presidency by Prbeek on Wednesday November 06, 2024 @04:35AM (#42058665)
"interesting how bad the democrats seem to be at the game of winning elections" Since 1992, haven't democrats had power for over 20 years as opposed to GOP's 12 ?
Re:Former President Trump is projected to win the presidency by j-krieger on Wednesday November 06, 2024 @04:49AM (#42058840)
Yea, but the game's changed. The Republican Party has figured out how to rally millions behind charismatic candidates. I wouldn't be surprised if we were in for a couple more years of Republican leadership.
Re:Former President Trump is projected to win the presidency by vdvsvwvwvwvwv on Wednesday November 06, 2024 @06:39AM (#42060464)
A charismatic candidate figured out how to hijack the Republican party more like. Who is the other charismatic candidate up their sleeve?
Re:Former President Trump is projected to win the presidency by StrauXX on Wednesday November 06, 2024 @06:57AM (#42060720)
Ron DeSantis comes to mind
Re:Former President Trump is projected to win the presidency by seanw444 on Wednesday November 06, 2024 @12:18PM (#42065620)
I wouldn't say charismatic, but he's solid. I think people mistake charismatic for blunt. Trump is more blunt than he is charismatic. That makes him appear like less of an NPC compared to other politicians, and people actually like that.
Re:Former President Trump is projected to win the presidency by EricDeb on Wednesday November 06, 2024 @05:11AM (#42059221)
it remains to be seen whether they can find the next trump hes unique
Re:Former President Trump is projected to win the presidency by rpmisms on Wednesday November 06, 2024 @12:56PM (#42066316)
JD Vance is extremely likeable, and much less polarizing than Trump. The "weird" attack on him died the moment people heard him speak.
Re:Former President Trump is projected to win the presidency by some-guy on Wednesday November 06, 2024 @02:07PM (#42067584)
I wouldn't call him "much less" polarizing than Trump, he still is more unfavored than favored: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/favorability/jd-v...
Re:Former President Trump is projected to win the presidency by meowster on Wednesday November 06, 2024 @05:33PM (#42070588)
Is that just due to his association with Trump?
Re:Former President Trump is projected to win the presidency by rpmisms on Thursday November 07, 2024 @06:27PM (#42082305)
I would. Unfavored is single-axis. He is more moderate and more likeable, which does not show up on your graph.
Re:Former President Trump is projected to win the presidency by theshrike79 on Wednesday November 06, 2024 @05:05AM (#42059112)
Trump literally said "you won't have to vote again".

And if the Project 2025 plan works as they planned it, that's the truth. America will become a single party state and that won't change without a civil war.

They will stack the courts and every appointable position with pro-Trump (not Republican) people who will make sure every election goes their way in the future.

Re:Former President Trump is projected to win the presidency by user90131313 on Wednesday November 06, 2024 @07:25AM (#42061113)
Oh people already say civil war? lol.
Re:Former President Trump is projected to win the presidency by theshrike79 on Wednesday November 06, 2024 @08:11AM (#42061750)
Nah, nobody is saying it, and it's not happening because the party with all the gun-nuts and survivalists won.

I personally can't see any other way out unless Team Donald messes up badly enough to make their own people shun them.

Re:Former President Trump is projected to win the presidency by meowster on Wednesday November 06, 2024 @05:35PM (#42070603)
People won't have to vote for him again because he can't be voted for again due to the two-term-limit.

!RemindMe in four years

Re:Former President Trump is projected to win the presidency by gitaarik on Wednesday November 06, 2024 @08:49PM (#42072408)
If that's possible, first of all why/how, and second, why would the Democrats not do this?
Re:Former President Trump is projected to win the presidency by Cthulhu_ on Wednesday November 06, 2024 @05:02AM (#42059048)
Charismatic or populist? Same thing in effect, but the latter has a bit more weight / context to politics.

Also if they're having their way, they will break the current system; Trump has said people would never need to vote again if he wins, and Project 2025 aims to give much more power to the president (autocracy): https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Project_2025

Re:Former President Trump is projected to win the presidency by Prbeek on Wednesday November 06, 2024 @05:34AM (#42059574)
Given what democrats stand for, you don't even have to be charismatic to push them into a corner. Any candidate who will shout anti trans anti illegal immigrantion talking points will always carry the day
Re:Former President Trump is projected to win the presidency by ericmcer on Wednesday November 06, 2024 @10:56AM (#42064232)
You specifically chose a range of dates to make this as dramatic as possible. Could easily say GOP has 24 to 20 since 1980, or 16 to 12 since 2000, or 8 to 4 since 2016.
Re:Former President Trump is projected to win the presidency by sanderjd on Wednesday November 06, 2024 @11:14AM (#42064511)
Doesn't this just demonstrate that the parties have both been very competitive in the contemporary era?
Re:Former President Trump is projected to win the presidency by kelnos on Wednesday November 06, 2024 @11:44AM (#42065017)
It does, but that doesn't seem to be the argument the commenter upthread was making.
Re:Former President Trump is projected to win the presidency by sanderjd on Wednesday November 06, 2024 @11:47AM (#42065068)
Agreed.
Re:Former President Trump is projected to win the presidency by walthamstow on Wednesday November 06, 2024 @04:50AM (#42058865)
They regularly win presidential elections by the most obvious definition, the popular vote, but lose them on the EC, which is what actually counts.

The fact remains that more Americans vote Democratic than vote Republican, those votes are just badly distributed for the EC system.

Re:Former President Trump is projected to win the presidency by svara on Wednesday November 06, 2024 @04:52AM (#42058890)
It remains to be seen whether that will be true this time around.
Re:Former President Trump is projected to win the presidency by walthamstow on Wednesday November 06, 2024 @04:57AM (#42058970)
Sure, but it's true of 7 of the last 8 elections.
Re:Former President Trump is projected to win the presidency by oaththrowaway on Wednesday November 06, 2024 @04:21PM (#42069600)
If elections were decided by popular vote campaigns would run differently though
Re:Former President Trump is projected to win the presidency by samatman on Thursday November 07, 2024 @03:49PM (#42080825)
I would say that the most obvious definition of "win Presidential elections" is winning Presidential elections.
Re:Former President Trump is projected to win the presidency by xyzsparetimexyz on Wednesday November 06, 2024 @04:36AM (#42058670)
My view since 2016 has been that winning elections in the US is about telling a good story. Whether you're trueful or not doesn't really matter as long as people believe it.

Trump's story is pretty ridiculous, there's no way that his plans on how to fix the economy or the border or the whole department of efficiency thing work anywhere close to as well as he says. Regardless, his demographic believes it.

Kamala's story was a lot weaker, involved a ton of hard truths and concessions about things that people in her base care about such as Gaza. Additionally her story on the border was mostly the same thing as Trump's. If you like the border story, why not go for the guy pushing it harder?

Obama had a pretty good story in 2008 (the whole hope thing). Dems need to get back to that.

Re:Former President Trump is projected to win the presidency by bertjk on Wednesday November 06, 2024 @05:16AM (#42059299)
It would have been pretty silly for Harris to campaign on a Hope and Change™ platform, since that would imply she is doing a very poor job as incumbent.
Re:Former President Trump is projected to win the presidency by xyzsparetimexyz on Wednesday November 06, 2024 @05:51AM (#42059812)
Well she lost anyway. Bidens policies were generally unpopular, it would have made sense for her to distance herself from them.
Re:Former President Trump is projected to win the presidency by msanlop on Thursday November 07, 2024 @09:13AM (#42076802)
Well Trump is still running on Making America Great Again after having been president
Re:Former President Trump is projected to win the presidency by EricDeb on Wednesday November 06, 2024 @05:12AM (#42059231)
great point I agree
Re:Former President Trump is projected to win the presidency by zimpenfish on Wednesday November 06, 2024 @04:27AM (#42058567)
The Democrats are somewhat hampered by their focus on facts and rationality ("play fair") rather than spouting bullshit, conspiracy theories, and whatever bigotry is currently hot ("win at all costs").
Re:Former President Trump is projected to win the presidency by SpicyLemonZest on Wednesday November 06, 2024 @04:54AM (#42058921)
Unironically yes. You have to meet the median voter where they're at, even if you find some of their positions dumb or bigoted. That's why Obama spent the 2008 election cycle pretending to be opposed to gay marriage.

The party has evolved an idea that you can do away with those kind of dirty political shenanigans, and construct a rational fact-based proof that will leave voters no choice but to support you, and I think that pretty clearly doesn't work.

Re:Former President Trump is projected to win the presidency by j-krieger on Wednesday November 06, 2024 @04:49AM (#42058848)
> ("play fair")

Which is why they forced an unpopular, unelected candidate? I don't see it.

Re:Former President Trump is projected to win the presidency by ejstronge on Wednesday November 06, 2024 @05:06AM (#42059125)
Within the contexts of their written rules…

And maybe you’ve forgotten how the RNC rules were changed to support their candidate?

Re:Former President Trump is projected to win the presidency by j-krieger on Wednesday November 06, 2024 @05:26AM (#42059443)
> Within the contexts of their written rules…

Well these rules surely benefitted them.

Re:Former President Trump is projected to win the presidency by rightbyte on Wednesday November 06, 2024 @05:13AM (#42059264)
It is some sort of tribalism. Believers can't see it. E.g. we gotta remember that people were gaslighting eachother into pretending Biden is not what could charitably be described as about to be senile.

Refusing to see one self as part of the problem, fundamentally.

Re:Former President Trump is projected to win the presidency by Cthulhu_ on Wednesday November 06, 2024 @05:03AM (#42059071)
They planned poorly with their candidacy; Biden and Harris were the obvious candidates being president and vice-president, respectively, but Biden was too old and they couldn't find a different candidate that wasn't as well known as Harris quick enough.

That said, the Republicans would have the same problem if Trump dropped out or if that bullet didn't miss.

Re:Former President Trump is projected to win the presidency by komali2 on Wednesday November 06, 2024 @04:36AM (#42058676)
Also by the fact that their unwillingness to turn on their capital sponsors, who don't really care whose in power and whose needs are ostensibly better met by republicans (so long as republicans don't start a trade war...)

Dems will continue to make the mistake of coasting deeper into the right wing, picking up 0 voters in doing so (why would I vote for a "tough on immigration" candidate when I can vote for the one who gleefully promises to deport all the browns?), meanwhile disenfranchising any left wing voters left in the USA and creating no new left wing voter bloc by presenting a coherent alternative to the reactionaries.

The same mistake is being made by neo liberal parties across the world.

Re:Former President Trump is projected to win the presidency by poincaredisk on Wednesday November 06, 2024 @05:04AM (#42059080)
>why would I vote for a "tough on immigration" candidate when I can vote for the one who gleefully promises to deport all the browns?

I'm always surprised by how bipolar US politics is. There's no place for nuance or third options, it's always one or second extreme. In this case, to answer your question, maybe you want to limit an influx of new people into your country (for ideological, or economical, or whatever reasons) but don't want a full on ethnic cleansing. That's OK, people don't have to only hold extreme opinions.

Re:Former President Trump is projected to win the presidency by a1j9o94 on Wednesday November 06, 2024 @05:57AM (#42059900)
How is ideological not wanting some level ethnic cleansing?
Re:Former President Trump is projected to win the presidency by komali2 on Wednesday November 06, 2024 @05:09AM (#42059181)
> In this case, to answer your question, maybe you want to limit an influx of new people into your country (for ideological, or economical, or whatever reasons) but don't want a full on ethnic cleansing.

As this election shows, then, you would vote for Trump, who is "better on immigration." You would tell yourself, as many Trump supporters demonstrate in interviews, that "he wouldn't actually do that."

Re:Former President Trump is projected to win the presidency by lifty on Wednesday November 06, 2024 @05:27AM (#42059454)
Did Trump say that he will "deport all brown people"? Or that he will do a "full ethnic cleansing"?
Re:Former President Trump is projected to win the presidency by a1j9o94 on Wednesday November 06, 2024 @06:01AM (#42059950)
If you're looking for a quote of him saying that word for word, no. But it is not an unreasonable interpretation of the things he has said he wants to do. Especially when he's used language saying immigrants are "poisoning the blood of our country" and makes up lies about immigrants eating pets.

https://www.reuters.com/world/us/inside-trumps-plan-mass-dep...

Re:Former President Trump is projected to win the presidency by lifty on Wednesday November 06, 2024 @07:03AM (#42060802)
It sounds to me that this is crass exaggeration and one of the many reasons why there is such a big divide between supporters of both factions. The whole exaggerated narrative and associations to nazism is definitely off putting.
Re:Former President Trump is projected to win the presidency by tzs on Wednesday November 06, 2024 @08:05AM (#42061666)
You don't see any similarity between immigrants are "poisoning the blood of our country" (from Trump) and "Look at the ravages from which our people are suffering daily as a result of being contaminated with Jewish blood" (from James Murphy's English translation of Mein Kampf?
Re:Former President Trump is projected to win the presidency by komali2 on Wednesday November 06, 2024 @07:20AM (#42061051)
I understand you think people are exaggerating. You probably roll your eyes when people say Trump is a fascist, I imagine?

Can I ask - let's say before 2028 the democrat party gets tea partied and gets a genuine fascist candidate. What would that candidate say? What would their policies be? Can you do the same thought experiment for the Republican party? Or do you, unfairly, believe it's simply impossible for one, or the other, party to become genuinely fascistic? Perhaps you even believe fascism was permanently defeated when Mussolini was hanged? I would admire such an optimistic view!

Just in case you're genuinely curious why people say these things, it's not like we're all just making it up. Trump's rhetoric simply, to one who studies history, sounds very similar to Hitler's. It doesn't mean he's as bad as Hitler, it just means he talks like Hitler talked.

https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2024/10/trump-a...

As for hitlerian policy, there is simply no way to deport the millions he has promised to deport that doesn't involve roundups, trains, and concentration camps. It's a physical impossibility to achieve otherwise. Do you disagree? Will he not follow through on his campaign promise to deport every undocumented immigrant?

Re:Former President Trump is projected to win the presidency by SV_BubbleTime on Wednesday November 06, 2024 @10:02AM (#42063377)
>You probably roll your eyes when people say Trump is a fascist, I imagine?

Not really, I don’t even give it that energy anymore.

I just move on to the next lunatic overreacting and stomping their feet.

The majority of Americans are tired of “everyone I don’t like is a fascist”. You have four years to learn that I guess.

Re:Former President Trump is projected to win the presidency by komali2 on Wednesday November 06, 2024 @10:20AM (#42063664)
I see you're unwilling to engage with the topic, though I try to in good faith. This makes me sad and frustrated. The key thing about British and American political discourse seems to be a disengagement from political education and reality. The reactionaries are actually "moderates," the guy speaking eerily similar to passages of mein Kampf is not hitlerian, center-right are actually communists, etc.
Re:Former President Trump is projected to win the presidency by SV_BubbleTime on Thursday November 07, 2024 @10:03AM (#42077232)
Yes, that is the point. I am u willing to engage with the lunatics that call Trump a fascist. You are either stomping your feet like a child, or you do not understand what words mean.

Don’t be a clown and then come to me about “good faith”.

Re:Former President Trump is projected to win the presidency by komali2 on Friday November 08, 2024 @10:34PM (#42092358)
You've called me a lunatic, a child, and a clown.

Of the two of us which is more obviously unserious about our positions? Which is more able to speak clearly about them?

If you can't comprehend political analysis, why pretend to understand it? Just say you like the guy and if that makes you a fascist then you like fascism. It seems like you have a vague notion of what facism means and that it's bad - but the same people that you're calling a clown, a child, a lunatic, are the people that define words like "fascism" and imply it's bad. Why listen to us in one case and not the other?

Re:Former President Trump is projected to win the presidency by a1j9o94 on Wednesday November 06, 2024 @09:01AM (#42062396)
I didn't say anything about Nazism in my comment.

Those are words Trump has used. He said the eating pets thing during the debate.

Re:Former President Trump is projected to win the presidency by kelnos on Wednesday November 06, 2024 @11:49AM (#42065101)
What, and Trump repeatedly uttering Nazi rhetoric isn't off putting?

It's not exaggerated. These are literally things he has said, word for word, over and over.

Re:Former President Trump is projected to win the presidency by kelnos on Wednesday November 06, 2024 @11:48AM (#42065074)
> ... but don't want a full on ethnic cleansing

That's what Trump's circle wants, though. They want to deport 25M immigrants. Generously, the number of people here illegally is only half that. They don't care if people here legally get caught up in it and deported as well.

Deporting even a couple million people will require mass raids, round-ups, and the construction of concentration camps. It is physically impossible to deport that many people quickly or quietly or efficiently.

They're afraid of losing the white majority, plain and simple. The sad thing is so many non-white people don't see this and voted for him.

Re:Former President Trump is projected to win the presidency by DiscourseFan on Wednesday November 06, 2024 @04:58AM (#42058981)
Good thing they'll all cease to exist very soon.
Re:Former President Trump is projected to win the presidency by throw_m239339 on Wednesday November 06, 2024 @05:08AM (#42059155)
> The Democrats are somewhat hampered by their focus on facts and rationality ("play fair") rather than spouting bullshit, conspiracy theories, and whatever bigotry is currently hot ("win at all costs").

"play fair"? the democrats used every legal trick they could to get rid of Trump. The dems barely had a primary...

"Project 2025" or whatever it is called? a fucking unhinged conspiracy theory.

spouting bullshit? who's calling the other camp fascist and nazi on cable TV?

Re:Former President Trump is projected to win the presidency by zimpenfish on Wednesday November 06, 2024 @05:18AM (#42059330)
> "Project 2025" or whatever it is called? a fucking unhinged conspiracy theory.

How is that a conspiracy theory? It literally exists and was created by Trump loyalists.

> who's calling the other camp fascist and nazi on cable TV?

But that's not bullshit. Trump is following the fascist playbook fairly closely (as agreed by experts in fascist history).

Re:Former President Trump is projected to win the presidency by ks2048 on Wednesday November 06, 2024 @09:44AM (#42063039)
Who's calling Trump a fascist? For one, John Kelly, the right-wing Marine General, Trump's former chief of staff.

"Project 2025" may be unhinged, but in what sense is it a conspiracy theory? It's right out in the open and produced by one of the most prominent conservative think tanks.

Re:Former President Trump is projected to win the presidency by itomato on Wednesday November 06, 2024 @05:24AM (#42059418)
There is no Democratic Power Play.

There is not the same opportunity to exploit human weaknesses for Gain.

That’s the issue. When Dems control the amygdala they might have a shot.

Re:Former President Trump is projected to win the presidency by 23B1 on Wednesday November 06, 2024 @05:08AM (#42059168)
Impossible to get a group of people that large to behave strategically.

So you're asking the wrong questions.

What about the democrats ideology is unpopular? Because that is what people are voting on, not strategy.

Re:Former President Trump is projected to win the presidency by corpMaverick on Wednesday November 06, 2024 @06:46AM (#42060565)
There is the LGBT. Specially the T part. The right thing is to do is support their rights, and it is very hard not to do the right thing when you know what the right thing is. However, the republicans have weaponized it against the democrats. They call them radical left and they campaign saying things like the want to convert your sons in girls and other awful things. It is an imposible choice because it can cost you the election.
Re:Former President Trump is projected to win the presidency by mnau on Wednesday November 06, 2024 @12:04PM (#42065370)
Except both sides disagree on the "right thing."

It's same for both sides. Pro-life stance cost them a lot of votes and could easily cost them election.

Re:Former President Trump is projected to win the presidency by neuralzen on Wednesday November 06, 2024 @05:34AM (#42059562)
I think it is because people who think or say "what about me?" hear "what about me?" from others as if it's support of their own view, when really their core issues could be totally different. "Yeah, what about us?"

As opposed to "we need to help everyone, especially highly victimized groups". And then people infight over which groups require more attention vs everyone else.

Re:Former President Trump is projected to win the presidency by bantunes on Wednesday November 06, 2024 @06:03AM (#42059982)
The Dems exist to give you an illusion of choice. This has gone down exactly as planned, or why do you think rich donors play both sides? Do you really think the Dems are this naive and keep messing up without it being on purpose?

The opinion makers know if it wasn't this close there'd be visible backlash.

Re:Former President Trump is projected to win the presidency by SV_BubbleTime on Wednesday November 06, 2024 @10:05AM (#42063420)
While I agree there is a UniParty, I also assert that Trump is not in it.

If you think Trump, Vance, Vivek, Tulsi, RFK and the just the same but newer versions of Trump, Cheney, Rove, McConnell, Romney, McCain…

Well… I guess we have four more years to see about that.

Re:Former President Trump is projected to win the presidency by _ink_ on Wednesday November 06, 2024 @05:52AM (#42059830)
The argument of the GOP was, Trump is better because the inflation was lower during his term. How are you supposed to counter this?
Re:Former President Trump is projected to win the presidency by kelnos on Wednesday November 06, 2024 @11:56AM (#42065223)
Right, and economics as a field is difficult to understand for most people.

Presidents can't in reality take all that much credit or blame for the economy. A lot of it is out of their hands, and many economic shifts take longer than a presidential term to play out. But of course presidents will try, and succeed, because most people don't understand this.

On top of that, the GOP complains about how much money Biden "printed" during the pandemic, but Trump did his fair share of that in the first year of it as well. They just make dishonest arguments.

I really don't know how you counter this.

Re:Former President Trump is projected to win the presidency by andrewclunn on Wednesday November 06, 2024 @05:15AM (#42059280)
What I always find interesting is how Democrats insist their failure is due to a lack of sound strategy. That is of course a strategy in and of itself to NEVER admit that it might be a refutation of their policies or (gasp) their values. Telling yourself you just lost because you didn't "play the game" is a cope. It serves its purpose though, as it allows ardent followers to avoid actual self reflection.
Re:Former President Trump is projected to win the presidency by a1j9o94 on Wednesday November 06, 2024 @05:54AM (#42059859)
Agree. American's hate out groups and want to punish them. This just shows who people really are.
Re:Former President Trump is projected to win the presidency by sanderjd on Wednesday November 06, 2024 @11:12AM (#42064474)
I don't think "have had the general conditions for winning" is at all accurate this time around. It was clear ahead of time, and much ink was spilled on it, but it's even more clear in hindsight that this cycle was always going to be a giant uphill battle. Incumbent parties all over the world have been and are having the same issue. We're all still going through a hangover from the pandemic.
Re:Former President Trump is projected to win the presidency by greatpatton on Wednesday November 06, 2024 @01:19PM (#42066709)
The Republican party is also flipping seats in the Senate and the House, yet you seem focused on Harris. It's not that people are voting for other Democratic candidates, the country is simply becoming more conservative as people leaning on left are simply not voting.
Re:Former President Trump is projected to win the presidency by bell-cot on Wednesday November 06, 2024 @03:01PM (#42068438)
My impression is that the current-day Dem's are, in "actions speak louder than words" terms, simply not all that interested in winning elections. Stuff like not bothering to do even the most basic of opposition research on George Santos ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/George_Santos ). Not carefully checking that Biden's marbles were all still there 12+ months before the election. Their slow and half-hearted (at best) response to the RealPage ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/RealPage ) rent-jacking scandal. Etc., etc.