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Re:Money Pours into New Fabs and Facilities by shiroiuma on Tuesday January 09, 2024 @01:47AM (#38923166)
>My local hacker space is struggling to keep its doors open. All my local electronics shops (in the Bay Area!) have closed down. The small independent hardware stores are closing down too.

I think a lot of this is just because the rent is too damn high. How can a local shop expect to compete against online sellers who don't have nearly as much overhead? Here in Japan, we don't have this problem so much: there are tons of little mom-n-pop shops all over the place. But many factors like rent and zoning help make it viable for small businesses to stay afloat, that wouldn't be able to in America. Here, a business can exist in a 20 m^2 space on the 5th floor of some building that has no parking at all; that's basically illegal in America. I imagine some things like that are similar in Shenzhen.

>Bringing chip fabs back is good.

It sounds like a good idea, but throwing money at the problem isn't going to magically make a skilled workforce appear that can operate these fabs.

Re:Money Pours into New Fabs and Facilities by TaylorAlexander on Tuesday January 09, 2024 @02:04AM (#38923272)
Oh yeah, parking minimums are a disaster for many reasons, as is the endless acquisition of property by private equity firms. I currently need about 2000 square feet of industrial space (plasma cutting, welding, work benches, and a small office) and its very hard to find such a small spot! Literally the space in Oakland I previously would have used, American Steel, was bought by a private equity firm, all the small tenants were kicked out, and now they rent 20,000 square feet at a time to big venture capital funded companies:

https://48hills.org/2022/04/american-steel-burning-man-artis...

EDIT: Fun fact, I did approach the building, got the manager's number from someone, and called her. When I said I needed 2000 square feet she actually laughed, said "we typically rent out 20,000 square feet or more", said she would "try to find me something" and then never called me back.

Re:Money Pours into New Fabs and Facilities by infthi on Tuesday January 09, 2024 @03:42AM (#38923786)
if there is a demand for 200sqm space - why wont someone rent 2000 sqm and subrent?
Re:Money Pours into New Fabs and Facilities by zo1 on Tuesday January 09, 2024 @04:22AM (#38923997)
Here's my low-effort snarky response to your question: Pesky Laws, ordinances, labor rules, and MBAs with fancy graphs that say something is "unprofitable".
Re:Money Pours into New Fabs and Facilities by shiroiuma on Tuesday January 09, 2024 @04:10AM (#38923922)
Because that's extra work and risk for a small return, plus local ordinances might not even allow it, or would make it difficult. Being a commercial landlord isn't that easy. And there might be "demand", but not at the prices being offered.
Re:Money Pours into New Fabs and Facilities by katbyte on Tuesday January 09, 2024 @10:27AM (#38927208)
As with many things “not profitable enough” is a huge detriment to society and a huge flaw with unchecked capitalism when so much wealth accumulates at the top
Re:Money Pours into New Fabs and Facilities by shiroiuma on Tuesday January 09, 2024 @11:31PM (#38936194)
Sure, but what are you going to do about it when most of your voters keep voting for policies that result in this?
Re:Money Pours into New Fabs and Facilities by mlrtime on Tuesday January 09, 2024 @08:16AM (#38925807)
You're in the wrong place, this isn't a PE problem.

There are industrial spaces near me ~ $6/sq/yr with configurable sizes where you could do all this. This is also 30 minutes from a international airport.

It's like complaning that someone can't build a factory in manhattan because real estate firms bought all the land.

Re:Money Pours into New Fabs and Facilities by dragontamer on Tuesday January 09, 2024 @09:08AM (#38926320)
Shenzhen, where China builds electronics, is a 17-million population city where such electronic shops can be built.

If we in the USA are supposed to compete against that, we need to start thinking about how to build our cities or culture to provide similar features to Chinese society.

Not like their human rights or whatever, but their specific production specs. How quickly you can physically shop in Shenzhen in person to look for parts, how easy it is to share designs in the engineering community, the economies of scale and so forth.

We are getting our ass kicked on electronics production. We really should think about emulating China now on this subject.

Re:Money Pours into New Fabs and Facilities by Workaccount2 on Tuesday January 09, 2024 @10:26AM (#38927196)
Emulate China? China emulated us.

The US had all that 100 years ago. We are passed that stage and bringing it back is going to have to be artificial and forced. And probably won't even work.

China is not a USA that figured out cheap manufacturing. China is an emerging economy that reaped the benefits of being an emerging economy (lax regulation + borderline slave labor). The same way (generally) the USA did 100 years ago to get to the advanced economy stage it is at today.

Re:Money Pours into New Fabs and Facilities by dragontamer on Tuesday January 09, 2024 @10:48AM (#38927446)
There's no equivalent to JLCPCB in the USA, only in China.

There are no legions of pre-packed pick-and-place machines in the USA that are hooked up to internet orders so that a machine handles nearly the entire process from PCB-manufacturing to PCB-Assembly / Pick-and-place, and then shipped out to you for less than $100.

Seriously: checkout the PCB and Assembly prices here: https://jlcpcb.com/

Yes, there's some degree of low wages going on here. But there's *ALSO* benefits to scale. Internet-scale production and centralization means they can take orders and achieve efficiencies completely impossible in the USA right now.

Now as EEs (be it hobbyist or professional), we need to start thinking about this difference in manufacturing flexibility. USA can keep up with China in terms of overall manufacturing (ex: if someone orders 100,000+ boards and assembly, USA can somewhat compete). But when it comes down to smaller orders, China is just far more flexible. In ways suggesting far superior automation (not just cheaper labor)

Really, think about these prices. Its obvious that jlcpcb just has a pre-made pipeline of pick-and-place machines covering the 500,000 in-house parts, and thus can offer extremely cheap assembly of those specific reels as its likely all automated.

----------

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F6ZTn1t3Lsc

Re:Money Pours into New Fabs and Facilities by Workaccount2 on Tuesday January 09, 2024 @10:55AM (#38927533)
>The US had all that 100 years ago. We are passed that stage and bringing it back is going to have to be artificial and forced.
Re:Money Pours into New Fabs and Facilities by dragontamer on Tuesday January 09, 2024 @10:57AM (#38927559)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F6ZTn1t3Lsc

This ain't early 1900s bub. This is China today. This is what we're competing against, and people need to wake up to the fact that we've fallen behind.

Re:Money Pours into New Fabs and Facilities by Workaccount2 on Tuesday January 09, 2024 @11:02AM (#38927625)
>We are passed that stage and bringing it back is going to have to be artificial and forced
Re:Money Pours into New Fabs and Facilities by dragontamer on Tuesday January 09, 2024 @11:13AM (#38927780)
Look at the damn Youtube video.

That's not "slave labor". That's manufacturing and automation. USA is behind in this kind of training, schooling, and industrial understanding.

That's not some unskilled bozo they picked off the street. That's a Chinese engineer, likely trained from a University, who has Electronics knowledge likely exceeding many American Engineers (especially in the field of manufacturing that we're falling behind on). They program computers to assemble these devices. They have web-programmers to convert our Gerber files or KiCAD files into pick-and-place primitives. They have optimized assembly lines to minimize human error and maximize automation.

------

There's a few shops in the USA that can do this sort of stuff, but no one close to the scale, reliability, or price of JLCPCB right now. That's the problem.

Its not "slave labor" or "low-economy" crap that they're beating us in anymore. Its high-tech, advanced economy automation. Do you think anyone in the USA has a pick-and-place machine / PCB-assembly line that well made? And flexible enough to handle random internet orders of quantity 10?

Re:Money Pours into New Fabs and Facilities by Workaccount2 on Tuesday January 09, 2024 @11:28AM (#38928002)
We are in agreement, I think you must just be misinterpreting my comments.

The US used to have insane manufacturing skill and logistics, but has since moved past it, especially in the last 30ish years. The US is now a fully fledged advanced economy, and likewise is primarily focused on high margin/high skilled service work.

China will likely move away from manufacturing too if it moves into advanced economy territory, at which point some other agricultural economy will start their foray into manufacturing, and sell to China for cheap.

This is how economies work. It's unprecedented for an advanced economy to bring back emerging economy manufacturing, it's experimental and untested for sure.

Re:Money Pours into New Fabs and Facilities by dragontamer on Tuesday January 09, 2024 @12:29PM (#38928945)
I think where you're missing is that all those "services" in the so called "service economy" exist to make the "real economy" more productive.

If services have settled upon "Use China for Manufacturing", instead of ya know, building better manufacturing centers or figuring out training programs or other such advancements, then the economy has failed us.

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The only way this so called "advanced service economy" actually benefits America is if we create better products, better research, better designs and make due with fewer workers on a realistic level.

If we're just sending money overseas its obviously a loss in the long run.

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USA's manufacturing prowess is still there btw. It took advanced computers, chemicals, and life-sciences to develop the COVID19 vaccines (and the updates to said vaccines) so quickly. China has seemingly been unable to replicate the feat.

But in _specifically_ electronics, China has pulled far ahead of us. I think USA wins in chemical and energy sciences for the most part. (China getting a big lead on LiFePo4 though).

At some point, we need to think and look hard upon ourselves and self-reflect. Why is our service economy unable to replicate the advanced designs and advanced factories that China can so easily stamp out?

We're supposed to have better software. We're supposed to have better engineers and better design services. But at the end of the day, China out-manufactures us in the realm of electronics. Thinking and reflecting upon this, as well as the nature of service economies and what our "services" and "advanced economy" is supposed to accomplish is key.

Re:Money Pours into New Fabs and Facilities by shiroiuma on Tuesday January 09, 2024 @11:23PM (#38936137)
>USA's manufacturing prowess is still there btw. It took advanced computers, chemicals, and life-sciences to develop the COVID19 vaccines (and the updates to said vaccines) so quickly. China has seemingly been unable to replicate the feat.

That's not manufacturing so much as R&D. China isn't so great in that department, but they're great at pumping out manufactured goods with slightly behind-cutting-edge technologies at huge volumes. If China had access to all the R&D behind the mRNA vaccines, they could probably manufacture them too.

Re:Money Pours into New Fabs and Facilities by dragontamer on Wednesday January 10, 2024 @12:35PM (#38940990)
My understanding is that mRNA vaccines require advanced biotechnology, wherein the simulated mRNA is converted into DNA in a lab (DNA which can then create mRNA later), a bunch of magic goop gets added (activating the DNA to start producing the mRNA)... and then chemicals are used to isolate the vaccine (aka: mRNA) out of the goop.

Consistently, and safely, doing this to the scale of hundreds-of-millions of doses or even billions-of-doses is obviously a big manufacturing feat.

Re:Money Pours into New Fabs and Facilities by shiroiuma on Wednesday January 10, 2024 @08:39PM (#38946301)
Right. So if the US gives China all the know-how for doing that manufacturing process, they'll be able to do it just fine, just like they've done for so many other manufacturing technologies the US happily and willingly exported to China.
Re:Money Pours into New Fabs and Facilities by thereisnospork on Tuesday January 09, 2024 @09:00AM (#38926239)
>It's like complaning that someone can't build a factory in manhattan because real estate firms bought all the land.

People complained good and hard about not being able to open/run a bodega in Manhattan because firms 'bought up all the land' - to the point Mom and pop shops got significant legislative benefits. To everyone's benefit(?)

Re:Money Pours into New Fabs and Facilities by lobochrome on Tuesday January 09, 2024 @02:28AM (#38923395)
This is one key aspect, but it's more relevant in cities with high walkability - which you don't have at all in the BA.

I love this aspect of Japan, though. The mixed nature of neighborhoods is magical.

Re:Money Pours into New Fabs and Facilities by pezezin on Tuesday January 09, 2024 @03:27AM (#38923702)
That is only in the big cities like Tokyo or Osaka, as soon as you step out of them Japan quickly devolves into awful American-style urban sprawl and you need a car for everything.

Source: 5 years living in Aomori.

Re:Money Pours into New Fabs and Facilities by shiroiuma on Tuesday January 09, 2024 @04:17AM (#38923956)
Sure, but the large majority of the population lives in those handful of big cities. 1/3 of the population lives in the greater Tokyo area alone. Ignoring the people who live in American-style suburban sprawl means you're ignoring a small fraction of the population. This is basically the reverse of the US, where a small fraction lives in walkable city areas like Manhattan, and everyone else needs a car.
Re:Money Pours into New Fabs and Facilities by pezezin on Wednesday January 10, 2024 @12:59AM (#38936760)
It is not "a small fraction of the population", pretty much any city other than Tokyo and Osaka suffer from ridiculous urban sprawl. Sure, Tokyo and Osaka are huge and together they hold half the population of the country, but then you have the other half...
Re:Money Pours into New Fabs and Facilities by oblio on Tuesday January 09, 2024 @05:03AM (#38924289)
It's hard to make small, rural places walkable. Walkability and bikeability imply density and a solid public transit network (which is costly).

It's fine if the places where 80% of people live are walkable and the rest maybe aren't as great.

Re:Money Pours into New Fabs and Facilities by pezezin on Tuesday January 09, 2024 @07:18AM (#38925278)
I am talking about about cities of almost 300k people. Look for example at Aomori city, it has a small downtown of around 1~2 sqkm, and then a million houses scattered everywhere.

And in any case, I am from Spain, a country were even small villages a pretty walkable. There was an article here recently explaining it: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=38189840

Re:Money Pours into New Fabs and Facilities by dukeyukey on Tuesday January 09, 2024 @06:28AM (#38924878)
> It's hard to make small, rural places walkable

I don't know about that. My experience (in the UK) is small, rural places are by default walkable 'cause they haven't changed that much in the last coupel of centuries, when you had to be walkable since cars and bikes didn't exist.

Re:Money Pours into New Fabs and Facilities by oblio on Tuesday January 09, 2024 @06:42AM (#38924974)
Yeah, many old villages in Romania and everywhere around the world are like that. Unfortunately newer ones tend to be designed for cars :-(
Re:Money Pours into New Fabs and Facilities by bluGill on Tuesday January 09, 2024 @09:02AM (#38926260)
Here in the US those communities used to be walkable, but the small grocery store either closed, or has moved to a big box on the edge of town where you can't walk to it anymore. Most other stores have closed as all the locals just plan a monthly trip to the nearest large city (1 hour drive, each way) to use the WalMart and malls there - the prices are enough better in the large city that it is worth the fuel and making a full day of it once a month. If the town is close enough to a city the downtown stores now survive as a tourist attraction for the city, selling "art" - not the type of things you might go to town to buy for daily living.

There is a high likelihood that the old town square has been taken over by local government offices. If you work there great, but otherwise not the type of place you would visit often if at all.

In short they still have the walkabel guts from the 1800s, but there is nothing to walk to.

Re:Money Pours into New Fabs and Facilities by cpursley on Tuesday January 09, 2024 @05:53AM (#38924631)
Rural Netherlands disagrees with you.
Re:Money Pours into New Fabs and Facilities by zozbot234 on Tuesday January 09, 2024 @06:09AM (#38924743)
"Rural" Netherlands is still pretty dense, though. At least dense enough that the very idea of getting from one place to the next by bike is pretty sensible. You don't have that in the true rural U.S. Now suburbia could look like that (i.e. village-like mixed use communities linked by bike paths, not just vehicular traffic) and that would be a better comparison.
Re:Money Pours into New Fabs and Facilities by cpursley on Tuesday January 09, 2024 @08:06AM (#38925714)
That's the dream!
Re:Money Pours into New Fabs and Facilities by shiroiuma on Tuesday January 09, 2024 @08:17PM (#38934872)
I actually disagree to an extent. Many smaller towns I've visited in Japan actually are walkable: they have a single train station, and the town around the station can be mostly walked, and easily biked. If you need to go farther out, like to some warehouse or onsen not close to the town, this might be too much, but for most of the locals, they can do most of their trips without a car. But the key here is that the town, while not an urban metropolis with a subway system of course, is still somewhat dense compared to a North American suburb.

If we go back in time to North America in the late 1800s, for comparison, it's much the same. People didn't have cars, and while some people had horses, they were expensive and not everyone did. The towns had a railroad station and otherwise were very walkable. There were no parking lots forcing low density because there were no cars.

Edit: note that I don't mean to imply that all smaller towns or cities in Japan are like this. The boring towns that are copies of suburban America are places I simply wouldn't visit, because there's absolutely nothing interesting there for a visitor (just like suburban America); the towns I've visited are interesting, cute towns in the mountains that actually attract tourists for some reason (onsen, access to mountain trails, etc.).

Re:Money Pours into New Fabs and Facilities by CalRobert on Tuesday January 09, 2024 @04:54AM (#38924232)
It's not exactly Paris but the SF bay area is one of the best places in the US for walkability. Certainly much of SF, Berkeley, and Oakland are walkable (or at least were when I lived there in 2010!).

And if not walkable, bikable - I biked to a hacker space in Dublin (Ireland, not the BA one) for a while with zero parking but most people walked or biked there. A folding bike meant even less space was necessary.