Wildly different scenarios.

Elaborate?

have you read the article? youth unemployment rate is far higher with many, even in STEM degrees, struggling to get any jobs. social pressure to succeed academically is far higher in China and there is nothing equivalent in the US. 996 culture is an insane concept. censorship in entertainment is pervasive. rampant sexism.

its easy to say "oh yea the US has these problems too" but it is 1000x worse in China, and its extremely privileged to even try and say its the same as in the US. The cultures are so incredibly different in every single way.

Plus, some aspects of Chinese society make the end impact of youth dissatisfaction worse than in the US.

For one, the CCP's rule and legitimacy are tightly coupled with performance. China has experienced unprecedented economic growth in these past decades, and that makes the citizens more willing to tolerate the annoying (or outright evil) things the CCP does because at least it's helping everyone in aggregate. But now that that growth is slowing, they have to worry that their justification to power is in jeopardy. And because the CCP obviously doesn't run elections or allow any dissident groups, the only way for widespread dissatisfaction with their performance to surface is unrest. Their bungling of the latter half of the pandemic certainly didn't help their case here.

For another, as the article alludes to, it's thought of as impossible for a man to get married without owning a home, and failing to start a family is failing as a human (particularly as the CCP explicitly calls for citizens to have more babies). Skyrocketing home prices compared to stagnant wages are growing the pool of "logistical incels" who have no realistic trajectory to ever being married or starting a family, which was already a grave problem due to lingering sex imbalance from the one child policy. The CCP is deeply concerned with this because large pools of incels tend to grow unstable and even turn to violence, out of desparation.

And for yet another, the extent to which Xi Jiping is able to promulgate and impose his philosophy has no analog in the west. If that philosophy is "you need to stop whining roll up your sleeves and be willing to work long hours in a factory like we did during the Mao era, even if that means your degree is wasted" -- which is a message the CCP is currently pushing, as cited in the article -- that's going to dramatically exacerbate the frustrations the young are already feeling, again even moreso because they have no way to voice their hopelessness. The nihilism compounds.

The Economist does a great job covering China in general, and especially in pointing out the ways that though their challenges and structures may appear superficially similar to Westerners, often the subtleties make them completely different. I'd especially recommend their podcast Drum Tower, if you're into that.

Exactly. It all sounds comparatively samey, like "well hey, people over here feel defeated too, lol" and thus you get whataboutism propagating really easily.

Anyway...I'm probably overreacting...I should probably go focus on figuring out a few sneaky emoji I can use, so that I can write Joe Biden's name in my social media posts without getting blocked or officially identified as a critic...

https://chinadigitaltimes.net/chinese/698968.html?amp

Different system start points for sure (representative democracy and shades of capitalism vs authoritarianism and faux capitalism), but the outcomes being similar is undeniable. Why? That’s what’s interesting. Is it solely a demographic compression story? Obviously not, as younger cohorts are optimizing for happiness due to bleakness and not grinding for unattainable dreams (in the aggregate, luck aside).

It’s hope (or lack thereof), which is a lever for aggregate motivation across a labor force participation cohort. No hope, no effort.

For all of the political huff and puff China and America are two sides of the same coin.

Education, however, consistently leads to better outcomes. White collar workers are doing well across the country (US). Forget about tech, accountants, HR professionals, economists, risk analysts, project managers, etc. are all doing well. It's predominantly the un- and under-educated that are being left behind.

Unless of course you took out massive student loans for that education and failed to study an employable skill, those silly 18 year olds, not able to understand the shifting labor market and make sensible 30 year predictions on what skills will be desired.

It's not a matter of predicting the labor market, it's a matter of understanding debt. There are very few possible job markets where the kind of debt we're talking about makes any kind of sense. What's missing in our high school education is any form of basic financial literacy.

It's still unfair to blame the kids (technically, brand-new adults) for the system's failure to teach them, but you don't have to be an oracle to predict that $100k in student loans isn't going to pay for itself when compared to a comparable degree from a lesser-known school for $32k.

If only someone with access to thousands or even millions of repayment histories and income estimates could evaluate default risk on such loans. /s

The problem is that the incentives for everyone are broken. Usury has been banned or made into a crime throughout history, why did we legalize it when it comes to student debt?

Yeah I bet there’s something deeply different about the collective psychological impact of being trapped because of an ostensible bad decision (the wrong major) vs simply having no options regardless of what major you choose. When I talk to my debt-shackled American friends there’s some acknowledgment of studying the wrong thing, even knowing that as kids we’re not equipped to make a smart decision, as you say. In China it seems a lot more bleak, like whatever you study you’ll likely end up unable to use it.

Also, in the US there isn’t pressure to do factory work specifically if you can’t get a job. That’s a particularly rough job, especially if you were pursuing white collar work, but it’s where the ccp is pushing folks.

And not to forget the amount of "follow your passion" that's thrown around with almost never mentioning employability or earning potential or practical long term outcomes. Now, that leads to an 18 year old picking Egyptian heiroglyphics as his focus and then realizes that he/she has a lot of debt but that the field doesn't employ as many people as accountants. Granted a 18 year old should have known this but a mistake at 18 shouldn't have such long lasting and serious consequences.

The market that reliably rewards medicine, law, finance and engineering is not very mysterious.

I was in undergrad during 2008 and I am still pissed that the game was changed on us and we've gotten no assistance. I made very smart choices in 2005 when I was choosing what to do.

I like your humor

UPS workers are doing well because they have a union. Important data point.

I totally agree with this. A union may not be necessary in many cases, but some sort of organization definitely is. Many of my examples have self-organized, self-regulations associations that manage their own credentials and establish rate guidelines for their services. Other professional pools should learn from this.

I've been advocating for guilds for a while. The software industry should learn from the actors. It's artistic work with a labour pool comprising of vastly different capabilities, yet they managed to find a way to band together. Moreover, exceptional talent is still compensated above and beyond, unlike a union: Being part of the guild does not restrict the likes of Tom Cruise or Margot Robbie from being paid buckets of money, getting a gross of the profits, etc.

Email in profile, always open to hearing from like minded folks on the topic of labor rights and organizing.

DM sent.

>Education, however, consistently leads to better outcomes

So, if everyone had 2 phds ( assuming phds are the pinnacle of educational heights) almost no one (or very few) would be left behind?

From an American perspective, the problem seems to be of payoff timelines. Struggling and working hard for years doesn’t sound so bad if there is a great reward on the other side.

But when that reward is 15-20 years away, and is a basic house you can barely afford… something has gone wrong.

Nicely put. Makes us wonder - we are all pawns that our leadership uses to divide us on, while really leadership is all buddy buddy at a higher level! I suppose art imitates life. You see this in your international governments, you see this in corporate politics. Reality is we (demographic X) have a lot more common with the same demographic X in another region/country/corporation.