It's not a matter of predicting the labor market, it's a matter of understanding debt. There are very few possible job markets where the kind of debt we're talking about makes any kind of sense. What's missing in our high school education is any form of basic financial literacy.

It's still unfair to blame the kids (technically, brand-new adults) for the system's failure to teach them, but you don't have to be an oracle to predict that $100k in student loans isn't going to pay for itself when compared to a comparable degree from a lesser-known school for $32k.

If only someone with access to thousands or even millions of repayment histories and income estimates could evaluate default risk on such loans. /s

The problem is that the incentives for everyone are broken. Usury has been banned or made into a crime throughout history, why did we legalize it when it comes to student debt?

Yeah I bet there’s something deeply different about the collective psychological impact of being trapped because of an ostensible bad decision (the wrong major) vs simply having no options regardless of what major you choose. When I talk to my debt-shackled American friends there’s some acknowledgment of studying the wrong thing, even knowing that as kids we’re not equipped to make a smart decision, as you say. In China it seems a lot more bleak, like whatever you study you’ll likely end up unable to use it.

Also, in the US there isn’t pressure to do factory work specifically if you can’t get a job. That’s a particularly rough job, especially if you were pursuing white collar work, but it’s where the ccp is pushing folks.

And not to forget the amount of "follow your passion" that's thrown around with almost never mentioning employability or earning potential or practical long term outcomes. Now, that leads to an 18 year old picking Egyptian heiroglyphics as his focus and then realizes that he/she has a lot of debt but that the field doesn't employ as many people as accountants. Granted a 18 year old should have known this but a mistake at 18 shouldn't have such long lasting and serious consequences.

The market that reliably rewards medicine, law, finance and engineering is not very mysterious.

I was in undergrad during 2008 and I am still pissed that the game was changed on us and we've gotten no assistance. I made very smart choices in 2005 when I was choosing what to do.

I like your humor