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Re:Office real estate crash will be so sharp, values unlikel... by spokeonawheel on Sunday June 25, 2023 @08:08AM (#36467357)
crazy idea: us govt scoops up all the office real estate at the crash and converts to low income housing for free. Solve two crisis at once, the obviously coming real estate crisis and the homeless crisis. All for the cost of a handful of F35s

If only politicians had an iota of strategy.

Re:Office real estate crash will be so sharp, values unlikel... by eganist on Sunday June 25, 2023 @08:27AM (#36467495)
Code requirements for housing are far more strict. One of the reasons you don't regularly see office building conversions is because homes require things like windows for each bedroom or at least one bathroom per home.

While the bathrooms can be fixed with effort, windows mean a lot of office spaces would have empty cores as only the square footage near the outer edge of the building would be used.

(This isn't my area of expertise. I'm leaning on there being someone closer to this topic here on HN to opine, but this is at least how I understood it from real estate developers who noted to me why they're avoiding office space conversions)

Re:Office real estate crash will be so sharp, values unlikel... by zirgs on Sunday June 25, 2023 @08:37AM (#36467572)
Those empty cores could be repurposed as storage areas though. Those don't require windows.
Re:Office real estate crash will be so sharp, values unlikel... by joenot443 on Sunday June 25, 2023 @08:41AM (#36467611)
Imagine the layout of a large office building. Some of them have the same footprint as an entire city block. The "empty cores" make up the majority of the interior of the building itself, it can't all be repurposed as storage areas.

I feel like the notion "the govt should turn empty offices into housing!!" comes up on places like reddit _all_ the time, it takes very little explanation to show why it's not that simple.

Re:Office real estate crash will be so sharp, values unlikel... by spokeonawheel on Sunday June 25, 2023 @08:47AM (#36467656)
ignoring code for a minute, for the most vulnerable, having a roof over their head is a serious challenge, and only getting worse as more and more people get kicked out onto the streets. Additionally, I am suggesting that this would be a government social service. USA is a deplorable example of how to view and treat homeless.
Re:Office real estate crash will be so sharp, values unlikel... by jprete on Sunday June 25, 2023 @08:52AM (#36467701)
It can be better than the status quo, but there will still be major newspapers running stories about the homeless being warehoused in lightless holes with bad bathroom access and no kitchens.
Re:Office real estate crash will be so sharp, values unlikel... by lost_tourist on Sunday June 25, 2023 @02:07PM (#36471029)
Lol I lived in a basement with no windows for half of my college education, it was fine. People adapt. Shelter is almost as important as food and sometimes more important, otherwise you freeze to death.
Re:Office real estate crash will be so sharp, values unlikel... by joenot443 on Sunday June 25, 2023 @09:08AM (#36467833)
Which developed country whose population experiences similar rates of homelessness to the US do you think the US should be modeling their policy off of? The UK or NZ I guess?
Re:Office real estate crash will be so sharp, values unlikel... by fakedang on Sunday June 25, 2023 @08:53AM (#36467709)
If the govt can scoop up all CRE, then wouldn't government also be able to work loopholes around code? An executive order is all it takes tbh. I'm certain a sincere homeless person doesn't give a rats ass about whether his home has a window or not. As for building safety, high rise office buildings tend to be high up wrt safety codes.
Re:Office real estate crash will be so sharp, values unlikel... by Spooky23 on Sunday June 25, 2023 @08:44AM (#36467624)
The real issue is plumbing. You need more plumbing in residential real estate.

Many buildings are difficult to retrofit because they use a type of compressed concrete floor that cannot be safely drilled. Cheaper to demo.

Re:Office real estate crash will be so sharp, values unlikel... by drdec on Sunday June 25, 2023 @09:40AM (#36468086)
Right, you demo the existing building and rebuild one that will satisfy the window per bedroom requirement efficiently. I'm sure people reading HN can imagine a multitude of solutions.

We just need to reach the tipping point where the demo/rebuild cost is lower than the expected gain.

Re:Office real estate crash will be so sharp, values unlikel... by Spooky23 on Sunday June 25, 2023 @12:07PM (#36469706)
Real estate is all about tax schemes. If the market goes as predicted, Congress will update the rules and there will be a demolition rush.
Re:Office real estate crash will be so sharp, values unlikel... by photonbeam on Sunday June 25, 2023 @12:33PM (#36469979)
Can they run the plumbing on the outside of the building?
Re:Office real estate crash will be so sharp, values unlikel... by WillPostForFood on Sunday June 25, 2023 @11:09AM (#36468997)
windows mean a lot of office spaces would have empty cores

Just change the code.

Re:Office real estate crash will be so sharp, values unlikel... by eganist on Sunday June 25, 2023 @11:17AM (#36469121)
Not only is this a massive fire safety concern (considering why the requirement for two means of egress exists in residential building code), it's also a massive optics concern to stuff unhoused people into what'll effectively be written up by the press as a prison cell.

Changing code here is unviable.

Re:Office real estate crash will be so sharp, values unlikel... by WillPostForFood on Sunday June 25, 2023 @02:03PM (#36470991)
There is no egress from windows in tall buildings. They don't open, it is too high for ladders. So it adds no safety in this context, so change the code.

Also, if you need a window for a bedroom to be safe, why not an office? People spend 8 hours in an office without a window. Mitigating fire risk in tall buildings is a serious issue, but you have sprinkler systems, internal stair exits, etc.

Re:Office real estate crash will be so sharp, values unlikel... by jdross on Sunday June 25, 2023 @08:32AM (#36467539)
Cheaper to tear down commercial RE and rebuild multi-family than to attempt a conversion. Floor plates made of high tension steel can’t be broken up for replumbing, usually you’ll want or need elevators & interior courtyards needed for lighting. There are very different water & electrical requirements

Maybe there’s a creative way to do low-income housing meaning only a window or two in the whole unit, no individual HVAC control (set by building) lots of artificial light, and someone more knowledgeable than me would need to explain the power & plumbing tradeoffs. Maybe you could basically replumb & wire on top of the floorplates, taking a few inches from ceiling height?

Re:Office real estate crash will be so sharp, values unlikel... by m0llusk on Sunday June 25, 2023 @09:50AM (#36468160)
There are important exceptions to this. Old industrial era commercial buildings often have large spaces and big windows that make them relatively easy to convert. This is why lofts as a form make sense while also being desirable. Much of the cost of converted units comes from the high cost of acquiring the property, but that is less of a problem if the properties lose their value or are possessed by the government. And it is worth remembering that all properties are depreciating assets that get rebuilt or refurbished every 15-45 years or so on average anyway.
Re:Office real estate crash will be so sharp, values unlikel... by johnyzee on Sunday June 25, 2023 @11:56AM (#36469579)
There are solutions that redirect actual sunlight from outside, into dark interior spaces. They use them in many modern metro stations, and they work pretty well to get the feeling of actual overhead windows. AFAIK some of these solutions successfully channel almost the entire spectrum of real sunlight. I always feel that this is way under utilized - I could hardly name a building that wouldn't benefit from additional sunlight in some of the interior spaces. The systems are currently quite expensive, so that's probably part of it.

As for plumbing, like you I also speculate if they could not just do a raised floor, or possibly inside/along walls, to increase the reach. They already do this in some renovations of very old buildings where they want to create a large central kitchen (resulting in almost horizontal plumbing that clogs like nobody's business).

Re:Office real estate crash will be so sharp, values unlikel... by hindsightbias on Sunday June 25, 2023 @12:23PM (#36469874)
Communal housing floors. Facilities and shared kitchen in center core. Modern buildings already support wide flexibility for walling working areas.
Re:Office real estate crash will be so sharp, values unlikel... by pharmakom on Sunday June 25, 2023 @08:15AM (#36467399)
Lack of affordable housing is not a crisis for the ownership class.
Re:Office real estate crash will be so sharp, values unlikel... by ClumsyPilot on Sunday June 25, 2023 @08:46AM (#36467646)
its a feature
Re:Office real estate crash will be so sharp, values unlikel... by ClumsyPilot on Sunday June 25, 2023 @08:29AM (#36467510)
it is really easy to make boatloads of money as a government if you get off your ass and actually play the game.

Step 1 -aquire land and property Step 2 - Build mass transit / metro and invest in the area, proterty price goes up 3x Step 3 - Rent out, or sell

If some one refuses to sell land ar step 1, buld transit where you actually do buy land

Re:Office real estate crash will be so sharp, values unlikel... by imtringued on Sunday June 25, 2023 @08:39AM (#36467591)
This is a pyramid scheme that only works until you run out of undeveloped land. Also, this is already done in the form of suburban sprawl. You generate a bounded one off income but end up burdened with yearly maintenance obligations that never end.

Instead of doing this, it would be far more logical to just charge for the services being provided in the form of a yearly fee proportional to the amount of land that is being occupied.

Re:Office real estate crash will be so sharp, values unlikel... by ClumsyPilot on Sunday June 25, 2023 @08:51AM (#36467690)
> pyramid scheme that only works until you run out of undeveloped land.

The whole point of a pyramid scheme is they don't create value.

Developing the undeveloped is a productive contibution to the economy. Solving the housing crisis is a productive activity

> this is already done in the form of suburban sprawl

You have to create high-density housing, apartments, and local amenities. Pulling expensive underground rail tlinto a group of suburban homes is a waste

> You generate a bounded one off income

keep them and rent them out

Re:Office real estate crash will be so sharp, values unlikel... by gremlinsinc on Sunday June 25, 2023 @08:38AM (#36467583)
this reads like a strategy guide for a city sim lol
Re:Office real estate crash will be so sharp, values unlikel... by hackeraccount on Sunday June 25, 2023 @09:48AM (#36468150)
This assumes Governments want to make boatloads of money. Why would they?

Governments want to help their friends and hurt their enemies. Doing this almost never involves making money - sometimes and only sometimes it involves helping their friends make money.

In your example step 1 and 2 are fine but 3 is awkward. Selling or renting things doesn't make anyone happy. It's better to just give it away - there's no profit to be made but again - the point isn't profit.

Re:Office real estate crash will be so sharp, values unlikel... by zirgs on Sunday June 25, 2023 @08:32AM (#36467540)
The problem is that many offices - especially open plan offices - are difficult to convert to living spaces. Few people would want to live in a windowless apartment.
Re:Office real estate crash will be so sharp, values unlikel... by endisneigh on Sunday June 25, 2023 @08:30AM (#36467522)
Your strategy makes no sense lol. Where’s the money for this going to come from?
Re:Office real estate crash will be so sharp, values unlikel... by dmbche on Sunday June 25, 2023 @08:34AM (#36467551)
OC says "for less than 2 F-35s" - small budget cut to convert buildings into massive amounts of housing, seems reasonable at first glance
Re:Office real estate crash will be so sharp, values unlikel... by CameronNemo on Sunday June 25, 2023 @11:25AM (#36469207)
The only part of the budget not getting cut is the military portion, so good luck with that.
Re:Office real estate crash will be so sharp, values unlikel... by ClumsyPilot on Sunday June 25, 2023 @08:56AM (#36467735)
You complaint makes no sence - this is an oportunity to make bank. its not an expense
Re:Office real estate crash will be so sharp, values unlikel... by endisneigh on Sunday June 25, 2023 @09:04AM (#36467798)
Please do tell how this makes money, and why many are not jumping at this opportunity
Re:Office real estate crash will be so sharp, values unlikel... by dmbche on Sunday June 25, 2023 @10:07AM (#36468322)
It's only an opportunity for government as zoning/regulations have to be adjusted for this situation.

If that happens, and it's made reasonable to convert offices into housing, pretty easy to make money from that.

(Edit: by renting/selling the housing - if that wasn't clear yet)

What are we gonna do with the offices anyway? Keep em empty for old times sake?

Re:Office real estate crash will be so sharp, values unlikel... by endisneigh on Sunday June 25, 2023 @10:32AM (#36468537)
Why would the owners of the office space sell? They could do this themselves if it’s that lucrative.
Re:Office real estate crash will be so sharp, values unlikel... by dmbche on Sunday June 25, 2023 @10:37AM (#36468595)
Sure - that's also a great option, the government will make money on the permits and taxes from converting and selling/renting. Still better than keeping everything empty.

It's possible the owners wouldn't want to start running a renting to tenants business if they were renting office space, since it's less money per client and more maintenance/running costs. The governement could very well be better at handling this than private companies, and would companies would sell for liquidity instead of future profit, and go into something else.

Esit: I'm no expert on housing, but this would disrupt wildly the value of housing in the city, since the benefit of being close to offices vanishes and housing is all over. Profits from exploiting the buildings could very well be less than interesting for private companies.

It could also be governement policy to sell this housing to individuals instead of renting, creating a lot of capital to be used by individuals (since mortgages are tough to reach for most people today, this could be nice economic leverage for individuals, if they could buy cheap housing and mortgage it.

Not sure what that'd do to the economy but I doubt it would be bad.

Re:Office real estate crash will be so sharp, values unlikel... by endisneigh on Sunday June 25, 2023 @11:08AM (#36468985)
From what you’re saying it doesn’t sound like it would be lucrative. Lotta conjecture and hand waiving here
Re:Office real estate crash will be so sharp, values unlikel... by dmbche on Sunday June 25, 2023 @11:31AM (#36469262)
Yeah - I'm spitballing on what to do with empty office space that no one would possibly want to buy if we don't go back to offices.

I garantee you that keeping em empty isn't lucrative, so we gotta do something with them. Housing makes some sense.

What are you suggesting?

Re:Office real estate crash will be so sharp, values unlikel... by endisneigh on Sunday June 25, 2023 @11:45AM (#36469423)
I’m not suggesting anything. I don’t think turning office space into housing makes sense. I also don’t think getting the government involved makes sense either. The government is responsible for the current housing crisis to begin with with excessive zoning and enablement of small communities to block development.
Re:Office real estate crash will be so sharp, values unlikel... by dmbche on Sunday June 25, 2023 @11:53AM (#36469553)
Sweet. Thanks for the input.
Re:Office real estate crash will be so sharp, values unlikel... by tectec on Sunday June 25, 2023 @08:19AM (#36467430)
It’s not so easy to convert offices to living areas, although I think it’s been done in a few places
Re:Office real estate crash will be so sharp, values unlikel... by eganist on Sunday June 25, 2023 @08:32AM (#36467542)
Only in buildings which could reasonably be converted to have windows for each room without wasting office space square footage.

So, slimmer buildings basically.

Re:Office real estate crash will be so sharp, values unlikel... by AndrewKemendo on Sunday June 25, 2023 @08:46AM (#36467647)
Love this idea. Feels very reasonable, but most likely politically impossible so some Governor or someone with executive power and discretionary funds needs to just do it.
Re:Office real estate crash will be so sharp, values unlikel... by booleandilemma on Sunday June 25, 2023 @08:48AM (#36467668)
Here in New York I'm expecting Mayor Adams to suggest housing the migrants in empty office buildings any day now.
Re:Office real estate crash will be so sharp, values unlikel... by xyzelement on Sunday June 25, 2023 @08:50AM (#36467684)
// If only politicians had an iota of strategy

Strategy requires a goal. Naively your goal might be to house more people.

NYC tried that with lots of projects built in the mid 20th century. True it provided apartments for a number of people during that time. However the projects were a terrible dangerous place to grown-up and many who grew up in them weren't able to enter mainstream society (and thus then subsequent generation requires even more such housing)

Meanwhile the areas near these projects are also dangerous and blighted - doing that at scale would condemn the entire downtown and send the city into a tax death spiral.

Re:Office real estate crash will be so sharp, values unlikel... by bombcar on Sunday June 25, 2023 @08:51AM (#36467691)
Here's a good article on when it can be done, and how: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2023/03/11/upshot/office...

(archive: https://archive.ph/gQiQW but it's not as easy to read)

Takeway: old skyscrapers are easier to convert than new ones, because they tended toward home-like small offices.

A modern skyscraper had to have a hole punched in it.

Re:Office real estate crash will be so sharp, values unlikel... by stonelazy on Sunday June 25, 2023 @08:54AM (#36467714)
Saw this in one of the HN thread - Read any article beyond a paywall using 12ft.io

https://12ft.io/proxy?q=https%3A%2F%2Ffortune.com%2F2023%2F0...

Re:Office real estate crash will be so sharp, values unlikel... by 2OEH8eoCRo0 on Sunday June 25, 2023 @08:57AM (#36467749)
I don't want more low income housing and fewer F-35s though- in fact I want the exact opposite.

Low income housing comes with associated costs to the city and the people who inhabit them pay essentially no taxes so everyone else's taxes need to go up.

Re:Office real estate crash will be so sharp, values unlikel... by adingus on Sunday June 25, 2023 @09:26AM (#36467980)
I'm from a state with a long history of manufacturing and aerospace. The people who make F-35s are paid at least 75k without any qualifications and can take home much more than that if they choose to work OT. Definitely no need for low income housing for that crowd.
Re:Office real estate crash will be so sharp, values unlikel... by swalsh on Sunday June 25, 2023 @09:05AM (#36467805)
I question the need for F-35's in future warfare. Ukraine has been using drones with ruthless efficiency.

And though it scares the living heck out of me. That can be scaled up with AI.

Re:Office real estate crash will be so sharp, values unlikel... by hotpotamus on Sunday June 25, 2023 @09:01AM (#36467773)
I never really thought about the tradeoffs, but given that the F-35 is mostly used to destroy low income housing of government undesirables, I suppose there is some tension there.
Re:Office real estate crash will be so sharp, values unlikel... by joenot443 on Sunday June 25, 2023 @09:05AM (#36467807)
What conflict are you thinking of exactly when you reference F-35s being "mostly used to destroy low income housing of government undesirables"? I have no doubt the US military using fighter jets to mow down their own civilians would be well reported, so I'm sure there are lots of sources for the incident you're referencing.

Please be as specific as possible, I'd be surprised if you'd be ignorant enough to make such an accusatory comment if you didn't have an example ready to go.

Re:Office real estate crash will be so sharp, values unlikel... by hotpotamus on Sunday June 25, 2023 @09:19AM (#36467920)
Where did I say anything about "their own civilians"?
Re:Office real estate crash will be so sharp, values unlikel... by joenot443 on Sunday June 25, 2023 @09:42AM (#36468105)
So what are you referring to then? No need to be evasive - just point out the conflict you had in mind. Like I said, it'd be ignorant to make the suggestion without some kind of example, so I'm giving you the floor for an explanation. Remember, your statement was that F-35s are mostly used for mowing down the housing of undesirables, all you need to do is explain where you got that idea from.
Re:Office real estate crash will be so sharp, values unlikel... by hotpotamus on Sunday June 25, 2023 @10:28AM (#36468490)
I'm referring to the experience of a lifetime - they load these things with bombs, but the examples of them falling on those with high-income individuals is vanishingly rare. To be honest, I wasn't referring to the F-35 all that specifically, it just seems to happen when you give governments bombs and planes; they aren't about to let them sit idle.
Re:Office real estate crash will be so sharp, values unlikel... by joenot443 on Monday June 26, 2023 @07:29AM (#36478317)
Excellent, it sounds like you're learning then. The F-35 is, as it were, not a machine designed to mow down civilian buildings.
Re:Office real estate crash will be so sharp, values unlikel... by m0llusk on Sunday June 25, 2023 @10:00AM (#36468259)
Strictly speaking it is true that the F-35 is an air superiority fighter. At a more general level it is only a component of a larger war machine. Air superiority is typically asserted as part of a planned force projection. Civilian mobility and assets are commonly lost during military operations. None of this has much application to urban land use policy either way.
Re:Office real estate crash will be so sharp, values unlikel... by hotpotamus on Sunday June 25, 2023 @10:29AM (#36468508)
> Strictly speaking it is true that the F-35 is an air superiority fighter.

I wonder, does it have more kills in the air or on the ground?

Re:Office real estate crash will be so sharp, values unlikel... by dmbche on Sunday June 25, 2023 @11:06AM (#36468965)
Probably more ground - but that's not the point. The f-35 is built to be good in all conditions, have long range and carry quite a lot of ordonance, all the while being quite stealthy. It's a do-it-all plane.(80-120M usd)

The f16 is made to stay close to airbases and defend against intrusions. Kinda cheap - relatively.(60 M usd)

The f22 is the peak stealth air superiority fighter. It's made to go anywhere and murder anything. Much, much more expensive. Does not carry that much ordonance.(150M usd)

F18A are made to be do it alls on carriers.(66 M usd)

(I'd love to be corrected if i'm wrong)

Re:Office real estate crash will be so sharp, values unlikel... by hotpotamus on Sunday June 25, 2023 @01:40PM (#36470769)
> but that's not the point

There's a saying in systems engineering that comes to mind: "the purpose of a system is what it does".

It's why I've only become more and more convinced that we should leave the rest of the world alone.

Re:Office real estate crash will be so sharp, values unlikel... by joenot443 on Monday June 26, 2023 @07:28AM (#36478309)
Kraut has a video which explains why the position "US should leave the rest of the world alone" is a pretty elementary one which doesn't hold up to scrutiny.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uhXFgKEkwbU

I'd be curious for your thoughts.

Re:Office real estate crash will be so sharp, values unlikel... by leetcrew on Sunday June 25, 2023 @11:47AM (#36469461)
the f-35 is mostly used for training. it has very few combat sorties to date.
Re:Office real estate crash will be so sharp, values unlikel... by LinXitoW on Sunday June 25, 2023 @11:03AM (#36468924)
Unless we go with a very cheap option (kill all the houseless), housing them is actually a net positive for the city. Being houseless as a lot of negatives that cost us directly or indirectly. Think police enforcement, garbage cleanup, emergency rooms, even lost productivity.
Re:Office real estate crash will be so sharp, values unlikel... by swalsh on Sunday June 25, 2023 @09:02AM (#36467783)
Given the inverted demographics and an aging population... is the housing crisis a long term issue?

I'd guess in a few decades people are going to be trying to come up with solutions for all the people who overpaid for their houses, and can't find an adequate buyer.

Re:Office real estate crash will be so sharp, values unlikel... by ed25519FUUU on Sunday June 25, 2023 @11:20AM (#36469143)
Lol if you think people sell anything to the US government without price gouging then.
Re:Office real estate crash will be so sharp, values unlikel... by spacemadness on Sunday June 25, 2023 @11:27AM (#36469225)
I do love the idea of the American Government giving a damn about low income folks. Unfortunately, any time a politician cares, our entire system destroys them to keep the inequality machine fueled.
Re:Office real estate crash will be so sharp, values unlikel... by lost_tourist on Sunday June 25, 2023 @02:04PM (#36471013)
This will never happen. Also it's not about "iotas of strategy", it's about politicians not caring. You can't make conservatives care about homeless housing, it simply doesn't compute, "get a job" is their answer to the chronically homeless who are usually either completely addicted to a substance or suffer severe mental issues.
Re:Office real estate crash will be so sharp, values unlikel... by jliptzin on Sunday June 25, 2023 @04:14PM (#36472138)
They have a strategy; the strategy is to help bring about the next crisis, either by manufacturing it, or allowing it to happen, so voters can be scared into whatever it is the government wants to do. For example, while Biden is president, Republicans are rooting for an all-out economic collapse so they can seize power again in 2024. And if there is no collapse, they'll tell you we're on the precipice of one, and to be afraid.