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Re:The grid isn’t ready for 300M EVs by 2030 by throwaway50606 on Saturday May 06, 2023 @12:52PM (#35843098)
Where? I haven't seen anyone upgrading all the powerlines and power stations around my home... I haven't even seen any plans to do so. The local power distribution monopoly says it can't be done unless they raise prices 5x - which nobody wants to pay.

Also, power generation - if everyone wants to charge at night, we need to completely change the concept and stop the move to solar energy in favor of nuclear.

Re:The grid isn’t ready for 300M EVs by 2030 by nostrademons on Saturday May 06, 2023 @01:39PM (#35843575)
It's just not happening near your home (probably intentionally). Go down to the Mojave desert between Barstow and Vegas and there are massive solar farms built over the last decade. Same with the California mountain passes and wind energy - there are large wind farms on the Altamont, Pacheco, Tehachapi, and San Gorgonio passes. Many of these are also getting large upgrades with more energy-efficient turbines, eg. the Pacheco Pass windfarm (18 MW, 162 turbines, built in the early 1980s) is getting upgraded in 2023 to 147.5 MW and 200 MWh of battery storage with fewer turbines.

Also I think that workplace charging is the future of EVs. With the peak of the duck curve at mid-day, the obvious way to match that up to battery demand is to provide incentives for ubiquitous EV chargers in office parking lots, as well as charging the consumer for electricity consumed by their car.

Re:The grid isn’t ready for 300M EVs by 2030 by throwaway50606 on Saturday May 06, 2023 @01:44PM (#35843623)
Well, that's US. I am in much more densely populated Central Europe - several orders of magnitude compared to California. For most people here, workplace is 15-30 minutes walk/public transit away, that's not going to solve anything about car charging.

Wind is now opposed by people here because it ruins the landscape. Funny but it's what it is. And there's not enough physical space for solar arrays of this size.

Re:The grid isn’t ready for 300M EVs by 2030 by ductsurprise on Saturday May 06, 2023 @02:03PM (#35843769)
"For most people here, workplace is 15 minutes walk/public transit away,..."

Curiously, how many cars need charging(at night even) in this area? Maybe I missed the intent behind your comment.

But it doesn't sound like there is much daily driving.

Perhaps "...hands wet on the wheel..." like in the Golden Earring song often? )))

Re:The grid isn’t ready for 300M EVs by 2030 by throwaway50606 on Saturday May 06, 2023 @02:09PM (#35843818)
People don't use the car to go to work, but they use it a lot after they come home. Families with children use their cars a lot. Even with good public transport, handling affairs of a family of 5 takes a lot of time on the bus - so people use the car to go shopping, drive the kids to their after-school sports/clubs, visit grandparents etc.

Many households have multiple cars - one or two for the parents, then maybe one for the eldest child that still lives with the parents. Each car is used daily or almost daily.

There definitely is less daily driving per vehicle - but there's much more vehicles per square kilometer.

Re:The grid isn’t ready for 300M EVs by 2030 by nostrademons on Saturday May 06, 2023 @01:49PM (#35843669)
If people are walking or taking public transit anyway, you don't have a vehicle problem in the first place.
Re:The grid isn’t ready for 300M EVs by 2030 by throwaway50606 on Saturday May 06, 2023 @01:53PM (#35843699)
Oh, we most certainly do. Look at how much energy in the form of gas/diesel is used in Europe - it's definitely not insignificant. The average household has almost 2 cars, many have 3 - and they use them, just not to get to work.

IMHO the usage patterns and the population density make this a much harder problem here than in the US.

Re:The grid isn’t ready for 300M EVs by 2030 by brazzy on Saturday May 06, 2023 @03:10PM (#35844438)
> Well, that's US. I am in much more densely populated Central Europe - several orders of magnitude compared to California.

The average population density of California is 250 per square mile, for Germany it's 620. Considerably less than one order of magnitude in difference.

> For most people here, workplace is 15-30 minutes walk/public transit away, that's not going to solve anything about car charging.

If people are not driving to work, their cars can charge at home during the day, so it's already solved.

> And there's not enough physical space for solar arrays of this size.

There most certainly is. People overestimate the required space to a ridiculous degree.

Re:The grid isn’t ready for 300M EVs by 2030 by throwaway50606 on Saturday May 06, 2023 @03:35PM (#35844673)
I don't live in Germany. Germany is a large state with a lot of empty space. I live in a much smaller, much more densely populated state.

Anyways, the average is deceiving - I think you should compare the average of a city like Berlin or Munich or Warsaw or Amsterdam to cities like Los Angeles or San Francisco, not Germany to California.

People here live in very dense cities with empty space in between, you don't have that in US cities which are mostly long stretched of single-family households. We don't have single-family households at all except for the few villas of the ultra-rich and the few people living in the villages around the cities.

> If people are not driving to work, their cars can charge at home during the day, so it's already solved.

That's not solved at all! That's exactly where the issue is - The grid isn't able to provide that much power. It's already nearly overloaded. It would need significant capacity upgrades and the people here don't want to pay for it.

Re:The grid isn’t ready for 300M EVs by 2030 by akira2501 on Saturday May 06, 2023 @02:15PM (#35843879)
Except between 2021 and 2022 california lost 3GW of generation capacity. They're building new plants at the same time they're taking other ones offline and the totals aren't increasing.

This is probably why California continues to warn that rolling blackouts may become a thing. They raised that specter last year, and they're preparing to do it again this year.

Total system capacity is not improving at a rate commensurate with the forced adoption of EVs in the state.

Re:The grid isn’t ready for 300M EVs by 2030 by mulmen on Saturday May 06, 2023 @03:09PM (#35844435)
How much capacity are they building and how much more do they plan to take offline? Why should we assume linear trends in a revolutionary time?
Re:The grid isn’t ready for 300M EVs by 2030 by akira2501 on Saturday May 06, 2023 @03:25PM (#35844562)
The trend was a net increase in capacity from 2011 to 2017. From 2017 until today the trend has been a net decrease in capacity. There were 206GW available in 2017, there were 194GW available in 2022. Which is a 6% loss overall.

Which may be fine on it's own, but if you're planning on bringing a bunch of new demand on to the grid, you're headed towards an uncomfortable corner.

Re:The grid isn’t ready for 300M EVs by 2030 by mulmen on Saturday May 06, 2023 @08:37PM (#35846708)
My question is “how much capacity is in the pipeline?” These projects happen on the scale of years. Looking at current and past trends doesn’t tell the whole story.
Re:The grid isn’t ready for 300M EVs by 2030 by akira2501 on Sunday May 07, 2023 @02:23AM (#35848436)
The answer is "not enough." The states dual mandates of "electrify all cars" and "green all the energy" are, again, reaching an ugly corner. This is not controversial at all.

https://calmatters.org/environment/2023/01/california-electr...

Re:The grid isn’t ready for 300M EVs by 2030 by mbgerring on Saturday May 06, 2023 @12:58PM (#35843166)
In many, many places all over the world every day, just maybe not in your backyard just yet. Your local power distribution company is lying, and if you want to solve a fun problem you could get into the weeds and figure out how to work around them.
Re:The grid isn’t ready for 300M EVs by 2030 by throwaway50606 on Saturday May 06, 2023 @01:01PM (#35843214)
Not really my problem - I have a car for long distance trips only and that's going to be diesel at least for another decade or two.
Re:The grid isn’t ready for 300M EVs by 2030 by huijzer on Saturday May 06, 2023 @01:30PM (#35843485)
Global warming is your problem just like it is everyone’s problem
Re:The grid isn’t ready for 300M EVs by 2030 by throwaway50606 on Saturday May 06, 2023 @01:35PM (#35843533)
Diesel doesn't have to be fossil. Unfortunately, I can't make them switch to algae. But I'd be OK with paying more for it, if it was available. Current electric cars make my regular long distance trips impossible, so that's really not an option. Yes, I considered an online call.
Re:The grid isn’t ready for 300M EVs by 2030 by thomasmg on Saturday May 06, 2023 @03:05PM (#35844393)
Non-fossil diesel is going to be very expensive... The alternative is battery swap stations. Nio seems to be successful with that.
Re:The grid isn’t ready for 300M EVs by 2030 by throwaway50606 on Saturday May 06, 2023 @03:30PM (#35844613)
I wonder if that could work on my 1200km-long trip. It'd have to be a truly pan-European company and network. So far we don't even have telecoms like that - I switch between 3 different national networks during the trip... But on the other hand, the Tesla Supercharger network spans the route, so why not I guess.
Re:The grid isn’t ready for 300M EVs by 2030 by ajpgrealish on Saturday May 06, 2023 @12:59PM (#35843179)
Upgrading the power lines isn't the full answer, certainly some upgrades will be required, but the wires are designed for peak demand. EVs have flexibility, and can mostly be charged in non-peak times, drastically reducing the powerline and power station upgrades required.

This flexibility has to be managed, and there are many companies working on this. For example: https://ev.energy/

Re:The grid isn’t ready for 300M EVs by 2030 by throwaway50606 on Saturday May 06, 2023 @01:07PM (#35843275)
The energy requirements seem high enough that it'd create a new, even higher peak during the night...
Re:The grid isn’t ready for 300M EVs by 2030 by goodcanadian on Saturday May 06, 2023 @01:47PM (#35843642)
I did a back of the envelope calculation some time back for both Canada and the UK (I imagine the US numbers are proportionally similar to Canada). If we replace all private passenger cars with EVs, using average mileage, it increases annual electricity demand by about 20%. The difference between daytime peak and nighttime off peak is more than 20%. In a lot of cases, there will be no need at all for new power plants or distribution networks. The reality, of course, is more complicated as we are electrifying much more than passenger cars.

You better believe, however, that the distribution networks are planning around this. I was in a meeting with someone from the National Grid (UK central grid authority) who is responsible for planning for the transition. Basically, all new housing developments are being provisioned assuming heat pumps and EV chargers. Existing areas are being monitored and upgraded as they near the grid limits. Plans go out years in advance. It is a lot of work, but I am confident that it is being well managed. I cannot say that everywhere is as well managed, but I think it is safe to assume that many of these people and organisations do, in fact, know what they are doing. It sounded like the biggest problem in the UK was NIMBYs fighting against the new distribution networks needed to land the power from the offshore wind farms which are rapidly replacing the old fossil fuel generators.

Re:The grid isn’t ready for 300M EVs by 2030 by throwaway50606 on Saturday May 06, 2023 @01:50PM (#35843678)
NIMBY is indeed the issue here as well. People don't want wind and solar arrays and they don't want to pay even 20% more for electric distribution or electricity itself.

The power distribution company is competent, I have full confidence in that. Yes, they have plans and know what they're doing and what's coming - but they need money to do it, and they're not going to get it anytime soon.

At least this country is very pro-nuclear.

Re:The grid isn’t ready for 300M EVs by 2030 by yazaddaruvala on Saturday May 06, 2023 @01:07PM (#35843272)
Upgrading is only one way to achieve this.

The most likely solution is house battery backups attached to a virtual grid.

https://youtu.be/_UJiglrYgJY

Re:The grid isn’t ready for 300M EVs by 2030 by fourseventy on Saturday May 06, 2023 @12:57PM (#35843164)
So because you don't see anyone upgrading the powerlines by your house that means that there is no work taking place on the power grid?
Re:The grid isn’t ready for 300M EVs by 2030 by Arcanum-XIII on Saturday May 06, 2023 @01:10PM (#35843303)
There’s none in the Brussel area of Belgium. In fact, we’re stuck for the foreseeable future to a grid at 3x220 (nearly the only one in the world) because it’s too costly to update the network, cabin and so on. We’re speaking about industrial level of power delivery to charge all those EV. Things need to change at a huge scale and the operator are not ready for that. Source ? I discussed that with my operator for high power need - their answer was to move elsewhere.
Re:The grid isn’t ready for 300M EVs by 2030 by SECProto on Saturday May 06, 2023 @01:32PM (#35843501)
I was curious about the "grid at 3x220" mention so I did some research. Couldn't find what you meant by this, but did find a page from the electric utility in Brussels explicitly saying there are no problems or work required by the EV conversion plans by 2030.

https://www.sibelga.be/en/about-sibelga/projects-challenges/...

Re:The grid isn’t ready for 300M EVs by 2030 by martijnvds on Saturday May 06, 2023 @02:54PM (#35844286)
Parts of Belgium have 3 phase power with 220V between phases, and no neutral. And protective earth of course.

The rest of Europe has 230V, 3 phases + neutral, with 400V between phases.

Re:The grid isn’t ready for 300M EVs by 2030 by throwaway50606 on Saturday May 06, 2023 @12:59PM (#35843188)
Yes, exactly. Where I live it's a political thing so I'd know. The situation now is that they say they're not going to do it because people oppose the higher prices.

They even stopped allowing people to connect their solar arrays without large batteries because the grid is that overloaded.

(of course they're doing work on it - but definitely not the sort of work required to allow everyone to charge their 1-3 cars per household).

Re:The grid isn’t ready for 300M EVs by 2030 by notatoad on Saturday May 06, 2023 @01:20PM (#35843387)
the power lines around my house got upgraded last summer.

if we think that's somehow relevant here.