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Re:The grid isn’t ready for 300M EVs by 2030 by nostrademons on Saturday May 06, 2023 @01:39PM (#35843575)
It's just not happening near your home (probably intentionally). Go down to the Mojave desert between Barstow and Vegas and there are massive solar farms built over the last decade. Same with the California mountain passes and wind energy - there are large wind farms on the Altamont, Pacheco, Tehachapi, and San Gorgonio passes. Many of these are also getting large upgrades with more energy-efficient turbines, eg. the Pacheco Pass windfarm (18 MW, 162 turbines, built in the early 1980s) is getting upgraded in 2023 to 147.5 MW and 200 MWh of battery storage with fewer turbines.

Also I think that workplace charging is the future of EVs. With the peak of the duck curve at mid-day, the obvious way to match that up to battery demand is to provide incentives for ubiquitous EV chargers in office parking lots, as well as charging the consumer for electricity consumed by their car.

Re:The grid isn’t ready for 300M EVs by 2030 by throwaway50606 on Saturday May 06, 2023 @01:44PM (#35843623)
Well, that's US. I am in much more densely populated Central Europe - several orders of magnitude compared to California. For most people here, workplace is 15-30 minutes walk/public transit away, that's not going to solve anything about car charging.

Wind is now opposed by people here because it ruins the landscape. Funny but it's what it is. And there's not enough physical space for solar arrays of this size.

Re:The grid isn’t ready for 300M EVs by 2030 by ductsurprise on Saturday May 06, 2023 @02:03PM (#35843769)
"For most people here, workplace is 15 minutes walk/public transit away,..."

Curiously, how many cars need charging(at night even) in this area? Maybe I missed the intent behind your comment.

But it doesn't sound like there is much daily driving.

Perhaps "...hands wet on the wheel..." like in the Golden Earring song often? )))

Re:The grid isn’t ready for 300M EVs by 2030 by throwaway50606 on Saturday May 06, 2023 @02:09PM (#35843818)
People don't use the car to go to work, but they use it a lot after they come home. Families with children use their cars a lot. Even with good public transport, handling affairs of a family of 5 takes a lot of time on the bus - so people use the car to go shopping, drive the kids to their after-school sports/clubs, visit grandparents etc.

Many households have multiple cars - one or two for the parents, then maybe one for the eldest child that still lives with the parents. Each car is used daily or almost daily.

There definitely is less daily driving per vehicle - but there's much more vehicles per square kilometer.

Re:The grid isn’t ready for 300M EVs by 2030 by nostrademons on Saturday May 06, 2023 @01:49PM (#35843669)
If people are walking or taking public transit anyway, you don't have a vehicle problem in the first place.
Re:The grid isn’t ready for 300M EVs by 2030 by throwaway50606 on Saturday May 06, 2023 @01:53PM (#35843699)
Oh, we most certainly do. Look at how much energy in the form of gas/diesel is used in Europe - it's definitely not insignificant. The average household has almost 2 cars, many have 3 - and they use them, just not to get to work.

IMHO the usage patterns and the population density make this a much harder problem here than in the US.

Re:The grid isn’t ready for 300M EVs by 2030 by brazzy on Saturday May 06, 2023 @03:10PM (#35844438)
> Well, that's US. I am in much more densely populated Central Europe - several orders of magnitude compared to California.

The average population density of California is 250 per square mile, for Germany it's 620. Considerably less than one order of magnitude in difference.

> For most people here, workplace is 15-30 minutes walk/public transit away, that's not going to solve anything about car charging.

If people are not driving to work, their cars can charge at home during the day, so it's already solved.

> And there's not enough physical space for solar arrays of this size.

There most certainly is. People overestimate the required space to a ridiculous degree.

Re:The grid isn’t ready for 300M EVs by 2030 by throwaway50606 on Saturday May 06, 2023 @03:35PM (#35844673)
I don't live in Germany. Germany is a large state with a lot of empty space. I live in a much smaller, much more densely populated state.

Anyways, the average is deceiving - I think you should compare the average of a city like Berlin or Munich or Warsaw or Amsterdam to cities like Los Angeles or San Francisco, not Germany to California.

People here live in very dense cities with empty space in between, you don't have that in US cities which are mostly long stretched of single-family households. We don't have single-family households at all except for the few villas of the ultra-rich and the few people living in the villages around the cities.

> If people are not driving to work, their cars can charge at home during the day, so it's already solved.

That's not solved at all! That's exactly where the issue is - The grid isn't able to provide that much power. It's already nearly overloaded. It would need significant capacity upgrades and the people here don't want to pay for it.

Re:The grid isn’t ready for 300M EVs by 2030 by akira2501 on Saturday May 06, 2023 @02:15PM (#35843879)
Except between 2021 and 2022 california lost 3GW of generation capacity. They're building new plants at the same time they're taking other ones offline and the totals aren't increasing.

This is probably why California continues to warn that rolling blackouts may become a thing. They raised that specter last year, and they're preparing to do it again this year.

Total system capacity is not improving at a rate commensurate with the forced adoption of EVs in the state.

Re:The grid isn’t ready for 300M EVs by 2030 by mulmen on Saturday May 06, 2023 @03:09PM (#35844435)
How much capacity are they building and how much more do they plan to take offline? Why should we assume linear trends in a revolutionary time?
Re:The grid isn’t ready for 300M EVs by 2030 by akira2501 on Saturday May 06, 2023 @03:25PM (#35844562)
The trend was a net increase in capacity from 2011 to 2017. From 2017 until today the trend has been a net decrease in capacity. There were 206GW available in 2017, there were 194GW available in 2022. Which is a 6% loss overall.

Which may be fine on it's own, but if you're planning on bringing a bunch of new demand on to the grid, you're headed towards an uncomfortable corner.

Re:The grid isn’t ready for 300M EVs by 2030 by mulmen on Saturday May 06, 2023 @08:37PM (#35846708)
My question is “how much capacity is in the pipeline?” These projects happen on the scale of years. Looking at current and past trends doesn’t tell the whole story.
Re:The grid isn’t ready for 300M EVs by 2030 by akira2501 on Sunday May 07, 2023 @02:23AM (#35848436)
The answer is "not enough." The states dual mandates of "electrify all cars" and "green all the energy" are, again, reaching an ugly corner. This is not controversial at all.

https://calmatters.org/environment/2023/01/california-electr...