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Re:US Construction worker productivity has dropped 40% in th... by nxm on Monday January 23, 2023 @12:56PM (#34492403)
But people still want and yell for “affordable housing”. Can’t have your cake and eat it too
Re:US Construction worker productivity has dropped 40% in th... by thereddaikon on Monday January 23, 2023 @01:11PM (#34492608)
Affordable housing has little to do with the cost of building the house.
Re:US Construction worker productivity has dropped 40% in th... by autokad on Monday January 23, 2023 @01:42PM (#34493056)
I am pretty sure it does. Lets assume an income of 32,000$ (~median US income) and 30% to pay for housing. That gives them 9,300$/year for a mortgage or 775$. with a 7% interest rate, that means the person would not be able to easily afford to buy a new home > 175,000$.

There are lots of levers that determine if a person can afford a home. income, interest rates, % income that goes towards housing, etc. But its obvious cost of building the home plays a factor.

Re:US Construction worker productivity has dropped 40% in th... by ethanbond on Monday January 23, 2023 @01:47PM (#34493138)
In all high cost of living areas, the cost of land is the much more relevant factor. Even when people say, "oh no it's the cost of goods or the labor," they're talking about land.

Go compare the costs of identical pieces of plywood from the Home Depot on West 23rd Street in Manhattan and the Home Depot in Jersey City, directly across the river.

Manhattan: $76; Jersey City: $37

Is that the cost of shipping a piece of plywood an additional 3-10 miles? Is it taxes?

It's the rent.

Re:US Construction worker productivity has dropped 40% in th... by SideQuark on Monday January 23, 2023 @01:22PM (#34492790)
So the cost of a house doesn't factor into affordable housing? Care to explain?
Re:US Construction worker productivity has dropped 40% in th... by NegativeLatency on Monday January 23, 2023 @01:44PM (#34493101)
I suspect they're talking about how single family zoning results in only having more expensive places to live.

Even if you build a "cheap" single family house that's still going to be more expensive than some equally cheaply built townhomes, or apartments because of stuff like parking requirements and minimum setbacks.

Re:US Construction worker productivity has dropped 40% in th... by HEmanZ on Monday January 23, 2023 @01:22PM (#34492797)
In Manhattan or San Francisco? Probably not. But in most of the gigantic, sprawling USA, I suspect affordable housing absolutely has everything to do with cost of building a house.
Re:US Construction worker productivity has dropped 40% in th... by monocasa on Monday January 23, 2023 @01:41PM (#34493047)
Most of the places where houses are already so cheap that the price of actually building a house is a blocker for affordable housing typically have a large glut of unwanted property from population drained to other areas.
Re:US Construction worker productivity has dropped 40% in th... by ericmay on Monday January 23, 2023 @01:39PM (#34493034)
If I had to guess it's not so much the actual cost of building the house as it is the profit margin of those who are building homes. Why build a $200,000 "starter home" when you can build a $478,000 home with gigantic margin on "luxury" trim like cheap granite countertops and "hardwood" floors for roughly the same cost? And then once you get the ugly design down you can just copy and paste it with few adjustments and save even more money.

Unfortunately we have bad incentives aligned here versus stated goals.

Manhattan and San Francisco are like Japan and Argentina in economics. They're just not the same market as most places. In Manhattan in particular the value really is the land.

Re:US Construction worker productivity has dropped 40% in th... by rtkwe on Monday January 23, 2023 @01:57PM (#34493284)
Cities still hold a large portion of the population of the US and a lot of jobs can't just be done remotely even if employers actually adopted remote work which many really really don't want to. Housing isn't just a problem in Manhattan and SF it's hitting cities and suburbs everywhere.
Re:US Construction worker productivity has dropped 40% in th... by mindslight on Monday January 23, 2023 @02:24PM (#34493648)
Go tour some unincorporated land in the Southwest and you'll see how cheaply homes can be built. The problem is that once you're spread out enough to be able to do that, the resources required for daily living have gone up significantly because they're no longer amortized over population density and time. And that same gradient applies to suburbs/ruralish areas with building codes.

Building a bunch of housing in the middle of nowhere for unhoused people isn't going to work unless you also provide them heating, transportation, etc. The least expensive way of doing that is to make it dense like a city. At which point you're just building a planned city, which is fine, but not particularly in the purview of the US.

Re:US Construction worker productivity has dropped 40% in th... by thereddaikon on Monday January 23, 2023 @03:30PM (#34494546)
In my modestly sized city nowhere near California or New York the problem has nothing to do with building costs and predates the rising costs of building materials. It has everything to do with poor city planning and a lack of building permits for middle income housing. Plenty of over priced McMansions and plenty of half occupied apartments. Not enough normal houses. So the market became irrational. People buying houses site unseen even before COVID. And property values going way up.

Another contributor to the problem was outside speculators buying residential properties. Specifically Berkshire Hathaway and Zillow come to mind. But I'm sure others were doing it too. It should be illegal.

Re:US Construction worker productivity has dropped 40% in th... by goodSteveramos on Monday January 23, 2023 @01:09PM (#34492581)
Immigrant labor does not carry their own housing on their backs. It competes in the housing market for homes built by past generations of the native born.
Re:US Construction worker productivity has dropped 40% in th... by galdosdi on Monday January 23, 2023 @01:14PM (#34492648)
Very true. That said, to be fair, the average poor undocumented immigrant demands far less space (simply because that's what they can get under the circumstances). Living multiple unrelated people to a room is not unusual, ie, even more cramped than college students, NYC 20 something year olds, etc.
Re:US Construction worker productivity has dropped 40% in th... by harvey9 on Monday January 23, 2023 @01:51PM (#34493192)
If I am an unprincipled landlord then it may be in my best interest to change from renting to families to renting to sharers. Four working adults may be able to pay more in total than two parents supporting two children can.
Re:US Construction worker productivity has dropped 40% in th... by goodSteveramos on Monday January 23, 2023 @02:28PM (#34493693)
Exactly. This is how immigration has totally screwed family formation and depressed birth rates for Americans. Young couples cant afford to buy or rent a home in their own city and have to either delay marriage to live with their parents or abandon their families and lifelong friends to move somewhere with lower cost of living. All so employers can go 40 years with giving workers a raise.
Re:US Construction worker productivity has dropped 40% in th... by mindslight on Monday January 23, 2023 @03:00PM (#34494130)
I had to read these comments twice, because I had assumed the "families" were the immigrants and the "four working adults" were yuppies, both in line with my own experience. It's not immigration that has screwed over family formation - it's the housing racket itself, backed up by oppressive monetary policy that sucks real wealth into the financial industry. Making home ownership into a (guaranteed) investment combined with the individualist ideal of everyone needing their own house has done the equivalent of making everyone start off life with significant debt, and the time to pay it off becomes ever longer.
Re:US Construction worker productivity has dropped 40% in th... by harvey9 on Monday January 23, 2023 @04:31PM (#34495368)
It's both, at different market segments. Four yuppies (who are sometimes skilled visa-holders) sharing a higher end place, or four less well-off sharers (who are sometimes illegal migrants).
Re:US Construction worker productivity has dropped 40% in th... by mindslight on Monday January 23, 2023 @05:41PM (#34496154)
* * *
Re:US Construction worker productivity has dropped 40% in th... by goodSteveramos on Thursday January 26, 2023 @10:55AM (#34533324)
The purpose of a state is not to bring in foreigners to replace the native population. It even rises to a low level UN definition of genocide when the native population is not allowed to express its disapproval of that policy.
Re:US Construction worker productivity has dropped 40% in th... by mindslight on Friday January 27, 2023 @07:09PM (#34553561)
The "genocide" you speak of is due the general economic policies across the board, which have nothing to do with immigration. Shoehorning the overall problem into a myopic complaint about immigration doesn't accomplish much besides neutralizing your own political stake.
Re:US Construction worker productivity has dropped 40% in th... by slt2021 on Monday January 23, 2023 @03:18PM (#34494374)
birth is depressed in all developed nations, even those that experience net drain of population (aka negative immigration) for example Baltics and some Easter European countries.

Stop blaming everything on immigrants, pls. You have your own agency, dont play a victim and get your destiny in your own hands.

Immigrant labor is what keeps this country together, all those back breaking jobs that Americans consider themselves too good for and prefer sitting on the welfare/unemployment/etc - these jobs are done by immigrants while being paid peanuts.

Without immigrants the housing would be even more expensive and unaffordable, as well as all other services like plumbing, electricians, fast food/dining, hospitality, etc

Re:US Construction worker productivity has dropped 40% in th... by goodSteveramos on Wednesday January 25, 2023 @04:58PM (#34524733)
>Without immigrants the housing would be even more expensive

And wages would be commensurately higher. The greatest real income increase in America happened between 1940 and 1970 when there was virtually ZERO immigration.

Re:US Construction worker productivity has dropped 40% in th... by slt2021 on Monday January 23, 2023 @03:13PM (#34494292)
Immigrant labor is what builds/renovates housing for everybody across the country.

How many houses did you build, $username?

Touche?

Re:US Construction worker productivity has dropped 40% in th... by arcticbull on Monday January 23, 2023 @01:04PM (#34492509)
Affordable housing is just a zoning issue. The cost of construction is a tiny fraction of the cost of a new house in major metros.

The cake you can't have and eat at the same time is: "I want affordable housing" and "I want my house to be a good investment."

Re:US Construction worker productivity has dropped 40% in th... by seanmcdirmid on Monday January 23, 2023 @01:11PM (#34492606)
> Affordable housing is just a zoning issue. The cost of construction is a tiny fraction of the cost of a new house in major metros.

No it is not. Construction costs (material, labor) are sky high even if property costs are as well. Building high-end housing has always been more profitable than otherwise, low-end housing is simply high-end housing 20 or 30 years in the future.

Re:US Construction worker productivity has dropped 40% in th... by HarryHirsch on Monday January 23, 2023 @01:24PM (#34492836)
low-end housing is simply high-end housing 20 or 30 years in the future

That was maybe true in the past, but todays exurban sheetrock palaces are impossible to be turned into low-income/entry-level housing. It starts with the zoning requirements - are you really going to divide a 2500 sqft McMansion into a duplex without an epic zoning fight? And then there's the transportation/parking issue.

The real problem is that 1200 sqft entry level housing like it was built in the decade after WW2 isn't made any longer but is urgently needed.

Re:US Construction worker productivity has dropped 40% in th... by baremetal on Monday January 23, 2023 @02:18PM (#34493553)
The new 1200sf entry level house is 2000sf. I've built quite a few of them.

It is my understanding that builders are responding to the demand from home buyers, and people that can afford a (starter) home want 2000sf at minimum.

Also the costs of a house dont scale linearly[1]. A small home costs almost as much as a 2000sf home.

[1]https://www.togal.ai/blog/the-average-cost-to-build-a-house-...

Re:US Construction worker productivity has dropped 40% in th... by seanmcdirmid on Monday January 23, 2023 @02:23PM (#34493633)
> are you really going to divide a 2500 sqft McMansion into a duplex without an epic zoning fight? And then there's the transportation/parking issue.

Even in cities with little zoning requirements (like Houston, and heck, even Tokyo), you still see McMansions being built rather than low income housing. Low income housing is still old housing from the 80s/70s, and the problem you are referring to (that housing built today is not very convertible) is one for a sadder future.

> The real problem is that 1200 sqft entry level housing like it was built in the decade after WW2 isn't made any longer but is urgently needed.

Having shopped for homes in the last few years, there were plenty of 1200 SQFT options in the places I looked at, they were just $700-$800k rather than $900k-$1.1m. Condos are the more realistic options in that case (I saw one I liked for $700k with a reasonable HOA, my wife wasn't having it, however). She preferred a 900 SQF SFH over that, for reasons I couldn't figure out. All were still considered luxury however since they were almost brand new.

Note that yes, I live in an expensive area, but usually when we talk about affordable housing, we are talking about places where people want to live (vs. say Detroit).

Re:US Construction worker productivity has dropped 40% in th... by arcticbull on Monday January 23, 2023 @02:32PM (#34493744)
I did say "in major metros" - new construction in SF is about $440/sqft average vs a median listing price of almost $1000/sqft (average $964).

This is the highest in the world. [1, 2]

That's got nothing on San Mateo's $1264 average list price and $160-350 per square foot in construction costs. [2]

[1] https://cbreemail.com/rv/ff019c9050e5e959ddee96391147a04f828...

[2] https://www.statista.com/statistics/1234783/average-sales-pr...

Re:US Construction worker productivity has dropped 40% in th... by seanmcdirmid on Monday January 23, 2023 @03:05PM (#34494215)
> new construction in SF is about $440/sqft average vs a median listing price of almost $1000/sqft (average $964).

Isn't much of the listing price related to land costs (and then of course profit)? To say that construction costs are only 50% of the sold to cost doesn't tell me much, how much did they pay for the land on a SQFT basis?

Re:US Construction worker productivity has dropped 40% in th... by loandbehold on Monday January 23, 2023 @01:13PM (#34492633)
That's not even remotely true. Cost of construction is typically 60 to 80% of the cost. In high cost of living areas land is more expensive but so are construction costs.
Re:US Construction worker productivity has dropped 40% in th... by CydeWeys on Monday January 23, 2023 @01:15PM (#34492667)
There's no way. Most of the value of housing in expensive areas is the land itself, not the cost of the building.
Re:US Construction worker productivity has dropped 40% in th... by loandbehold on Monday January 23, 2023 @01:24PM (#34492829)
You are wrong. For instance in Southern California the cost to build new house is around $350 per sqft. Building 2000 sqft house is around $700K. House like that may sell for around 1 million. So that would be 70% construction and 30% land.
Re:US Construction worker productivity has dropped 40% in th... by notch656c on Monday January 23, 2023 @01:34PM (#34492970)
How does that happen? For 700k I could hire 2 skilled persons and 5 undocumented immigrants to work an entire year.

How long does it take to raise a house?

Re:US Construction worker productivity has dropped 40% in th... by rtkwe on Monday January 23, 2023 @02:00PM (#34493313)
It's not just labor in that cost there's materials to consider too.
Re:US Construction worker productivity has dropped 40% in th... by notch656c on Monday January 23, 2023 @02:04PM (#34493384)
Valid point. I looked up average materials cost for a 2000 sq ft house and it was estimated at $120k. Materials costs vary much less across the country than land and labor.

For 580k I could hire 2 skilled men and 3 undocumented immigrants for a year.

Something isn't right.

Re:US Construction worker productivity has dropped 40% in th... by rtkwe on Tuesday January 24, 2023 @10:15AM (#34504575)
There's a lot wrong but a lot of it is in your assumptions. For starters there's more than 2 skilled trades that go into a house for starters. Then by hiring them yourself either you or one of those people are going to be playing project manager to make sure they don't run out of materials which is a job in and of itself if you're not familiar with it.
Re:US Construction worker productivity has dropped 40% in th... by notch656c on Tuesday January 24, 2023 @11:23AM (#34505723)
Hey you can play fuck fuck games all day about how 5 person years of labor, almost half of that highly skilled (I'm accounting ~150k+ all in compensation) is not enough for a cookie cutter 2000 sq ft house. I'm calling bullshit; if it really is taking that much for a McClone basic bitch house then someone is taking the piss somewhere.
Re:US Construction worker productivity has dropped 40% in th... by loandbehold on Monday January 23, 2023 @02:21PM (#34493602)
It's not just manual labor. You need an architect, structural engineer. Getting all permits, environmental analysis. A lot of expensive "knowledge workers" involved. Then there are materials, rental of construction equipment, insurance. Developers who build large number of row houses at the same time can get costs down through economies of scale.
Re:US Construction worker productivity has dropped 40% in th... by notch656c on Monday January 23, 2023 @02:40PM (#34493862)
In the county next to me you can self certify and pretty promise you did all that "knowledge worker" shit. No one will ever check, the self certification just promises you did the stuff and the government promises they won't investigate. Somehow not everyone is dying in city-wide house fires.

Sounds like southern california done fucked themselves with over-regulating that stuff.

Re:US Construction worker productivity has dropped 40% in th... by asdff on Monday January 23, 2023 @06:09PM (#34496422)
It's because its used as a vehicle for bribery. See Jose Huizar the former LA city councilmember who pleaded guilty for bribery a few days ago. If its easy to get things built then no one would be paying you in paper bags of cash to get things built.
Re:US Construction worker productivity has dropped 40% in th... by gamblor956 on Monday January 23, 2023 @07:38PM (#34497367)
Our buildings are built to withstand earthquakes that could level other cities, because we have frequent earthquakes, and building codes were dramatically strengthened following the 1994 Northridge Quake.

A single Ritcher 5.8 quake in Virginia in 2011 caused $300 million in damage and disrupted utilities for days in 12 states. A series of earthquakes in 2019 (6.4, 5.4, and 7.1) in California caused so little damage that it's hard to find a tally. Power was knocked in some cities and restored within hours.

Yes, CA construction is more expensive. But it's also stronger and more resilient than the cheap crap in the county next to you.

Re:US Construction worker productivity has dropped 40% in th... by bsouthern on Monday January 23, 2023 @01:44PM (#34493100)
Plus the developers need to be able to make a profit after accounting for operational expenses, closing costs, etc. If there's no financial incentive, nobody is going to build houses.

This myth of zoning being the only factor is maddening. It's almost like the California folks think their housing market is the only one. Plenty of jurisdictions have loose zoning laws and we still see skyrocketing property values. There's interest rates and inflation to consider.

The cold hard truth is: when a bunch of people all want to live in the same areas, housing is going to be expensive. There's no way around it.

Re:US Construction worker productivity has dropped 40% in th... by monocasa on Monday January 23, 2023 @01:44PM (#34493103)
I was getting quotes in that range in Denver until recently, but now I've been getting quotes for around half that. I think they were trying to keep prices up after the supply chain issues have slowly been fixed and pocket the difference, but the market is slowly becoming more sane.

I expect it to drop to below $200k here once they finish rebuilding the thousand or so homes one of our recent wildfires took out.

Re:US Construction worker productivity has dropped 40% in th... by JKCalhoun on Monday January 23, 2023 @02:13PM (#34493496)
> House like that may sell for around 1 million.

Sure it wouldn't go for closer to $1.5M?

Re:US Construction worker productivity has dropped 40% in th... by SideQuark on Monday January 23, 2023 @01:24PM (#34492833)
Most houses aren't built where land is so expensive, so that's nearly irrelevant to the overall cost of housing in the US
Re:US Construction worker productivity has dropped 40% in th... by swagasaurus-rex on Monday January 23, 2023 @01:22PM (#34492801)
Could it be that goods and services cost more in high cost of living areas? Could it be that the price of land has second-order effects?
Re:US Construction worker productivity has dropped 40% in th... by arcticbull on Monday January 23, 2023 @02:48PM (#34493962)
I said "in major metros" - as I shared in a peer comment in SF (the highest construction costs in the world) it's about 40% and in San Mateo it's like 15-30% depending on finish.

Outside of major metros, zoning makes houses much bigger, twice as big on average as the 70s.

Re:US Construction worker productivity has dropped 40% in th... by CydeWeys on Monday January 23, 2023 @01:14PM (#34492652)
And building code too. There are plenty of cost-efficient designs built in Europe that can't be built here because we effectively require e.g. doubly-loaded corridors through stairwell requirements. The Europeans can put up more housing units on a smaller plot of land than we can, and for a cheaper price, because of these requirements.