Okay so it's basically a bail bond, sign over the $2M house to get the bondsman to post $250M bond.

What bondsman has $250M? Even if they did, why would they ever agree to this?

Isn't getting $2M from a defendant on a bail bond less than even the interest you could probably get by just putting your $250M in, say, a Treasury bond over the same timeframe?

For that matter, who's willing to bet $250M at 99-to-1 payout odds that a smart guy like SBF won't be able to disappear and pop up in Dubai or somewhere with no extradition to the US? (Remember SBF probably had the means, motive, opportunity and moral character to siphon a couple hundred million worth of BTC into a wallet there are no records of. And he knew for a long time FTX was going to collapse and he was probably being investigated.)

You also need to factor in the cost of plastic surgery and a new identity because I guarantee that if he 'just' skips to Dubai he won't be safe.

Nah, he just needs a haircut and decent wardrobe and no one would recognize him.

Plus a lot of shampoo or Dawn dishwashing detergent to wash out all that unctuous grease of effective altruism.

People say this kind of thing all the time but I'm yet to see an internet scammer get their comeuppance. That includes people who have been identified after running exit scamming darknet markets. My guess would be that when it comes to online fraud, people are more willing to swallow it because it doesn't seem so real.

And? Are you saying she's dead, got plastic surgery, is very good at hiding? Or what?

Any one of those I guess. I'm not going to make that call, Interpol has a warrant out and nothing happened as a result of that so if she's hiding she's very good at it (which may well include plastic surgery) and if she's dead she did in fact get her comeuppance and then some.

> Okay so it's basically a bail bond,

It is exactly a bond for bail, yes.

> sign over the $2M house to get the bondsman to post $250M bond.

No, there is no bondsman, the house is pledged directly to the court as security, his parents are additional surety for the $250M, and two other people are signing lesser bonds.

How exactly are his parents able to provide a surety for $250M? Do they have assets worth that much? If not, what's even the point of setting bail at $250M, if you only need to put up $4M in collateral?

Why does he get to do this, while someone with a $50,000 bail has to either put up the entire cash amount, or pay 10% in interest to a bondsman?

The court must be convinced that the parties involved are good for it or they would not have accepted the surety. The point of bail is just to ensure you show up to court, not to collect a windfall of profit for the state.

> his parents are additional surety for the $250M

This is an odd phrase.

So what happens if SBF disappears? Do the parents lose their $2M house? Lose their $2M house and become $248M in debt? Go to jail?

What keeps the whole family from simply going on a sudden vacation to Dubai and letting the court take their house? Losing one's childhood home is sad, but stolen Bitcoins can still buy a very nice replacement.

His parents are reported to have a $16M Bahamas property in their names, so they can just go to the other houses they bought with funds from their college professor salaries.

How can a Palo Alto house be worth only $2M? Or SBF’s parents had only $2M worth of equity on the house?

> maybe SBF found an intermediary who'd take significently less than 10% of the 250M.

The amount is large enough that even with 1% or 0.1% they could probably pay a professional bounty hunter to tail him for a week, reducing the odds of him escaping.