That didn't quite match my memory of Vinge, so fwiw I just checked the two earliest publications I know of:

> Such trend-curves... extrapolated 30 or 40 years they are so high and steep that even the most naive futurist discounts their accuracy.

(That's the closest therein to a specific prediction date, from 1983: https://imgur.com/a/HrUxGts)

> let me more specific: I'll be surprised if this event occurs before 2005 or after 2030.

From 1993: https://edoras.sdsu.edu/~vinge/misc/singularity.html

Okay, maybe I remembered it wrong, or someone else gave that range. Vinge has about 8 more years to be surprised.

Specifically he would be surprised if there isn't a computer with greater than human intelligence by 2030.

It's interesting that 29 years after he said that, and 8 years remaining on the timeline, it's not completely out of the realm of possibility.

One of the example possibilities mentioned in one of his essays or interviews was, what if with some poorly-understood tweaks to neural network training, it started working much better at scale? At the time I thought he was really reaching with that one.

Is there supposed to be an implication of "if it doesn't happen by 2020 I don't think it will ever happen" in the Vinge prediction?

No, it's he would be surprised if it happened later.

The phrase "I'll be surprised if this happens later" is ambiguous, I'm wondering if that was intentional.

It is always wise to make your date after your estimated death but before your customers.