So probably is good risk management to not include your GitHub ever when applying.
(and the inverse holds as well: if you do want to be evaluated at least in part based on something, consider putting it on your resume).
Still, I'd be pretty irritated to learn that someone decided not to even talk to me because I included a github link to some toy project that they didn't like.
I do think all hiring processes have a component of arbitrariness, so I don’t think it is necessarily a bad sign that a company quickly dismiss candidates from poorly-maintained GitHub accounts. I would gladly not show my GitHub and try to get the job showing my skills in some other way.
There are other processes where you must never fail. For those you want to minimize risks. If you want a job at X and nowhere else, this is your situation. But that's not very common.
Could go either way.
It seems pretty clear that the Github link in resumes has been cargo-culted for several years now.
Maybe a location thing. I am from India.
But if someone lists their Github on a resume, and then the whole account is just full of do-nothing forks and no original work, I'm going to be a little suspicious.
If recruiters start looking only at github accounts, dishonest job seekers will quickly learn to create fake github accounts, just as they present fake resumes now.
A few of the most successful and memorable hires I was a part of have real github accounts with something more than a bunch of forks or fancy profile readme.
In my opinion, it doesn’t matter if the content isn’t representative of what you want to do at work. Seeing that you’re curious and interested in building things, trying weird experiments, and so on is a strong data point in and of it’s self.
Here’s a similar example from an unrelated field: there’s a handyman that lives down the street from me. His humble home is neatly manicured and I often see him outside in the morning, dressed for the job and working on projects. Observing the pride he takes in his craft was a signal to me that he probably does good work. And after hiring him for a small project, my hunch was correct.
I am sure you can find valid candidates with your method, but also that you could be missing much better ones.
When I go to a GitHub as a hiring manager, I try to get as much signal as I can. You are scared that I'll solely judge you on the code, but I'm looking for metadata. Is this person interested in or exploring problems/technologies that are related to the problems/technologies we are using here? Oh, They are exclusively doing music based coding? INTERESTING. Let's talk about that in the interview.
Oh, They've contributed a bug report to an open source project, lemme see what that looks like. Nice, repro steps are clear.
And yes, some hiring managers are gonna say "welp, this candidate isn't an open source ninja so we don't want them." But that's not all hiring managers.
What is a big turn off for me personally is the "I'm gonna slap something on github to tick the box" group. I had someone submit a resume with a link to their website and a link to their github. The website was literally just a demo site, but they had changed all of the blog titles so it looked like real posts, but if you clicked through, it was all lorem ipsum. The GitHub was also just the code for this site.
I'll take a graveyard of personal exploration everyday over a half-baked sham site. (Note: They could have just been playing around BUT TELL ME THAT! Because it sure looked like an attempt to look the part.)