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Re:Vitalik Buterin is worried about crypto's future by jasode on Monday March 21, 2022 @09:31AM (#30753889)
>Ethereum is a single core global virtual computer with much less power than a typical Raspberry Pi that is available to anyone with access to an internet

All analogies are incomplete and imperfect but I'd say a more accurate mental model would be something like this:

Ethereum is like a global database _with_ stored procedures.

With this analogy, the database component would map to the blockchain : https://ycharts.com/indicators/ethereum_chain_full_sync_data...

The stored procedure language would map to the Ethereum programming language Solidity.

Computers worldwide run stored procedures to decide how to write the next block(s) in the database. (Consensus.)

Embedded in the above is the collective psychology and incentives that attract humans to do the above activity. (aka Proof-of-Work).

To see how simple explanations of Ethereum can leave out the mass psychology aspect, consider another example of an incomplete analogy: The Reddit Place experiment of 2017 ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Place_(Reddit) )

video of the pixels evolution: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XnRCZK3KjUY

We could say that Reddit Place 1000x1000 art canvas is a worldwide "Adobe Photoshop" that runs slower than a 1990s 486 computer ... which is sort of true... but doesn't really explain the whole phenomenon.

Re:Vitalik Buterin is worried about crypto's future by mwattsun on Monday March 21, 2022 @01:49PM (#30757366)
Reddit Place is really cool. Place, Hacker News, Reddit and other sites are like global Ouija boards that indicate what is currently interesting to the community mind. Wikipedia reflects what the community thinks is true about a particular subject. The item is fuzzy when it first comes to the attention of global mind but then gradually comes into focus.

Hacker News and Wikipedia are not any better if we add more computing power.

Ethereum is not like that. It requires bit accuracy since it deals with money and contracts. Ethereum would be have a lot more utility with more computing power.

Re:Vitalik Buterin is worried about crypto's future by thesausageking on Monday March 21, 2022 @09:37AM (#30753949)
No. You're being snarky and leaving out the main point of crypto: trust and coordination. Ethereum is the first shared computer that you can execute code with someone who's openly hostile towards you and guarantee that the code will execute and perform what it was written to do.

Think of it more like the patent system. A patent is just a publicly available description of your invention. You could write it up yourself and publish it to a website for $5 / mo, so why would you pay the >$10k it costs to work with a lawyer and file a patent?

It's not the description of the invention itself you're paying for, but the rights you get that make it worth it to file a patent.

In Ethereum, the "lawyers" and "patent examiners" are the other nodes in the network and the miners which enforce that the smart contract code ran as it was suppose to and can't be undone.

Re:Vitalik Buterin is worried about crypto's future by mwattsun on Monday March 21, 2022 @09:47AM (#30754063)
I'm not being snarky. I'm trying to understand the fundamentals because I'm all for the other aspects you describe but I'm wondering if it could be done with a more efficient computing system. Ethereum is not the final answer just like the 68000 was not the final computing chip (as beautiful as it was)
Re:Vitalik Buterin is worried about crypto's future by Spartan112 on Monday March 21, 2022 @09:57AM (#30754166)
You can have an efficient computing system, centralized databases or banks.

However, they can be manipulated at will by a centralized authority.

Now, if you want no one being able to manipulate it, you have Ethereum.

Re:Vitalik Buterin is worried about crypto's future by otterley on Monday March 21, 2022 @10:16AM (#30754391)
What underlying serious societal problem are we solving, though, really? Was the world awash in crime resulting from fraud via database manipulation?
Re:Vitalik Buterin is worried about crypto's future by the_snooze on Monday March 21, 2022 @10:30AM (#30754540)
Yeah, I'd like to know the answer to your question too. The original Bitcoin whitepaper proposed the decentralized ledger in order to enable Bitcoin transactions. But somehow that got warped into decentralized ledgers being the cure for all that ails the world.
Re:Vitalik Buterin is worried about crypto's future by emerged on Monday March 21, 2022 @11:24AM (#30755141)
Not to mention whatever fraud crypto might prevent is replaced by an entire fraudulent industry.
Re:Vitalik Buterin is worried about crypto's future by omarfarooq on Monday March 21, 2022 @09:57AM (#30754165)
How does the Raspberry Pi comparison factor in to your quest of understanding the fundamentals? How is that metric relevant to the fundamentals?

I mean, if that's a fundamental point to be made, shouldn't you be able to purchase a machine stronger than a Raspberry Pi and take over the Ethereum marketcap? Maybe you can charge less for gas and win marketshare that way. After all, people are paying for the Raspberry Pi processing power... right?

Re:Vitalik Buterin is worried about crypto's future by mwattsun on Monday March 21, 2022 @10:12AM (#30754340)
I've been a computer programmer for 40 years so I'm interested in the computing parameters of the machines I run
Re:Vitalik Buterin is worried about crypto's future by arka2147483647 on Monday March 21, 2022 @10:10AM (#30754307)
Not the parent, and not knowledgeable about Etherium.

But does't such limitations fundamentally question the global ambitions of Etherium? Could you really run a global digital economy with such limitations?

To me it seems an apt analogy about the capacity of Etherium, assuming it is correct?

Re:Vitalik Buterin is worried about crypto's future by omarfarooq on Monday March 21, 2022 @10:16AM (#30754396)
It's all sorts of incorrect, incomplete and misleading.

It also invokes the corollary that this virtual computer weaker than a Raspberry Pi is the most efficient computer processor on a realized dollar basis: what other computing system with less processing power than a Raspberry Pi is settling $10 billion dollars of finance per day?

Re:Vitalik Buterin is worried about crypto's future by newswasboring on Monday March 21, 2022 @12:16PM (#30755843)
It is settling 10 Billion dollars per day... barely. I don't think anyone can dispute that Ethereum network is buckling under the pressure (represented by rising gas prices). I am not sure if OP was trying to be snarky, but they do have a point. This system is not scaling well and the problem is how slow EVM is. It is valid to criticize that and I think this has even the insiders worried.
Re:Vitalik Buterin is worried about crypto's future by VectorLock on Monday March 21, 2022 @09:57AM (#30754169)
>execute code with someone who's openly hostile towards you and guarantee that the code will execute and perform what it was written to do

Its too bad people can't _write_ code safely with these adversaries without getting constantly rekt.

Re:Vitalik Buterin is worried about crypto's future by mschuster91 on Monday March 21, 2022 @10:03AM (#30754234)
> In Ethereum, the "lawyers" and "patent examiners" are the other nodes in the network and the miners which enforce that the smart contract code ran as it was suppose to and can't be undone.

You will run into problems though (and Ethereum has had way more than a fair share of these) if people fuck up their code so that others can exploit the code with behavior that was not supposed to happen.

In the real world, you and the counterparty would meet with your lawyers at a courthouse and have a good chance of winning if your claim is solid. In the cryptocoin world, there are no such entities by design, and every error you make cannot ever be recovered.

Re:Vitalik Buterin is worried about crypto's future by newswasboring on Monday March 21, 2022 @12:33PM (#30756112)
To people in the know, is anyone working on algorithmic consensus for dispute resolution? (I understand the blockchain itself is a dispute resolution where each miner can disagree on the chain etc. but I think you know what I mean).

I am not even sure how it looks like but there are people smarter than me in the world.

Re:Vitalik Buterin is worried about crypto's future by Sargos on Saturday March 26, 2022 @12:31AM (#30809250)
What are you asking for sounds like a lot like Kleros (https://kleros.io/) which is a decentralized and scalable justice system providing for all kinds of dispute resolution and arbitration.
Re:Vitalik Buterin is worried about crypto's future by yahn00 on Monday March 21, 2022 @10:12AM (#30754333)
Unfortunately nothing about the people backing crypto fosters trust, and the long development times for features that remain vapor make the coordination side seem sus.

It’s humans trying to pass off yet another unfalsifiable (to the masses who lack resources to vet its logic) system of distribution of information, and avoid accounting for “bugs” that don’t effect them.

Why is that? Because that’s all humans are capable of. We don’t literally repeat history but we have often repeated rewriting flawed social constructs with new flawed social constructs.

Just because the math fits neatly in a book does not mean it’s fits neatly into human agency.

Re:Vitalik Buterin is worried about crypto's future by paulpauper on Monday March 21, 2022 @09:43AM (#30754017)
what if the miners are hostile to you and censor the transaction.
Re:Vitalik Buterin is worried about crypto's future by Laforet on Monday March 21, 2022 @09:51AM (#30754107)
In that case you are screwed. The odds of every single validator turning against an individual is slim, however Ethereum is not above the act of rewriting history to undo certain transactions. They already did it once with the DAO hack and the market barely moved an eyelid when the supposedily permissonless and irrevocable world computer moves to protect those who are too big to fail.
Re:Vitalik Buterin is worried about crypto's future by aemreunal on Monday March 21, 2022 @10:32AM (#30754574)
It really doesn't seem slim to me. This article [0] (which was previously discussed on HN [1]) found that "just 0.1 percent of miners (about 50 operations) are responsible for half of all mining output". So it seems like a very real threat to me. I rarely hear anyone pro-crypto talk about this implicit assumption they make about the mining being "sufficiently distributed & diverse".

[0]: https://www.techspot.com/news/91937-bitcoin-largely-controll... [1]: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=29008910

Re:Vitalik Buterin is worried about crypto's future by emerged on Monday March 21, 2022 @11:26AM (#30755158)
What’s so bad about a bunch of shady companies in China having the capacity to completely take over a massive global financial system?
Re:Vitalik Buterin is worried about crypto's future by always2slow on Monday March 21, 2022 @09:50AM (#30754099)
Then other miners who aren't will do it for the money.

But really it's the pools who would decide and as long as they don't control 51% of the network hashrate they can't dictate.

Also the miners can just take their ball and go home, and they already have see: Ethereum Classic

Re:Vitalik Buterin is worried about crypto's future by vvillena on Monday March 21, 2022 @09:58AM (#30754174)
51% of miners need to be censoring you. If not, the transaction will eventually get in.
Re:Vitalik Buterin is worried about crypto's future by paulpauper on Monday March 21, 2022 @10:02AM (#30754225)
which is just 2 of them
Re:Vitalik Buterin is worried about crypto's future by vvillena on Monday March 21, 2022 @11:58AM (#30755585)
Please respect the HN guidelines: this response makes clear that you were not asking a question, but fishing for debate. Let's be better.
Re:Vitalik Buterin is worried about crypto's future by newswasboring on Monday March 21, 2022 @12:27PM (#30756028)
Allow me to be better. Top 3 mining pools control >51% of the hashrate today[1]. I can see 3 teams aligning to do whatever they want. I understand the standard argument is those pools actually represent thousands of individual miners, but the miners only have control over mining, not the selection of transactions (please correct me if I am wrong).

edit: [1] https://etherchain.org/miner

Re:Vitalik Buterin is worried about crypto's future by vvillena on Monday March 21, 2022 @04:02PM (#30759005)
You are right. Whoever controls the pool controls what goes into the mined blocks, so there's a chance they could cooperate to forbid certain types of transactions. Mining empty blocks in Ethereum is something that happens from time to time too, but usually, mining pools want to include as many transactions as possible in their blocks, as this increases profits. So yeah, it can happen in theory.

However, the move to PoS will probably change this, as a valid block containing a "banned" transaction can't be easily disputed even by a majority, as long as the block is correct. The only way to try to fight it is to burn lots of ETH, meaning any pool that engages in such behavior becomes weaker.

Re:Vitalik Buterin is worried about crypto's future by newswasboring on Tuesday March 22, 2022 @06:28AM (#30764513)
Exploring this further, PoS seems to give the impression you need to control 51% of all Eth to control the chain. But that doesn't seem to be true, you just need to controlled the majority staked eth, which will probably be a much smaller number than all Eth. This means at equivalent cost of maintaining a large pool, you can probably take over the block chain.

(Again, please correct me if I am wrong).

Re:Vitalik Buterin is worried about crypto's future by vvillena on Tuesday March 22, 2022 @11:01AM (#30766898)
Controlling 51% of all staked ETH is enough to launch some attacks, but the cost of the attack is way way higher than in PoW. The gist of it is that the community can reach a new consensus in which the malicious majority staked funds simply don't exist anymore. This means any single attack costs a lot of money, and there's a well-known recovery process to negate the attack and penalize the attacker.
Re:Vitalik Buterin is worried about crypto's future by newswasboring on Tuesday March 22, 2022 @12:51PM (#30768461)
Wouldn't this require a fork? I believe as eth gains adoption, forking will become less possible. I say this because asking big vendors/payment processors don't really have an incentive to change. Is there a way to do this, without forking the chain?
Re:Vitalik Buterin is worried about crypto's future by vvillena on Tuesday March 22, 2022 @01:21PM (#30768851)
It's indeed a fork. Ethereum has shown to embrace forking as the tool of choice to update their own consensus, thanks in part to the lesson learned with Bitcoin, where the lack of incentives to change the consensus have resulted in extreme conservatism that prevents most changes. Ethereum has the Ice Age built into their PoW algorithm, ensuring consensus has to be renewed periodically. I'm not aware if there exists a PoS equivalent to this.
Re:Vitalik Buterin is worried about crypto's future by newswasboring on Tuesday March 22, 2022 @01:31PM (#30768986)
I don't think Ice Age protocol solves our problem, especially in a PoS setting. Ice Age tries to incentivize a move by raising difficulty till its unprofitable, the only equivalent I can see is decreasing interest rates for staked tokens. But once someone is in control of the chain, they just have to be clever about stealing stuff without raising too many alarms. I believe more drastic measures will need to be taken and consensus will need to be made between actual humans and no protocol can help with this.
Re:Vitalik Buterin is worried about crypto's future by vvillena on Tuesday March 22, 2022 @03:22PM (#30770301)
"Stealing stuff" is not possible. All this time we've been talking about subtler avenues of attack such as delaying or banning transactions, or overpowering and replacing some of the blocks at the top of the chain.

Proposed blocks must conform to the rules. If not, bad faith actors can get their stake slashed by anyone else. Anyone doing anything outside that framework is not following consensus. Whatever they are doing, is not Ethereum. I'm not fully up to date on what could happen if part of the stakers keep on doing that, but I think that the result of that kind of contested fork would be that each part would be able to slash the funds of the opposing part in their own consensus. In short, it results in a split, with the good faith actors in one side. After that split, the good faith actors would now control 100% of the staked funds.

Btw, you're absolutely right on your last sentence. Consensus was and is always a social contract between humans. The protocol is just a neat way to distribute it.

Re:Vitalik Buterin is worried about crypto's future by newswasboring on Tuesday March 22, 2022 @03:59PM (#30770738)
Hmm... I was not aware that is how slashing works. So basically slashing would spontaneously result in a forked chain. At that point, how do people choose which chain to follow? Is that where human interaction comes in? As in, if enough people choose to follow one chain, that is the truth now. Even if people are running some nodes which follow other chains. Does this mean people who control the nodes are actually the ones who hold power?

Edit: BTW, isn't this what stealing a token would be?

> overpowering and replacing some of the blocks at the top of the chain.

Re:Vitalik Buterin is worried about crypto's future by vvillena on Tuesday March 22, 2022 @05:46PM (#30771993)
People choose their chain by choosing the software they run on their standard (non-mining, non-staking) nodes. Dishonesty requires custom-made software.

Regarding "stealing a token": remember that even in the case a block gets replaced by another, both have to be valid blocks, containing valid transactions. This is why the most famous attack is a just a "double spend attack" and not any kind of money steal. Problems with tokens, that is, transactions that run arbitrary code, happen due to bugs in such code, not because of fundamental issues with the protocol.

Re:Vitalik Buterin is worried about crypto's future by vvillena on Wednesday March 23, 2022 @05:53AM (#30776772)
I can't reply to your last comment, we're at the limit of comment nesting :)

Transactions are signed using public key cryptography. A miner can't modify a transaction present in the pool or make it up. Transactions need to be correct in order to be part of blocks.

Re:Vitalik Buterin is worried about crypto's future by newswasboring on Wednesday March 23, 2022 @08:21AM (#30777684)
This was the best conversion I have ever had about this topic. Now everything seems a bit more clear. Basically the only transactions we can "make up" is from wallets we already control because we will have the keys for it.
Re:Vitalik Buterin is worried about crypto's future by newswasboring on Wednesday March 23, 2022 @05:09AM (#30776522)
> Dishonesty requires custom-made software.

This is the bit I don't understand. A block is a set of transaction information which is chosen by the miner/staker. What's stopping them from just making it up? It will still be a valid transaction.

Re:Vitalik Buterin is worried about crypto's future by aliswe on Monday March 21, 2022 @10:28AM (#30754521)
where's the snark?
Re:Vitalik Buterin is worried about crypto's future by k__ on Monday March 21, 2022 @09:11AM (#30753706)
I had this impression too when I started reading about Ethereum.

I think, the mismatch is, while Ethereum is being sold as "the world computer" and being Turing complete, it's actually more narrow in scope, because if the points you just mentioned.

It's more of a decentralized and permissionless clearinghouse.

If you need storage, you wouldn't use Ethereum but IPFS/Filecoin, Skynet/Sia, or Arweave. For compute, you would use Akashnet (albeit a bad example here, but I don't know something better right now).

I don't know if there are plans to integrate features from other chains into Ethereum, to make it more general purpose, or if that's even possible. But right now multi-chain is where things are heading.

Re:Vitalik Buterin is worried about crypto's future by pram on Monday March 21, 2022 @09:32AM (#30753890)
Like using AWS, but worse in every imaginable way!
Re:Vitalik Buterin is worried about crypto's future by md2020 on Monday March 21, 2022 @09:44AM (#30754025)
AWS isn’t permissionless and decentralized, so no, it’s not at all like that. Stop with the snark.
Re:Vitalik Buterin is worried about crypto's future by k__ on Monday March 21, 2022 @09:43AM (#30754012)
In many ways, I would say.

If censor resitance and knowing who actually paid for a service are seen as valuable to enough people, it could have a future.

Re:Vitalik Buterin is worried about crypto's future by delusional on Monday March 21, 2022 @09:09AM (#30753688)
That's a fun analogy, but you're leaving out some stuff. For one, the virtual computer consumes 112.65TWh of power every year[1]. Importantly, the "gas" fees can only be paid in a special monopoly currency which you have to buy from a speculative market. IIRC you also have to pay for memory usage.

[1]: https://digiconomist.net/ethereum-energy-consumption/

Re:Vitalik Buterin is worried about crypto's future by onlyrealcuzzo on Monday March 21, 2022 @09:20AM (#30753796)
That's almost 0.5% of all energy in the world.

Are any other blockchains using close to as much energy as BTC and ETH?!?

Re:Vitalik Buterin is worried about crypto's future by rafale on Monday March 21, 2022 @09:24AM (#30753827)
Ethereum is moving to proof-of-stake this year. The environment argument is soon to become a non-issue.
Re:Vitalik Buterin is worried about crypto's future by shafyy on Monday March 21, 2022 @09:27AM (#30753856)
Ethereum has been moving to proof-of-stake this year for 5 years now. Will it happen some day? Probably. But we don't know how PoS will go for ETH once it has moved. Besides, there are many other negative exernalities that the move to PoS won't get rid of.
Re:Vitalik Buterin is worried about crypto's future by hunterb123 on Monday March 21, 2022 @09:33AM (#30753897)
> Will it happen some day?

It doesn't happen all at once, it's a transition. There are billions staked in ETH2 already.

> But we don't know how PoS will go for ETH once it has moved.

There's quite a few PoS coins that are working well, Algorand comes to mind.

> Besides, there are many other negative exernalities that the move to PoS won't get rid of.

Such as?

Re:Vitalik Buterin is worried about crypto's future by AlexandrB on Monday March 21, 2022 @09:57AM (#30754163)
> Such as?

This video[1] covers a bunch and doesn't even mention energy usage much. Off the top of my head: rampant fraud[2] (e.g. so-called rugs in the NFT space and stolen artwork being minted as NFTs), financialization of everything, strong incentives to build intrusive DRM to enable "true" NFT ownership, creating incentives to hoard vs. invest thanks to deflationary currency, and loss of privacy (everything on a public blockchain).

[1] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YQ_xWvX1n9g

[2] Oh and thanks to how blockchain technologies work, fraudulent transactions are often irreversible.

Re:Vitalik Buterin is worried about crypto's future by shafyy on Monday March 21, 2022 @09:43AM (#30754019)
> Such as?

Enabling fraud, enabling ransomware, enabling authoritarian dictators to enrich themselves. Furthermore there's still Bitcoin that will never move to PoS, and the popularity of ETH also swaps over to Bitcoin and other cryptos.

Yes, yes, there are also scams in fiat money blabla. The problem here is, that cryptos are a strictly zero-sum game and don't add any value to anybody except people who are able to dump their coins to the next greater fool. So why should we accept all these disproportionate externalities?

Re:Vitalik Buterin is worried about crypto's future by hunterb123 on Monday March 21, 2022 @09:48AM (#30754082)
Stolen credit cards and chargebacks are a big problem. Fiat currency has a whole slew of problems. Mastercard, Visa, Stripe and PayPal don't allow at risk products like in-game currencies, porn, etc. They frequently use their powers to cut off funding for certain political targets.

I don't think simply yelling "fraud" and "scams" is enough to dissuade people anymore. New talking point please.

Honestly the anti-crypto sentiment here is ridiculous. I hope people know that the same people preaching against it here are gobbling up crypto as fast as they can while trying to dissuade others.

Re:Vitalik Buterin is worried about crypto's future by shafyy on Monday March 21, 2022 @11:11AM (#30754990)
> I hope people know that the same people preaching against it here are gobbling up crypto as fast as they can while trying to dissuade others.

Only a person who extends their crypto-scam thinking to others would think this way. I can assure you that I don't hold any crypto, and that I'm pretty certain that the majority of outspoken crypto sceptics don't hold any crypto.

Re:Vitalik Buterin is worried about crypto's future by jakelazaroff on Monday March 21, 2022 @10:04AM (#30754244)
Why would anyone “gobbling up crypto as fast as they can” hurt the value of their investment by trying to dissuade others?
Re:Vitalik Buterin is worried about crypto's future by hunterb123 on Monday March 21, 2022 @10:18AM (#30754420)
Dissuading only hurts in the short run, it's good to keep the prices down if you want to long.

If you think it will be more lucrative in the future it helps to extend the current prices by investing while dissuading others to invest.

They'd have to get in at a later, much higher price in that scenario.

Re:Vitalik Buterin is worried about crypto's future by WrtCdEvrydy on Monday March 21, 2022 @10:05AM (#30754257)
> Enabling fraud, enabling ransomware, enabling authoritarian dictators to enrich themselves.

iTunes gift cards, iTunes gift cards, oil.

Can we ban those too?

Re:Vitalik Buterin is worried about crypto's future by otterley on Monday March 21, 2022 @10:17AM (#30754407)
Ahh, whataboutism, the gas fee equivalent of HN.
Re:Vitalik Buterin is worried about crypto's future by Tretiotrr on Monday March 21, 2022 @10:44AM (#30754707)
Weird strawman argument.

But yes. Let's ban it.

Re:Vitalik Buterin is worried about crypto's future by 300bps on Monday March 21, 2022 @09:51AM (#30754108)
I don't disagree that it's a transition but hash rate has only gone up:

https://ycharts.com/indicators/ethereum_network_hash_rate

Re:Vitalik Buterin is worried about crypto's future by AlexandrB on Monday March 21, 2022 @10:07AM (#30754271)
I don't know a ton about the subject, but I remember someone mentioning that existing Ethereum miners don't want to move to PoS[1] as it's a loss of income for them. Can anyone confirm/deny?

Incidentally, while searching for the topic I also found an article[2] from August 2021 with this quote:

> Meanwhile, crypto mining manufacturers like Bitmain and Innosilicon are on track to release new Ethereum mining machines this year, all while knowing that Ethereum’s transition to a PoS network is just five months away, effectively making those machines redundant.

I guess the manufacturers were right.

[1] https://old.reddit.com/r/ethereum/comments/ehpp8m/will_the_m...

[2] https://www.benzinga.com/markets/cryptocurrency/21/08/224855...

Re:Vitalik Buterin is worried about crypto's future by 300bps on Monday March 21, 2022 @10:50AM (#30754772)
Confirmed. Miners are angry about EIP-1559 that burned gas fees instead of paying them to miners and are even more angry about the transition to PoS where they will lose their income stream completely.

The computer I'm typing this on is using gminer to mine on the flexpool.io mining pool. But it's just using a computer I would've purchased anyway. Some miners have tens of thousands of dollars invested in mining equipment or more.

Re:Vitalik Buterin is worried about crypto's future by newacc9 on Monday March 21, 2022 @11:19AM (#30755081)
It takes like 18 months to recover the cost of the miners, plus maybe they've leased out a warehouse, and so forth -- so its a sunk cost situation.
Re:Vitalik Buterin is worried about crypto's future by always2slow on Monday March 21, 2022 @10:04AM (#30754238)
Your own link disproves you, look at the 5 year chart.
Re:Vitalik Buterin is worried about crypto's future by 300bps on Monday March 21, 2022 @10:14AM (#30754368)
Took me a minute to understand what you were talking about. The context of my claim was, "Since transitioning to PoS, hash rate has only gone up". You seem to think it's disproved by the fact that hashrate has gone slightly down for brief periods in the past even before the transition to PoS.

Hashrate has increased from 14.86 to 1001 Th/s in the past 5 years and is at an all-time high. Since "transitioning" to PoS, it has not gone down.

Re:Vitalik Buterin is worried about crypto's future by always2slow on Monday March 21, 2022 @10:38AM (#30754634)
So saying that "the hashrate has only gone up" implies the hashrate never goes down [between any comparison point], but you agree that over some comparison points as displayed by the five year graph the hashrate has gone down correct?

Yes, the hashrate graph has a positive slope over large time series, but it does go down at various points along the time series so therefore saying "the hashrate has only gone up" is a false statement.

Re:Vitalik Buterin is worried about crypto's future by 300bps on Monday March 21, 2022 @10:48AM (#30754750)
Respectfully, you are reading English words like a robot and completely ignoring the context of the conversation. Similarly, if I were to say, "I'm so hungry I could eat a horse" it would not be helpful for you to whip up calculations thereby proving my stomach is not large enough to accommodate the volume of horse meat necessary to make this true.

I have run into this in about 1 out of 50 interactions on HN over the years and I find it most helpful to point this out and mean no disrespect by it.

Re:Vitalik Buterin is worried about crypto's future by jakelazaroff on Monday March 21, 2022 @10:07AM (#30754276)
Just checked the five year chart. It proves GP correct. The hash rate has increased by two orders of magnitude since then.
Re:Vitalik Buterin is worried about crypto's future by 300bps on Monday March 21, 2022 @09:43AM (#30754016)
Ethereum is moving to proof-of-stake this year.

It was moving to PoS last year and the year before that. Now it's June, but I heard probably delayed to July.

One telling thing is that ETH miners not only haven't sold their GPUs they're continuing to buy more at greater than MSRP. It's unlikely there will be a good alternate coin to mine after ETH. Some are planning to move to ETC (Ethereum Classic) but it can't absorb the hashrate of ETH and be profitable.

ETC currently has 24.46 Th/s while ETH has 961.14 Th/s. ETC price has been going up dramatically in the last week ($25 to $40 per coin) but it would have to go up about 20x more to absorb that hash rate.

Re:Vitalik Buterin is worried about crypto's future by RealityVoid on Monday March 21, 2022 @09:54AM (#30754134)
ETH miners will continue to buy but that means nothing, really, because at some point they will be wrong.
Re:Vitalik Buterin is worried about crypto's future by hackerfromthefu on Monday March 21, 2022 @12:24PM (#30755981)
Well it does mean that people deeply involved and informed about Ethereum, who have SKIN IN THE GAME, don't believe the public information about the change.

Not surprising really, shell games with insider information being traded against the sheeple is a core aspect of the crypto industry. Who knows if this time is just like the last time and all the times before?

Re:Vitalik Buterin is worried about crypto's future by delusional on Monday March 21, 2022 @09:33AM (#30753901)
According to this Carl guy[1] POS eth will consume 2.62MW (or 22.9512GWh annualized) which is better, but still quite a lot of power for a single core raspberry pi.

[1]: https://blog.ethereum.org/2021/05/18/country-power-no-more/

Re:Vitalik Buterin is worried about crypto's future by Tenoke on Monday March 21, 2022 @09:37AM (#30753947)
I'm sure you understand how disingenious calling it 'a single core raspberry pi' is even if you dislike crypto. Please attempt building say a DEX with comparable guarantees, uptime and traffic if you believe they serve the same purpose.
Re:Vitalik Buterin is worried about crypto's future by delusional on Monday March 21, 2022 @09:51AM (#30754109)
I don't think I understand why it's disingenuous in the context of this conversation. Could you elaborate further for me?
Re:Vitalik Buterin is worried about crypto's future by Tenoke on Monday March 21, 2022 @11:47AM (#30755419)
Because it's like calling tents useless because of how much better flats are due to pipes, electricity, insuation and so on. In both cases you are focusing on some metrics while specifically ignoring the usecases where tents/Ethereum can be used in a way flats/pis cannot be.
Re:Vitalik Buterin is worried about crypto's future by delusional on Monday March 21, 2022 @02:04PM (#30757553)
Thanks for elaborating, but I disagree with your assertion that I'm being disingenuous.

When I compared Ethereum to a Raspberry pi I was continuing the comparison from the root comment. The point of the comment was that, although POS would produce a significant reduction in power consumption, it would still consume a significant amount of power compared to the computing power of the network.

Discussions about if Ethereum has extra utility that offsets that extra powerdraw is outside of this comment thread, since the restriction that consider Ethereum as a "global single core raspberry pi" are given by the root comment.

I didn't mean to (and don't think i did) present that in any tricky way, and I think you're projecting an argument onto my comments that I'm not making.

Re:Vitalik Buterin is worried about crypto's future by pibechorro on Monday March 21, 2022 @09:33AM (#30753909)
it was barely a valid arguement even on POW.
Re:Vitalik Buterin is worried about crypto's future by beecafe on Monday March 21, 2022 @08:57AM (#30753555)
More or less, with the addition that many people are running the computer in near lockstep allowing a consensus on the true global state of such a computer and so for its execution to be trusted.
Re:Vitalik Buterin is worried about crypto's future by throwaway568 on Monday March 21, 2022 @09:02AM (#30753609)
"single core global virtual computer with much less power than a typical Raspberry Pi"

As true as a legislature can be described as a pen + notebook - there is value in consensus.

Re:Vitalik Buterin is worried about crypto's future by mwattsun on Monday March 21, 2022 @09:13AM (#30753730)
I love pen and paper but I just took a look at the Build Back Better bill and it's almost 2500 pages with I'm guessing thousands of edits by hundreds of parties. Pen and paper wouldn't be my first choice for this task

https://www.congress.gov/bill/117th-congress/house-bill/5376...

Re:Vitalik Buterin is worried about crypto's future by benjaminwootton on Monday March 21, 2022 @09:06AM (#30753649)
Gas fees are about incentivising people to take part and disincentivising bad behaviour.

If you wanted to calculate pi obviously you wouldn’t do so on Ethereum.

If you wanted a globally distributed ledger then you need something like gas fees in place.

Re:Vitalik Buterin is worried about crypto's future by zucker42 on Monday March 21, 2022 @09:52AM (#30754119)
No one wants a globally distributed ledger. They want to send money from one person to another. Or, to use the example that motivated Vitalik, they want a record of the items they own in a video game. A globally distributed ledger is simply a tool to accomplish that. As long as Ethereum represents a "single core global virtual computer with much less power than a typical Raspberry Pi" (despite the fact that it utilizes an enormous amount of real computers), it is utterly incapable of solving those problems at any sort of scale.

Take Augur, for example. A prediction market without a trusted resolver seems pretty useful, but the fact that a blockchain can't handle any real world application on-chain meant that it was unusable.

Another example is that it's ridiculous on its face that CryptoKitties was able to bring Ethereum to its knees. People want to base real financial markets on this tech when a trading card game is able to congest the network and increase fees 10-fold?

Re:Vitalik Buterin is worried about crypto's future by WJW on Monday March 21, 2022 @08:58AM (#30753560)
It's not wrong. It's also a very slow immutable but globally accessible database that's more or less free to read but every write query costs money.
Re:Vitalik Buterin is worried about crypto's future by mwattsun on Monday March 21, 2022 @09:09AM (#30753687)
So essentially you may have thousands of computers trying to write to the same file at the same time so you implement a consensus mechanism to determine the final write, something like an n-way diff
Re:Vitalik Buterin is worried about crypto's future by bigtex88 on Monday March 21, 2022 @10:31AM (#30754552)
No. It's a worldwide state machine with permission-less read/write.
Re:Vitalik Buterin is worried about crypto's future by faangiq on Monday March 21, 2022 @05:30PM (#30759953)
Yep!
Re:Vitalik Buterin is worried about crypto's future by yannoninator on Monday March 21, 2022 @08:56AM (#30753549)
Yes.

And most (I would even count all) of the biggest cryptocurrencies use-cases are entirely wasteful.