I don't really know anything about his personal goals - he's an old man who will probably be dead in around 10 years. But it's difficult to see how even a successful conquest of Ukraine is a positive result. Russia would have gained some territory of minimal value at the cost of crushing sanctions.

There's no rational benefit, it's just the bizarre thinking that a physical buffer between Moscow and NATO is somehow helpful in a world with thousands of ICBMs.

Imagine Hawaii declared independence and gave the US Navy a lease on Pearl Harbor. Then 30 years later entered into a defense pact with China.

That's a terrible analogy.

Russia must have piece at any cost, doesn’t matter how many men, women, and children it has to kill to secure it!

Imagination is only thing you have in your argument.

There really should not be a rational benefit, perhaps only a symbolic benefit (not letting an enemy alliance set up camp on your doorstep).

On the flip side, it's ridiculous that the US and NATO leaders are willing to risk nuclear war over something symbolic with miniscule strategic value. If WW3 is started over something as foolish as this when all we had to say was 'Ukraine will never join NATO'.

In a way it is hypercritical to say Russia is overreacting when the US was extremely close to escalating to all-out war over the missiles in Cuba.

So the West is to blame for Putin’s irrationality now? What kind of a double-standard is that? How can we possibly negotiate rationally with a madman? Should we have just given him anything he said he wanted? Of course not.

It was never about NATO, that was just a fig leaf to people with terminal “both sides” mentality. This has always been sold to Russia has returning to its rightful place as a glorious empire. That’s Putin’s personal motivations as well and he was damn clear about it in his invasion-eve speech.

This is about liberal democracy versus ruthless authoritarianism, and if you repeat Kremlin talking points, you’ve chosen the side of ruthless authoritarianism. Russia faked evidence and used it as pretext for their invasion. This is a war of aggression based on misinformation.

Putin seems quite rational in the interviews I've seen. A much more rational clear-thinker in fact than the last couple US presidents. I think it is fair to call him a power-hungry, aggressive, ruthless authoritarian.

Even if NATO is just a fig leaf, why give it to him? Why give him the chess piece that makes it easier to justify this war?

One of the great things about a liberal democracy is that we can openly criticize the strategic choices our government has made. I sure hope that we can continue to do that without labeling those dissenters as supporting ruthless authoritarianism.

There’s nothing rational about his Ukraine invasion. Russian gains absolutely bubkis from this, and NATO has become stronger than ever. From what perspective was the invasion rational? Elites in Russia are in absolute disbelief. Putin lost all his cards the minute he actually invaded. So much for being a rational player.

It’s great to be skeptical of our government. It’s not so great to repeat kremlin talking points nearly verbatim.

Was the Bay of Pigs invasion rational?

Are invasions and overthrow of governments somehow okay when they install a pro-democratic and/or US-friendly leader? What if it fails and that leader turns out to be worse than the previous one?

Keep in mind that the US/NATO has been closely involved in many of these overthrows: Libya, Yemeni, Syria, Iraq, Uganda, Somalia, Pakistan, Yugoslavia, Panama, Grenada. Pretty much all of these involved lots of civilian death and collateral damage.

These aren't kremlin talking points, this is history. It's important to try to break out of the filter bubble and consider alternative viewpoints. At least consider the possibility that NATO is abusing its power and taking actions that are far beyond its original charter/purpose.

I am not following your logic. Are you saying that the USA has done bad things in the past, therefore Russia should be allowed to indiscriminately murder Ukrainians? In my lifetime, I have never seen the USA do anything as evil as what Russia is doing right now.

I'm just saying it's quite rational to be concerned when a foreign nuclear missile alliance sets up shop on your doorstep. Putin has had many interviews where he has stated this is his primary concern and that the west isn't listening.

The US almost started WW3 over exactly that same thing in the not so distance past during the cuban missile crisis.

We get mad when Russia interferes with US-elections with a few online bots but the US directly funded and participated in the overthrow of the pro-Russia Ukrainian government in 2014. There was violence involved, why is it okay when the US murders Ukrainians to install a sympathetic government but not when Russia does it? It's hypocritical.

If it were up to me, I'd disband NATO entirely (too much polarizing history) and replace it with a new organization with a very similar charter, but open membership to Russia and China. The purpose of this organization should be to prevent world wars, not to decide local elections, especially when those elections/conflicts involve non-member countries.

If it were up to me, I’d disband Russia entirely (too much polarizing history). I’d charter it as a constitutional democracy but remove its right to a standing army. The purpose of Russia should be to increase the happiness of its citizens and protect their welfare, not keep them under the iron boot of some mafioso tyrant so he can pursue his mad dreams.

You may be right, I don't like autocratic rulers for life either, and I think a majority in the US and NATO agree with that very sentiment.

However note how aggressive a stance that is. NATO is supposed to be a defensive organization but with the charter/purpose you suggest, it is rational for Putin and Xi to fear US/NATO aggression and do whatever it takes to fight its expansion. It is very much a threat to their survival, and the existence of their countries as they know it.

The problem is that Ukraine was not able to join NATO and is invaded anyway.

Ukraine joining NATO has been in the works for over a decade now and it is already closely involved with and cooperating with NATO including joint military drills. It's done everything short of being an official member:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ukraine%E2%80%93NATO_relations...

It couldn't join NATO until the war against Donetsk and the Dombass were over anyway. That mean recognition that this region seceded. Doesn't matter the formation/joint training, it wasn't legally possible for Ukraine to join.

Without full extermination of Ukrainians, I'm having a hard time believing Russia will be able to control it.

They may pound the poor Ukrainians for months to come to some sort of despair and depression if the war continues that long but I agree that they’ll never fully control the Ukrainians without full destruction. The built up resentiment is hard to dissipate especially now after the war started.

I hope either that the Russians withdraw without a very bruised ego so they leave poor Ukrainians alone to rebuild their country or that they simply collapse altogether and start afresh without Putin. Would like to live to see Putin condemned and perhaps imprisoned or executed by his own people, that would completely vindicate the Russian people in my eyes but I very much doubt that.

I think the problem is morale for russia. If they have it, they can annex ukraine like the USSR days. Chechnya fought very hard like ukraine.

The morale is such that Russia imprisons people who call this a war and any reporting other than rehashing official PR statements is banned, all independent media has been shut down. In official statements, there's only a limited "special operation" against "Neo-Nazi drug addicts" in Ukraine and it's going well, while on the ground everything's falling apart and in some sectors they've deployed rear troops that shoot their own soldiers if they attempt to retreat. Some POWs have even described how their units executed own wounded soldiers to avoid having to deal with treating them.

All in all, thousands of Russian service members have died, but Russian representatives refuse to collect bodies from Ukrainian authorities for proper burial. Relatives are kept in the dark. Many will receive a letter months from now saying that their father/husband/son died in undefined military exercise. Those relatives who speak up get a visit from security service intimidating them into shutting up.

It's a total nightmare. There'd be a violent revolution the next day if Russian TV showed truth for one evening: orthodox churches burning, entire towns razed to ground, kids getting limbs blown off from cluster munitions dropped onto residential areas, all kinds of unimaginable suffering.

The scale of this is such that there's no way to conceal truth for an extended period of time. It will lead to implosion of Russian society just like the Afghan war did in the 1980s.

The truth is readily available in Russia. But just like everywhere else, truth and lies are rejected or embraced regardless of how flimsy or strong they are. Human bias and other psychology can be astounding.

The scary thing is that there's no TV or radio channel to tune to or a newspaper to buy that would offer an alternative, truthful take. Even foreign press suspended activities in Russia after the March 4th law that made independent reporting punishable by up to 15 years in prison.

Determined people may seek out independent online sources if they can digest that everything they've been told is a lie, but that's an insignificant fraction of the whole population and their activism is mercilessly crushed by security services. The critical majority remains unaware of what the whole world has seen on front pages for the past several weeks and instead lives in a parallel reality where the widely reported bombing of Mariupol's hospital didn't happen, or if it did, they were all Nazis and crisis actors. It's Alex Jones and InfoWars adopted as state religion. Insane.

The U.S. has a nominally free press. There is a wide spectrum. But you will find a significant population that believes Jan 6 was fake. And you will find some who believe it was jovial tailgaters responding to a personal invitation from the President.

People often believe what they want to believe. Repression of the press is not helpful. But it isn't hard to find the truth in Russia. You can find whatever truth you want to find.

Yeah, most of this is untrue, you're read too much CNN

Remember Chechnya and Grozny are a fraction of the scale that is Ukraine and its major cities.

Putin may as well consolide his power further should anyone express thier disatisfaction with him. Im talking about the power hierarchy he’s sitting atop of, not just the Russian populace who already have some significant percentace of dissatisfaction - the real number is unknown since voting is heavily rigged and manipulated and the electorate is heavily manipulated by obvious propaganda.

He’s already consolidated it so much that those reporting to him seem to be mere yes-men.

“Take over Ukraine!”

“Yes!” But nothing (?) about 1. very hard, 2. unprepared military, 3. external risks.

There's absolutely no way Russia could occupy Ukraine for a prolonged period of time. Ukrainian morale and national unity are very high, and as was seen time and again ( Spain against Napoleon, Afghanistan against everyone, Yugoslav partisans against the Nazis) a determined population is impossible to control by a foreign occupier regardless of its strength.

There a way, unfortunately. Putin: 1. has no regard for human lives (including lives of Russian citizens) 2. is great admirer of Joseph Stalin.

His current plan likely: 1. destroy Ukrainian military and establish control over all major cities, roads and borders (russian losses to achieve this goal is no-brainier for him) 2. starve population (repeat Holodomor [1]) 3. sent millions to prison camps.

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Holodomor

Putin is already one of the richest and most powerful people in the world. If it was not enough for him, nothing will be.