We are gambling that making life more difficult for the average Russian will result in regime change. There is an alternative where sanctions increase popular support for further escalation with NATO and/or Ukraine, in order to result in Ukraine being under the Russian sphere of influence _and_ dropping of sanctions.
I'm scared of not having a Ukraine flag in my Twitter handle - despite being Polish and supporting Ukranians in the actual conflict - because I'm scared of the zealot Westerners who might try to pillory me for holding unsavory opinions that go against the current marketable beliefs.
I understand how the West is responding and it's not productive, nor is it a "let's wait and see" kind of strategy. This is the same weapon they've been using on everyone else for the past decade. Race, sex, belief, now nationality. It's about turning everything into a market that they control, and we know how people targeted by it react to it. They go cold, MAGA, embrace the antithetical - maybe they even start dropping nukes.
When the current round of Western propaganda fades away, who will Russians blame? Only the ones swallowing it on Twitter will blame Putin. So once that's gone this becomes a huge problem for us.
The plan is to have the propaganda never end. More people now live their lives through the lens of the internet (or internet-first mentality), who have swallowed enough of the insanity that it's no longer a set of sponsored opinions but "reality". It's clear now that the West completely dominates all propaganda on the internet - I barely see any of the Russian stuff. The Russians can't even get a word out, and I'm wondering who the censors are trying to protect. I highly doubt it's us.
What I'm seeing here is the new Western approach to politics in the 21st century. Reality manufacturing and blacklisting, supported by relentless propaganda. The market does the state's dirty work now, and it's constantly hungry for its master's approval, like a big dumb ogre.
The only way to stop the Russian aggression is to negotiate with their government. Not put Russians into camps, metaphorical or otherwise.
EDIT: If you think I'm wrong, then consider the possible influences. Does doing this push Russia to end the invasion, or does it push them to continue it? Does this help us align ourselves with reality and face it, or does it blind us? Is this likely to make the Russians more willing to become allies, or less willing? etc. etc.
Ain’t that the truth.
And get sent to prison? There is no negotiation in a country without free speech.
Why should we assume, after that show, that he'll be reasonable now?
The Russians have changed their demands since the conflict started, here they are currently: https://twitter.com/BlessedCloudz/status/1501095011584077826
That Russian negotiating position is not serious. No nation will recognize any concession inconsistent with Ukraine's sovereignty (all three demands are), nor should they. Russia has no leverage to achieve any of those goals, and the longer it goes on, the less they have.
It's quite scary. While I support the Ukraine, I'm shocked with how little media discussion there is about American hypocrisy on this topic. This certainly in no way excuses Putin's actions, but it's quite amazing how our elected officials can stand there straight-faced shaking their finger in disapproval at Putin after the number of countries we've invaded in my lifetime alone. Good God, I can't even imagine what we'd do if we got into a conflict with Mexico and the Russians we sending them weapons. Oh wait, that happened with Cuba in the 1960's and we threatened to wipe the Soviet Union off the map with nuclear weapons.
[1]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Budyonnovsk_hospital_hostage_c...
[2]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kizlyar%E2%80%93Pervomayskoye_...
[3]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moscow_theater_hostage_crisis
What next, you'll be judgemental about population of Berlin when it was taken from the Nazis?
The Vietnamese too.
They're setting us all up to mindlessly support their reckless "missions". And this shows they're not competent in creating or managing a stable system, and have devolved to the level of small tribes in terms of political thought.
Unfortunately, no. A LOT of Russian citizens are enthusiastically pro-war, and it's very hard to de-program them from state-run propaganda machine.
Least surprising thing ever.
The future dictionary definition of cutting off our nose to spite our face but banning Russian oil will make Twitter happy for the next 8-12 hours until the next move with zero thought given to the long term consequences.
China might be our only hope to avoid WW3. It was just a few days ago that banning Russian oil was not going to happen but Twitter gets what it wants in 2022. Twitter wants a no fly zone and WW3.
And nobody dares sanction the actual gas that is flowing through the war zone itself ...
Virtue sanctions? How do you expect those companies to operate in Russia with the rouble in freefall and SWIFT cut off?
I honestly don't know what the right path is here. Sometimes all the choices are bad.
In all likelihood, Putin probably will get away with this in the long-term. Most of us are happy to change our Twitter profiles to a Ukrainian flag, but how many of us would go and fight in Ukraine ourselves, how many of us would willingly send our kids over there to fight? Not most of us, I suspect.
I think the best possible outcome, which still isn't great, is that the Ukrainian people turn this into a quagmire and the Russians leave. The Russian public, much like the public in the West probably doesn't want to send their kids to die in another country that hasn't attacked them.
Do sanctions actually work? Maybe, but I'm not 100% convinced. North Korea is still sabre rattling and developing nuclear weapons despite years of sanctions. Cuba hasn't buckled despite over 50 years of U.S. sanctions. Iran hasn't had a regime change despite all the economic levers pulled against them over the years. The boycott Israel movement hasn't stopped the construction of settlements.
I don't think a quagmire in your own country is ever a good outcome. I honestly believe it would be preferable for most civilians if Russia quickly wins the war rather than dragging it out for a decade until Russia withdraws.
Of course, ideally Russia will agree to a peace relatively soon, take a few things they already had (Crimea, parts of Donbas) and some security promises, and lick their wounds after the sanctions...
I doubt the people of Crimea for example are suffering as much as if they had been through war - I'm not even sure they would welcome a Ukrainian operation to reconquer them (even though, to be clear, I don't believe Putin's referendum was anything other than a sham). I would also ask the 500,000 to 2 million killed afghans, and the 3 million wounded, if they are happy their deaths tore down the USSR, and would gladly go through that again.
Who cares about the long term though? All that matters is what we can tweet about this afternoon.
Also, he doesn't have sky high approval any longer. At the last elections, he could muster his percentage in the first tour with huge falsifications and disallowing any other credible candidate.
People aren't expecting Russians on the street to get rid of Putin. They're expecting that it will cause pressure on other Russian leaders to side with Russians and the West over Putin...
"Why are coups always led by colonels?" https://foreignpolicy.com/2010/02/22/why-are-coups-always-le...
True, but most people respond to most things emotionally, most of the time.
I was against the Iraq War back in 2003, but I would have been livid if the whole world punished ordinary Americans with sanctions, even though the majority of us voted against G.W. Bush in 2000. The fastest way to create unity among a group of people is to arbitrarily punish all of them together. This is, in part, why the military runs basic training the way it does.