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Re:Chip shortages due to lack of investment in right fabs by blibble on Monday January 31, 2022 @02:27AM (#30145447)
nice to see companies having behaviour as stupid, short-sighted and damaging as the people hoarding toilet paper
Re:Chip shortages due to lack of investment in right fabs by adhesive_wombat on Monday January 31, 2022 @04:17AM (#30146089)
Just like toilet paper, hoarding is just game theory in action. If you don't take part in the madness, you're at a disadvantage as the "sucker".

For toilet paper, the cost of that disadvantage is having to wash your backside with the shower head and the benefit is the warm fuzzies of doing the right thing. For a business with no chips, it could be an existential threat. Warm fuzzies don't pay salaries.

The only way to avoid it is to have every company in the world to agree to not hoard, and harshly punish "defectors" somehow. Or have the supplier strictly ration supply, which doesn't work if the supply is coming from existing stock in the hands of distributors unless they also cooperate (or collude, depending on how you look at it).

None of that is remotely possible in the global industrial system. JIT is often blamed, but to avoid it, trillions of dollars worth of material would need to be hoarded constantly, which is its own problem: storage costs money, logistics and space, and its a substantial risk if you end up not needing it or the goods expire or become obsolete on a shelf and overproduction is a waste of resources. Going bust because you hoarded 5 million components that you never actually needed and couldn't offload is still going bust.

Re:Chip shortages due to lack of investment in right fabs by rootsudo on Monday January 31, 2022 @09:30AM (#30148252)
For most of the world, bidets are a thing an it is a curious thing as to why the toliet paper industry is so powerful in the west.

I prefer the bidet, and seeing normal reams of toliet paper cost now $30 for the "mega" value pack, I'm amused at the production of something, the trucking of something, the retailing of something that is ultimately discarded . The whole thinking and execution of it is backwards.

---

It is remotely possible, the governments can set immediate import/export restrictions and also guide manufacturing as they did during Covid for incubators and such. While it won't be effective, it can either help the stock/supply rebound, or throw into more fear...

Re:Chip shortages due to lack of investment in right fabs by com2kid on Monday January 31, 2022 @01:58PM (#30152466)
> For most of the world, bidets are a thing an it is a curious thing as to why the toliet paper industry is so powerful in the west.

At least in America, my Grandmother's generation (great depression) grew up with outhouses. When homes were renovated to add an indoor bathroom, they were done on the cheap.

Heck pre-pandemic the idea of a bidet was crazy, I had to work hard to find one that was reliable and at a good price. Now they are super available and advertised all over the place, but when I went to get one installed 10 years ago it was not easy just finding a reliable, cold water, model! Warm water models were obscenely priced in the US.

It was likely a chicken/egg thing. Consumers didn't know about them, so no one made them for the US market, which meant the few that did exist cost an arm and a leg, so no one bothered to buy them so no one bothered to mass produce them.

On top of that, when I inquired about getting an outlet installed behind my toilet for an electric bidet, my plumber and electrician thought I was crazy!

Same question in 2021, "sure we do that all the time".

Re:Chip shortages due to lack of investment in right fabs by adhesive_wombat on Monday January 31, 2022 @04:25PM (#30154641)
Same here, they all come from the Far East, though they have at least started fitting the right plugs rather than a deathtrap adaptor.

Pretty sure mine didn't make them much money since they didn't include a pair of stainless steel mounting brackets, and they FedExed them to me. From Korea. In a box 100 times the necessary volume.

Re:Chip shortages due to lack of investment in right fabs by com2kid on Monday January 31, 2022 @08:09PM (#30157319)
Here in the US, Home Depot now sells an affordable heated bidet, under $200 IIRC. Doesn't have all the features of nicer models, but it gets the job done and it is available all over the place.

Bidets have gone mainstream in the US!

Re:Chip shortages due to lack of investment in right fabs by bluGill on Monday January 31, 2022 @05:22AM (#30146509)
What is really needed is expose the JIT pipeline to upstream. We are buying 10,000 parts but need 100 per week, figure out what works with your production pipeline to deliver at that rate or above.
Re:Chip shortages due to lack of investment in right fabs by rocqua on Monday January 31, 2022 @06:20AM (#30146840)
Issue is that people will skew the numbers reported upstream. This way they can affect what their 'fair share' would be. This tends to devolve into everyone mis-reporting numbers in the same direction, causing the reported numbers to be useless upstream.
Re:Chip shortages due to lack of investment in right fabs by CamperBob2 on Monday January 31, 2022 @05:55AM (#30146686)
The other way to avoid it is to have the government step in and impose rationing, as done in times of war... at least, back when war meant the common American citizen was actually expected to sacrifice for the greater effort.

If the semiconductor shortage continues to worsen, I think we'll start to see calls for this type of intervention. One step that could be taken immediately is to prohibit sales from the distribution channel to overseas brokers, which are currently resulting in stupidity like $800 FPGAs that used to cost $20. But it's also true that this sort of market manipulation has downsides of its own.

I honestly don't know what the right thing to do here is. But I do know the industry had best unfuck itself, and that right soon, or this situation is going to have major consequences in everyday life.

Re:Chip shortages due to lack of investment in right fabs by jsymolon on Monday January 31, 2022 @07:11AM (#30147103)
> ... is going to have major consequences in everyday life.

is going to ? Already has.

Used car prices start climbing Jul '20.

https://www.cargurus.com/Cars/price-trends/

Re:Chip shortages due to lack of investment in right fabs by KptMarchewa on Monday January 31, 2022 @07:29AM (#30147218)
Car prices going 5-10% up are very far from _major_ consequences.
Re:Chip shortages due to lack of investment in right fabs by Kirby64 on Monday January 31, 2022 @11:22AM (#30149746)
You reading the same page that the GP linked? It says YoY car prices are up 36%... which is enormous.

That's got a huge ripple effect across the market, as best as I can tell, because it pushes people to buy older/lower cost cars across the board. Either that or they continue driving their old/potentially unsafe car even longer.

Re:Chip shortages due to lack of investment in right fabs by KptMarchewa on Monday January 31, 2022 @11:37AM (#30149932)
Apologies. The index below does not correspond in any way to chart, which confused me.
Re:Chip shortages due to lack of investment in right fabs by doikor on Monday January 31, 2022 @10:58AM (#30149429)
The thing with toiler paper is that we never actually ran out of it. Only the last part of the chain did (the shops). Toilet paper just takes a lot of space and sells for relatively little so shops in general do not want to stock much of it.

Basically even during the worst of the panic it only ran out for the duration it takes for a truck to be driven to the manufacturers warehouse, load it, drive to the shop and unload it.

With semiconductors we are actually running out of stock/capacity at the very beginning of the chain instead of last mile delivery.

Re:Chip shortages due to lack of investment in right fabs by lnsru on Monday January 31, 2022 @02:42AM (#30145519)
While you could use newspaper as a substitute for toilet a paper some company has nothing as as a replacement. New part means costly re-certification of the whole product. No parts means one is out of business. So buying everything that is available on the market looks like very good decision from business perspective.
Re:Chip shortages due to lack of investment in right fabs by hvidgaard on Monday January 31, 2022 @03:59AM (#30145978)
If you're that dependent on components that there is no replacement for, then perhaps buy enough stock to last you through a redesign and recertification is in order. Having a contingency plan for such scenarios seems like a no brainer.
Re:Chip shortages due to lack of investment in right fabs by lnsru on Monday January 31, 2022 @04:15AM (#30146080)
There are sooo many no brainers, that bureaucratic monstrosities also known as Big Corps just can’t get right. I work for one and more than half of the daily problems are home made and were simple no brainers elsewhere.

I got all my electronic parts on time for my private development and first small manufacturing run. It is indeed no brainer.

Re:Chip shortages due to lack of investment in right fabs by hvidgaard on Monday January 31, 2022 @05:20AM (#30146500)
It's because they value short term gain over long term gain and stability. I see it all the time in software development too.
Re:Chip shortages due to lack of investment in right fabs by vkou on Monday January 31, 2022 @05:05AM (#30146400)
I'm pretty sure that whatever business you work for has no planned replacement for their local power company ceasing to provide electricity.

This doesn't mean they should go out and build their own gas peaker plant.

We live in a society, and no man is an island. You can't control everything you depend on. Sure, you can control some things you depend on, but that's a long, and expensive rabbit hole. Hoarding twenty years of canned food and seventy thousand rounds of ammuniton is all well and good, unless doing so puts you in a situation where you can't pay rent.

Re:Chip shortages due to lack of investment in right fabs by hvidgaard on Monday January 31, 2022 @05:17AM (#30146479)
Nice straw man. But I'll go with it for no other reason that I hope no one believes in that absurdity as an argument against planning for component supply issues. Issues that businesses have experienced time and time again since we began mass producing transistors.

That is because it's a utility that source power from several producers. The risk of no power what so ever for a prolonged time is not something to even be considered. Should that happen, society as we know it is probably at risk and my job is no longer important at all. Oh, and someone actually do plan for intermittent power delivery failure including having two different outside sources for power, a battery backup and diesel generators, data centers come to mind.

Re:Chip shortages due to lack of investment in right fabs by FeepingCreature on Monday January 31, 2022 @06:42AM (#30146973)
Don't big businesses often have Diesel generators to keep power to essential devices going through outages?
Re:Chip shortages due to lack of investment in right fabs by vkou on Monday January 31, 2022 @01:05PM (#30151520)
I don't mean a two-day power interruption, I mean a two-year power interruption.

And if they intend to feed the generator in perpetuity, I'll happily shift the goalposts to some other critical supplier not providing their services.

Re:Chip shortages due to lack of investment in right fabs by erik_seaberg on Monday January 31, 2022 @05:14AM (#30146462)
I don’t know that massive datacenters are truly a good investment for my employer, but at least we have several zones in two regions in case of power/network/natural disaster issues.
Re:Chip shortages due to lack of investment in right fabs by selimthegrim on Monday January 31, 2022 @08:06AM (#30147477)
You’d better tell the city of New Orleans that.
Re:Chip shortages due to lack of investment in right fabs by erik_seaberg on Monday January 31, 2022 @05:17AM (#30146477)
The best case would be somebody keeping a big stockpile and selling from it at a premium. “Anti-gouging” laws prevent that for toilet paper, so each of us has to hoard it instead.
Re:Chip shortages due to lack of investment in right fabs by more_corn on Monday January 31, 2022 @04:25PM (#30154637)
Hoarding is just client side caching. Once the initial shock wears off it’s actually a benefit and prevents future shocks. Keeping a stock of critical components on hand keeps business from needing to place emergency orders.
Re:Chip shortages due to lack of investment in right fabs by rvense on Monday January 31, 2022 @03:27AM (#30145772)
FTR I'm just a hobbyist, and I've been hoarding chips and boards too (though probably not in quantities that affect anything)