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Re:Wild bidding wars erupt at used-tractor auctions across t... by theptip on Sunday November 14, 2021 @01:16PM (#29219157)
> The shift over years has been that the second strategy produces more crops with lower expenses

I read an interesting book recently (Seeing like a State) that makes the claim that large-scale monocrop industrial farming is only actually “optimal” if you don’t price in the heavy subsidy, and if you ignore the non-revenue contributions of small-hold agriculture (e.g. the land might provide fuel, crafting materials, and otherwise support the farmers in a way that doesn’t show up on the balance sheet). Not to mention that the larger farms tend to be extractive, in that they are using up water from the water table and nutrients from the soil, and so they will eventually degrade the land to the point where it cannot be productive any more.

I did some digging and the farm subsidies in the US are truly eye-watering, and particularly notable is that the biggest 10% of farms take 90% of the subsidy, so we are not even subsidizing “traditional working farmers” or anything like that, just shipping hundreds of billions to huge ag corps.

I wouldn’t claim to be an expert nor to be certain about those economic claims though, and would be interested in others’ thoughts here, particularly other books you found useful on the subject.

Re:Wild bidding wars erupt at used-tractor auctions across t... by shalmanese on Sunday November 14, 2021 @03:55PM (#29220603)
> I did some digging and the farm subsidies in the US are truly eye-watering, and particularly notable is that the biggest 10% of farms take 90% of the subsidy

Well, yeah. The 90th percentile farm makes $7665 in farm income per year [1] so how much subsidies could they possibly absorb?

"Farms" in the US are overwhelmingly used as a tax avoidance strategy. Only a numerical minority of farms are actually designed to grow food.

[1] https://aei.ag/2019/02/25/what-is-median-farm-income/

Re:Wild bidding wars erupt at used-tractor auctions across t... by WaxProlix on Sunday November 14, 2021 @06:05PM (#29221628)
> "Farms" in the US are overwhelmingly used as a tax avoidance strategy

Can you say more about this / link to some more info? It's an interesting premise and I haven't heard it before.

Re:Wild bidding wars erupt at used-tractor auctions across t... by hattmall on Sunday November 14, 2021 @07:55PM (#29222328)
Most rural land is used in some sort of agricultural production. The most is probably timber. For most of those land for most years they don't make much profit if any, but loads of expenses can be deducted against that farm income and 4 out of 5 years, those expenses can go against any other income and the allowed expenses are very liberal.
Re:Wild bidding wars erupt at used-tractor auctions across t... by bombcar on Sunday November 14, 2021 @06:17PM (#29221707)
I suppose many hobby farms get the land classification of agricultural instead of recreational or homestead and are taxed lower.
Re:Wild bidding wars erupt at used-tractor auctions across t... by kevin_thibedeau on Sunday November 14, 2021 @08:22PM (#29222518)
Christmas tree farms are the best. You're growing a non-necessary crop that you can ignore harvesting for decades.
Re:Wild bidding wars erupt at used-tractor auctions across t... by merpnderp on Monday November 15, 2021 @07:59AM (#29226800)
What about pecan farms? A new farm takes 20+ years to start producing and a lot of people would rather have Christmas trees than pecans.
Re:Wild bidding wars erupt at used-tractor auctions across t... by shalmanese on Monday November 15, 2021 @12:48AM (#29224177)
Re:Wild bidding wars erupt at used-tractor auctions across t... by imglorp on Monday November 15, 2021 @12:10AM (#29223949)
I have heard of someone who has a regular job, but raises one or two head of livestock a year and sells them for slaughter. This way they get the ag tax benefits for income and their land.
Re:Wild bidding wars erupt at used-tractor auctions across t... by devilbunny on Tuesday November 16, 2021 @11:21AM (#29242346)
There's a large plot of land along a highway outside Fort Worth that is definitely prime development land. The owner keeps a few cattle on the land, qualifying it for agricultural property taxes instead of the much-higher residential rates. Until the land is bid up high enough to make it worthwhile to sell, the ranching operation is enough to keep it inexpensive to hold onto and provide some deductions.
Re:Wild bidding wars erupt at used-tractor auctions across t... by jcfrei on Sunday November 14, 2021 @07:40PM (#29222214)
> Only a numerical minority of farms are actually designed to grow food.

"Numerically", ok. But by landmass the majority is used to grow food, right?

Re:Wild bidding wars erupt at used-tractor auctions across t... by merpnderp on Monday November 15, 2021 @08:06AM (#29226868)
Open up Google Maps and switch to satellite mode and then look around the midwest. There are many states that appear to be 90% farmland, but nearly all states have a large percentile of farmland.

https://www.fas.usda.gov/data/2020-us-agricultural-exports

Re:Wild bidding wars erupt at used-tractor auctions across t... by jml7c5 on Sunday November 14, 2021 @02:18PM (#29219741)
>particularly notable is that the biggest 10% of farms take 90% of the subsidy

How much crop production do the biggest 10% of farms represent?

Re:Wild bidding wars erupt at used-tractor auctions across t... by theptip on Sunday November 14, 2021 @03:28PM (#29220348)
It's a good question, and I don't have the answer. Here's a reasonable jumping-off point that I've started investigating: https://www.cato.org/commentary/examining-americas-farm-subs...

And here's a more detailed NBER paper digging into distribution of subsidies: https://www.nber.org/papers/w16693

My general impression so far is that the subsidies are not being disbursed pro-rata to production rates, and larger farms (having more legal resources) are much more able to capture these subsidies; for example with exotic ownership structures of lots of subsidiaries, to maximize the capture of subsidies. These financial/legal engineering strategies simply aren't available to smallholders. It's the same sort of incentive structure that produces outcomes like the biggest companies paying the lowest tax rates.

Also, correction, I believe I have mis-quoted the stats off the top of my head -- the Cato article suggests it's more like 80% of subsidies to the top 10%. The general point still stands.

Re:Wild bidding wars erupt at used-tractor auctions across t... by SilasX on Sunday November 14, 2021 @05:44PM (#29221465)
>It's a good question, and I don't have the answer.

It's really the kind of thing you want to resolve before spreading a statistic like that.

Re:Wild bidding wars erupt at used-tractor auctions across t... by theptip on Sunday November 14, 2021 @06:08PM (#29221644)
I couldn’t disagree more. I was clear about my level of epistemic uncertainty in my OP. And there is a good discussion going on here.
Re:Wild bidding wars erupt at used-tractor auctions across t... by SilasX on Sunday November 14, 2021 @10:13PM (#29223239)
Not about that part of it, no, and that information is critical context for interpreting that figure.

So yes, you maybe said insightful things other than that comment, but you didn’t open up about critical content there.

Re:Wild bidding wars erupt at used-tractor auctions across t... by shawn-butler on Sunday November 14, 2021 @08:54PM (#29222747)
Large-scale family farms and industrial nonfamily farms account for only 4.8% of farms, but 57.4% of production (in $). Small-scale family farms represent nearly 90% of U.S. farms, but only 21.5% of production.

Source is USDA (2020) America’s Diverse Family Farms.

Re:Wild bidding wars erupt at used-tractor auctions across t... by dools on Sunday November 14, 2021 @10:24PM (#29223302)
It’s almost like there’s an entire branch of government dominated by a minority of land holders
Re:Wild bidding wars erupt at used-tractor auctions across t... by fshbbdssbbgdd on Sunday November 14, 2021 @08:51PM (#29222726)
If farms got charged for their water use (a high enough price to reduce usage and prevent drought), I wonder if the small farms would still do a better job on that front, or would the more industrial farms do their optimizing thing and become more efficient? I suppose you could also price the impact on soil quality, but that sounds harder to administer.
Re:Wild bidding wars erupt at used-tractor auctions across t... by toyg on Sunday November 14, 2021 @01:22PM (#29219205)
> particularly notable is that the biggest 10% of farms take 90% of the subsidy

This is the real problem.

I wish somebody would come up with a simple mechanism to stop all subsidies to companies over a certain size. Yes, it will be gamed, but it's still better than the outright crony-capitalism we have today.

Re:Wild bidding wars erupt at used-tractor auctions across t... by tastyfreeze on Sunday November 14, 2021 @01:38PM (#29219351)
Just stop subsidies altogether. Subsidies distort the market and encourage farmers to grow crops the market doesnt actually want.
Re:Wild bidding wars erupt at used-tractor auctions across t... by AngryData on Monday November 15, 2021 @12:40AM (#29224122)
Subsidies are an alternative to having massive granary stores to supply an entire nation. If you don't guarantee overproduction, you will soon find yourself having shortages as crop yields can vary up to 30% each year. Without subsidies farms will optimize towards producing only barely enough to satisfy demand so they don't waste money on crops they can't sell, profit margins are usually 1% or less so there is very little room for overproduction. Once everyone is trying to thread that thin line, a single bad month of weather or a large wind or hail storm would turn you from a food exporting nation to a food importing nation overnight, and crop prices will swing wildly in either direction from it.

Subsidies certainly are poorly applied and could use some serious work fixing them, but just getting rid of them outright is foolish.

Re:Wild bidding wars erupt at used-tractor auctions across t... by willvarfar on Sunday November 14, 2021 @01:49PM (#29219476)
Subsidies can be about ensuring crops are produced in-country instead of imported from cheaper countries. This is not the same as saying there is no market for the produce.
Re:Wild bidding wars erupt at used-tractor auctions across t... by Breza on Sunday November 14, 2021 @10:52PM (#29223482)
And as much as I'll criticize the way we run farm subsidy programs, I have to say I'm glad that my food isn't stuck on a ship off the coast of California right now.
Re:Wild bidding wars erupt at used-tractor auctions across t... by treeman79 on Sunday November 14, 2021 @02:35PM (#29219892)
Tariffs are an option
Re:Wild bidding wars erupt at used-tractor auctions across t... by cgio on Sunday November 14, 2021 @04:08PM (#29220724)
If the demand is unelastic, stopping subsidies or introducing tariffs will increase prices ending up with the consumer and most probably hitting the poorest people worse. From that perspective, billions shopped to mega corps could be an ironically capitalist way to socialist means. Better ways perhaps to achieve the same but don’t know if they would align with a capitalist worldview, e.g. socialise the production, or cap profitability etc.
Re:Wild bidding wars erupt at used-tractor auctions across t... by BoorishBears on Sunday November 14, 2021 @05:44PM (#29221471)
We already provide food assistance to our poorest, we could always redirect those subsidies directly to poor families
Re:Wild bidding wars erupt at used-tractor auctions across t... by susiecambria on Sunday November 14, 2021 @08:07PM (#29222412)
You are right that we do provide food assistance but benefits are not always enough to last a month: ". . . most SNAP beneficiaries run out of food after the second or third week of the month; some of them cope by turning to local food pantries like the ones Community FoodBank of New Jersey runs." [1]

In addition, the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities has written, "many low-income households that receive benefits still have trouble affording an adequate diet. An Institute of Medicine report identified several shortcomings with the current SNAP benefit allotment and noted that most household benefit levels are based on unrealistic assumptions about the cost of food, preparation time, and access to grocery stores. Many families face stark choices between purchasing food and paying for rent and other necessities. If they manage this shortfall by buying lower-cost but less nutritious foods, it can adversely affect their health." [2]

Directing farm subsidies or any other money to current and future SNAP beneficiaries would benefit millions, including working Americans: "The number of SNAP households that have earnings while participating in SNAP has more than tripled — from about 2 million in 2000 to 6.5 million in 2017. The share of all SNAP households that have earnings while participating in SNAP has also increased — from about 27 percent in 2000 to about 31 percent in 2017." [3]

Regardless of dealing with the very problematic farm subsidies, the president and congress must do something about food insecurity.

[1] https://www.salon.com/2014/01/19/what_i_learned_from_a_week_...

[2] [3] https://www.cbpp.org/research/food-assistance/the-supplement...

Re:Wild bidding wars erupt at used-tractor auctions across t... by Talanes on Sunday November 14, 2021 @10:58PM (#29223516)
Unless that also includes raising the maximum income threshold for SNAP recipients, that would just move the burden from the absolute poorest to the marginally poor.
Re:Wild bidding wars erupt at used-tractor auctions across t... by BoorishBears on Monday November 15, 2021 @12:38AM (#29224109)
Ok so raise the maximum income threshold significantly while we're at it?

It's not like both of those things are not equally likely to happen (which is to say not likely)

Re:Wild bidding wars erupt at used-tractor auctions across t... by Talanes on Wednesday November 17, 2021 @11:38PM (#29262027)
But two unlikely things both happening is less likely than either one alone.
Re:Wild bidding wars erupt at used-tractor auctions across t... by treeman79 on Sunday November 14, 2021 @07:46PM (#29222268)
Socializing or capping profit will guarantee shortages.
Re:Wild bidding wars erupt at used-tractor auctions across t... by simonh on Sunday November 14, 2021 @02:30PM (#29219849)
Who cares where it’s produced? If farmers in a developing country can get off aid and earn a living, good for them. I do care how it’s produced.
Re:Wild bidding wars erupt at used-tractor auctions across t... by PeterisP on Sunday November 14, 2021 @03:55PM (#29220606)
There are two main aspects.

One is long-term food security - even if global trade is mostly fine right now despite the current hiccups, there's no telling how it's going to be in a decade or two, and it's hard to ramp up production (due to lack of skillset, machinery and infrastructure) if you suddenly need it; so it makes all sense to pay some fraction of a percent of your GDP to ensure long-term strategic security of your food supply, especially if it looks like global tensions will eventually rise due to climate change.

The second aspect is that even in the current circumstances we're seeing rapid urbanization and depopulation of the countryside, which is generally seen as a problem for many areas. In a "natural" regime without rural subsidies this would happen even faster.

Re:Wild bidding wars erupt at used-tractor auctions across t... by azinman2 on Sunday November 14, 2021 @02:40PM (#29219930)
So many reasons why this is bad, but the most obvious reason right now is the supply chain crisis. It’s one thing if you can’t get a new car. It’s another if you can’t get new food.
Re:Wild bidding wars erupt at used-tractor auctions across t... by AussieWog93 on Sunday November 14, 2021 @05:44PM (#29221467)
Relying on imports for food makes your country a sitting duck in times of war. All the enemy needs to do is blockade you and then you can be starved into submission.
Re:Wild bidding wars erupt at used-tractor auctions across t... by ineedasername on Sunday November 14, 2021 @08:55PM (#29222750)
Given the global logistics mess at the moment, I would think it's pretty obvious why the location of food production matters.
Re:Wild bidding wars erupt at used-tractor auctions across t... by hoseja on Monday November 15, 2021 @08:40AM (#29227212)
States know very well that any given civilization is about nine meals away from anarchy.
Re:Wild bidding wars erupt at used-tractor auctions across t... by etempleton on Sunday November 14, 2021 @01:51PM (#29219488)
The problem is that the whole farming industry is proped up on subsidies and if you ended it tomorrow almost every small to medium farm would fold and get bought by a large farm or sold to build a housing development.
Re:Wild bidding wars erupt at used-tractor auctions across t... by AnthonyMouse on Sunday November 14, 2021 @02:00PM (#29219562)
That isn't consistent with 10% of the farms taking 90% of the subsidy.

The subsidy argument is a scam anyway. It's a commodity market. The margins will be razor thin, the end. If you subsidize production, prices go down. It will eat the whole subsidy and leave the margins razor thin.

The only way the subsidy helps you is if you get more of it than your competitors. Now who do you think that applies to, the family farm or the huge corporation with lots of lobbyists?

Re:Wild bidding wars erupt at used-tractor auctions across t... by ars on Sunday November 14, 2021 @02:30PM (#29219850)
If 10% of them grow 90% of the food then it's completely consistent.

Your misunderstanding is that a subsidy is not aimed at one US farm versus another, it's US farms versus foreign farms.

The reason should be pretty obvious, without the subsidies they would be no US farms. And then in time of war there would be trouble.

There are a huge number of US industries that exist only to make sure that US capacity will remain even in time of war.

The same goal could be accomplished with tariffs, but then the price of food would be higher.

Re:Wild bidding wars erupt at used-tractor auctions across t... by AnthonyMouse on Sunday November 14, 2021 @03:12PM (#29220221)
> If 10% of them grow 90% of the food then it's completely consistent.

The claim implied that the small farms get more of the subsidy, i.e. that they would be the ones wiped out without it.

> The reason should be pretty obvious, without the subsidies they would be no US farms.

Why would there be no US farms? Real estate in San Francisco is much more expensive than it is in Mexico City or the like, but farmland in Oklahoma is not uncompetitive with farmland outside of the US.

If this was the real reason then the subsidies wouldn't be suspiciously concentrated at the location of Iowa caucuses.

Re:Wild bidding wars erupt at used-tractor auctions across t... by Talanes on Sunday November 14, 2021 @11:05PM (#29223553)
>If this was the real reason then the subsidies wouldn't be suspiciously concentrated at the location of Iowa caucuses.

Politicians are crafty buggers who will repurpose anything they can to provide themselves with an edge, so that doesn't necessarily say anything about the theory behind the subsidies.

Re:Wild bidding wars erupt at used-tractor auctions across t... by klyrs on Sunday November 14, 2021 @02:16PM (#29219719)
Lower food prices are good for the consumer. Exclusively focusing on the supply side is a mistake.
Re:Wild bidding wars erupt at used-tractor auctions across t... by AnthonyMouse on Sunday November 14, 2021 @02:26PM (#29219830)
The consumer is the one paying the taxes that fund the subsidies. That isn't helping them.
Re:Wild bidding wars erupt at used-tractor auctions across t... by theptip on Sunday November 14, 2021 @03:35PM (#29220407)
I get the general point you're making, but in a progressive tax regime like the US, the poor (who benefit most from lower food prices) are paying proportionately less of their income as tax than the rich, so this is helping them. Many US families paid no tax in 2020 due to tax credits, so they won't pay for the subsidies.

I would definitely argue that there are simpler ways of helping low-income families to afford food though, if that is your goal... just lower their taxes further, or give them negative tax / UBI if they are already paying no taxes, rather than adding lots of complex gears to distort the economy to try and affect the same outcome. Or more food stamps if you don't like the idea of poor people spending their tax rebate dollars on non-food items that they prefer.

Re:Wild bidding wars erupt at used-tractor auctions across t... by listenallyall on Sunday November 14, 2021 @07:59PM (#29222366)
Income tax may be progressive (before deductions, of course). But payroll taxes definitely are not, and if you earn under 50, 60k or so, your payroll tax burden is going to be higher than income tax. Sales tax and gasoline taxes aren't progressive either.
Re:Wild bidding wars erupt at used-tractor auctions across t... by AnthonyMouse on Sunday November 14, 2021 @03:49PM (#29220516)
> I get the general point you're making, but in a progressive tax regime like the US, the poor (who benefit most from lower food prices) are paying proportionately less of their income as tax than the rich, so this is helping them.

That's assuming that you would lower taxes uniformly instead of e.g. lowering them for the lowest tax bracket, which is in no way required.

Re:Wild bidding wars erupt at used-tractor auctions across t... by landemva on Monday November 15, 2021 @10:51AM (#29228777)
Start with removing corn subsidy. There is so much corn ovrrproduction that it gets processed into a bit of sweet and blended in to packaged foods like ketchup. And blended into gasoline. Corn subsidy is massive economic distortion which leads to monocrop farming and lack of diversity.
Re:Wild bidding wars erupt at used-tractor auctions across t... by vkou on Monday November 15, 2021 @02:19AM (#29224707)
Given the choice between a free market plus bread riots every time there's a bad growing year, versus subsidies and no bread riots, I'm going to have to swing towards subsidies.

As I understand it, during a bread riot, free marketeers get eaten first.

Re:Wild bidding wars erupt at used-tractor auctions across t... by JoeAltmaier on Sunday November 14, 2021 @08:29PM (#29222576)
I'm not sure our economy could handle that. Industry depends on the products coming from those farms. It's always more nuanced than "stop that crazy thing we're doing!"