jcfrei

I kind of expected this to happen: Coding will become an "artisanal craft" - much like woodworking for example. Sure for most of your furniture you can just go to ikea but every now and then you might get joy from making something with your own hands.

Of course the big spenders on Google with the multi-million dollars advertising budgets won't just change their spending behaviour over night. That takes time - like anything in big corporations.

I don't think US investors are the target here. They can already make bets on the SP500 in a number of ways: ETFs, futures, options etc. - unless you wanna make a highly leveraged bet which traditional broker margin requirements will prevent. The tradfi venues are probably even a bit cheaper (though we are talking about a few bps difference).

I've looked at the xyz:SP500 contract on hyperliquid and it's funding rate seems to be negative most of the time. Currently the annualized rate is around -0 to -2%, so if you hold a long position over a year you will roughly earn 1% on top (negative funding rate means short positions pay funding to long positions). This makes sense because the no-arbitrage principle requires this to be roughly in line with holding an actual SP500 basket and receiving dividends. And you don't pay interest on open positions, you are just holding a derivative and need to meet margin obligations - but you can leverage as much as you are comfortable with.

this won't really matter much because even if tokenization of stocks is banned you can just create perpetual futures that settle on the price of the real stock. so if you are a crypto only investor (due to your country preventing open capital markets or other restrictions) you will put your money there and then some intermediaries with access to both tradfi markets with actual stock and access to the crypto perpetual futures markets will provide the liquidity and keep prices in sync.

Meta AI has been accessible inside Whatsapp for a long time. Doesn't seem to have a massively disrupted chatgpt usage. And I have a hunch people want to keep this separated - not use whatsapp for messaging friends and asking AI.

OpenAI has the largest user base on mobile as far as I'm aware. To a lot of standard users AI is still just ChatGPT. They'll be fine as long as they can effectively monetize their free users (same what facebook will soon try with Muse). The only advantage facebook has is that they already have a fully working ad marketplace ready with all major advertisers set up - OpenAI still needs to scale that up.

to use a GBU-28 or similar you need to establish air superiority first

believe it or not but legislation can change pretty quickly when shit actually hits the fan

Not trying to be dismissive here but a lawyer will always edit your proposal. I do think lawyers will persist but not as many. And they will work very differently, much like we already use claude / codex to code - a big part of the contract probably won't be read by the lawyer.

FYI: I'm European and worried about our competitiveness. It appears you didn't get my point. You can have different values like you said but then you have to be consistent with this on all levels to make it work. And that means less EU integration into the global economy - the EU doesn't have a clear vision where it wants to go.

That's easier said than done when you are competing in a global economy. The US is actually getting more consistent here: It starts to become more isolationist (through the trade war and specifically tariffs) and as a result will have more leeway in choosing their own mix of workers rights, compensations, taxation, etc. Sidenote: Of course consumers will be worse off as a result.

The EU however is in this weird spot where they are pushing for a more integrated global economy (thanks to all kinds of trade deals) with fewer barriers while at the same time making their own companies less competitive with all these regulations and internal hurdles: There are examples where a German exporter had an easier time sending his stuff to New Zealand than France.

It's an improvement for the economy and that mainly benefits the shareholders. How you redistribute those gains more broadly is an open question. But keeping inefficiencies in place to protect workers is a losing strategy in the long term - see: Soviet Union.

No it does not. There's a lot of gold plating happening at the national level that goes beyond EU regulations. It's EU regulations + 27 national regulations in reality. The EU economies are still too different and the population too unwilling to have a truly US-style single market.

> In experiments spanning robotics, control of physical processes, and computer vision, the new method consistently satisfied the required constraints while identifying better solutions than existing techniques.

I guess this method works when you can precisely quantify the allowed output - like the degrees an arm can move or the path a robot can take, etc. But it doesn't appear to be applicable to an AI writing code - which is where our main concerns currently are.

Just like kids eventually take over most of the daily tasks for their parents (for people in countries where you don't have any kind of retirement fund and assisted living, etc.). Same will happen here - on one hand because the human population keeps growing older without any replacement and on the other because all the new tech will be too complicated for humans to understand.

This is going to be an extremely interesting space to watch. Will online shops open their perfectly sculpted and sales-optimized webpages to accept requests from chat bots? such that they can just do highly targeted requests for shoppers? Or will they implement custom chat bots that guide and nudge you along your purchasing journey on the page itself? I'm very curious how consumer behavior will evolve from here. is every online search still going to start with a google query? or maybe soon a query on claude and chatgpt? or maybe three separate queries to the chat bots of the respective stores?

AI can be progressing rapidly and valuations of OpenAI and Anthropic can decline at the same time. In fact I would say that's actually the default scenario. If AI really advances rapidly then it will be quickly moot which company developped which model at what time - since AI will be largely progressing on its own.

These blog posts often allude that the EU regulatory bodies are just slightly incompetent or short-sighted and these fragmented national models happen by accident. But unfortunately that's not the case: The EU pretends to be a single-market and almost mantra-like the EU officials keep repeating it. But the fact of the matter is that there is neither a single market nor is the European public ready for one. If there was a true single market (like the US has one) - then this would very quickly lead to massive changes in the labour market. Imagine all the Romanian construction companies suddenly building office buildings in Madrid. Or countless Polish architects suddenly undercutting the much more expensive architects in Milano. Whether they know it or not, Europeans would like to have all the benefits of a single market (mostly more competitive pricing) without any of the downsides (massive labour shifts) - but that option doesn't exist. So what they do is harmonize regulation for a few big corporations, while all the smaller companies (and their employees) still get to keep their national moats.

I've recently started using codex for most of my coding. Haven't looked back so far: It seems to reason deeper about the code it writes and has much less downtime.

this looks just like x402 by Coinbase which enables stablecoin payments. but instead of transacting in dollars it tries to revive the idea that btc can be used as an actual means for payment rather than just speculation.

Is anybody else experiencing this: I have multiple claude instances running on different servers - and some keep getting the 529 Overloaded error and one instance doesn't and just continues working. All are using Opus 5.

search isnt that super hard to solve. the problem is that incentives are misaligned - which means companies who sell something have an incentive to share their index with the corporation that pays to be the default search provider. for a simple search engine that just delivers facts there's very little incentive to keep its index up-to-date: because that company wont get the apis to retrieve the content efficiently, so it needs more compute, bandwidth and storage to run.