This is what happened with "Marek's disease", a virus-caused disease in chickens. The vaccine was "leaky" and ended up selecting for a more deadly form, such that now all chickens worldwide have to be vaccinated for it or they'll die if they get infected - which didn't used to be the case.
https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/covid-variants-ma...
2) We can see with SARS and MERS that a more deadly form may actually reduce overall mortality, since the virus can't spread as effectively. However, we haven't had this effect so far.
Isn't it more significant not where they emerge (which is by random mutation) but where they do well? And don't they seem to do well in countries that have vaccinated more people?
Is it even particularly easy to say where a variant originated? Could the mutations happen multiple times independently?
Random mutation happens more when we give it more chances, by letting it infect more unprotected people. We'd rather avoid that, so it's also important.
>Is it even particularly easy to say where a variant originated?
No, but we have gene sampling to help.
>Could the mutations happen multiple times independently?
They can and sometimes do happen independently.
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/07/20/world/asia/india-covid-pa...
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/05/25/world/asia/in...
> Analysis of samples from the patient showed that the virus evolved rapidly after the plasma therapy, developing mutations that changed how it could infect cells and resist antibodies.
Seems to be that the plasma therapy (injecting antibodies) is responsible here.
https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2021/02/05/9644470...
As GP pointed out, when the unvaccinated are at risk and vaccinated ones are carriers, the dynamics don't remain the same as in the case of Ebola / Nipah / MERS / J. Encephalitis, because the infection retains its virulence while evolutionary pressure selects for a fatal variant, a deadly combination.
Marek's disease in chicken is what the PLOS article is about: MDV = Marek's disease virus.
> The vaccine was "leaky" and ended up selecting for a more deadly form
The researchers of the PLOS article do not claim to know that for certain:
"Our data do not demonstrate that vaccination was responsible for the evolution of hyperpathogenic strains of MDV, and we may never know for sure why they evolved in the first place."
But this they claim:
"But whatever was responsible for the evolution of more virulent strains in the first place (and there may be many causes), our data show that vaccination is sufficient to maintain hyperpathogenic strains in poultry flocks today."
https://journals.plos.org/plosbiology/article?id=10.1371/jou...
1) the most contagious variants have emerged from countries with little to no vaccination: UK before vaccination and with very little protective measures (pubs, etc.), Brazil with Bolsonaro, India with a very high population density who are mostly unvaccinated, etc. These variants appear thanks to the high number of contaminations. Vaccination means fewer contaminations, and thus the less likely arising of mutations and a new variant.
2) Current vaccines are very effective against the current variants. This observation is inconsistent with the assumption that one of the variants could have been naturally selected to resist to vaccination. This is also expected as the percentage of vaccinated people is low in most parts of the world, thus there is little pressure to select a vaccine-resistant variant for now.
If we had made the variants "worse" because of imperfect vaccination, we would have seen a vaccine-resistant variant emerge from one of the vaccinated (>50%) countries.
I agree that the idea that vaccines are leading to new variants seems extremely dubious though. Like everything else in epidemiology, when you go looking for the underlying rational basis for it, there's just nothing robust there.
If the vaccinated aren't spreading it then you're suggesting that the unvaccinated have become drastically more infectious for no apparent reason and in ways that don't show up in contract tracing data. I think the alternative explanations are more likely to be correct: the vaccine is actually not a vaccine in the traditional sense, it's more like a prophylactic. Vaccinated people aren't getting an immune response in the normal areas where it would usually enter and exit, like the nose and lungs, instead it's being injected into the arm.
Also, COVID tests don't actually detect COVID or even SARS-CoV-2, they detect RNA debris from destroyed SARS-CoV-2. Thus it's expected that if someone's body fights off the virus immediately if they're exposed to it, they will still test positive.
> Also, COVID tests don't actually detect COVID or even SARS-CoV-2, they detect RNA debris from destroyed SARS-CoV-2. Thus it's expected that if someone's body fights off the virus immediately if they're exposed to it, they will still test positive.
Slightly untrue. The particles gathered from infected and spreading persons are fully functional, by definition. To distinguish these cares from immune people, one would have to determine the percentage of viable virus particles. Hard to tell whether that's even feasible at scale. It's not too bad though. At worst this causes a higher than expected false-positive rate.
"one would have to determine the percentage of viable virus particles. Hard to tell whether that's even feasible at scale ... It's not too bad though. At worst this causes a higher than expected false-positive rate."
I'm not sure you're aware of the scale of the problem. There have been studies that correlated PCR test results with ability to do viral culturing and concluded about 60% of all positive test results did not imply infectiousness. For example, this one:
My point was that the viral culturing might not be feasible for large-scale testing. In that case, we might have to stick to PCR.
The correct response to the PCR not detecting what people actually need to know is to shut down mass testing entirely. There is no point in mass testing if it creates chaos and doesn't help, which is what's happening (there is no correlation between testing levels and incidence levels, killing the theory that test test test = better results).
Isn't that the point of concern about the variants? Alpha is vastly more infectious than the original and delta is even more infectious than Alpha, which is the reason why they're able to become the dominant strain in unvaccinated populations (england in early 2021 & india with delta). Both have some immune escape but less than e.g. the gamma variant which hasn't become dominant in most countries with high vaccination rates.
(now, since the covid vaccines don't mean complete sterile immunity, just like all others, increased infectiousness also leads to problems)
The PCR tests do detect the virus if the body fought of the virus immediately, but can also measure the amount remaining (the cycle count) which has a cutoff point. Thus it often doesn't get counted as "infectious".
The antigen tests (the fast, cheap ones) don't trigger on small amounts, also leading to issues and that results in them being more-or-less useless to detect infected vaccinated people.
Re: PCR:
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8166461/
In light of our findings that more than half of individuals with positive PCR test results are unlikely to have been infectious, RT-PCR test positivity should not be taken as an accurate measure of infectious SARS-CoV-2 incidence. Our results confirm the findings of others that the routine use of “positive” RT-PCR test results as the gold standard for assessing and controlling infectiousness fails to reflect the fact “that 50-75% of the time an individual is PCR positive, they are likely to be post-infectious”
There is hope, we might not get rid off it but if we could control chickenpox that is quite more infectious, we can have a little hope. Even more with more modern medicine.
Well. So it was in our tentative models at the time of this author's writing (8 days). So it is not any more, as of a few days only (3 days).
...Ray Kurzweil was right. /Bitter Joke.
"selfish" implies you think there is some benefit to those individuals in declining it. What do you think that is?
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/vaccines/safety/ad...
Your risk index is poor.
Like conversely, your chance of getting hit by a car is 1 in 5000, so I guess you shouldn't ever leave your house again.
https://www.reference.com/world-view/odds-getting-hit-car-81....
It infuriates me that "armchair experts" who likely lack even a bachelors degree in STEM much less epidemiology think that they know better than the majority of medical professionals.
They are more likely to follow their advice of the mechanic who tells them that their catalytic converter needs to be replaced than a medical professional who has nearly a decade of specialized training.
Even if you have unshakeable faith in this evidence-free perversion of biological theory, nobody was claiming the vaccines will fail without 100% adoption last year when they launched. Their reception would have been rather different if that had been claimed, wouldn't it? So you can either believe this is true, in which case governments and pharma firms deceived people about the nature of the 'vaccine', or you can believe it's false and they didn't. But you can't believe it's true and it's the other people who are deceivers. That makes no logical sense.
Global eradication of diseases has been achieved with smallpox and bovine rinderpest precisely because they had no natural reservoir and all vulnerable populations could be vaccinated. With Coronaviruses the situation is not so simple, but it should at least be possible to eradicate the currently relevant variant.
> [...] vaccines reduce the chance of severe (symptomatic) illness but do not necessarily prevent infection and transmission.
My understanding is that at least the RNA vaccines are sterilizing when titers peak, i.e. in the first weeks (months?) after full vaccination. This is due to the presence of a certain type of antibody in the mucosa of the respiratory tract. We also know that levels decrease over 6-12 months, at which point you can get infected, but illness will be mild due to T cell activity. (assuming the immune system of a young, healthy person).
> My understanding is that this is a relatively new and perhaps highly understudied phenomenon.
I don't have the impression it's understudied. With the widespread prevalence of genetic sequencing we have a pretty good understanding of the mutation activity. Once a variant has an evolutional advantage it is studied quite closely whether it is a fitness escape, an immune escape or both. E.g. Delta is mostly a fitness escape but fortunately only a slight immune escape.
> or just trade relevant links with others who are diving into primary sources as a way to form an educated and well rounded opinion.
The best resource I can give you is a German podcast with two of Germany's leading virologists [1]. Personally listening to experts in their field in a long form interview has been orders of magnitude more insightful. It's one thing to read an article in Vanity Fair whether the virus has escaped from a lab, it's a totally different thing to listen to an expert that actually knows how to do gain of function research.
Maybe it's worth translating the transcriptions?
The number of ways in which we undertaking a natural experiment in viral evolution has been top-of-mind for me as well. But the greater issue in my view is not that the vaccines are imperfect. All vaccines are somewhat imperfect. On its own, I the mRNA vaccines were probably entirely adequate.
The problem is that the human population, as a result of policy decisions, will continue to have an immediately-adjacent reservoir of infection [0] with whom we are constantly in contact. I speak, of course, of the large numbers of unvaccinated among us. With vaccinated-to-vaccinated chains of transmission, there's a greater chance that a chain of vaccine-resistant variant will die out because the vaccine both reduces the risk of becoming infected [1] and the risk of transmitting infection [2].
But in a heterogeneous population, with large numbers of unvaccinated individuals, those chains of transmission can go on indefinitely, hopping back-and-forth between the two populations. That's a far greater risk here than the issue of a "leaky" vaccine. A vaccine might "leak" a little bit, yet the probabilities of infection and subsequent infection remain so low that all chains of transmission quickly terminate. Instead, we have a situation where the virus can slip into a separate (reservoir) population where it continues unchecked.
That, in my view, is the real risk to furthering infection.
[0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Natural_reservoir
[1] https://www.cdc.gov/media/releases/2021/p0607-mrna-reduce-ri...
[2] https://sporevidencealliance.ca/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/T...
So even if vaccines don't prevent the transmission or protect from infection worse than being severely infected then you might treat them just as a way of making you survive your first infection so that first infection can protect you better from further infections. If we didn't have or use vaccines we'd eventually end up in the same place with nearly all people eventually contracting covid at least once, just with a little more damage.
Research on covid is not done. We need therapies for acute covid. We need a way to treat and prevent long covid.
[0] https://www.pharmacytimes.com/view/study-covid-19-reinfectio...
Brazillian variant of vovid reinfects one in 6 people previously infected with earlier variant: https://www.bmj.com/content/373/bmj.n1353
This is not clear at all - actually the opposite might be the case. Natural immunity focuses on a number of 'markers' that are more likely to change than the spike protein.
As far as I know we don't know yet. Here is a comparison with other vaccines [1].
[1] https://twitter.com/ENirenberg/status/1412865782862725125
https://swprs.org/us-vaccine-deaths-increasing-rapidly/
"the human population, as a result of policy decisions, will continue to have ... large numbers of unvaccinated among us"
You need to rethink this for several reasons:
1. It's logistically impossible for everyone to be vaccinated simultaneously. This is not the result of policy decisions, it's a simple matter of distribution and manufacturing. There will therefore always be large numbers of unvaccinated living alongside the vaccinated for any vaccine. If they don't work given that fact then they are useless and should be abandoned.
2. Prior vaccination campaigns have worked or even wiped out whole diseases, even when there are lots of people who weren't vaccinated. If the new "vaccines" cannot do this then they aren't actually vaccines at all.
3. The idea that vaccines only work if everyone has taken them is entirely unsupported by any evidence or sound biological theory, quite clearly would not meet the definition of a vaccine, and leads inevitably to evil totalitarianism in which people are forced to take an endless parade of injections regardless of whether they're at risk, regardless of the severity of the disease which is being treated and regardless of how many safety protocols were skipped.
Much less BCG or variola (pox).
Viruses like flu and coronaviruses, nigh impossible to eradicate.
1 and 3, sure. And mRNA vaccine is not particularly more dangerous than any other type. The cost-benefit is strongly on the side of vaccination there.
Unfortunately, there is evidence that trials under-state risks. Evidence for this is:
1. Safety notices for the vaccines have been edited post launch to start talking about risks of heart inflammation and other problems, which were not detected by the trials but are now common enough to justify people being warned about them.
2. Drug trials appear to regularly understate the scale of side effects and nobody can figure out why: https://sebastianrushworth.com/2021/07/19/do-drug-trials-und...
Additionally, the trials never formally completed, cannot now complete because the control groups have been vaccinated, and some of them excluded whole groups of people e.g. pregnant women, children and in some cases the elderly!
This leads to an absurd situation in which the US CDC is saying that the vaccine is safe for pregnant women simultaneous with Moderna starting trials in pregnant women (who were previously excluded).
And finally, putting all those problems to one side, the issue is actually relative risks. Even if the risk of a vaccine is low, even if similar to or higher than the risks of the thing it's trying to vaccinate you against, it may not make sense to take it. That is just basic cost/benefit analysis.
mRNA vaccine is not particularly more dangerous than any other type
I don't understand how that is consistent with the data from the various vaccine surveillance systems which show clearly that it's drastically more dangerous. It's also inconsistent with anecdotes that I've been hearing from people around me, of whom a disturbingly large number say that the vaccines made them very sick (i.e. they describe symptoms similar to that of COVID itself).
I read a lot of your other comments so far and I had a suspicion, but this lone comment of yours confirmed it for me. You have some basic internal fear of the vaccine so you've done a bunch of rationalizing to make it seem worse and confirm your own bias.
I've looked at the VAERS data this morning for the US and you have a much higher chance of getting hit by a car and dying, or as is the very prescient case, getting COVID and having more adverse affects from that than an adverse vaccination, but I'm not going to convince you of anything because of that basic fear you have.
a. Not very charitable.
b. Not the simplest possible explanation.
Occam would not approve.
The one source you provide is embarrassingly poorly founded. It takes garbage input sources, obscures even the meager data in them and then decreases the quality of the claims even further with misleading representations. Here's just one example to show explicitly what I'm taking about with my claim. "A recent analysis by researchers at Queen Mary University in London found that even in senior citizens, about 85% of deaths reported to VAERS were definitively, likely or possibly caused by the vaccine." That language implies heavily "85% scary!" when in fact that the claim by the paper is "15% were confirmed to have nothing to do with the vaccine" and as you read further their results show even less than that. I'm just going to go in order through my notes from a critical read of the paper for more background, these are not prioritized or meant to be hard exclusion criteria on their own but rather straws on the camels back. The project this paper was published under is not specialized in this area, making me suspicious that they are qualified for this analysis at all. "PAMBAYESIAN is a 3-year EPSRC funded project to develop a new generation of intelligent medical decision support systems based on Bayesian networks. The project focuses on home-based and wearable real-time monitoring systems for chronic conditions including rheumatoid arthritis, diabetes in pregnancy and atrial fibrillation. The project has the potential to improve the well-being of millions of people." Looking through through the credentials and publication history of all the authors seems to confirm that they may not have the relavant foundation for this work. There is absolutely no statistical analysis anywhere in the paper and the authors acknowledge their data set is what I would call almost but not quite entirely useless "This process is ongoing, as there are 1644 deaths in the dataset that have been reported in patients who had recently received their first or second COVID-19 vaccination, and over 28,000 serious adverse events that did not result in death. This interim results paper presents information on the first 250 reported deaths that have been reviewed and coded by our team. Obviously, these results cannot be generalised as the sample is heavily biased - these were all people vaccinated very early in the programme when only the elderly, those with significant or chronic health conditions and frontline health service staff were being vaccinated." And finally the actual claim that is attempted to be made by the paper authors is "But there are some important findings. that the only patients where a vaccine allergic reaction be ruled out as contributing to death were 34 (14%) who were all either already bedridden, at end of life, and expected to die anyway from a serious comorbid like lung cancer or were on palliative hospice care. We also found that for at least 13 of the 250 deaths (5%), a vaccine allergic reaction was indisputably the most likely direct cause for the symptoms and patient outcomes described." They found 13 very ill people whose deaths, in a third party's interpretation of case notes, were contributed to by an allergic reaction to receipt of the vaccine. 5% of the most delicate people had a normal reaction to receiving any vaccine and because of their extreme poor health or their quality of care were not able to be helped with standard intervention for such a reaction. Shocking stuff that.
I think you should take a serious critical look at this data source swprs.org and how much of things you think you know have been influenced by it.
Firstly, the claims aren't extraordinary. There is a long history of vaccines being suspended for being more dangerous than is worth it, for example here's a CNN archival story about that:
https://edition.cnn.com/2009/HEALTH/04/30/swine.flu.1976/ind...
"ATLANTA, Georgia (CNN) -- The man who led the response to the 1976 swine flu outbreak is defending the vaccination campaign that led to more deaths than the disease, but says he's sorry for the people killed or sickened ... the program was suspended after at least 25 people died from vaccine reactions"
In 2010 there was another Swine Flu scare but not much was learned: Pandemrix was authorized and sold in Europe but turned out to occasionally create narcolepsy in teenagers. Although rare, swine flu was sufficiently mild that this was much worse for the affected people than actually getting the disease would have been. There was a coverup and the true nature of what happened only came out 5 years later thanks to lawsuits.
So there's nothing odd about the idea that a vaccine may yield more injuries or deaths than it can save. It's happened before.
Now, I've already cited the evidence you require: the data from national vaccine reporting systems. That's the graph at the top of the page I linked. You appear to have simply ignored the graph and then gone off on some other link to a paper you found there, which isn't what I was referring to, and at any rate seems to actually support my point. Multiply the Y axis of the graph by 0.85 if you want - the numbers are still radically higher than the normal expected rate of vaccine side effects. Or don't. But actual government data cannot be handwaved away with an argument of the form, "some random paper looking at the data has some limitations that it openly admits to" because I wasn't basing my point on that paper to begin with.
You made a pretty explicit claim earlier in this thread "The mRNA vaccines are not "adequate": they are being treated by governments as if they aren't working whilst also being significantly more dangerous than every other vaccine programme out there by a long way". Talking about historic or generalized vaccine ROI is different and is a new claim that isn't really on topic. I have no interest in arguing that all vaccines have always been perfect or that you can't have a generalized concern. Your claim that current mRNA vaccines for an ongoing pandemic are not adequate and are dangerous is an extraordinary claim and do need evidence.
Which brings us back to the point. I went into the analysis of the VAERS data because it needs analysis. It is a fairly raw data set meant for usage and analysis by professionals. We pumped millions of data points in to it this year, seeing a spike doesn't mean anything without analysis. How many people out of the population who were vaccinated were expected to be dying of strokes and heart attacks in the same time period? Here's a great write-up that goes into the details: https://medium.com/microbial-instincts/underreporting-and-po...
1. Does it work? In the UK even people who have completed both rounds of vaccination are having restrictions imposed on them. Contact tracing has not been ended there and is now triggering a full blown "pingdemic" that is causing a generalized economic crisis in which supermarket shelves are emptying, port authorities are warning of further supply chain disruptions and TV shows have been knocked off the air. This is incompatible with the idea that vaccines work and very incompatible with the narrative that was previously being sold, that vaccines were a way out and would mark the end of the restrictions.
Hence, governments are acting as if the vaccines are not adequate solutions to the crisis.
2. Are they dangerous? You raise good questions. Unfortunately the article you link to is paywalled. However, I've also read deeper analyses of VAERS data + similar databases from other countries that look at this and conclude:
2a. Background reporting rates for other vaccines are similar to what would be expected normally. There is no evidence that current events are inflating the reporting rate (or decreasing it).
2b. Studies of reporting rates in pre-COVID years have indicated a very high rate of under-reporting. https://www.openvaers.com/images/r18hs017045-lazarus-final-r...
Fundamentally although the Y axis may not be accurate, the trend is hard to ignore. The data has gone vertical in 2021. Once massively increased awareness is excluded as a possibility, I don't see how other conclusions are possible.
At one point it claims the only vaccine to be withdrawn post-approval is for rotavirus. Perhaps he means, in the USA and only after VAERS was set up. There were other vaccines withdrawn post-rollout than that one. The CNN article I cited already is one American example but there are others. Note that "withdrawn" is a slightly vague standard, for example, in the Pandemrix case, German doctors refused to use it in Germany even though it had been approved elsewhere, which in hindsight turned out to be the right call. Does that count as withdrawn: hard to say.
My own views aren't exclusively based on VAERs. I am convinced there must be very widespread under-reporting because of how ideological vaccination has become. The reason I think this is that I keep encountering anecdotes in my daily life from people who had extremely severe reactions to the vaccine but are blowing it off as no big deal. I'm not seeking these anecdotes out. I don't ask people about their vaccines. Yet, I keep hearing about these problems anyway. For example:
Two neighbours of the parents of my partner, who both died after taking the vaccine.
A scientist I know was trying to convince me the vaccines are perfectly safe, then almost in the same breath admitted that it knocked him flat for days and made him so sick he could hardly move. That does not meet my definition of "safe".
A friend told me he'd been walking down the street when he overheard a conversation by a guy on a phone behind him. The guy was saying that someone in his close family had died days after taking the vaccine.
I had a similar experience: I overheard a conversation when people who knew each other bumped into each other near where I was sitting in a park. One of the women had clearly not been seen for a while because of severe reactions to her first dose. She described having high fever, difficulty breathing and being unable to leave her bed for a week. She also said she "thought she was dying".
Outside of daily life, I read a news story a few days ago about a guy whose wife died just days after taking the vaccine. She was perfectly healthy before, early 60s, no signs of any problems.
All this is really quite disturbing. I've never heard such a constant flow of stories about any other vaccine. Also, the symptoms people describe are very similar to actually having COVID itself, which is not a big surprise when you look at how the vaccines work. Actually the most disturbing thing is people's reactions to it. The guy whose wife died stressed in the news story that he's a big supporter of the vaccines, and just wanted people to know that some families are "affected" by it. The women who got so sick she thought she was dying went back for her second shot anyway. The scientist was telling me how perfectly, totally, undoubtably fine mRNA Tech is and how it also made him so sick he couldn't work. The point of the vaccines is to stop people getting sick! But, they've been presented as a moral issue, one of collectivist responsibility, and governments have all committed themselves to vaccines-or-bust. I quite simply do not believe we have anything approaching valid data on how dangerous these things are.
A protein in the Swine Fly virus triggered narcolepsy in some people. You can get exposed to this protein both from the Pandemrix vaccine, and from getting sick from Swine Flu. China didn't vaccinate, but there was a spike in narcolepsy cases in China, from people who were infected by the virus.
https://stm.sciencemag.org/content/7/294/294ra105
https://www.pnas.org/content/113/3/E368.short
The whole point of vaccines is that they are much better than getting the virus itself, and for the classical vaccines that established the reputation of the technique, that's definitely the case. For cases like swine flu and now it seems maybe COVID, it's not at all clear that the vaccines are universally preferable to the disease, especially for the young. For one, COVID is mostly not dangerous to people under the age of 65 or so. For another, the symptoms are often mild. And the symptoms of the vaccine are often quite intense. mRNA vaccines create the same kind of cell death as the disease itself, they aren't just presenting the immune system with inactivated virus and letting it target practice on the vaccine particles: they turn the bodies own cells into target practice. That's a fundamental difference in approach.
When it gets into these sorts of grey zones of a vaccine with strong side effects and a not very deadly virus (for certain risk groups), a repeat of the Pandemrix disaster is not out of the realm of possibility.
Not sure if vaccines prevent any of this.
They surely prevent damage by reducing infection rates in fully vaccinated, but not sure if they can save you from damage, same way they are saving you from death if you contract the virus anyways.
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.07.13.21260393v...
We indeed don't know that much about the virus itself, what happens when one gets infected multiple times and when multiple vaccines are combined. We are going to find out either way. The goal of the vaccines and the other containment measures is to keep our health systems from collapsing. Whether or not we manage to eradicate Covid or to just force it into low-level virulence is not so important. It is probably not feasible to convince the public to hunt down Covid to extinction as with Smallpox.
1. Provide vitamin D3, zinc, and some zinc ionophore to the masses and advertise the benefits. Also, advise people to take a baby aspirin daily (slows viral replication and prevents blood clots).
2. Just like with cigarettes, have highly visual ads presenting the data that about a third of men have ED problems after surviving COVID-19. I think this would work better than anything else!
3. Have a ongoing campaign in prime time showing how to properly wear a face masks, what's the difference between a cloth one, a surgical one, and N95 - people still can't wear masks properly and have no idea what's the difference between a cloth one, a surgical one, and an N95/KN95/KF94/FFP2/FFP3.
The strains that are spreading were first detected well before widespread vaccination.
Widespread vaccination can increase the relative fitness of an existing strain of course, if it more or less eradicates less infectious strains.
that puts worksplace/etc. mandates into spotlight as their main rationale is to prevent the spread, ie. supposedly "it is not for you, it is for the others".
So, it sounds like as a result of such mandates we may end up in a situation where the only people spreading virus at work/hospitals/government offices/etc. would be the ones with a highly virulent variety less susceptible to vaccines.
I've wondered this ever since the UK changed it's approach and now that we've got to a state where there is pretty much no restrictions. I think scientists around the world also have this concern with the UK's approach
I mean the whole deal here was that if we got vaccinated we'd be back to normal life. If that wasn't the case they should've been sincere up front and most of us wouldn't have gotten vaccinated.
As the reports are overwhelming not about surprise deaths and not causal, the vaccines are somewhere between 170 times better and infinitely better than the disease.
> Not a day goes by where I don't hear about somebody dying shortly after getting the vaccine, often in novel ways like described here
And how many do you expect by coincidence in an ideal case where there are exactly zero side effects? Because it isn’t going to be zero coincidental deaths when there are 3.79 billion vaccination events. Not even zero per day.
You don’t get to opt out and attempting to do so gets you the 100 chambers. Neither you nor your family get to sue anyone in either case. If you opt for 100 either directly or by failing to make a choice fast enough, anyone around you who hasn’t faced the 200,000 yet — even if they wanted to — faces the 100 a few days later.
In other words, I have lots of information to help me efficiently avoid bad COVID impact; but I have no information to help me efficiently prevent bad vaccine impact.
Absent vaccines the disease only goes away when too many people have caught the illness; that means you can only avoid catching it with your approach (regardless of what it is!) if you are an unusual and exceptional case.
> There are alternative strategies that reduce your risk of getting COVID and risk of severe health results from COVID immensely
The best way to reduce the of risk of severe health results from COVID is literally take one of the twenty different vaccines with a variety of different operating principles behind them.
I don't disagree with that, although I am not sure either, it's too early to tell regarding unknown long-term efficacy and side-effects.
The point is, many people don't need to risk the (hypothetical) best way (TM) when there are proven different ways of reducing COVID impact of similar efficacy (those who care know about them, often posted for discussion here on HN). Especially given the censorship, one-sided expertology and disinformation about vaccines and available treatments from the governments, institutions and media.
These groups really f-d up the vaccination program with their despicable tactics and large masses of people are not going to vaccinate precisely because of that - the main vaccine pushers quickly became completely untrustworthy.
Personally what I would like is roughly what we've had in the UK for the previous few months. The ability to do mostly normal life, but with restrictions on large events and mandated precautions such as masks. Along with vaccinations that would probably have been a sustainable state. Unfortunately I strongly suspect that the complete opening up that we're currently seeing will only lead to further lockdowns in a few month's time. I would love to be proved wrong on this, but that's what it's looking like to me at the moment.
To be clear, are you stating you would like all large events to be permanently banned forever.
I really don't like this new orthodoxy of "safetyism" which to me is a slavish adherence to the precautionary principle, a general approach of authoritarianism, and excessive influence of technocratic institutions which aren't subject to the usual political processes. This kind of ideology existed long before COVID but the pandemic has massively increased its influence. If people like authoritarianism and technocracy I'd rather they argued for them openly and in good faith than trying to use the pandemic as a smokescreen. There's nothing wrong with arguing for these things but I cannot stand people who dress their political opinions in lab coats and try to pass them off as science. There's no one true approach here, and pretending there is has caused a lot of avoidable strife in my opinion.
Politics is so much more than "follow the science", I think we'll regret in the future that we only gave seats at the table to epidemiologists and bureaucrats when it came to this pandemic rather than including a far wider range of scientific disciplines, experts in philosophy (especially ethics), and broader industry representation. The events industry has been done dirty in my opinion for example.
We should have had all the information when we made the choice of getting vaccinated or not. You say most people would've gotten vaccinated, I say they wouldn't have. We'll never know, since we were lied to.
Your argument that the vaccine stops only symptoms and not the infection is false.
If that was true, we would not see countries that practically eradicated the virus instantly after vaccination (like Israel). The virus would still be spreading and infecting people, and those unvaccinated would still be getting seriously ill.
> That being said, IMO there seems to be a growing public opinion that unvaccinated individuals are to blame for the increasing dominance of variants of concern (delta, gamma, etc).
The vaccines have proved to be effective preventing infection from the original strains.
If people have vaccinated then, it is likely we would have been done with the virus.
Now, there were not enough vaccine doses to vaccinate everybody in the world in time, so a strain developing in a poor country could still reach western world. So it may not have been possible to prevent delta completely.
Source for this absurd claim?
Israel implemented vaccinations efficiently and very quickly their infection rates dropped close to zero.
I live in Poland and same thing happened here.
Now the infection rates grow again because the current vaccination rate and vaccine themselves are not enough to protect.
I wrote that in the post you responded to, it seems you kinda forgot to read the last sentence.
It is neither relatively new or understudied. Everyone's favourite "anti-vaxxer", the Godfather of the "Anti-Vaxx Movement", Andrew Wakefield has been saying so for some time.
Vaccines: Their Safety, Effectiveness, and Risks https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLbkS7FXQ1321h9H5HdbwP...
EDIT: Before I get downvoted completely into oblivion, take a look at the 90% reduction in infections, both symptomatic and asymptomatic, seen in vaccinated individuals in Israel. https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/33964222/
I think we can all agree that you can't transmit the virus if you yourself don't get infected.
What the RCTs for Pfizer and Moderna showed was that the vaccines reduced the symptomatic infection rate by 95%. But you are misconstruing the language being used if you extend that to say "the vaccine is known to be effective on a symptomatic level". The statement about symptomatic infection just means that it was impractical to have 42,000 people take a COVID nasal swab every day, and therefore they can make no professional scientific statements about the actual rate of infection.
But if you are aware of an RCT that actually established the vaccine as being ineffective at preventing infection, I would love to see it.
EDIT: And yes, I linked to observational data from Israel (TWICE) that showed real-world effectiveness in preventing both symptomatic and asymptomatic infections.
I think it is completely clear from the statement that you made that: the vaccines are effective at treating symptoms of covid and that they will reduce the symptomatic infection rates.
However, symptomatic infection rate and infection rate are decidedly not the same and we've know from the beginning that asymptomatic spread occurs substantially with covid.
The only way you establish the effect on transmission is with a large-scale RCT using a well-designed testing protocol. This may be hard but this is the standard.
This is no coincidence. The media has been directed to _not_ blame vaccines for ANYTHING, as doing so would negatively impact their narrative. It's well known that people vaccinated with leaky vaccines are the breeding ground for super-bugs, especially between they get their 1st and 2nd dose.
The problem? Since their immune system has been trained for only the spike protein, they will be at an immune disadvantage once the variant learns how to completely circumvent the vaccine-induced immune response (and trust me, that's where we're going with all these variants, it's no coincidence Pfizer is prepping the 3rd shot).
Once SARS-COV-2 has mutated enough to evade the current vaccine, we're going to have a resurgence of hospitalization and severe covid cases all around the world, but this time in VACCINATED people. Since their immune system has been primed by an incomplete vaccine, it will not generate multi-epitope antibodies any longer as it'll think "it got this handled" due to previous (incomplete) antibodies.
Of course, the media will blame the "unvaxxed", just as they started doing right now. More lockdowns will commence, more vaccines every few months (with compounding risks). Oh, did I mention that subsequent vaccines will be less effective the more you get vaccinated, because your body is already primed and it'll produce the antibodies from the 1st vaccines? Look into "Original Antigenic Sin" or OAS.
It's well known immunocompromised people are breeding grounds. One way to avoid that is vaccinating them early.
'it will not generate multi-epitope antibodies any longer as it'll think "it got this handled" due to previous (incomplete) antibodies.'
The immune system knows to benchmark existing antidotes. If the spike antibody isn't enough it will stop producing it.
Who told Fox News, when did they tell them, who did they tell (individuals, CEO, janitor), how many times did they told them?
Please be specific.
The authors of this study conjecture that the unvaccinated asymptomatic “patient 40” may have been the source of the infections seen in the other fully vaccinated patients - however this was a minor point as limited rational and evidence was provided.
That being said, IMO there seems to be a growing public opinion that unvaccinated individuals are to blame for the increasing dominance of variants of concern (delta, gamma, etc).
One counterpoint that I’ve come across during my own review of the literature, is the idea that imperfect vaccines can cause selective pressure which enhances the fitness of highly virulent pathogens. For example see this peer reviewed publication from 2015: “Imperfect Vaccination Can Enhance the Transmission of Highly Virulent Pathogens” (https://journals.plos.org/plosbiology/article?id=10.1371/jou...).
My understanding is that this is a relatively new and perhaps highly understudied phenomenon. I wanted to share the idea here because it seems conspicuously missing from many of these discussions. Furthermore, I’d love to hear feedback from someone with more expertise - or just trade relevant links with others who are diving into primary sources as a way to form an educated and well rounded opinion.