Isn't it more significant not where they emerge (which is by random mutation) but where they do well? And don't they seem to do well in countries that have vaccinated more people?
Is it even particularly easy to say where a variant originated? Could the mutations happen multiple times independently?
Random mutation happens more when we give it more chances, by letting it infect more unprotected people. We'd rather avoid that, so it's also important.
>Is it even particularly easy to say where a variant originated?
No, but we have gene sampling to help.
>Could the mutations happen multiple times independently?
They can and sometimes do happen independently.
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/07/20/world/asia/india-covid-pa...
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/05/25/world/asia/in...
> Analysis of samples from the patient showed that the virus evolved rapidly after the plasma therapy, developing mutations that changed how it could infect cells and resist antibodies.
Seems to be that the plasma therapy (injecting antibodies) is responsible here.
https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2021/02/05/9644470...
As GP pointed out, when the unvaccinated are at risk and vaccinated ones are carriers, the dynamics don't remain the same as in the case of Ebola / Nipah / MERS / J. Encephalitis, because the infection retains its virulence while evolutionary pressure selects for a fatal variant, a deadly combination.
https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/covid-variants-ma...
2) We can see with SARS and MERS that a more deadly form may actually reduce overall mortality, since the virus can't spread as effectively. However, we haven't had this effect so far.