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Re:Show HN: Should I Get a House? a better rent vs. buy calc... by alach11 on Monday July 19, 2021 @09:22AM (#27882358)
My wife wants to buy a house, but I'm unable to make life decisions without trying to minmax them. I wasn't satisfied with existing rent vs. buy calculators, so I decided to build my own! I'm not a developer, so I apologize if it's a little rough looking...

Some things it takes into account:

  - The actual rate of return on your down payment and extra costs of a house
  - Inflation
  - Itemized deductions on your taxes
  - The impact of state taxes
  - Mortgage interest deduction limit and SALT tax deduction limit
Let me know what you think or what improvements you would like to see!
Re:Show HN: Should I Get a House? a better rent vs. buy calc... by fennecfoxen on Monday July 19, 2021 @04:23PM (#27886885)
This is missing a rate of return on the money you would otherwise use for the down payment, information on whether that return would be taxable or is sheltered in a Roth or similar tax shelter, current and anticipated tax brackets if one sees that income taxed (at both time of sale and possibly retirement), current and anticipated capital gains rates that might apply to the gains from the home sale in the future (if you're over the threshhold)...
Re:Show HN: Should I Get a House? a better rent vs. buy calc... by pessimizer on Monday July 19, 2021 @05:18PM (#27887360)
> rate of return the money you would otherwise use for the down payment

Really the most important number, but all of these suggestions are crucial to the calculation. Money that doesn't get invested in a house gets invested in other things. Pretend it's in an index fund.

Re:Show HN: Should I Get a House? a better rent vs. buy calc... by motioncuty on Tuesday July 20, 2021 @01:15AM (#27890312)
But when you take out a morgage you can leverage 800k of the banks money at negative real interrst rates, effectively paying you tens of thousands over the course of the loan and any appreciation of that asset gets multiplied by 5x on your initial down payment.
Re:Show HN: Should I Get a House? a better rent vs. buy calc... by rashkov on Tuesday July 20, 2021 @02:04PM (#27897070)
Negative because the loan interest rate is below inflation?
Re:Show HN: Should I Get a House? a better rent vs. buy calc... by motioncuty on Tuesday July 20, 2021 @02:22PM (#27897309)
Yup, mortgages are around 3% and the fed rate is near 0 for the next year or 2. If inflation averages over 3% per year, you are getting paid the difference to borrow.
Re:Show HN: Should I Get a House? a better rent vs. buy calc... by Finnucane on Monday July 19, 2021 @10:22AM (#27882916)
Probably want to allow for the possibility of rent rises over time.

One thing that I think this actually shows pretty well is the notion that part of the answer depends on how long you intend to stay in a place. If you expect to move in two or three years, it's probably not worth the hassle/expense of buying. If you intend to stay 5+ years in one place, it makes more sense to buy.

Re:Show HN: Should I Get a House? a better rent vs. buy calc... by HideousKojima on Monday July 19, 2021 @04:47PM (#27887090)
>Probably want to allow for the possibility of rent rises over time.

Most definitely, my apartment before buying a home was ~$100/month less than my current mortgage, now (3 years later) the rent for the exact same apartment is ~$300/month more than my mortgage.

Re:Show HN: Should I Get a House? a better rent vs. buy calc... by pessimizer on Monday July 19, 2021 @05:23PM (#27887415)
> Probably want to allow for the possibility of rent rises over time.

Isn't that counting inflation twice?

Re:Show HN: Should I Get a House? a better rent vs. buy calc... by extortionist on Tuesday July 20, 2021 @12:40AM (#27890148)
Rents are only a part of inflation measurements and can easily outpace the general rate.

California's recent rent control laws caps rent increases at 10% or 5% + the yearly CPI increase (whichever is less) every year, for example, explicitly allowing rent increases to outpace the general inflation rate. Personally, the rent I pay has gone up 9% this year.

Rents can change based on whether an area becomes more or less desirable, as insurance or other costs for landlords change, as ownership of rental units consolidates, etc.--that is, for many reasons that might be only tangentially connected or even completely divorced from the reasons that the costs of other goods and services are changing.

Re:Show HN: Should I Get a House? a better rent vs. buy calc... by stonemetal12 on Monday July 19, 2021 @05:51PM (#27887657)
No, rents go up and down for reasons other than inflation.
Re:Show HN: Should I Get a House? a better rent vs. buy calc... by rory on Monday July 19, 2021 @08:09PM (#27888727)
That is another type of inflation, but it's an interesting point that you may care about both the general consumer inflation rate (for its interaction with the mortgage interest rate) and the rent price inflation rate.
Re:Show HN: Should I Get a House? a better rent vs. buy calc... by stonemetal12 on Tuesday July 20, 2021 @08:57AM (#27893153)
I just assumed the inflation rate was applied to both rent and house price, as a general change in the value of a dollar. While they mostly move in line together, rent prices and home prices don't always move together so a change in value term that effects one and not the other might be useful.
Re:Show HN: Should I Get a House? a better rent vs. buy calc... by kylestlb on Monday July 19, 2021 @10:59AM (#27883372)
This all depends on geography though. Buying in the bay area and only staying for 2.01 years could get you a pretty hefty ROR assuming you don't remodel anything, considering the supply constraints. Maybe covid & remote work will change that.
Re:Show HN: Should I Get a House? a better rent vs. buy calc... by Finnucane on Monday July 19, 2021 @11:35AM (#27883782)
Maybe. Flipping is a risky business. Returns are not guaranteed. If you're just looking for a place to live, you should really evaluate it on that basis.
Re:Show HN: Should I Get a House? a better rent vs. buy calc... by plank_time on Monday July 19, 2021 @05:30PM (#27887469)
I know something who went bankrupt and got a divorce after flipping condos in chicsgo just before the housing bust. It works until it doesn’t and it’s usually catastrophic.
Re:Show HN: Should I Get a House? a better rent vs. buy calc... by anotherman554 on Monday July 19, 2021 @04:52PM (#27887124)
The best/ most powerful rent vs buy calculator I am aware of is the one offered here:

https://michaelbluejay.com/house/rentvsbuy.html

browsing it might give you some ideas of features you can add to your calculator. It's also a small thing but having the choice to select the downpayment based on percentage down might be nice.

I don't know why your calculator tells me getting a house is not worth even if it thinks the transaction is profitable. It states my cumulative profit is $29,030 but I shouldn't get a house.

Re:Show HN: Should I Get a House? a better rent vs. buy calc... by alach11 on Monday July 19, 2021 @05:23PM (#27887413)
The determination of whether to buy the house is based on the calculated rate of return. So even if you make a profit, if the time horizon is large you’d be better off investing that money in stocks.

The UI doesn’t make that clear enough.

Re:Show HN: Should I Get a House? a better rent vs. buy calc... by barrkel on Monday July 19, 2021 @06:11PM (#27887873)
Houses are both leveraged investments (in a non-productive depreciating asset, I know, I know) and a forced savings mechanism. Investment in stocks by average people is not leveraged, and nor is there a forcing function that makes you put money into the stocks every month or you end up homeless.

These two functions have some value - especially the latter.

Re:Show HN: Should I Get a House? a better rent vs. buy calc... by majormajor on Monday July 19, 2021 @05:57PM (#27887728)
> The determination of whether to buy the house is based on the calculated rate of return. So even if you make a profit, if the time horizon is large you’d be better off investing that money in stocks.

Can you give a more detailed example? What time horizon are you picturing? After you pay off the house you lose the leverage advantage of returns on selling a house you bought with a mortgage vs selling stocks, but you also stop having to pay the mortgage at all while you'd still be renting, likely at a far higher market rate, so looking at the post-mortgage-payoff curves, it's hard for me to see where the invested down payment + (mortgage + tax + upkeep - minus - rent) returns would be expected to be high enough to make up for that.

(The more rational counterargument, though, would likely be around diversification? Better to have land + stocks then just one...)

Re:Show HN: Should I Get a House? a better rent vs. buy calc... by anotherman554 on Tuesday July 20, 2021 @09:38AM (#27893535)
It doesn't always make sense to buy rather than rent, but it all depends on your assumptions for stock returns vs house prices changes, inflation, maintenance, real estate tax increases, rent increases, how long you expect to live in a house and if there's an arbitrage in the local market between renting and buying.

Also most people don't buy a house for life, and if you sell the house through a realtor they get 6% or so of the proceeds.

This isn't something you can just logic an answer for without running it through a rent vs buy calculator, but investment expert and author William Bernstein suggests a rule of thumb that you should not spend more than fifteen years of market rent on a house purchase. In other words you can look up what the house you are considering buying would cost to rent, and as a rule of thumb if the sale price is more than 15 years of rent it's a bad deal. This is obviously an imprecise rule of thumb since it doesn't account for variations in real estate tax per region, but it's a starting point if you don't have a good rent vs buy calculator.

Re:Show HN: Should I Get a House? a better rent vs. buy calc... by wonnage on Monday July 19, 2021 @11:14PM (#27889718)
Stock returns are generally higher than real estate. So you might start off with higher YoY values for the house initially, due to leverage (1.03x a big number vs 1.07x a small number), but stock would catch up over time.
Re:Show HN: Should I Get a House? a better rent vs. buy calc... by irrational on Monday July 19, 2021 @05:14PM (#27887328)
I wonder if it is purposefully biased towards renting so he can use it to convince his wife to rent when he says that she wants to buy.
Re:Show HN: Should I Get a House? a better rent vs. buy calc... by plank_time on Monday July 19, 2021 @05:28PM (#27887456)
Some decisions aren’t mathematical. Sometimes it’s better to make a decision based on whether or not it makes sense for the family as opposed to dollars and sense.

If your wife wants to buy a place, I suggest finding a compromise to figure out how to make both parties happy.

Re:Show HN: Should I Get a House? a better rent vs. buy calc... by seoaeu on Tuesday July 20, 2021 @01:15PM (#27896469)
At the same time, you should be highly skeptical of anyone encouraging you to make what might be the single largest purchase of your life without carefully working through the financials. Maybe your preferred option will cost you an extra $50,000 over the next decade and you decided to go with it anyway. That's totally fine as long as it is a conscious choice. If the difference is $500,000 then perhaps you should consider how strongly you actually care about renting vs. buying...
Re:Show HN: Should I Get a House? a better rent vs. buy calc... by madcaptenor on Monday July 19, 2021 @11:10AM (#27883491)
This is nice. I definitely played around with some calculators like this when I was deciding to buy a house a few years ago.

Off the top of my head, some things I'd add to make this more useful to a wide audience:

- I don't know what I pay in state income and sales taxes. But I do know my income and my state's tax rate; income tax could be derived from that. I'm not sure how you'd estimate sales tax, though - you'd have to know how much of my spending is taxable.

- I've heard a rule of thumb that home maintenance costs are 1% of the home's value per year; maybe default to that, especially since a first-time home owner doesn't really know what those costs are. However, older houses will require more maintenance and that cost probably scales with square footage, not cost.

- you're assuming a 30-year mortgage - I'd put in the ability to change mortgage length. (Also, maybe a link to somewhere where I can find out what mortgage rates are.)

Re:Show HN: Should I Get a House? a better rent vs. buy calc... by hirsin on Monday July 19, 2021 @04:24PM (#27886890)
Maintenance cost likely scales with both size and cost. Size, for obvious reasons, and cost because the labor/materials cost of a repair is likely correlated with housing prices in the area. You then have to account for the portion of cost that's already correlated with size...

+1 to mortgage length. We heavily pivoted our decision to buy on getting a 7 year ARM because my friend and I knew we wouldn't grow old together there (wanting to do things like get married and have our own families). A time bomb on the mortgage was a feature, for us, and a cost savings.

Re:Show HN: Should I Get a House? a better rent vs. buy calc... by rory on Monday July 19, 2021 @08:15PM (#27888773)
In my experience as a small-time landlord, maintenance does scale somewhat with cost, but not linearly. A lot of big costs on the materials side (like say, a furnace) are more or less fixed. At least, repairs don't cost 4x as much in a 800k house as they do in a 200k house of the same size.
Re:Show HN: Should I Get a House? a better rent vs. buy calc... by BeetleB on Monday July 19, 2021 @05:39PM (#27887554)
> I've heard a rule of thumb that home maintenance costs are 1% of the home's value per year

It's a very poor rule of thumb. Contrary to the other comment, these costs don't increase linearly with value of the house. Sure, if I live in an expensive area, it may go up 30%, but not much more. Looking at how much my house has appreciated, I can assure you I pay not much more in maintenance than when I bought it.

The 1% rule came about when the median house price was under $200K.

Re:Show HN: Should I Get a House? a better rent vs. buy calc... by FireBeyond on Tuesday July 20, 2021 @06:44PM (#27900242)
There's a very interesting subset of people on Reddit's Personal Finance forum who seem to think that buying was the right move (kinda, see below) for them, but that renters "don't know how good they have it".

Watch any one of the threads on "should I buy/can I afford/pros/cons", and you'll see a vocal subset who seem hellbent on convincing people that owning a house is nothing more than opening your wallet/checkbook/credit card every other weekend for the "next four digit maintenance issue".

Re:Show HN: Should I Get a House? a better rent vs. buy calc... by madcaptenor on Wednesday July 21, 2021 @11:48AM (#27907826)
I can sympathize with that. Buying a house was the right move for me but my wallet screams sometimes.

(I feel the same way about having kids.)

Re:Show HN: Should I Get a House? a better rent vs. buy calc... by ghaff on Monday July 19, 2021 @06:15PM (#27887914)
Furthermore, if you live in an early 1800s farmhouse like I do (which was very much a fixer-upper when I moved in and still sort of is), that's a very different situation from a modern in-city condo or even a new development.
Re:Show HN: Should I Get a House? a better rent vs. buy calc... by sjg007 on Tuesday July 20, 2021 @12:15AM (#27890004)
If your wife wants to buy a house… buy the house.
Re:Show HN: Should I Get a House? a better rent vs. buy calc... by codegeek on Monday July 19, 2021 @05:37PM (#27887531)
Nice project but if you are serious about buying a home, don't just look at numbers. Figure out what you and your wife want for yourself in next 2-5-7 years. If you see you guys staying in 1 place and build a family further, buying a home may not be a bad idea considering your finances are in shape (good credit, have 20% downpayment etc etc). I would say rule of thumb is 7 years in 1 place. If you are going to live in same place for 7+ years, buy with 20% down and total cost not >25-30% of monthly pay.
Re:Show HN: Should I Get a House? a better rent vs. buy calc... by someelephant on Monday July 19, 2021 @05:56PM (#27887706)
Life opportunity cost. When you buy a house you are making a big commitment. It will guide the path of your life. These days with remote work that's less and more of an issue. What if you would be happier living in the south of France?
Re:Show HN: Should I Get a House? a better rent vs. buy calc... by simonw on Monday July 19, 2021 @05:16PM (#27887339)
I'd love it to provide some mechanism for guestimating my taxes (maybe based on the state or city I live in) - I was too lazy to dig out a tax return to fill out those fields, which meant I couldn't easily use the calculator.
Re:Show HN: Should I Get a House? a better rent vs. buy calc... by ghaff on Monday July 19, 2021 @07:05PM (#27888302)
Especially outside of major cities, there are about a gazillion towns that have different tax rates that go to paying the local schools, emergency services, and town administration. Maybe there are APIs for that sort of information but I don't know.
Re:Show HN: Should I Get a House? a better rent vs. buy calc... by simonw on Monday July 19, 2021 @07:20PM (#27888392)
That's why I want a guesstimate - give me a rough idea of how the tool works and that will convince me to dig out a tax return and fill in the fields for the most accurate estimate possible.
Re:Show HN: Should I Get a House? a better rent vs. buy calc... by ransom1538 on Monday July 19, 2021 @09:41PM (#27889266)
The home only expenses (down payment, home owners, etc) when you chose rent should be converted to a standard rate of return of VOO (index of SP 500) for the 15 years. THIS would be the greatest calculator ever built ever.
Re:Show HN: Should I Get a House? a better rent vs. buy calc... by reggiepret on Monday July 19, 2021 @09:51AM (#27882646)
this is great!!

The final cashflow amount of the house graph (in the example) ends in the negative, s this accurate?

Re:Show HN: Should I Get a House? a better rent vs. buy calc... by alach11 on Monday July 19, 2021 @09:59AM (#27882726)
It is accurate! While the house cashflow is negative in the example, it's at least less negative than the apartment cash flow. Maybe the moral of the story is living with your parents for free is better than either option!
Re:Show HN: Should I Get a House? a better rent vs. buy calc... by mikepurvis on Monday July 19, 2021 @05:10PM (#27887287)
Depending on your circumstances, it may not be possible to seriously consider it, but another alternative to rent-vs-buy might include various van/camper/coach options, which can be parked for months at a time at "seasonal" campsites, often for $500-1000/month.

Obviously equipment like this isn't going to appreciate either, and you'll be subject to all the same maintenance costs of owning, so in some ways it's the worst of both worlds— but it may still be cheaper than trying to rent if you can't or won't enter the market right now and mooching from family isn't an option.

Re:Show HN: Should I Get a House? a better rent vs. buy calc... by jolmg on Monday July 19, 2021 @11:07AM (#27883463)
If this calculator is rent vs buy, why does the graph compare house vs apartment? For both houses and apartments, they can be bought or rented. Are you someplace where one type of home can only be bought and the other can only be rented?
Re:Show HN: Should I Get a House? a better rent vs. buy calc... by alach11 on Monday July 19, 2021 @12:00PM (#27884071)
Nah this is just bad terminology on the site. I’ll fix it. In my personal situation I’m deciding between continuing to rent my apartment vs. buying a house.
Re:Show HN: Should I Get a House? a better rent vs. buy calc... by shadowlight on Monday July 19, 2021 @11:11AM (#27883499)
Automated state tax generation. Historical house appreciation by state or even better, city.

Option to account for income from money in sp500.

Re:Show HN: Should I Get a House? a better rent vs. buy calc... by phkahler on Monday July 19, 2021 @04:22PM (#27886877)
>> My wife wants to buy a house...

A pilot once shared with me the rule of the three F's. If it floats, flies, or fornicates, it's cheaper to rent than to own. You may substitute a 4 letter word for that last one.

Anyway, you got a wife already so thats one. House don't start with F, so buy.

Re:Show HN: Should I Get a House? a better rent vs. buy calc... by camjohnson26 on Monday July 19, 2021 @05:29PM (#27887461)
Seems like an oversimplification, usually it depends on other factors like how long you plan to live there.