Poland isn't that far from Belarus (they are direct neighbours). People travel overland between those two, it is also quite a bit cheaper.

Even Czech Belarussians tend to take the bus back home.

It is going to be worse for expats in France or Britain, though.

I doubt that the land borders will remain open and easy to traverse. It’s likely that this is the beginning of an escalation on both sides.

Beyond that, Poland may be bordering Belarus, but Poland is a huge country. Berlin to Minsk is 1,100 km, a 12-13 hour bus ride at minimum. Add a 2-3 hour wait at the border to be realistic. This all adds up to a much longer trip than a 1-2 hour flight. Especially for immigrants that are probably visiting home for a weekend trip and can’t afford to waste 3 days just on traveling.

I know. Pre-war Czechoslovakia was a long noodle and people from Carpathian Ruthenia (a region annexed by the USSR in 1945 and attached to Ukrainian SSR) still come to Prague to work. They usually take buses from Uzhhorod to Prague (750 km), the journey lasts about 13 hours.

Yeah, no one does a weekend hop to family and back under such conditions. Visits are monthly.

Warsaw to Minsk buses take about 12 hours too. But the ticket is cheap, about 20 eur. I don't think you can buy an air ticket under 100 eur. Perhaps even much more (150-200).

Given that a lot of the people work for peanuts, they choose the far cheaper option even if it means a much longer and uncomfortable journey.

I agree that many people that didn't have a say in this will be affected. Do you have any suggestions on better measures that the EU could have taken? Or should the EU have taken no measures at all?

I'm fairly sure Lukashenko/Putin was expecting (possibly even counting on) some kind of reaction. This has Putin's fingerprints all over it, actually.

He set up a kind of win/win situation. Sanctions have a habit of backfiring at the best of times, and he's set up a situation where the hypocrisy of the EU/US can be hammered home in domestic propaganda with persistent comparisons to Morales/Snowden incident. It'll be hard for pro western Belarussian politicians/journalists to effectively rebut these.

Meanwhile they can gently guide Belarussians into going on holiday in Russia where they might have gone to Europe if flights are banned. Isolating them this way would be a feature, not a bug.

If, on the other hand, the EU/US just sanction a few individuals they look weak and Lukashenko looks strong.

It's quite the pickle.

Of course he did. It just got a lot harder for Belarusians to come to the West / Westerners to visit Belarus. You can now expect Belarus to cancel its 30 days visa-free entrance program, which requires that visitors entered the country through the airport.

The actions by the EU only help Putin and Lukashenko.

No, they definitely should take some measures. Put stronger sanctions on those involved with the government, incentivize more immigration outside of Belarus, similar things.

Banning Belarusian airlines will only affect regular people. Those in the government don't rely on public airlines anyway.

Target the elite instead of the people

The elite have already been forbidden from entering or doing business with the EU since November.

This is not entirely true. Even the elite who were included in the sanction lists (Russian) are regularly noticed in the EU countries. They can come to rest through diplomatic channels or through bribes. Also children of people under sanctions live mainly in EU or the USA. While they are investing in those countries, they are not asked questions about the origin of the money

Then go after their offshores. Then start targeting their ties inside russian elite

> Then go after their offshores.

Nobody ever touches offshore havens since rich people from everywhere have money there.

It took 9/11 for Switzerland to not laugh at law enforcement request from other countries. (Probably still laughs to anyone thats not US and maybe EU)

> Then go after their offshores.

What, specifically, does this mean? The EU sanctions, idk, the Bahamas? Who? And how?

I mean seize illegally earned money and/or forbid them and their families spending those money in the EU and other friendly jurisdictions. EU as a whole should have enough weight to make it happen if enough political will is present.

They are already forbidden to conduct any business, i.e. spend any money, in the EU.

To literally "seize" the money stored in an offshore bank account is difficult unless the EU is also willing to march an army into those countries.

It's group guilt and punishment, a dehumanizing practice that ignores personal circumstances and is OK with collateral damage. A blunt tool.

What would you suggest? Nothing, since economic sanctions have the same issue? "Humane" poisonings of involved politicians using exotic isotopes and/or nerve agents? Airstrikes and betting on Putin folding?

Such tyranny exist because people allow it. Do you think nations should not bear responsibility for _their_ governments?

By that logic, millions of people from dozens of countries in the Middle East and Africa should be punished for the actions of their government.

Exactly how does that help anyone?

Do you also think it's a problem to fine companies when they do bad things?

So we should ban all flights from certain countries in Africa and the Middle East because they have authoritarian governments? And we should do so until the people there violently overthrow their government?

Opinions like this only seem to come from Westerners who will never have to face the consequences of such actions. Geopolitics is complicated and as my original comment said, regular people are usually the ones getting hurt.

I didn't say this particular action was justified, I just think the "collective punishment" reason not to do it is a terrible idea that would make it impossible to take action against any organization ever. It's really a stretch to call something like this collective punishment.

If a government does anything there are regular people that are going to get hurt, but that's not a reason to stop governing.

How people are going to take responsibility if they are not going to feel consequences? Are they ever going to sort out their mess?

"Until you start a violent civil war to overthrow your government, we're going to make you, average citizen of Belarus, have a more difficult life."

That's effectively what happens. The problem with thee Russian border states is that the hope for strong external intervention isn't very high. But the closeness to russia is why the Annexation of Crimea ad the regime of Lukashenko and a few other dictators still exist.

To some extent you can target the elite and decisionmakers. But after a very short while, there is no easy way to separate "people" from the elite. Targeting businesses, exports and so on which is the next step - is always going to make the average citizen worse. But the argument works both ways: ensuring the wellbeing of the people helps the legitimacy and strength of the regime. I don't think anyone thinks it's a good idea to stop short of anything that makes the life of average belorussians worse.