I'm fairly sure Lukashenko/Putin was expecting (possibly even counting on) some kind of reaction. This has Putin's fingerprints all over it, actually.

He set up a kind of win/win situation. Sanctions have a habit of backfiring at the best of times, and he's set up a situation where the hypocrisy of the EU/US can be hammered home in domestic propaganda with persistent comparisons to Morales/Snowden incident. It'll be hard for pro western Belarussian politicians/journalists to effectively rebut these.

Meanwhile they can gently guide Belarussians into going on holiday in Russia where they might have gone to Europe if flights are banned. Isolating them this way would be a feature, not a bug.

If, on the other hand, the EU/US just sanction a few individuals they look weak and Lukashenko looks strong.

It's quite the pickle.

Of course he did. It just got a lot harder for Belarusians to come to the West / Westerners to visit Belarus. You can now expect Belarus to cancel its 30 days visa-free entrance program, which requires that visitors entered the country through the airport.

The actions by the EU only help Putin and Lukashenko.

No, they definitely should take some measures. Put stronger sanctions on those involved with the government, incentivize more immigration outside of Belarus, similar things.

Banning Belarusian airlines will only affect regular people. Those in the government don't rely on public airlines anyway.

Target the elite instead of the people

The elite have already been forbidden from entering or doing business with the EU since November.

This is not entirely true. Even the elite who were included in the sanction lists (Russian) are regularly noticed in the EU countries. They can come to rest through diplomatic channels or through bribes. Also children of people under sanctions live mainly in EU or the USA. While they are investing in those countries, they are not asked questions about the origin of the money

Then go after their offshores. Then start targeting their ties inside russian elite

> Then go after their offshores.

Nobody ever touches offshore havens since rich people from everywhere have money there.

It took 9/11 for Switzerland to not laugh at law enforcement request from other countries. (Probably still laughs to anyone thats not US and maybe EU)

> Then go after their offshores.

What, specifically, does this mean? The EU sanctions, idk, the Bahamas? Who? And how?

I mean seize illegally earned money and/or forbid them and their families spending those money in the EU and other friendly jurisdictions. EU as a whole should have enough weight to make it happen if enough political will is present.

They are already forbidden to conduct any business, i.e. spend any money, in the EU.

To literally "seize" the money stored in an offshore bank account is difficult unless the EU is also willing to march an army into those countries.