Strategically, Taiwan is an "unsinkable aircraft carrier" that China wants.
It's fairly easy to see China's future actions with any expanded territories that the rest of the world may allow with eyes downcast.
[1]:https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/One_country,_two_systems
China also has nuke you know, there is even a term for it: "mutually assured destruction".
They have seven SSBNs, one of which is a Xia-class which isn’t capable of launching SLBMs with significant range. The remaining six Jin-class SSBNs are notoriously noisy, which means they are relatively easy to locate and destroy.
per,
> convert its commercial industrial factory output into wartime use and just spam drones at Taiwan.
I also assume they'd use tactical nukes or munitions.
What good are nukes if you are not willing to use them and let others take what they want.
By having a very real threat of nuclear escalation you keep others at bay. That's how the US was kept out of cuba, that's how Russia was kept out of western europe.
Here, it's a very real threat of escalation:
- if China invades, US escalates conventionally and wipes out what it can. (conventional US missiles are not that far from tactical nukes, US navy will easily wipe out Chinese navy)
- Then China can escalate further by attacking US forces via land-to-sea missiles, aircrafts, etc, a few sunk aircraft carriers and you'll see the US out for blood.
- tactical nukes will likely be used by any side if it loses too badly.
- US could always do some risky air-strikes against Chinese leadership and close the war that way (or nukes start flying)
- China can't really reach the US mainland that easily and US has quite a few anti-missile forces off japan and on the mainland.
- at this point, it's survive who is best prepared. I'm assuming US will come off a lot better then China.
Taiwan doesn't have nukes, and China would not use nuke against them.
Once US intervenes, game changes.
different words, same meaning... In effect, China sending in military is an invasion... They will likely sell it as 'glorious reunification' 1984 style
While US does not recognize Taiwan it does guarantee it de facto. Not recognizing it is due to cold war politics where US needed China against Russia, that's no longer the case.
US still haven't established formal diplomatic relation with Taiwan, like all UNSC countries, your argument is simply invalid.
Here's the result of an invasion by people that have looked into this more: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Zs1ahNtj498
Here's info on US relationship with taiwan: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Taiwan%E2%80%93United_States_r...
> On July 14, 1982 the Republican Reagan Administration gave specific assurances to Taiwan that the United States did not accept China's claim to sovereignty over the island (Six Assurances),[37][39]
> Despite friendly relations with China, United States President George W. Bush was asked on 25 April 2001, "if Taiwan were attacked by China, do we (The U.S.) have an obligation to defend the Taiwanese?" He responded, "Yes, we do...and the Chinese must understand that. The United States would do whatever it took to help Taiwan defend herself."[43] He made it understood that "though we (China and the U.S.) have common interests, the Chinese must understand that there will be some areas where we disagree."[43]
Also, you have to be aware that Mao wanted to invade Taiwan but US got in the way then too (ignoring the complete incompetence and inability to launch naval invasion)
This is what I said:
> US needed China against Russia, that's no longer the case.
US no longer needs China against Russia... There's your money... What's hard to understand about that?
(USSR is gone, communism is gone, Russia is no longer the superpower it was although it still is a major threat)
Now, comment above was with respect to:
> US still haven't established formal diplomatic relation with Taiwan, like all UNSC countries, your argument is simply invalid.
Even though they haven't established formal relations, they still guarantee Taiwan, straight from the horses mouth in some cases -> see Reagan/Bush/Trump
When do you draw the line "US no longer needs China against Russia"?
In my opinion, not since 1989 when USSR crumbled.
Also, it's irrelevant, George Bush is quoted directly that US will intervene to defend Taiwan, same policy was from Reagan well within cold war. So I stand corrected, it does not matter if US needs or not China, it will intervene.
It's similar to cuba had the US invaded nukes would have been flying.
In this case you would see chinese invasion force wiped out and blockade, after which nukes will definitely be flying.
As if China has not?
The PRC has also invested heavily in missile technology and is perhaps ahead of the US in anti-ship missiles. It has also built up small positions that can be built up easily on the disputed reefs etc. in the South China Sea in anticipation of getting blockaded.
I say all of this in support of the thesis that drones will play a less decisive role than the navies of the two countries.
The two parts to a world-class navy are the ships and the men. China has already done the first part. I agree with you on the second part: the Chinese have not participated in large-scale armed conflict, so they don't have experience. But it must be borne in mind that the US has also not fought any big naval war in recent times and morale is very low because crews are being worked to the bone. Unless the USN addresses these challenges effectively, they don't hold a huge edge.
I agree. And China has never fought a major naval war or even a major naval battle.
>The two parts to a world-class navy are the ships and the men.
Part 3 is competent leaders. The US has admirals that have been taught by admirals that have been taught by admirals that have fought a major war in the Pacific. (Japan has them, too.) And China does not. George Friedman says that that is an important factor.
The war is already lost.
And for every year that China outgrows the US it just becomes more obvious.
Sow discontent in the periphery of China (HK, Xinjiang, Tibet). Tech war.
There is some evidence between the way the US was handling the middle east and last years notable war [0] that the military future involves drones. It isn't at all obvious from the peanut gallery that China will be at a disadvantage unless the situation gets apocalyptic. Even then, if they just wait or apply slow pressure it seems likely they'll eclipse the US to the point where Americans just can't afford to sustain operations on China's doorstep. China has all this money and America has all those debts. Wars are expensive.
[0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Nagorno-Karabakh_war