Taiwan doesn't have nukes, and China would not use nuke against them.
Once US intervenes, game changes.
different words, same meaning... In effect, China sending in military is an invasion... They will likely sell it as 'glorious reunification' 1984 style
While US does not recognize Taiwan it does guarantee it de facto. Not recognizing it is due to cold war politics where US needed China against Russia, that's no longer the case.
US still haven't established formal diplomatic relation with Taiwan, like all UNSC countries, your argument is simply invalid.
Here's the result of an invasion by people that have looked into this more: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Zs1ahNtj498
Here's info on US relationship with taiwan: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Taiwan%E2%80%93United_States_r...
> On July 14, 1982 the Republican Reagan Administration gave specific assurances to Taiwan that the United States did not accept China's claim to sovereignty over the island (Six Assurances),[37][39]
> Despite friendly relations with China, United States President George W. Bush was asked on 25 April 2001, "if Taiwan were attacked by China, do we (The U.S.) have an obligation to defend the Taiwanese?" He responded, "Yes, we do...and the Chinese must understand that. The United States would do whatever it took to help Taiwan defend herself."[43] He made it understood that "though we (China and the U.S.) have common interests, the Chinese must understand that there will be some areas where we disagree."[43]
Also, you have to be aware that Mao wanted to invade Taiwan but US got in the way then too (ignoring the complete incompetence and inability to launch naval invasion)
This is what I said:
> US needed China against Russia, that's no longer the case.
US no longer needs China against Russia... There's your money... What's hard to understand about that?
(USSR is gone, communism is gone, Russia is no longer the superpower it was although it still is a major threat)
Now, comment above was with respect to:
> US still haven't established formal diplomatic relation with Taiwan, like all UNSC countries, your argument is simply invalid.
Even though they haven't established formal relations, they still guarantee Taiwan, straight from the horses mouth in some cases -> see Reagan/Bush/Trump
When do you draw the line "US no longer needs China against Russia"?
In my opinion, not since 1989 when USSR crumbled.
Also, it's irrelevant, George Bush is quoted directly that US will intervene to defend Taiwan, same policy was from Reagan well within cold war. So I stand corrected, it does not matter if US needs or not China, it will intervene.
What good are nukes if you are not willing to use them and let others take what they want.
By having a very real threat of nuclear escalation you keep others at bay. That's how the US was kept out of cuba, that's how Russia was kept out of western europe.
Here, it's a very real threat of escalation:
- if China invades, US escalates conventionally and wipes out what it can. (conventional US missiles are not that far from tactical nukes, US navy will easily wipe out Chinese navy)
- Then China can escalate further by attacking US forces via land-to-sea missiles, aircrafts, etc, a few sunk aircraft carriers and you'll see the US out for blood.
- tactical nukes will likely be used by any side if it loses too badly.
- US could always do some risky air-strikes against Chinese leadership and close the war that way (or nukes start flying)
- China can't really reach the US mainland that easily and US has quite a few anti-missile forces off japan and on the mainland.
- at this point, it's survive who is best prepared. I'm assuming US will come off a lot better then China.