Same with housing. Nimbyism is such a big deal in the US because rather than seeing housing as a utility that should be cheap, it's become a store of value that must always go up.
There are always funds that do better, until they don't:
* https://awealthofcommonsense.com/2020/12/a-short-history-of-...
Over a 15-year timeframe, most fund managers (especially in the US) underperform benchmarks:
* https://www.ifa.com/articles/despite_brief_reprieve_2018_spi...
The problem appears when valuation are caused only by the "store of value" usage, because it has no anchor on the real world, and thus, can vary freely from 0 to infinity.
Similarly, if you need a risk-free value store (e.g. because you’re very close to retirement) the market is not going to provide that for you.
Edited to add: clarification about the analogy.
A more pressing matter is that people are no longer able to afford a house, especially if they're young / early in their career.
The interest rate was 7.5% and my friends told me I was foolish not to pay 9.0% for a 30-year fixed rate mortgage. They calculated nightmare scenarios if rates doubled or tripled while theirs held constant.
Every year since then, my interest rate reset downward until it hit the lower limit of 2%. Even though my required payment decreased, I kept paying the original payment amount and paid off the loan 10 years early.
My friends paid hundreds of thousands in additional interest over the years for the peace of mind of a fixed rate.
PSA: 2021 to 2031 might be different than 1998 to 2018.
Adjustable rate mortgages exist too but got a lot of people in trouble in 2008. I think a lot of them are only allowed to adjust by a certain percentage regardless of interest rates each year they’re eligible to.
https://www.marketplace.org/2018/10/31/why-do-we-have-30-yea...
* https://www.ratespy.com/best-mortgage-rates/10-year/fixed
* https://www.ratehub.ca/best-mortgage-rates/10-year/fixed
For down payments <20% mortgage insurance is needed (usually from the federal government subsidiary, like Fannie/Freddie), but not for larger down payments: that's all free market.
Some institutions offer 18- and 25-year terms.
Case in point: there is no such government policy in Spain, yet most banks happily offer fixed rates.
You just need to hedge the fixed mortgage you are selling and add some interest to make profit.
It's not just common in the US, it is the de facto standard across almost all mortgage types and sizes. Even weird, non-conforming properties with "jumbo" sized loans can get fixed at 30 years.
Also, I will point out that in both Switzerland and the Nordic Countries, 40 and 50 year mortgages are now in very common use:
"Repayment periods in Switzerland can be incredibly long, with deals lasting between 50 and 100 years being relatively common."[1]
"Swedish regulators calculated in 2013 that the average mortgage term was around 140 years."[2]
In fact, now that I think about it, I am surprised that the US culture of "financial innovation" has not produced more standardized long-duration mortgages ... I do not know anyone, for instance, with a 40-year term ...
[1] https://www.expatica.com/ch/housing/buying/your-guide-to-swi...
[2] https://www.thelocal.se/20160324/sweden-limits-mortgage-loan...
But, yes, buying with variable rate mortgages when interest is at historic lows rather than paying a little bit extra initially for fixed rates is risky, and on a society wide scale that risk is going to materialize at some level.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/teresaghilarducci/2020/08/31/mo...
https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2020/09/25/few-in-u-s-...
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-stocks...
Source: https://www.peoplespolicyproject.org/2018/05/01/only-1-in-3-...
> In 2018, the average account balance for Vanguard participants was $92,148; the median balance was $22,217. [emphasize added]
Source: https://pressroom.vanguard.com/nonindexed/Research-How-Ameri...
33% * %42 = ~14%. And while the number is debatable, depending on how we define "significant", only a portion of that 14% has significant wealth invested in the stock market.
I agree with the previous poster. The vast majority of Americans (including employed Americans) aren't invested in the stock market in any meaningful way.
See the performance of Venezuela's stock market over the last 5 years:
https://tradingeconomics.com/venezuela/stock-market
(The "crash" in late 2018 was the redenomination of the bolivar at a 1:1000 ratio, which affected everything denominated in bolivars, including the stock market.)
Honestly wealth growth is the least of my worries if we have another 1929 level crash or hyperinflation.
Though bitcoin has really been untested as a safe asset and currently behaves more like a speculative one.
But even though I'm optimistic about Bitcoin, I don't see it as crash-proof except in one crash scenario. It's mostly a speculative risk-on asset that loses value in crisis scenarios. We saw that in the covid crash in March last year as Bitcoin prices tumbled along with other markets.
The one crash scenario where Bitcoin doesn't crash is if Bitcoin is the thing that triggers a crisis of confidence in fiat assets. That's the hyperbitcoinization scenario that still looks improbable, but easier to imagine now than it was a couple years ago.
It would be interesting to see how much the gold mining industry contributes to global warming (including not just extraction, but processing and shipping). Trading, too, but I suppose that's done mostly by contract, and not shipping gold bars around...
When the next crash does come, I’m ready to buy.
Remember when the US outlawed holding gold? [1]
People could simply exchange their domestic currencies for foreign currencies of more stable countries. That's what happens in countries with hyperinflation right now, despite access to cryptocurrency.
The only real advantage of cryptocurrency is that it could be transferred around hypothetical government controls. That's more of an extreme edge case scenario, though.
To be clear: The US inflation is too high, IMO, but it's nowhere near hyperinflation or government collapse. The average citizen is more likely to benefit from recent stimulus packages than to lose out from it. It's not like everyone keeps their 401K invested in pure cash.
That said, we're overdue for interest rates to start creeping up. COVID is coming to an end quickly and the unemployment never really got out of control in the first place. People aren't going to go bankrupt if their mortgages go back to 4-5% instead of 2-3%
Most of the developed nations are competitively devaluing their currencies. If one country does it, they gain a trade advantage: their exports are relatively cheaper on the world market, so consumption flows to their industries and makes them wealthy. Therefore once one country does it, they all have to do it, lest all their export industries become uncompetitive and they lose those jobs.
I've heard some speculation (nicely backed up by data [1]) that the real reason we couldn't follow through with monetary tightening 2015-2018 is because it created a carry trade of investors borrowing in Euros and investing in dollars [2], which led to a continual outflow of dollars out the door.
If hyperinflation hits it will likely hit nearly all the developed world in short succession. If the dollar goes, all investors are going to dump dollars for Euros, but if they do that the value of the Euro will skyrocket, which means European exports will become super expensive and Euro-denominated debt will be harder to pay off, which will spur European central banks to dump more Euros into the system. As long as we have free capital flows there's no way around this: inflation in one fiat currency will lead to inflation in others. That's why people are looking for non-fiat currencies. (You're right that tradable assets like stocks can fulfill this job rather than cryptocurrency, though.)
[1] https://www.pimco.com.br/-/media/global-assets/resources/edu...
[2] https://www.ft.com/content/fe099068-169d-11ea-8d73-6303645ac...
I think that's the gist of it, and as such I also think that free capital flows will be massively restrained in the scenario you mention (a scenario which I also find very likely).
A similar thing has just happened with the freedom of movement for people, a "right" that the great majority of us had taken for granted, and then Covid came and that "right" was forgotten about like it never had existed.
Don't forget the ECB raised rates during the onset of the financial crisis circa 2007-8 when everyone else was cutting desperately because of their inflation targetting mandate.
[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Personal_consumption_expenditu...
I actually have spent considerable time poking through the basket definitions and while I was generally impressed by the effort I saw, the extreme sensitivity to minutiae and extreme incentives to obtain a particular conclusion make me hesitate to bet my portfolio on its integrity. I haven't re-implemented their entire methodology in an economic model and run monte-carlo simulations to evaluate their competence in the face of obvious hypotheticals but I'm pretty sure you haven't either. By comparison, "bet on assets to hedge inflation" requires much less concentrated faith in the continued wellbeing of a convenient scapegoat.
And then there are the other even more severely complicated parts. If next year's iPhone is better but costs the same amount, that's deflation. You got more for the same amount of money. How do we quantify that? Those are called hedonic improvements. How do you account for free services? What is Google worth? What if a new thing comes out that has never existed before? How do you compare that to the previous consumption basket? It would be relatively easy to argue that the preponderance of brand-new, incomparable, improving every year, cheap/free tech stuff that we are living in a relatively deflationary environment. You get more, better stuff every year for less money!
https://qz.com/1269172/the-epic-mistake-about-manufacturing-...
I found that episode informative and convincing, but in the exact opposite direction. I stuck my neck out on the basis of those numbers while arguing with conservative family members and it turns out the numbers were rigged after all. For a very reasonable definition of rigged.
In the face of shenanigans, I tend to put more faith in simple concepts like "assets hedge inflation" than in indices.
The "US manufacturing is super productive" narrative is unfortunate, especially if policymakers were making decisions based on it. But it doesn't really call into question the data or methodology, just that people have misinterpreted it. But the people who are actual experts in this area are writing papers about that! This paper is from 2014[1], and she's been writing about this since 2010! With economists from the Federal Reserve system, no less.
edit: I guess my point is, the point that article makes isn't, "the game is rigged, inflation is made up, we should use shells for currency." The point it makes is, "don't just read the top-line number and then write an opinion article, make sure you read the breakdown first."
Also, assets do hedge inflation. Most of them, anyway. I never argued otherwise. Just that asset price increases are not the same thing as inflation.
My invocation of the term "rigged" was not charitable but that's pretty far from saying it was actually incorrect. If I had to bet, I would bet on the middle possibility: metrics are built honestly but selectively promoted in accordance with political agendas in a manner that I would be comfortable to characterize as "rigged."
In any case, assigning blame is one thing and designing portfolios robust to this kind of mishap is another. Fortunately, the difficult parts of assigning blame are completely irrelevant to portfolio design. No matter who was responsible, the correct response is to avoid metrics that are easy to misunderstand (or rig!). Which brings us right back to favoring "assets hedge inflation" over "TIPS hedge inflation."
The idea that the government inflation indexes are rigged is conspiracy language. They are talking as if people from conservative think tanks and corporate boards are having the government fix inflation indexes to their way of thinking, or even retroactively setting inflation indexes to their way of thinking ( https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boskin_Commission ).
I'd wager that there are more people that cannot afford the costs of servicing their mortgages doubling, than those that can.
It may not result in backruptcy, but it may result in them defaulting on their mortgages and literally losing the roof over their heads.
2% is too high? Really? What do you think it ought to be, allowing for a variance of 1-2% around the target?
https://www.statista.com/statistics/244983/projected-inflati...
2. EO 6102 made sense with the gold standard. It wasn't just an "FU" to gold hoarders, but a way to raise revenue to counter the depression. It's not clear to me that it would make sense for such a confiscation of crypto, especially if the legislature were to try option #1.
Except that, many rich investors and large corporations are putting money into crypto as we speak. Some of those large investors may include people who work in the government and at central banks. I tend to think that, these people will have a conflict of interest there. It might be in their own best personal interest to not ban crypto, and to leave that door open. In other words, it might soon be too late to ban crypto. The ball already started rolling down the hill.
Great analysis. Give it another few years: then when most of the S&P companies will hold crypto, along with your richest supporters and voters, trying to ban it will become political suicide.
Crypto would have to rise massively in value for that to happen. That's one of the bull cases for crypto.
No, crypto would rise massively if that were to happen.
Assets, stocks, real estate, all of the things that inflate with inflation. Crypto gets a lot of undue attention as a way to escape inflation, but investors have been investing in assets to losing buying power long before crypto came along.
Hyperinflation can always come after the bubble bursts.