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Re:A 25-Year-Old Bet Comes Due: Has Tech Destroyed Society? by simonh on Tuesday February 02, 2021 @02:28AM (#25998220)
He wasn't defending destroying the frames though, he was commiserating with the plight of the workers. In modern developed countries we have social security benefits, health care and such, to varying degrees depending on the country, to try and make sure people don't starve like that.
Re:A 25-Year-Old Bet Comes Due: Has Tech Destroyed Society? by fabianhjr on Tuesday February 02, 2021 @02:36AM (#25998254)
> He wasn't defending destroying the frames though

Agreed

> In modern developed countries we have social security benefits, health care and such, to varying degrees depending on the country, to try and make sure people don't starve like that.

And the country with the highest GDP lacks anything other than the bare minimum social security and the article is very-USA centric. (Both China and Europe have a more stable society compared to the USA so not quite sure how the bet of this thread would have gone if evaluated over either Europe or China)

Re:A 25-Year-Old Bet Comes Due: Has Tech Destroyed Society? by wutbrodo on Tuesday February 02, 2021 @03:52AM (#25998683)
> the country with the highest GDP lacks anything other than the bare minimum social security and the article is very-USA centric.

As with many similar topics, the US actually spends a much higher amount on social welfare than people realize, more than most developed countries. As always, it just does so uniquely inefficiently, for reasons that are complicated and possibly related to our sclerotic politics.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2015/04/09/how-t...

Re:A 25-Year-Old Bet Comes Due: Has Tech Destroyed Society? by tialaramex on Tuesday February 02, 2021 @07:26AM (#26000163)
> more than most developed countries

Basically this article is about someone's exercise to persuade themselves a lie is true. Keep squinting, keep finding ways to tilt the numbers, until, like a word you've read over and over they become nonsense and then pronounce yourself satisfied that you've proved Up is Down and Black is White. Congratulations I guess, to Kirkegaard? A Wall Street firm sends an exec on a $10M tour of Europe for "wellness" and that's now welfare expenditure, but there's tax charged on the food an unemployed steel worker in Liverpool buys so his unemployment cheque doesn't really count as welfare after all.

I look forward to a study showing that the US has really good paid leave compared to the rest of the world, so long as you denominate it in dollars not hours so that a marketing exec's six months "gardening leave" to prevent them stealing accounts outweighs Amazon warehouses with zero paid holiday...

Re:A 25-Year-Old Bet Comes Due: Has Tech Destroyed Society? by wutbrodo on Tuesday February 02, 2021 @03:00PM (#26005805)
> A Wall Street firm sends an exec on a $10M tour of Europe for "wellness" and that's now welfare expenditure, but there's tax charged on the food an unemployed steel worker in Liverpool buys so his unemployment cheque doesn't really count as welfare after all.

Does this comment have a point, beyond lurid and ill-thought-out analogies? Notice that even your contrived example isn't self-consistent: the only way the steelworker's unemployment check "wouldn't count" is if 100% of it was taxed away in the course of spending it.

Even your fevered conspiracy theory doesn't make any sense! What motivation do you imagine the paper author has? The paper[1] spends a substantial amount of time focusing on poor US outcomes, and its point is that current US policy isn't actually saving us any money relative to the rest of the OECD, so our outcomes aren't even trading off against net economic benefit (at least first-order). Suboptimal distribution of our social spending (as in your ridiculous examples) falls squarely into this category, and as such is a potential target for the paper's criticism.

[1] https://www.piie.com/publications/pb/pb15-4.pdf

Re:A 25-Year-Old Bet Comes Due: Has Tech Destroyed Society? by tialaramex on Tuesday February 02, 2021 @07:57PM (#26009299)
I'm not really imagining any "motivation" beyond the intellectual exercise of proving America spends lots of money on things it actually doesn't spend money on, by squinting until the whole world is blurry.

Economists would like everything to be dollars, because that means you can plug numbers into a spreadsheet and get answers that work. Centuries of this not working haven't dissuaded them and I don't expect my rant to change that.

People who actually think we should care about population welfare do not try to squint at the dollar figures like this paper, you'll see them looking at policies qualitatively rather than quantitatively, and this way you don't need to draw a dozen charts to come to the apparently startling revelation that the US is a wealthy country in which money is being stolen from the poor to be wasted by the rich and this is a bad idea.

Sometimes this sort of work will be excused on the rationale that it will guide political decision making. This is an error perhaps everywhere and certainly in the US. A Republican is not going to read this paper and say "Aha! My policies were mistaken, I can actually have better impact by reducing tax breaks on the wealthy and directing the increased income to the poorest". They're going to glance at it, conclude it does not support the policies they wish to enact and so it's irrelevant.

Re:A 25-Year-Old Bet Comes Due: Has Tech Destroyed Society? by OJFord on Tuesday February 02, 2021 @04:06AM (#25998779)
It would be oddly specific, IMO, to claim that a country doesn't spend enough on (for example) social security. What people actually talk about is outcomes.

Interesting that a lot is spent on it, but not really much of a counterpoint since, as you say, it's done so 'uniquely inefficiently' that the outcome remains less.

Re:A 25-Year-Old Bet Comes Due: Has Tech Destroyed Society? by wutbrodo on Tuesday February 02, 2021 @02:46PM (#26005629)
> What people actually talk about is outcomes.

This is not my experience at all. I feel like the vast majority of conversation on the topic I've read is about differential _political will_ for social welfare and other redistribution, usually due to perceived cultural failings.

Eg, "the US doesn't want to take care of its most vulnerable because of muh freedom"

The notion that the US has lots of _political will_ for infra, redistribution, homeless care, etc but simply has an incompetent government is anathema to polite-company discourse, usually leading to handwavy rationalizations about how "starving the beast" has caused the government to be incompetent.

Re:A 25-Year-Old Bet Comes Due: Has Tech Destroyed Society? by kebman on Tuesday February 02, 2021 @05:09AM (#25999158)
I don't want to be a stickler, but Europe isn't a country. It is simply inaccurate to claim that "Europe have a more stable society compared to the USA." There are countries within Europe that has extreme wealth, and extreme poverty, while most countries in Europe are still far better developed than, say, most countries in Africa. With that said, the best developed countries in Europe do seem to have a better social security system than the USA, but at a high cost.
Re:A 25-Year-Old Bet Comes Due: Has Tech Destroyed Society? by Joker_vD on Tuesday February 02, 2021 @08:11AM (#26000539)
Why is it inaccurate to claim that? Sure, Europe is not one country but is made out of several countries, but so what? The USA is comprised out of states, some of them poorer than other; heck, even inside a single country there are richer and poorer regions/counties/lands/whatever, with money/labour flows and dynamics very similar to the international ones.
Re:A 25-Year-Old Bet Comes Due: Has Tech Destroyed Society? by bumby on Tuesday February 02, 2021 @09:55AM (#26001615)
>money/labour flows and dynamics very similar to the international ones

It’s quite different in my experience. Workers can be employed in another state with almost no friction (with the possibility of a income tax declaration at hire) but it’s a lot more complicated to work internationally.

Re:A 25-Year-Old Bet Comes Due: Has Tech Destroyed Society? by baak6 on Tuesday February 02, 2021 @04:13AM (#25998819)
China does not have a stable society. You never hear about most of the social issues that happen inside China.

A country committing genocide against its own citizens is not a stable society.

Re:A 25-Year-Old Bet Comes Due: Has Tech Destroyed Society? by simonh on Tuesday February 02, 2021 @02:51AM (#25998324)
Well I'm a Brit, but I did write that with an eye to the fact that most people here are yank... er, I mean my esteemed colonial colleagues. Yes you have fewer and more threadbare social safety nets that in Europe, but a heck of a lot more than in China.
Re:A 25-Year-Old Bet Comes Due: Has Tech Destroyed Society? by fabianhjr on Tuesday February 02, 2021 @02:53AM (#25998338)
I am from Latin America though and have a 0.025 USD / year tuition on my current math undergrad education, public healthcare, and a more robust social security net overall.
Re:A 25-Year-Old Bet Comes Due: Has Tech Destroyed Society? by refurb on Tuesday February 02, 2021 @07:03AM (#25999980)
Is the education, healthcare and social security you’re getting at the same level you’d get in the US?

I live outside the US and I can assure you the universal healthcare here doesn’t not provide the same level of care that even Medicaid does in the US. Sure if I had a routine broken arm there would be little difference, but if I had a serious cancer I’d be dead here.

Re:A 25-Year-Old Bet Comes Due: Has Tech Destroyed Society? by simonh on Tuesday February 02, 2021 @03:03AM (#25998391)
Sure. I'm a capitalist and free marketeer, but support social security systems and even public health care. I think the US goes too far, particularly it's health care system is appalling, but I have to admit it's thin employment protections do make it a lot more flexible and responsive to economic conditions. Just look at how rapidly it recovered from the 2008 crisis compared to Europe, it was a whole year ahead of us on the curve by the early 2010s including in terms of jobs growth. There are pros and cons both ways.
Re:A 25-Year-Old Bet Comes Due: Has Tech Destroyed Society? by vagrantJin on Tuesday February 02, 2021 @03:45AM (#25998642)
> Just look at how rapidly it recovered from the 2008 crisis compared to Europe

I'm not EU or US, but the US printed a heck of a lot of magic monopoly money. And yet the dollar remained as strong as it ever was. Yes, some smartie pants will no doubt explain this away as "quantitative easing" which is the magnum opus of magic monopoly money.

EU central bank doesn't seem to like that very much being so risk averse. So we can say the EU is keeping financial wizardry in check because if left to the US, no one would know what is going on.

The EU might just save us all.

Re:A 25-Year-Old Bet Comes Due: Has Tech Destroyed Society? by simonh on Tuesday February 02, 2021 @05:09AM (#25999154)
So the US bailed out the banks with a Trillion dollars, got it all back with a profit, used massive QE to successfully cushion their economy, without inflation. Which is bad.

Meanwhile the EU which at the time was crippled over Greece, lagged far behind in the recovery and still haven't properly addressed deep flaws in the Euro are our saviours?

Re:A 25-Year-Old Bet Comes Due: Has Tech Destroyed Society? by fakedang on Tuesday February 02, 2021 @06:38AM (#25999820)
If you can forget the divide in the wealth gap in the US, sure the US has been very successful at recovering from '08.
Re:A 25-Year-Old Bet Comes Due: Has Tech Destroyed Society? by hummusman on Tuesday February 02, 2021 @03:39AM (#25998595)
Not sure this is particularly true, it took the US 6 years from 2008 to recover all the jobs lost in the recession [0]. I would assume the bulk of those were low-skilled, manufacturing roles, the ones ever more at risk of being rendered obsolete by automation.

[0] https://www.cbpp.org/great-recessions-jobs-deficit-much-deep...

Re:A 25-Year-Old Bet Comes Due: Has Tech Destroyed Society? by me_me_me on Tuesday February 02, 2021 @05:27AM (#25999288)
Well given that the biggest looser of 2008 crash were the poorest slice of society that almost could afford a house.

They were tricked into loans they couldn't afford. And with all blue-collar jobs being exported at alarming rate to Asia, i would say that the recovery after that recession doesn't ring true to me.

Sure economy and gdp are higher up, but its not because poor recovered. They were left behind.

Trump won presidency mainly because he turned to those people and promised them the good old time, where the town had its steelworks and everyone had quite life.

Re:A 25-Year-Old Bet Comes Due: Has Tech Destroyed Society? by BoardsOfCanada on Tuesday February 02, 2021 @03:31AM (#25998549)
Yes and we need to avoid the nirvana fallacy. I live in a country with public health care and every so ofter people are sent home to die from scheduled surgery because there aren't doctors or other staff available. My dad had 99% clogged heart arteries before he got treatment. My brother works in the US and prefer their system, but then he's got a good job - still a data point for the discussion.
Re:A 25-Year-Old Bet Comes Due: Has Tech Destroyed Society? by XorNot on Tuesday February 02, 2021 @04:58AM (#25999081)
So, how rich is your dad?

Because unless it was "can drop quarter of a million dollars or more" rich, then no, in the US he would've just been sent home to die.

The existence of a public healthcare system running at capacity is not evidence the US system "doesn't have this problem". Being denied treatment because you can't afford it is objectively worse then being denied treatment because the system is busy.

One problem is fixable.

EDIT: And also, unless your brother has had a major health event, then the reality is he has no idea whether his insurance is any good.

Re:A 25-Year-Old Bet Comes Due: Has Tech Destroyed Society? by dfgdghdf on Tuesday February 02, 2021 @06:33AM (#25999786)
Perhaps there's another way to put this. In an ineffective public healthcare system, people are denied treatment because the public body has determined it is not worth the cost. In an ineffective private healthcare system, people are denied treatment because they cannot afford to pay.

> Being denied treatment because you can't afford it is objectively worse then being denied treatment because the system is busy.

Is it? I am fortunate enough to not be in this position, but I'm not sure how much I would care about the reasons why if I were.

Re:A 25-Year-Old Bet Comes Due: Has Tech Destroyed Society? by XorNot on Tuesday February 02, 2021 @07:24AM (#26000142)
And it will matter just as little if you can't afford to pay. The problem is, you seem to think you'd be able to - but that is statistically improbable. The cost of heart bypass surgery in the US (literally the highest in the world) as of 2019 was USD$123,000 - https://www.statista.com/statistics/189966/cost-of-a-heart-b....

That's not including the costs of follow up treatment, the increased cost of your insurance after an event which changes your risk category, or the byzantine system by which your job will be gently encouraged to let go of a "significant risk factor" because it will reduce the cost of them providing health insurance.

And in reality - people in socialized healthcare systems aren't denied life saving treatment. The availability of treatment is a priority list for "elective" surgery - that is, surgery not immediately necessary to save one's life. And this also does not affect the availability of private care - in Australia you always have the option to pay for private treatment, but controversy over waiting times exists precisely because the vast majority cannot afford to pay. And our costs are cheaper then US to start with if you do.

Hence the original question of how rich the OP's father was: because the reality is, if he wanted surgery right away he most likely could have got it. That he didn't is telling - because he actually couldn't afford it. Couldn't afford to fly to the US and have it done either. The US would have "denied" them treatment just as assuredly. And they did eventually get it where they were.

Re:A 25-Year-Old Bet Comes Due: Has Tech Destroyed Society? by dfgdghdf on Tuesday February 02, 2021 @08:03AM (#26000477)
I want to be clear that I do not think the US system is a good one.

However, we should not be blind to limitations of a UK style system. There are also in-between alternatives, such as in Germany or to a lesser extent Japan.

Re:A 25-Year-Old Bet Comes Due: Has Tech Destroyed Society? by BoardsOfCanada on Tuesday February 02, 2021 @05:17AM (#25999222)
Well my point was to not compare with rainbows and unicorns but how it works in the real world. Also I'm not saying the US has a better system.

But just to entertain this discussion (big mistake), the problem is that you can't pay for surgery even if you're rich, which means that useful price signals for how to allocate resources are missing. You'll perhaps say: "Well it shouldn't be like that". I agree but there is a reason it ended up like this.

My brother doesn't need a serious health event to know (for a reasonable definition of "know") because he has a brain and people to talk to with direct and indirect experience of the system.

Re:A 25-Year-Old Bet Comes Due: Has Tech Destroyed Society? by simonh on Tuesday February 02, 2021 @10:25AM (#26002008)
>the problem is that you can't pay for surgery even if you're rich, ...

Yes you absolutely can, here in the UK I've had private health insurance from my employers for the last 23 years of my career. I'm not aware of any country that outlaws paying for private treatment.

Re:A 25-Year-Old Bet Comes Due: Has Tech Destroyed Society? by s1artibartfast on Tuesday February 02, 2021 @10:50AM (#26002378)
This is the case for some provinces in Canada, and is used as a healthcare boogie man in the USA. At the same time, US politicians for a single payer refuse to state whether private supplemental insurance would be allowed. This mixes up debate between universal coverage and eliminating private insurance entirely.

https://www.vox.com/health-care/2019/2/12/18215430/single-pa...

Re:A 25-Year-Old Bet Comes Due: Has Tech Destroyed Society? by bumby on Tuesday February 02, 2021 @09:59AM (#26001669)
>Because unless it was "can drop quarter of a million dollars or more" rich, then no, in the US he would've just been sent home to die.

Not trying to be argumentative, but what is this based on? I’ve known people who received major heart surgeries without insurance and certainly didn’t have that kind of money.

Re:A 25-Year-Old Bet Comes Due: Has Tech Destroyed Society? by Ygg2 on Tuesday February 02, 2021 @07:47AM (#26000352)
> One problem is fixable.

Both are fixable. Given enough money.

But if not fixed the results will be the same.

Re:A 25-Year-Old Bet Comes Due: Has Tech Destroyed Society? by olau on Tuesday February 02, 2021 @05:51AM (#25999461)
How do you know that was because of their job market?

As far as I'm aware, that was because they printed tons of money. Money was printed in the EU too, but stopped much sooner - far too soon. As if people forgot about Keynes.

And actually I think you have some of this backwards. If you have a good social security net, you don't have to protect workers as much.

Likewise, health care is an investment in human capital. When people are ill, they can't produce.

Re:A 25-Year-Old Bet Comes Due: Has Tech Destroyed Society? by TheOtherHobbes on Tuesday February 02, 2021 @10:04AM (#26001717)
There are very few countries with good social security nets and strong public healthcare and very low worker protections.

Conversely low worker protections correlate strongly with the absence of the above.

Why do you think that is?

Re:A 25-Year-Old Bet Comes Due: Has Tech Destroyed Society? by disgruntledphd2 on Tuesday February 02, 2021 @06:45AM (#25999863)
Well the British recovery was almost certainly slowed by the introduction of austerity following the return of the Conservatives to power.

The European (i.e Eurozone/EU) recovery was knocked back by the raising of interest rates by the ECB in 2011.

And finally, the US did recover better because they put a lot more proportionally into stimulus (even though it wasn't enough, as later events showed).

I'm not sure that you can suggest that the flexible labour market was a cause of that (and indeed, one would have expected the UK to recover quicker than the rest of Europe then, as they have more flexible labour laws).

Re:A 25-Year-Old Bet Comes Due: Has Tech Destroyed Society? by simonh on Tuesday February 02, 2021 @08:27AM (#26000685)
Nowhere near as flexible as the US though. The ability to hire and fire quickly without high costs has helped the USA recover from crises many times in the past as well. Employers in countries with high protections for workers are often reluctant to hire because it costs so much to slim down the work force once you employ them. It's not like the aftermath of 2008 was the first time this has ever been tested.

To be clear I'm not saying their system is superior, I think it goes too far. Poverty and what I consider labour exploitation are much more common over there. Also I think it's pretty clear now that significant increases in minimum wages don't seem to significantly increase unemployment, for example, but on severance pay particularly it's pretty clear this is a tradeoff.

Re:A 25-Year-Old Bet Comes Due: Has Tech Destroyed Society? by TheOtherHobbes on Tuesday February 02, 2021 @10:09AM (#26001789)
The US did not "recover" from 2008. It retooled its economy even further towards precarious hiring, with predictably disastrous political consequences.

There are proven links between economic insecurity and the rise of political extremism, and it's manifestly incorrect to suggest that corporate economics operates in a moral and political vacuum with no political consequences.

http://centaur.reading.ac.uk/74766/1/EPS_2018_accepted%20ver...

Re:A 25-Year-Old Bet Comes Due: Has Tech Destroyed Society? by dfgdghdf on Tuesday February 02, 2021 @06:30AM (#25999764)
The US system is truly the worst of a both worlds: a highly centralized, bureaucratic system, with a handful of winner capturing huge margins on the top. The level of regulation and corporatism means that free-market people should be as dissatisfied as those on the left.
Re:A 25-Year-Old Bet Comes Due: Has Tech Destroyed Society? by tonyedgecombe on Tuesday February 02, 2021 @04:42AM (#25999001)
Recovered from the 2008 crisis that it caused. Those sub-prime mortgages were all in the US.
Re:A 25-Year-Old Bet Comes Due: Has Tech Destroyed Society? by tomatotomato37 on Tuesday February 02, 2021 @11:20AM (#26002843)
Belarus has a more stable society than the US?
Re:A 25-Year-Old Bet Comes Due: Has Tech Destroyed Society? by CryptoPunk on Tuesday February 02, 2021 @05:30AM (#25999309)
You need to look at per capita GDP, not GDP.

In any case, the US has very high levels of per capita social welfare spending.