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Re:Ask HN: How to increase SWE salaries in Europe? by betaby on Wednesday January 13, 2021 @07:20PM (#25769985)
I wouldn't call Canadian (or Fr or Se) wealth inequality 'low'. 'Why I can't afford a house', again is more a problem in Fr/De/Se than in US, see https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_home_owne...
Re:Ask HN: How to increase SWE salaries in Europe? by arcticbull on Wednesday January 13, 2021 @07:30PM (#25770079)
Inequality in Canada is substantially lower than in America (and is on par with Australia, and between Fr and Se). This is evidenced in their Gini coefficients. [1]

- Gini for SE is 0.25

- Gini for FR is 0.31

- Gini for CA is 0.33

- Gini for US is 0.48

- Gini for ZA is 0.65

I've also included South Africa for comparison, one of the least equal societies on earth. A photo of what a 0.65 Gini country looks like is here (https://blog.prif.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/SA_Drone_Pi...)

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gini_coefficient

Re:Ask HN: How to increase SWE salaries in Europe? by betaby on Wednesday January 13, 2021 @07:47PM (#25770228)
From your link, GINI of Canada and Tajikistan is the same or Finland and Azerbaijan. Totalitarian states like Belarus or Kazakhstan have one of the lowest GINIs in the world, now I question gini usefulness even more.
Re:Ask HN: How to increase SWE salaries in Europe? by arcticbull on Wednesday January 13, 2021 @07:49PM (#25770243)
I assumed you realized we were constraining ourselves to places with a High or Very High HDI.

If nobody has any money at all, would you not say inequality is low? If everyone in Tajikistan has $5 except the president, Emomali Rahmon, is inequality not low?

I suspect you are looking for a pairing of HDI and Gini, which factors in both the development (and hence the standard of living) and the inequality.

Sweden: (Gini: 0.25, HDI: 0.933), France: (Gini: 0.31, HDI: 0.901), Canada: (Gini: 0.33, HDI: 0.926), USA: (Gini: 0.48, HDI: 0.924), South Africa: (Gini: 0.65, HDI: 0.709).

Now, Tajikistan has an HDI of 0.66 ("medium"), and Azerbaijan 0.756 ("high").

Kazakhstan might surprise you, the HDI is 0.817 ("very high"). The standard of living there is actually good, in spite of what you may have seen on Borat - incidentally filmed in Romania. Almaty's been on my list of places to visit for a long time :) [1]

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Almaty

Re:Ask HN: How to increase SWE salaries in Europe? by passerby1 on Thursday January 14, 2021 @04:38AM (#25774199)
> Borat - incidentally filmed in Romania

Romania: Gini: 0.36, HDI: 0.828

HDI is close to Kazakhstan, actually

Re:Ask HN: How to increase SWE salaries in Europe? by dnautics on Wednesday January 13, 2021 @10:20PM (#25771457)
> If everyone in Tajikistan has $5 except the president

That distribution will yield a very high gini coefficient of very close to 1.

Re:Ask HN: How to increase SWE salaries in Europe? by tobinfricke on Wednesday January 13, 2021 @10:46PM (#25771654)
No, it yields a Gini coefficient very close to zero.

The Gini coefficient is defined as 1/2 the mean absolute difference considering all pairs of households:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gini_coefficient

A group of people where everyone has the same income as a Gini coefficient of exactly zero. Adding a single outlier will increase it a little. A group of 1001 with 1000 people earning $1 and one person earning $100 has a Gini coefficient of 0.09.

Re:Ask HN: How to increase SWE salaries in Europe? by thomasahle on Thursday January 14, 2021 @02:46AM (#25773396)
>> If everyone in Tajikistan has $5 except the president

> That distribution will yield a very high gini coefficient of very close to 1.

It yields (n-1)|5-p|/(2n(5(n-1)+p)) which is about p/(5n+p).

So it depends on whether the president (p) has $10 or $n^2.

Re:Ask HN: How to increase SWE salaries in Europe? by dnautics on Friday January 15, 2021 @12:02AM (#25787194)
indeed. If everyone in tajikistan has $5 except the president, who has $1, the gini coefficient will be different.
Re:Ask HN: How to increase SWE salaries in Europe? by ClumsyPilot on Wednesday January 13, 2021 @08:12PM (#25770435)
Trives of neanderthals were very equal too.

Obviously you have to compare apples to apples

Re:Ask HN: How to increase SWE salaries in Europe? by etothepii on Wednesday January 13, 2021 @08:36PM (#25770652)
Read "Sapiens" 35 hour working week as a hunter gather is far preferable to the 60 + home chores of the homo softwaricus.
Re:Ask HN: How to increase SWE salaries in Europe? by taneq on Wednesday January 13, 2021 @11:45PM (#25772139)
I'm always sceptical when I see people quoting 50-60+ hours a week as a "normal" workload. I don't doubt that many people spend that much time in the office but I can't believe they're actually productive for that many hours - I know for myself (as, I think, a reasonably effective developer) I can't sustain much more than 40 productive hours a week for long.
Re:Ask HN: How to increase SWE salaries in Europe? by sokoloff on Wednesday January 13, 2021 @09:15PM (#25770979)
I would way rather program 60 hours a week than live as the hunter-gatherers did.
Re:Ask HN: How to increase SWE salaries in Europe? by ClumsyPilot on Wednesday January 13, 2021 @09:32PM (#25771092)
I am not sure, in there own world some tribes might have been far happier than 95% of society is today
Re:Ask HN: How to increase SWE salaries in Europe? by imtringued on Thursday January 14, 2021 @08:01AM (#25775811)
I don't think I am able to make this judgement but I can talk about what happened after hunter gatherer tribes disappeared.

If you are a hunter gatherer you just need a good hunt every now and then. There is no pressure to perform work all day if you get enough food.

This is different if you are a farmer. Farming is highly labor intensive. There is so much work to do that you are never done. You will have to repeat the same motions every single day. Swing the same tools the exact same way. People are tied to their land and it is possible to conquer the land violently. You are dependent on a military force which implies that a local ruler must collect taxes to pay the soldiers. That ruler also has power over you which can easily be abused.

Democracy is definitively fairer than having an authoritarian ruler but it can be subject to tyranny of the majority or the minority and still cause failure in leadership.

Re:Ask HN: How to increase SWE salaries in Europe? by dantheman on Wednesday January 13, 2021 @10:04PM (#25771327)
That is until they die from a simple infection.
Re:Ask HN: How to increase SWE salaries in Europe? by taneq on Wednesday January 13, 2021 @11:46PM (#25772152)
Or starvation, or being eaten by a grue. People who think being a hunter-gatherer sounds great should go try it, there's nothing stopping them from doing so. They don't because actually, living in civilization with abundant cheap food, clean running hot and cold water, indoor plumbing, heating, air conditioning, and entertainment is great.
Re:Ask HN: How to increase SWE salaries in Europe? by killtimeatwork on Thursday January 14, 2021 @04:03AM (#25773927)
This argument is a fallacy. There's plenty of stuff stopping me from being a successful hunter-gatherer:

1. HGs are very skilled, and they build their skills throughout their lives - crucially, starting with childhood and adolescence. I, an adult brought up in a Western civilization, would be totally clueless in a rain forest the same way that those HGs would be totally clueless in our world.

2. HGs live in groups. I would need to find a group of HGs that would accept me, which is highly unlikely because of the language and culture barrier, plus my lack of skills - why would they want to have anything to do with an useless guy in the first place? My CV full of accomplishments does not impress them at all.

Unfortunately, just like transplanting an adult HG into our society most likely ends in them becoming a homeless addict, most likely result for me heading for the jungle is fairly quick death.

Re:Ask HN: How to increase SWE salaries in Europe? by taneq on Thursday January 14, 2021 @05:07AM (#25774511)
I guess I should have said "there's nothing stopping them except lack of will to do the required work." Which I guess makes sense since the motivation generally seems to be a desire for a return to some noble-savage-in-Eden life of plenty and ease.
Re:Ask HN: How to increase SWE salaries in Europe? by killtimeatwork on Thursday January 14, 2021 @06:21AM (#25775039)
How do you integrate with a HG community that doesn't care about you or, even worse, kills you and eats you? It's not only about "required work" but also about serious life-threatening risks involved. Whereas if you were born as a HG, those risks aren't there.
Re:Ask HN: How to increase SWE salaries in Europe? by dragonwriter on Wednesday January 13, 2021 @11:59PM (#25772258)
> People who think being a hunter-gatherer sounds great should go try it, there's nothing stopping them from doing so.

Well, I mean, except property rights and the people that will defend them in most of the places in the planet suitable for human habitation.

Re:Ask HN: How to increase SWE salaries in Europe? by fogihujy on Thursday January 14, 2021 @02:05AM (#25773116)
The Missus and I tried to plan going back to nature as a quarantine thought experiment. The conclusion was that it's simply not possible in most of Europe unless one manages to find a Sami spouse, and even then, most Sami seem to live fairly modern lives. As a Nordic citizen the Greenland option is there as well, but the situation is similar to the Sami one.

And the above presumes the existing population would accept you, and it's quite likely they won't.

Deciding to live off the land without special privileges enjoyed by native populations is simply not possible; regular financial transactions between you and society is a requirement, and it's pretty much impossible to raise children without access to modernities and without having the authorities go after you for child abuse.

Re:Ask HN: How to increase SWE salaries in Europe? by riffraff on Thursday January 14, 2021 @03:18AM (#25773619)
you can make a simpler experiment: try going a week with only food you can forage in nearby forests and fields, plus some meat you'd buy (you're not expected to be able to hunt).

I love eating wild weeds and berries, but it takes _a lot_ of time to get enough to fill yourself, and it's not a case that people have only eaten stuff like acorns only in times of famine.

This fact by itself made me question a lot of what's in "Sapiens".

Re:Ask HN: How to increase SWE salaries in Europe? by ClumsyPilot on Thursday January 14, 2021 @07:14AM (#25775478)
a tropical island wull give results very different to like a siberean forest.

Also from what i gather most meat was aquired from trapping, rather than hunting

Re:Ask HN: How to increase SWE salaries in Europe? by winston_smith on Thursday January 14, 2021 @12:23AM (#25772452)
Plenty of hunter gatherer tribes still around for the people crazy enough to want to join them
Re:Ask HN: How to increase SWE salaries in Europe? by lodovic on Thursday January 14, 2021 @03:13AM (#25773573)
It is not likely any of them will gladly accept new members.
Re:Ask HN: How to increase SWE salaries in Europe? by winston_smith on Thursday January 14, 2021 @03:31AM (#25773702)
Gaining acceptance by a tribe and finding ways to not die if you ever become disfavored seems like part of the whole hunter-gatherer package, don't you think?

They tend not to be very wealthy by modern standards. Maybe you could ingratiate yourself to them with them gifts of things that require modern manufacturing infrastructure.

Re:Ask HN: How to increase SWE salaries in Europe? by ClumsyPilot on Thursday January 14, 2021 @07:12AM (#25775458)
Your argument literally defeats itself.

You were born into the tribe, and stayed there your entire life. Also there were no laws on hunting, setting traps, etc.

[dead]
Re:Ask HN: How to increase SWE salaries in Europe? by dang on Friday January 15, 2021 @01:38AM (#25787747)
We've banned this account for using HN primarily (exclusively? I skimmed your history and didn't see a single exception) for political and ideological battle. It's not what this site is for, and it destroys what it is for, so we ban accounts that do it regardless of which side they're battling for.

You've also broken the site guidelines frequently with snark and attacks on other users. Not cool.

https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html

Re:Ask HN: How to increase SWE salaries in Europe? by geodel on Wednesday January 13, 2021 @10:30PM (#25771517)
Seems better than perennial back pain from sitting long hours and getting brain fried from implementing same logic of micro-service 1000th time for a 'challenging' project.
Re:Ask HN: How to increase SWE salaries in Europe? by winston_smith on Wednesday January 13, 2021 @10:43PM (#25771628)
Go try it and let us know how it works out
Re:Ask HN: How to increase SWE salaries in Europe? by oblio on Thursday January 14, 2021 @02:22AM (#25773223)
This virtue signalling about hunter gatherers is funny. It's not the first time I've seen these kinds of discussions :-)
Re:Ask HN: How to increase SWE salaries in Europe? by lovecg on Thursday January 14, 2021 @04:59AM (#25774433)
And don’t forget murder. So, so much murder: https://ourworldindata.org/ethnographic-and-archaeological-e...
Re:Ask HN: How to increase SWE salaries in Europe? by mc32 on Wednesday January 13, 2021 @09:31PM (#25771088)
Sprain an ankle and you’re out of food that week.

Break a leg, if you’re lucky, you’ll a burden for s month.

On the other hand, your teeth may be healthier than that of people who gulp sugary drinks.

Re:Ask HN: How to increase SWE salaries in Europe? by ivan_gammel on Thursday January 14, 2021 @02:01AM (#25773095)
I would not refer to Harari in any context as an author worth reading. „Sapiens“ is a popular book, but scientifically it’s at least questionable.
Re:Ask HN: How to increase SWE salaries in Europe? by lovecg on Thursday January 14, 2021 @05:05AM (#25774499)
I think you have to approach it with a certain mindset. I didn’t read it as a source of reliable history, but I definitely got a lot of value out of it. He has a way of presenting ideas from perspectives I haven’t considered before. In fact disagreeing with him and trying to find evidence against his often too simple narratives is a fun exercise on its own, and I learned a lot just from those tangents.
Re:Ask HN: How to increase SWE salaries in Europe? by throwaway45349 on Wednesday January 13, 2021 @08:30PM (#25770586)
In totalitarian states, everyone is equally poor.
Re:Ask HN: How to increase SWE salaries in Europe? by webmaven on Wednesday January 13, 2021 @10:15PM (#25771418)
> In totalitarian states, everyone is equally poor.

Not quite. In totalitarian states, typically everyone's income is fairly equal.

Wealth, however, is often another matter.

In the soviet Union, party apparatchiks often had very nice dachas to live in, fancy cars, exclusive shopping venues with imported goods, vacations abroad, etc. But these things weren't necessarily purchased with disposable income, per-se. At least not officially.

Re:Ask HN: How to increase SWE salaries in Europe? by mc32 on Wednesday January 13, 2021 @10:58PM (#25771777)
I would quibble with the "fancy cars" part. Only the nomenklatura got government owned fancy cars and other perks --that reverted to the state if they lost the position. So it was a kind of state wealth that you temporarily had custody over.
Re:Ask HN: How to increase SWE salaries in Europe? by webmaven on Tuesday January 19, 2021 @09:41PM (#25841992)
To some extent, many of the "fancy cars" and other perks of capitalistic wealth are also things that one has only temporary access to by virtue of one's position. Without the position and the attached income, these can revert to the bank or other creditor.
Re:Ask HN: How to increase SWE salaries in Europe? by ant6n on Thursday January 14, 2021 @04:01AM (#25773913)
After the wall came down and the GDR collapsed, East Germans were surprised how simple the life of the highest government functionaries was. They had a small gated community, with a level of luxury (except perhaps for extra labor) which is comparable to North American middle class: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Waldsiedlung
Re:Ask HN: How to increase SWE salaries in Europe? by majormajor on Wednesday January 13, 2021 @08:44PM (#25770721)
Are those wealth or income coefficients?

My impression has been that wealth inequality in many places in Europe is much higher than income inequality, as a factor of it being an older society.

The places in Europe I'd want to move to are really no cheaper to buy a house than the places I'd want to live in the US.

Re:Ask HN: How to increase SWE salaries in Europe? by arcticbull on Wednesday January 13, 2021 @08:46PM (#25770739)
I grabbed these from FRED and it looks like they use the income version, not the wealth version. [1]

[1] https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SIPOVGINICAN

Re:Ask HN: How to increase SWE salaries in Europe? by majormajor on Wednesday January 13, 2021 @09:03PM (#25770883)
Gotcha, thanks.

I pulled some city-level numbers and it seems like at least in some areas, European SWE are missing out compared to coastal US ones:

London 2018: 0.7 https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/nationalaccounts/uksectoracco...

SF 2012: 0.523 https://www.sfgate.com/bayarea/article/Income-inequality-on-... (probably this has gone up!)

Paris 2015: ~0.492 https://www.institutmontaigne.org/en/blog/data-inequalities-... (they just say "similar to brazil", which is 0.492

Its unfortunately harder to find a bunch of city-level data, I wasn't able to find any German cities on quick googling, so I'm definitely fulfilling stereotypes of "Americans who think of Europe as just a couple famous cities", but those capture at least a couple of major population centers that aren't so appealing if you're a dev compared to the US hotspots: they're still unequal, but suddenly you're not nearly as high on the totem pole.

Re:Ask HN: How to increase SWE salaries in Europe? by qwytw on Thursday January 14, 2021 @05:06AM (#25774508)
However you look at wealth inequality Sweden is actually the most unequal country in that list:

SE is 0.867 FR is 0.687 CA is 0.726 US is 0.852 ZA is 0.806

Re:Ask HN: How to increase SWE salaries in Europe? by gustavpaul on Thursday January 14, 2021 @03:27AM (#25773677)
That picture likely contrasts lower middle class and lower class - middle class and upper middle class houses in south africa would not be across the road from an informal settlement due to unbelievable levels of theft and violent crime in such areas.
Re:Ask HN: How to increase SWE salaries in Europe? by adrianN on Thursday January 14, 2021 @12:19AM (#25772423)
Home ownership is strongly influenced by culture. Germans are just happier to rent. Buying often doesn't make a lot of sense financially either. It's not much cheaper to buy than to rent and you lose a lot of flexibility. I could afford to buy a house, but I don't want to. That would just tie up a large fraction of my wealth into one fairly risky investment and make it much harder to move when my life changes.
Re:Ask HN: How to increase SWE salaries in Europe? by alexgmcm on Thursday January 14, 2021 @05:44AM (#25774818)
Germany also has among the lowest median household wealth in Europe[1] despite having a high median income[2].

This explains the high wealth inequality we observe[3], despite the low income inequality[4].

This could be caused by the low levels of home ownership given that home ownership (and the associated leverage) is a huge tool for wealth accumulation for the average person.

I know that people say you can make more from ETF's etc. than real estate, but I'm not sure if that applies so much to your primary residence given you will always need somewhere to live and a bank isn't going to lend you hundreds of thousands of euros to invest in ETF's, but they will for your primary residence.

The extra mobility you have while renting is an advantage but one that comes with a hefty price.

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_wealth_pe...

[2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Median_income#Median_equivalen...

[3] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_wealth_eq...

[4] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_income_eq...

Re:Ask HN: How to increase SWE salaries in Europe? by throwaway894345 on Thursday January 14, 2021 @12:48AM (#25772601)
What’s risky about the investment? I’m of the impression that real estate is one of the more stable investments, subprime mortgage scandals notwithstanding.
Re:Ask HN: How to increase SWE salaries in Europe? by fulafel on Thursday January 14, 2021 @01:21AM (#25772817)
What isn't? Volatile market value, risks of breakdowns and fires and previously undiscovered structural flaws, fires, natural distasters, etc. It's putting a lot of your eggs in one basket, which in investment terms is same as foregoing diversification, ie taking on a lot of risk for no corresponding increase in returns. Depending on jurisdiction, risk of unfair treatment in a divorce. High transaction costs when changing housing due to changing life circumstances. And to top it off you are binding the important service of having a roof over your head to the fate of this investment.
Re:Ask HN: How to increase SWE salaries in Europe? by throwaway894345 on Thursday January 14, 2021 @01:29AM (#25772878)
Home process in the US are historically very stable. I would think this is also true in Europe? As for diversification, your house shouldn’t be your only investment. As for fires and natural disasters, this is why insurance exists. Owning a home isn’t for everyone, but I don’t think there’s anything particularly risky about it as far as investments go.
Re:Ask HN: How to increase SWE salaries in Europe? by fulafel on Thursday January 14, 2021 @01:41AM (#25772960)
Are you looking at home prices as aggregate? It will naturally seem a lot more stable then since you are then looking at what you'd have if you had diversification! As for individual cases of housing, I think we've recently seen enough discussion of CA volatility to conclude that at least big cities have a lot of volatility in individual housing units.

(Of course this all depends on the alternative too: renting regulations vary widely over the world in how strong the position of the occupants is wrt rent increases and landlord initiated termination)

Re:Ask HN: How to increase SWE salaries in Europe? by throwaway894345 on Thursday January 14, 2021 @09:54AM (#25776976)
I’m not talking about California (which is anomalous in many respects), but I am talking about the general market in various municipalities as well as anecdata from various people about their property values increasing from year to year.
Re:Ask HN: How to increase SWE salaries in Europe? by adrianN on Thursday January 14, 2021 @02:39AM (#25773350)
Buying a home in a tolerable location costs at least 200k in my area and upkeep isn't free either. I can rent an apartment in a much better area for fifteen to twenty years for just the initial investment.

A house can easily lose its value or at least cause large expenses, e.g. if the cellar floods or develops mold problems. Or if the surrounding neighborhood becomes worse.

Selling houses has a large transaction cost.

I really don't see much benefits to owning over renting. I'd rather have 200k in a diversified portfolio that earns me 5k a year after taxes and has a much lower probability of losing 30% of its value while living in an apartment in a central location than own a house in a suburb that costs me a few thousand a year in upkeep and taxes. I'd likely need to buy a car too in that case, which is another few thousand a year.

Re:Ask HN: How to increase SWE salaries in Europe? by mytailorisrich on Thursday January 14, 2021 @05:09AM (#25774532)
> I'd rather have 200k in a diversified portfolio that earns me 5k a year

From a financial point of you a difference is that to do this you need to have 200k cash, while you can borrow most of the money to buy a 200k house.

There is a leveraging effect when investing in property.

Re:Ask HN: How to increase SWE salaries in Europe? by netrus on Thursday January 14, 2021 @04:03AM (#25773932)
I think the economic tradeoffs in buying a house are pretty country specific. For example, renters in Germany have very strong legal protection. It is very difficult for your landlord to kick you out, or raise the rent dramatically. I could certainly afford to buy the flat I live in, but I prefer to have the money invested in the stock market instead, and have someone to call (who also pays for) any problems. I also lived in rented apartments in France and UK, and it felt significantly different: Limited-term contracts, poor maintenance, (poorly) furnished - I would not want to live that way forever (of course, I choose these contracts because I only intended to stay for a limited time).
Re:Ask HN: How to increase SWE salaries in Europe? by burntoutfire on Thursday January 14, 2021 @04:41AM (#25774231)
Interestingly, in Poland, it's the renter who is responsible for taking care of all problems, except structural ones and perhaps stuff like mold. Everything else is on the renter, and he is expected to return the house in "no worse" condition on the lease's end - meaning, repairing all the white goods in the house if they break etc.
Re:Ask HN: How to increase SWE salaries in Europe? by llampx on Thursday January 14, 2021 @07:43AM (#25775682)
Germany takes care of that problem by not supplying a kitchen or any white goods at all when renting an apartment. Of course, exceptions apply and some landlords do offer an EBK (fitted kitchen) when renting.
Re:Ask HN: How to increase SWE salaries in Europe? by 5560675260 on Thursday January 14, 2021 @08:18AM (#25775942)
Shouldn't you also factor rent into your calculations? I don't know how high it is on 200k property, but I assume it's significantly higher than 5k/year. Owning a house is risky for the reasons you've mentioned, but might give you higher returns.
Re:Ask HN: How to increase SWE salaries in Europe? by throwaway894345 on Thursday January 14, 2021 @10:02AM (#25777077)
Like I said, owning isn’t for everyone (my point is only that it’s not an extraordinarily risky investment contrary to the OP’s claim). 5k a year isn’t rent in most places.
Re:Ask HN: How to increase SWE salaries in Europe? by jsdwarf on Thursday January 14, 2021 @03:10AM (#25773542)
You should also consider the liquidity risk when selling a house. The MSFT stock is traded thousands of times per day, so there is strong consensus on its price. A house like yours in a neighborhood like yours is maybe traded once per year, so there will be less consensus and you would have to wait longer for a suitable buyer or discount the price.
Re:Ask HN: How to increase SWE salaries in Europe? by collyw on Thursday January 14, 2021 @04:56AM (#25774402)
How volatile is the housing market in Germany? And there are solutions to the other problems - getting the house properly surveyed before buying, insurance for fires.
Re:Ask HN: How to increase SWE salaries in Europe? by llampx on Thursday January 14, 2021 @07:44AM (#25775698)
The long-term trend in Germany has been a movement from rural to urban areas, and immigration from outside of Germany to German cities. So if you had an apartment or house in a city you are sitting pretty, not so much if you had the same in a small town or village.
Re:Ask HN: How to increase SWE salaries in Europe? by mytailorisrich on Thursday January 14, 2021 @04:57AM (#25774415)
> What’s risky about the investment?

The German population is shrinking.

Real estate as a safe and stable investment in the long term relies on steady population growth to insure that demand will always be there for you to be able to sell at a good price.

Of course, if you buy in the most desirable locations you may be shielded from this because demand outstrips supply by a huge margin to begin with.

Re:Ask HN: How to increase SWE salaries in Europe? by gfxgirl on Thursday January 14, 2021 @03:38AM (#25773756)
Doesn't that really depend on where and culture? If you bought a house in Detroit in 1965 you aren't likely doing well today. If you bought in San Francisco in 2019 you're probably under today (though that may fix itself). If you bought in Japan almost anywhere you now have a used house which like a used car only goes down in value. If you're lucky the land goes up but condos/apartments you don't usually own the land and even then only in prime locations. Most locations land is likely losing value as the population declines. Land in Ginza (the most expensive land in Japan) only recently passed its late 1980s price per square meter.
Re:Ask HN: How to increase SWE salaries in Europe? by throwaway894345 on Thursday January 14, 2021 @10:04AM (#25777102)
Yes, there are extreme examples, just like there are extreme examples in the stock market.
Re:Ask HN: How to increase SWE salaries in Europe? by sershe on Thursday January 14, 2021 @12:32PM (#25779290)
You can diversify in the stock market (in fact for most people investing in funds it's the default), you cannot diversify in your housing investment.
Re:Ask HN: How to increase SWE salaries in Europe? by throwaway894345 on Thursday January 14, 2021 @04:44PM (#25783065)
The argument is that home ownership isn't a worse risk-adjusted investment than stocks. If you know how to reduce risk in the stock market without correspondingly reducing your returns, do share.
Re:Ask HN: How to increase SWE salaries in Europe? by sershe on Friday January 15, 2021 @04:06AM (#25788609)
I believe that is also not true. Case Shiller is up barely ~x3 since 1990 including the recent large bump [1]; SP500 appears to be ~x12 since 1990. Inflation-adjusted, according to Wikipedia, Case Shiller National index is up ~25% since 2000.

Also, extreme risks is not what most people aim for in investing when most of their net worth is involved; the utility of money is not linear.

[1] https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CSUSHPINSA

Re:Ask HN: How to increase SWE salaries in Europe? by dragonwriter on Thursday January 14, 2021 @04:48PM (#25783125)
> If you know how to reduce risk in the stock market without correspondingly reducing your returns, do share.

If you want to do it without reducing your expected returns you diversify to products with similar expected returns and, to the extent practical, mutually independent risks.

Re:Ask HN: How to increase SWE salaries in Europe? by throwaway894345 on Thursday January 14, 2021 @06:00PM (#25784161)
I don't see how this can be true. If you're splitting your investment, your downsides are smaller but your upsides are also smaller, and presumably by the same amount.
Re:Ask HN: How to increase SWE salaries in Europe? by dragonwriter on Thursday January 14, 2021 @06:08PM (#25784272)
> I don’t see how this can be true.

How could it not?

> If you’re splitting your investment, your downsides are smaller but your upsides are also smaller, and presumably by the same amount.

Yes, and your expected return remains the same. Reducing variability isn’t “reducing returns”, because, as you note, what you lose from reducing the 50+nth percentile returns is made up for by increasing the 50-nth percentile returns.

Re:Ask HN: How to increase SWE salaries in Europe? by eloisant on Thursday January 14, 2021 @03:50AM (#25773838)
Buying your home isn't an investment, it's only an investment if you can sell it at any time.

Risks of buying your home include: - Not being able to move if you can't sell (because the market isn't right) - Being stuck in a house where you pay a high mortgage while you could rent for much less after a crash (what happened in Spain after 2008). Note than in US you can give up your house and your mortgage goes away, but that doesn't work this way in Europe. The bank sells your house and if it doesn't cover the mortgage you still owe the rest

Also if you sell too early after buying, you're losing money because you pay more in transaction fees that you would have in rent (unless there is a big spike in prices).

Anyway, for a long time real estate have been steadily appreciating and people (especially boomers) got used to it, to the point that all their reasoning about real estate is that it's appreciating faster than inflation. It was true for a long period but that's no longer the case.

Re:Ask HN: How to increase SWE salaries in Europe? by davidhbolton on Thursday January 14, 2021 @04:31AM (#25774139)
If you live in a country with mass migration then both house prices and rental prices increase almost constantly. I lived in London from 1996-2015. I bought a house in 2000, it tripled in value by 2015 and I sold up and moved out of London. Its kind of mad.
Re:Ask HN: How to increase SWE salaries in Europe? by cookieswumchorr on Thursday January 14, 2021 @03:33AM (#25773717)
divorce, for example, is one major risk
Re:Ask HN: How to increase SWE salaries in Europe? by throwaway894345 on Thursday January 14, 2021 @10:05AM (#25777111)
I don’t think this is any different than with stock market wealth.
Re:Ask HN: How to increase SWE salaries in Europe? by cookieswumchorr on Friday January 15, 2021 @03:18AM (#25788296)
you can divide stock between 2 parties, maybe fair, maybe unfair, but that's it. A house will be up for sale when neither can afford it on their own, and a lot of money gets lost just in the process
Re:Ask HN: How to increase SWE salaries in Europe? by throwaway894345 on Friday January 15, 2021 @09:11AM (#25791100)
Ah, fair point.
Re:Ask HN: How to increase SWE salaries in Europe? by hogFeast on Wednesday January 13, 2021 @07:40PM (#25770157)
I don't know about the other countries you have mentioned but German residential real estate has very high levels of institutional investment and the legacy of rent control (famously, Berlin...although that changed a few years ago).

So you have very high wealth inequality, average German net financial wealth is equal to Greece and Germany has a significant number of billionaires, but you also have a system that fundamentally cannot be compared with the US. It just optimises for different things.

That being said, whilst recognising those differences, lower wealth inequality is not the result of most of these systems. Income inequality is generally lower but the cost of this is usually: low competition, high structural unemployment, weak unions, low levels of business creation...it isn't free. It is readly apparent from the EU that whilst the US has high inequality, it also has a far more dynamic economy that results in more people actually becoming wealthy (to take Germany as an example, most billionaires come from families that got rich in the 30s and inherited...the level of downward mobility is very high in the US) and higher levels of innovation.

Re:Ask HN: How to increase SWE salaries in Europe? by coliveira on Wednesday January 13, 2021 @07:53PM (#25770277)
> more dynamic economy that results in more people actually becoming wealthy

This is exactly the other side of inequality: if there is a big gap, someone must be taking advantage of this gap. The problem is that most people are losers in this competition.

Re:Ask HN: How to increase SWE salaries in Europe? by oblio on Thursday January 14, 2021 @02:25AM (#25773250)
Most statistics contradict you, despite the popular impression. The US has lower social mobility than most European countries.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_Social_Mobility_Index

Re:Ask HN: How to increase SWE salaries in Europe? by collyw on Thursday January 14, 2021 @04:59AM (#25774431)
What happened with rent control in Berlin?

Rent control sounds like a good idea in theory but in practice it seems the opposite, creating two tiers of renters.

Re:Ask HN: How to increase SWE salaries in Europe? by llampx on Thursday January 14, 2021 @07:48AM (#25775720)
They introduced the Mietendeckel law last year, which solidified the two tier system for renters. If you had a good rent contract in a central location, you were sitting pretty and could probably count on a decrease in rent. If you had done the responsible thing and rented in a further away location, no such luck. If you are looking for an apartment now, supply has been dramatically reduced. Great for the haves, not so much for the have nots.
Re:Ask HN: How to increase SWE salaries in Europe? by imtringued on Thursday January 14, 2021 @08:35AM (#25776078)
Rent control is a bad idea in theory as well. A theoretical solution to the problem that can deliver the promises of rent control is if the government guarantees housing for the desired price.

The reason why it works is because the government is forced to change laws that prevent the construction it just promised. It's about accountability rather than the promise itself.

The reason why rent control doesn't work is because the government can enact or keep laws that restrict the supply of housing. There is no accountability. It's actually equivalent to censorship. If you want the housing market to look good, just ban bad news (high prices).