Italy on the other hand has seen a decrease in positive rate as they are increasing testing. That’s what happens as you’re nearing Or over a peak.

All countries seem to have some method of testing / adding suspect cases of people who died. As such, that’s probably the most accurate (albeit lagging) method of comparison.

https://github.com/lettergram/covid19-analysis

So for the clearest, most unbiased picture of COVID impact, calculate % increase over normal death rate by country, and then compare that.

(I guess. Just spitballing.)

https://www.washingtonpost.com/investigations/which-deaths-c...

It's suggesting we track all deaths/ Then we look at the increase in average deaths. Based on the trends we should be able to estimate how many additional (likely covid) deaths we have incurred during the crisis

From all my calculations i find one thing: we've been lied to a lot in the past few weeks.

I'll have it like (imagine spreadsheet columns): -Country name -County population (latest census) -Deaths by COVID -Deaths per 1 million (e.g. 100 deaths / 10m pop = 10) -Date of first death -Source of population data -Source of COVID death count

I am curious to see how countries that are "too big to fail" will perform (UK, USA) in comparison to other (Harari mentioned Greece on an interview).

I was checking and so far Greece has a ~13 Vs the UK which has ~320 ("ratios").

So congrats Boris Johnson!! You just killed x24 people!! (Great choice UK voters - keep up the wise choices!!!)

This isn't about BJ specifically, this is more to show how each country treated this situation and respecting its people (these are not just numbers, these are dead people, parents, grandparents, and some very few children). It would also be useful to then process these numbers and categorise the results (I am curious to see the ratios in the Triad USA, UK, Brazil Vs other similar sized countries with different-style leaders).

I also do not expect the truth from some countries (e.g. Russia, China, any Arab peninsula countries, NK etc.) or some African countries that are torn by civil wars or other conflicts. But I believe there will be a solid baseline and the outliers (below) will be easily pointed out as ineffective measured.

Heck, it is tricky to remain anonymous even over the Tor Browser.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tor_(anonymity_network)#Weak...

https://euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps/

But also, since the virus is growing exponentially, differences in countries is by 10-100x, while the differences in the number of tests performed seems to be closer to 2-10x.

Edited to add: The daily statistic by population ratio is very spiky, and gets spikier the smaller the country is, which makes it hilariously useless. A rolling average would improve that a bit, but remember that some countries might be off with a factor of 2x or 3x when it comes to reported deaths, which is an insane level of uncertainty.

You can also make some indications if a country is doing unusually well or bad: If the ratio of cases/population or deaths/population were significantly different from most other countries, this would warrant a closer look.

Also, how did we get from reporting differences to "garbage data"? What kind of data would you classify as non-garbage?

https://xkcd.com/2295/

I'm not arguing for looking more closely - on the contrary, I'm saying that the large-scale trends are meaningful - say, how growth rate or mortality/population develops over time.

The UI is gorgeous and very usable, the only thing that threw me is when you hover over a line, I wish it would show which country it corresponds to.

With that said I still find a log-log plot much easier to interpret, and so far, the gold standard on trend clarity visualization remains Aatish Bhatia's (https://aatishb.com/covidtrends/). Maybe a way to switch to a similar log/log scale? Otherwise it's very difficult to figure out when a given country approaches the knee.

(Thank you, this is great!)

(though only for Iceland)

Nebraska, Iowa, the Dakotas and Arkansas aren't under any form of lockdown at all.

I am talking about Turkey, where death rates are even lower than Germany and the curfews are partial. There's an abundance of IC units despite the 100K cases and the spread curve is already going down and the country is in a position to offer substantial help to other major countries.

There have been some CNN[0] and BBC reporting on this but with the numbers THAT good, I would have expected much higher interest. I know about the democracy and free speech situation but the country is not North Korea, Turkey is actually doing that good in managing the situation.

Just switch Turkey on in this website and you'll see how much better Turkey is doing.

I am beginning to suspect that the Eurocentric mindset is literally killing Europeans at this time. There's a hugely successful country that is integrated with Europe, has some of its territory in Europe, it has a population of a large European country and yet nobody seems to think about looking at Turkey for an example.

As a quick note, Turkey manages to do this through aggressive contact tracing through thousands of tracking teams around the country. It was revealed that in Istanbul alone there are 1200 contact tracing teams consisting of doctors, nurses and etc. that track down every infection. It's not as cool as having Tech giants make an app but it works. According to the health ministry, these teams use purpose built apps to coordinate and the entire health system is well integrated and they monitor every single patients status - be it at home or in the hospital and have very good picture of the situation.

Turkey has many problems but the health system is not one of them and maybe it's worth taking a look at.

[0]: https://edition.cnn.com/videos/world/2020/04/21/inside-turke...

"I don't like Erdogan and his policies" is not good enough to dismiss Turkey as a closed society, the country is NOT like DPRK or Iran. Turkey is financially and institutionally integrated with Europe and the USA.

This(dismissing the country solely on its current political situation or lack of awareness beyond the stereotype and prejudice) is exactly the mentality that I am talking about and I suspect that it is killing many people in the west.

(I agree with the obvious followup, that we should check to see if other countries we believe are doing well look good in the same metric.)

That said, it's no different than what's happening some other western countries. There are reports about the UK numbers being higher too, essentially the idea is that some deaths are not reported as COVID-19 deaths if it happens out of hospital or pre-testing.

People are not dying en masse. The mortality is increased and maybe the real numbers are %50 more than the official numbers but even then it's much better than most places.

I don't say that to knock on Turkey, just to explain the perspective. People aren't ignoring Turkey because they don't trust Turkey specifically; it's because they don't trust any of these numbers. The idea that there's some core competency of pandemic response possessed by almost every country in the world but absent in most of the West seems... implausible.

I don't know about Mexico, I cannot comment about them but if they are doing even better than Turkey, good for them but I cannot comment on that, I don't know the reality on the ground.

China's numbers cannot be trusted. Turkey's numbers cannot be trusted. WHO cannot be trusted.

Even Germany cannot be trusted; I saw a statement from an Italien doctor saying that reason for the difference between Germany and Italy was that Germany was systematically undercounting deaths (for political reasons).

[1] https://rsf.org/en/ranking

They are overworked and are under the risk of antisocial patients but Silencing a doctor in Turkey is not as easy as silencing a journo. They are well educated, well paid and well organized. It is very unlikely that a doctor would participate in a cover-up in fear of politicians.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_arrested_journalists_i...

https://www.hrw.org/news/2018/03/27/turkey-crackdown-social-...

https://ahvalnews.com/germany-turkey/turkey-detains-german-n...

https://cpj.org/reports/2019/12/journalists-jailed-china-tur...

That's not the situation with the doctors. The doctors in Turkey are picked from Crème de la crème among the students, educated in some of the most prestigious institutions and paid very well. They have money, they have options, they have connections.

Doctors are not journalists, these lists are about journalists and it is correct that Erdogan destroyed the press freedom in Turkey but Doctors don't work for the TV channels and the newspaper and they have access to social media.

There isn't much to debate, Turkey is universally seen as a dictatorship and has a track record of doing very shady and questionable things (which are not even close to being acceptable in the EU or US). Feel free to believe whatever you want but you haven't provided any resources besides your own idea of what Turkey is and this view isn't backed by anyone besides Erdoğan supporters.

They need to accuse you of something and have a trail. All can be unfair and it is often unfair but you don't disappear, you can fight in the process and it catches a lot of public attention. Being a doctor means that the public loves you, trusts you, you have the money and the connections to fight.

If there was a cover-up, I am sure that doctors would have been talking because there are many doctors openly critical to the government and they even have a society for that. This is not Iran, China, DPRK or whatever country where you can just disappear.

You should probably just stop digging, information is available on internet for free and every single one of your claims can be refuted in a few seconds. They do send people to jail over the most ridiculous things, even doctors.

Whatever. Believe whatever you want, go ahead believe that I died from COVID-19 but the government is covering up by writing replies to you from my account.

Things are fine in Turkey(regarding the COVID-19 situation), Erdogan being a dictator doesn't change a thing about that, journalist in jail don't automatically count as COVID-19 deaths.

Why would they tell the truth and make their country look bad if they can avoid it ? You won't make me believe Turkey has a better health care system, testing facilities and post mortem checks than EU countries. Do they send people in remote rural areas and check the causes of death from people who died in the last 3 months ? Do they count people with comorbidities ? Do they count people dying outside of hospitals ?

> stereotype and prejudice

It literally is a military dictatorship, like, what ?! do we have to accept everything no matter how fucked up they are these days ? The world isn't rainbow and sunshine, you won't make me trust Turkey on these kind of topics. I simply don't buy it, there is such a long trail of lies, deceptions, propaganda, &c. Look at what Trump gets away with while being under spotlight worldwide, now imagine what a guy like Erdoğan gets away with ...

I would suggest you do some research, like researching if it's a military dictatorship or not. Check out what happened to the military in 2016 when they attempted a coup. The results may surprise you.

Anyway, the Turkish health system is quite similar to NHS and the doctors are severely overworked so I wouldn't claim that Turkey has a better health system but I would claim that it is handling the COVID-19 response better than the most.

Turkey is not a closed society, there are many ways to verify these claims.

Actually, this deeply flawed understanding of the situation in Turkey is part of the problem anyway. If you can overcome this, you can learn a thing or two from the way Turkey is handling the situation. Take it or leave it.

The first link that pops when typing "turkey coup aftermath" in google starts with "The aftermath of the failed Turkey coup: Torture, beatings and rape". I'm not sure where I'm supposed to be surprised.

https://www.amnesty.org.uk/aftermath-failed-turkey-coup-tort...

In Turkey's case, the military attempted a coup, failed and the civilians did these things to the military.

Pro tip: The guys with the uniform are the military ones, they got beaten on the streets when attempted to establish a military dictatorship.

Wikipedia even state their numbers: "97% of Turkish Armed Forces ranking officers and 66% of the military's top leadership" sided with Erdoğan. The coup was attempted by a little over 10k people.

I frankly don't think you researched any of what you're talking about.

I don't claim that Turkey is a functioning democracy but this doesn't make it a military dictatorship. turkey has many problems, that doesn't make it wrong or bad in every other aspect too.

Still, it looks like Turkey also are earlier in the curve, which would explain at least some of the better fatality numbers.

That's probably an example of the blind eye.

The ones on the ground don't have such a rosy view.

Obviously it's not a rosy situation when a hunders people are dying every day but I am yet to see a credible report of a cover-up.

My doctor relative told me that she had to buy some of her PPE and that they are getting paranoid about catching the bug but she doesn't think that the situation is worse than the reported. She complained about some management issues like asking people to get a test but not providing them with a safe place to queue and so on but no, people are not dying en mass here in Istanbul.

Thousands of citizens were repatriated, large PPE deliveries to the UK, Spain, Italy and so on, the death rate is at 2.5, the hospital bed occupancy rate was at about %50, ICU occupancy rate at about 60% last time I checked.

The country is doing something right and is doing it right at scale.

Aside from that, the visualization looks very nice.

http://91-divoc.com/pages/covid-visualization/

Source: https://dashboard.covid19.data.gouv.fr/

- overlaying the graphs from the moment of the first case (shifting the data in time)

- ICU beds available/used

- overlay of measures taken (e.g. when did social distancing start)

- easily showing differences in time (e.g. dragging between two dates shows the number of days between them)

That's available in the bottom left. You can align to either deaths or confirmed cases.

These deaths can be about 50% of the total deaths.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/24/is-comparing-c...

> But such comparisons can be misleading. Unlike the UK, Italy or Spain, Belgium counts all coronavirus deaths outside hospitals in its daily statistics: deaths in care homes account for 53% of the total. Belgium’s official toll also includes people suspected of having died of coronavirus, without a confirmed diagnosis. Nearly all deaths in care homes (94%) are suspected Covid-19 cases, rather than confirmed – an approach that has led some to complain Belgium is overestimating the number of fatalities.

(They probably aren't over counting. Covid-19 is devastating for nursing homes and care homes).

The problem becomes obvious when the total death numbers for the last few months are compared to the historical average.

See for example this NYT analysis, which shows that Belgium's numbers line up with the actual increase in death rate, not the more-or-less made up numbers from most other countries: https://www.nytimes.com./interactive/2020/04/21/world/corona...

Current (Apr 26) toll is 7,094 if you include suspected deaths, but is 3,596 if you only count positive cases.

--

[1] https://covid-19.sciensano.be/sites/default/files/Covid19/De...

Edit: actually it seems in Italy is also reported every day.

D3 is very powerful, but there's a lot to learn too!

If you just want to dip your toes in though, the official website's linked gallery [1] is a pretty cool resource. No set up or data loading required!

[0] https://www.newline.co/fullstack-d3 [1] https://observablehq.com/@d3/gallery