There's an expected lag, we saw that in the Wuhan lockdown. Beyond a certain density of infection though, maybe it just won't be effective enough.
Wuhan lockdown was Jan 23rd and cases continued to rise for some time after because there is an incubation period, and additional family (and maybe within apartment building?) infection.
Italy lockdown is just where they were Wuhan was on Feb 2nd or so, it didn't look like it was slowing down enough for them at that point, but then did.
The trajectory will bend down. Whether it's sufficient we'll see in a couple of weeks, but that might be too late.
Assuming 1 person knows 100 people, it would take 1 million deaths to seriously warn 100 million. And since it takes 3-4 weeks from infection to death, during which the warning still wouldn't be personally grave, and infections continue to spread. Thus, the population will be infected until herd immunity is sufficiently high (~60% of population if R0 is ~2.5). [1]
If hospitalization rate is 15% & Infection Fatality Rate (IFR) is 1%, then 9%/0.6% of the population will be severely ill/die within 1-2 years, respectively, just from this one disease. One can do further arithmetic for a given country.
The 'solution' above is clearly unacceptable to the vast majority of people.
[1] Herd immunity threshold Vc= 1 - 1/R0, where R0 is basic reproduction number of a disease https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Herd_immunity#Mechanics
Germany is doing better than most in Europe by the former measures.
South Korea also had a higher infection growth rate since they tested extensively. Because of that they can identify cases and contain the spread.
Perhaps you'd like to do so. If not, consider that this is a singularly bad time to be spreading misinformation, no matter how plausible you may find it. People are already frightened enough.
Again, doesn't take a genius.
nothing more complicated than that.
However, China lied about human transmissibility of the virus until Jan 20.
They lied about where the virus came from including lying that it was an American invention.
They also did not count pneumonia deaths caused by the virus: https://www.wsj.com/articles/relatives-wonder-whether-pneumo...
They have also kicked out american media so there are no independent fact checkers on the ground.
Their official death rate is also lower than every other country's.
Thus, the null hypothesis is that china is lying, like they always do. A claim that they are not lying would need to be supported by evidence. Otherwise this is just the fallacy of an appeal to authority.
China sees drop in new coronavirus cases; all new cases imported, March 22
https://www.reddit.com/r/China/comments/fmz3d6/while_china_c...
Translated: On March 20th, A local community management issued a notice, stating that one of the unit has 2 patient found, the unit will be sealed and no one is allowed to enter or exit.
It essentaily means that they are starving to death in the room.
Don’t trust the Chinese government’s propaganda
Do you see what I mean about seeming like a conspiracy theory? Heinlein's Red-baiting about Soviet cosmonauts unpersoned when their early space capsules failed and stranded them, despite being nonsense, had at least the virtue of originality. But that was over half a century ago. I'd like to hope our standards have risen in the interim.
Stop with the unfounded speculation and fearmongering.
You have no data to back up your totally spurious allegations. Are you just outright speculating? If you're going to say something so bold, citations are necessary.
What we do know is this:
- Apple has re-opened their factories and all 42 Apple stores in all of China [1], and closed their Apple stores in the entire rest of the world [2]. There is absolutely no reason to believe that Apple would do this except in the face of evidence. What kind of PR nightmare do you think they'd be inviting if it was discovered they put lives at risk to placate the PRC?
- Tourist attractions and factories are re-opening. [3]
- The WHO said: "China’s bold approach to contain the rapid spread of this new respiratory pathogen has changed the course of a rapidly escalating and deadly epidemic. A particularly compelling statistic is that on the first day of the advance team’s work there were 2478 newly confirmed cases of COVID-19 reported in China. Two weeks later, on the final day of this Mission, China reported 409 newly confirmed cases. This decline in COVID-19 cases across China is real." [4]
- I've no doubt this will be confirmed via observation of atmospheric release of nitrous oxides in short order.
Fine, if you don't want to believe China, Apple or the WHO (and soon NASA), you better have some data, otherwise it's just breathless unsubstantiated fear-mongering and conspiracy theories.
[1] https://www.theverge.com/2020/3/13/21177964/apple-stores-chi...
[2] https://nypost.com/2020/03/17/apple-extends-coronavirus-trig...
[3] https://www.forbes.com/sites/jamesasquith/2020/03/21/no-new-...
[4] https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/who-chi...
They literally locked people in their homes in the entirety of Wuhan (population 19 million) for a month and sent drones after them if they walked out. It's really not possible for a disease to spread if people are physically isolated. That much is settled science haha.
The difference is China kept people apart by force, and much of the west doesn't have the necessary respect for authority to do so voluntarily. One comment I replied to here someone literally quoted me the national anthem as their justification for going outside and ignoring the shelter-in-place orders.
If there's one thing a totalitarian government can do effectively, it's lock people indoors.
They may well have been wrong, or made mistakes early on. You can't exactly claim that the US' response was bang on the money the whole time either. Remember two weeks ago when Donald Trump told us this was nothing to worry about then the next day declared a national emergency then the day after invoked the defense procurement act then did nothing with it? Remember a few days ago when he called it the "deep state department" in front of Fauci who couldn't contain his laughter? Is Donald Trump a propaganda arm of the Chinese? Uh actually wait don't answer that, but you get my point.
It's usually incompetence not malice. Provide sources, not speculation.
[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_Health_Organization#Fina...
He predicted the Chinese cessation of outbreak correctly because China consistently implemented the lockdown plan across regions and had strict measures to make sure of compliance.
From what we see, few western countries have bended the infection trajectory sufficiently to see the outbreak ending soon. Some people’s behaviors and general lack of mask wearing don’t help. (I think Germany may eventually accomplish that. The 2-person-max meeting rule and relatively extensive testing should help.)
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries
We must read professional epidemiologists, like Marc Lipsitch of Harvard, whose expertise is more relevant and who don’t have nearly as rosy a view on the epidemic. (Marc is also on Twitter.)
https://harvardmagazine.com/2020/03/lipsitch-call-to-action