Re:Nobel laureate predicts a quicker coronavirus recovery
by nopinsight on Monday March 23, 2020 @12:36AM
(#22661302)
The lagging effect is true. What we see is a snapshot to the past. However, most accounts suggest that the European 'lockdown', esp early days in Italy, is too lax.
The trajectory will bend down. Whether it's sufficient we'll see in a couple of weeks, but that might be too late.
There's an expected lag, we saw that in the Wuhan lockdown. Beyond a certain density of infection though, maybe it just won't be effective enough.
Wuhan lockdown was Jan 23rd and cases continued to rise for some time after because there is an incubation period, and additional family (and maybe within apartment building?) infection.
Italy lockdown is just where they were Wuhan was on Feb 2nd or so, it didn't look like it was slowing down enough for them at that point, but then did.