If your competitor can't restart his economy but you can then you have a massive advantage over them.

The very fact that we are discussing this is super silly and shitty. The whole world should be working together, not competing with each other and not trying to screw each other over.

This type of competition is harmful at this point. And deeply stupid. Cooperation needs to become a thing again.

It’s not “at this point,” it’s “at this stage of world connectivity and interdependence” (where we’ve been for the past twenty+ years).

That sounds like a terrible way to play the iterated prisoners dilemma.

If the USA tries to screw over Germany like this, Germany could equally try screw over the USA - and they're the one with the vaccine company.

China is going to win this. USA mishandles the pandemic, blocks the EU-US transit way after it could help anything, and now pulls stunts like this. Meanwhile, China is restarting their economy, and is scoring points by sending teams of doctors and hundreds of tons of medical equipment to countries around the world, including two in EU.

When the dust settles, I think Europe may end up reconsidering who to side with.

China is run by an authoritarian extreme nationalistic government that tortures its citizen that dare to critise it. That is widely known. Europe will stay a close ally with the USA and the cooperation will resume to normality once the USA has recovered from its recent personality cult and government running on lies.

None of this however is relevant in this context - what is relevant is that even with 3 months of warnings western democracies utterly failed to prepare.

We love our freedom and our ideals but our execution sucks and it has nothing to do with China being authoritarian at this point.

Taiwan is a democracy and they handled it just fine.

No, we have elected clowns who tell us sweet lies we want to hear rather than the information we need to adapt to a changing world and now we have the worst aspects of both systems. Shit, in the US the local officials wanted to do the right thing while the dear leader screwed around blocking them, dismissed the scientists and acting uncontrolled and unchecked supported by his blindly loyal party officials and supported by his quasi-state-TV channel - that's like reverse China, the stupid version. We are really not in any position to give lectures right now.

So let's stop shouting China is bad reflexively whenever our own faults are kicking us in the ass and actually demonstrate that our system is better - because right now, it is not - and a lot more people are about to die because of it.

And right next there is a whole host of other risks queued up that will hit us in the same way- antibiotics resistance, resource exhaustion, pensions, climate change, etc. If this was the preview of how we will adapt to these challenges - ignoring them and letting them wash over us to not inconvenience the existing economy - I think China has a much better chance of adapting right now than we have.

We are lucky in a way to get this virus as a reality check and not something worse... but even this will leave millions dead, many unnecessary due to lack of preparation during the time paid for with the lives of many people in Wuhan and failure to heed science.

This is very well phrased. I've been thinking similar thoughts, but it's hard to put them into words. Democracy and freedom of expression is fantastic, but this crisis reveals the failings of modern democracy in a spectacular fashion.

Especially in the places that have had the most spectacular demonstrations of this recently; the UK and the USA. It's tragic, but as you said, this is a mild wakeup call. Hope it's heeded, but I'm not too optimistic.

Is this sarcasm? Because, honestly, at this point I can not tell.

Yes, China is doing terrible things – and also many good things. So is the US.

Of course as citizens of the western world it's easier to connect with western governments, weigh more heavily against the atrocities of the others and brush over our own systems shortcomings.

Lest we forget it is impossible to be objective.

China imprisons people who criticized the covid19 effort, they arrested doctors. Did you know that docs or researchers put the covid19 sequence on the web (it was used by the seattle flu study to identify cv here), then arrested them.

The us doesn't do that kind of thing (trump would no doubt like to do that, with his talk of making cv numbers an official secret). China was very effective stopping the virus apparently, after screwing it up at the start. They just kidnapped a critical billionaire.

That 'whistleblower doctor' was reprimanded, not arrested. The Chinese supreme court later judged in his favor, saying that the police shouldn't have reprimanded him. Even CGTN, a state media, admitted that the treatment of the doctor was wrong.

The US might recover in the sense of electing someone less clownish but I don't see this economic mercantilist trend in the US subsiding because it is gaining steam on both sides of the political spectrum. Warren for example, championing 'economic patriotism' has similar impulses and withdrawing from the world is now an equally liberal and conservative position.

Yeah, "widely known". What is less widely known is that that isn't as true as you think.

Case study: https://mothership.sg/2019/12/news-china-protests-wenlou-hua... People in Guangdong province -- closely Hong Kong -- protested against the building of a crematorium. They also complained that the government didn't consult them before proceeding with the plans. Some even rioted, similarly to Hong Kongers. Did the government put them in jail forever? Nope: peaceful protesters were unharmed, rioters got jailed but were released later and forgiven. The government scrapped the plans and gave citizens what they wanted.

How is this possible in an authoritarian country? There is only one answer: your image of what China is, is wrong.

There is a core of truth of all the claims about authoritarianism and human rights abuse, but it's just that: a core. That core has been exaggerated beyond all reason.

Like someone else posted: china has good aspects and bad aspects. Just like the US. Just like other countries. Time to stop viewing it as a caricature and start treating it for what it really is.

All along by not stopping in earlier stage. Good lesson to learn how to eliminate your competitor in the long run are we?

China’s handling of this is the reason we are all in this situation. They had a chance to contain it and they chose to shut down information that would have stopped the spread. Now the Chinese government are some kind of heroes?

I really don't get this sentiment. China fucked up their initial handling of the situation, but it took over a month for them to figure out that they're dealing with a dangerous new pathogen. These things aren't apparent from the first few cases that get discovered. Meanwhile, the rest of the world had two months of warning about the danger, and we fucked up worse. Blaming China for not containing it is ridiculous and completely unfair - I doubt anyone would've fared better. US handling of the situation in particular proves it would fare even worse (complete with suppression of data).

The screw up was caused by the lower level CCP trying to sweep the problem under the carpet. Once the big boys got involved it was taken seriously.

As for instantly closing the borders: if you did that everytime a new virus popped up then you'd be closing the borders twice a year.

How do you know that Germany isn't already trying to screw over the USA and the rest of the world? One of the first things they did is block mask exports to the rest of Europe.

Why do you think that’s screwing over somebody, rather than rationally protecting the very limited supply already insufficient for Germany’s own imminent need?

Last time it happened was end of the second world war.

This is the kind of "zero sum game" thinking that Putin uses, i.e. "someone else losing is the same as me winning".

Please explain how that'd advantage the US? The US spent hundreds of billions of dollars to restart the German economy and rebuild Europe post-WW2 as part of the Marshall Plan. Modern Europe nearly owes its existence to the herculean efforts of Americans. There is absolutely no reason we'd try to stifle or damage Europe now. We are allies.

Good point on Marshall Plan. But "Modern Europe nearly owes its existence to the herculean efforts of Americans" - really? If you're talking about ww2, Soviet union had a far more important role to play. https://www.vox.com/2014/6/16/5814270/the-successful-70-year...

When does this myth die? 70 years, is this version still taught where you went to school (US?)?

"hundreds of billions of dollars"

Germany received $14B (in 2020 $). Most of the money was loans and Germany made the last debt payment in 1971.

The Marshall plan had three goals: 1.) Start the US peace time economy and help transition companies from wartime production to consumer goods 2.) Prevent communist influence in Europe by preventing starving Europeans 3.) Open European markets to US companies by reducing barriers and regulations.

"The Marshall Plan aid was mostly used for the purchase of goods from the United States." --Wikipedia

"Its role in the rapid recovery has been debated. The Marshall Plan's accounting reflects that aid accounted for about 3% of the combined national income of the recipient countries between 1948 and 1951, which means an increase in GDP growth of less than half a percent." --Wikipedia

That aside grateful to every US soldier who risked his life or lost his life to free Europe, especially those that gave chocolates to my starving parents. They can always have a free lunch here.

I think Europeans don't trust this bond anymore since Make America Great Again and America First became the slogans of the US administration.

But it will pass. It might take 4 more years the worst, but the us isn't becoming a nationalist authoritarian country. I hope. Sadly, I don't joke.

You realize the person in charge doesn't know what the Marshall Plan is and only know "the art of the deal."

A common forgotten point is that they spend that money partially because they had to it else they could not have guaranteed that Europe would not align with communism. At the same time doing so saved the USA from a economical crash caused by overproduction. Lastly it allowed them to gain deep tried economical influence.

While the USA might sometimes to present it as a selfless act it wasn't selfless at all. It was what allowed them to become the most powerful country in the word, at least for a view years.

Lastly Trump didn't just want to buy right on the potential vaccines he wanted to get exclusive rights. It was never even a question before that if the EU finds a vaccine then the USA will get it, too. But now he did an action which completely destroy the trust between the EU and the USA when it comes to fighting this pandemic together.

Ramping up production of a new drug is typically an involved, lengthy process. Supply of any drug is going to be severely limited when needed most.

Yeah, isn't the point of a vaccine to immunize as many people as possible, not just those in one country? If you don't immunize globally it won't work as well. This administration has pulled a lot of dumb stunts but this one might take the cake.

Please share your data and calculations for this claim. I understand how exponential growth works, and I realize there is an incubation period, but this really just feels like unnecessary fear mongering considering we're at less than 6000 deaths worldwide as of now.

https://talksub.com/covid19

I agree it's hyperbolic, but the numbers are staggering and quoting the current deaths are really misleading in this respect. This will affect small percentages of everyone. A million deaths world wide, with a disease that is expected to reach 60+% of the population is not much. It's the difference in the death rate of 0.02%. In other words, if a sufficiently early intervention manages to reduce the death rate from 1% to 0.98%, that's a million lifes saved.

However, the sensitive dependence on initial conditions only applies to things that happen during exponential growth. By the time a vaccine hits (according to many reputable sources about a year from now) we will be in a very different stage of the disease anyway.

So you expect some mechanism to prevent the exponential growth then? Which?

The earliest a vaccine will come is a year from now. The good majority of deaths will happen before then. So a one week delay won't be that costly.

..and it should come years from now. Hearing some researchers talk about fast tracking a SARS-cov2 vaccine in 18 ~24 months seems terribly unsafe. Vaccines need extensive animal testing following by phased human trials, less we have a repeat of the Lyme disease vaccine.

General vaccines for Corona virus families should have started years ago. H1N1 had a vaccine because it was a known flu that was researched previously. It was just the ramp-up/production time that was the issue there.

The Lyme disease vaccine: "By 2001, 1.4 million doses of the vaccine had been distributed, but the FDA’s Vaccine Adverse Events Reporting System only picked up on 59 reports of arthritis."

Rates of arthritis roughly at population baseline level.

People who talk about going through the motions of 2 years of animal trials have zero perspective. In wartime, this pedantry needs to be chucked our the window. Do the high yield human tests asap using heroic volunteers, and do it fast.

“using heroic volunteers,”

I assume you are one of them?

Moving too fast and not being careful could be what gave us Covid-19. If it comes out that it was a product of SARS/MERS research then the tone of these "move fast" conversations will certainly change.

Please take your conspiracy stuff somewhere else.

What's the conspiracy?

The bullshit about COVID-19 coming out of SARS/MERS research.

It's a zoonotic disease. It came from wildlife and jumped the species barrier.

we know it isn't, we can tell because of genetic sequencing that it isn't.

Please stop.

Supplies for vaccinces of any kind are always subject to constraints and so deliveries are prioritized by the highest bidder. I know for example the flu vaccine gets delivered to the US and Japan first from a certain French pharmaceutical because they pay (by far) the highest prices. Of all G7 countries, Canada pays the least for the flu vaccine so they get the the vaccines last.

The US has a massive amount of standing capacity to produce vaccines. All they need is a license to produce it.

Given the threat posed by the Corona virus this is exactly what must happen.

Honestly, if the company refuses to license, nearly no country will just comply and keep watching people die.

So, no not even a license is required.

This so much! The technology to built such a vaccine will not be that complex, its only the information about what works and is safe that is expensive. Who ever thinks otherwise has no idea of how big pharma works and why it is expensive.

Agreed, but why would it need to be done "exclusively" in the U.S?

That's not what I mean. There is no need for Trump to do this; once someone develops a vaccine then they should be able to license it for a normal fee.

The US have a massive army of chickens ready to produce eggs which are used to produce vaccines in the order of millions per month. They just need the vaccine and they can produce it.

I hope that Europe are in the same situation.

It's unfortunately fake news, if you read the Reuters report they cite as evidence there is no mention of exclusivity just funding. In fact the exact opposite is said.

> The U.S. government has spoken with many (more than 25) companies that claim they can help with a vaccine. Most of these companies already received seed funding from U.S. investors... any solution found would be shared with the world

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-german...

it's not fake news. Please read the updated article from the link you posted above:

> Welt am Sonntag also quoted an unidentified German government source as saying Trump was trying to secure the scientists’ work exclusively, and would do anything to get a vaccine for the United States, “but only for the United States.”

Yeah, so there is an unsubstantiated german government source and then the very next sentence the company denies it themselves:

>CureVac issued a statement on Sunday, in which it said: “The company rejects current rumors of an acquisition”.

Finally they give a quote from a US rep:

> The U.S. government has spoken with many (more than 25) companies that claim they can help with a vaccine. Most of these companies already received seed funding from U.S. investors... any solution found would be shared with the world

The company CureVac only denied rumours that it will be bought, it did nor deny claims that the Trump administration approached them and tried to buy exclusive access to the vaccine.