COVID-19 death rates in China are about 2-3% and significantly lower outside of China. (less than one percent). Probably due to the healthcare systems in the Hubei region being pushed to its limits.
Bad flu seasons in the US generally have a fatality rate of about 0.2% and infect about 30 million people annually, killing about 60000.
So even if COVID-19 cannot be contained and will linger around it will likely not be as deadly as influenza.
What happens when the Italian healthcare system gets pushed to its limits? With a conservative estimate of 15% hospitalization (which I can't vouch for, but offer for the sake of discussion), there may be no medical system in the world which is prepared for this.
Sure, if you mean that the capacity isn't there.
And sure, if you mean it won't be 15% of the total, but rather 15% of the 70% of the population who catch it, then ok.
If you mean that that level of care isn't required for the 15% of severe cases which was seen in the studies, then you'll have to refute the studies of people who know more about this than you, with some better arguments than that.
http://weekly.chinacdc.cn/en/article/id/e53946e2-c6c4-41e9-9...
Sorry, but where in gods name is this number coming from? There are currently a few hundred cases documented in Italy,rate of new coronavirus cases worldwide has slowed down to about 500-1000 per day.
For reference, the US has about 1 million hospital visits for pneumonia every year. I couldn't find numbers for Italy but I assume it's in the ballpark of 200k relatively speaking. So a few hundred extra cases or even a few thousand aren't going to push the system anywhere.
Not really.
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanres/article/PIIS2213-2...
The best measure will be something of this sort, with a sufficient duration to catch most of the fatalities.
This was released Thursday: https://www.thelancet.com/pb-assets/Lancet/pdfs/S22132600203...
Adjusting for the delay between infection and first symptoms a relatively small percentage of people avoided symptoms.
There are actually 5 episodes on "this week in virology". These people are virology professors in the US.
This episode an interesting look at the percentages.
http://www.microbe.tv/twiv/twiv-588/
EDIT: two other interesting aspects, over 80% of the cases were mild and over 50% of chinese males smoke.
Now I suppose measures China style will drop its transmission rate below flu, but at the minimum that's a heavy economic cost to be concerned with.
edit: To put a finer point on it, the estimates of the R nought range from the same as the Spanish Flu, to double the Spanish Flu.
There are vaccines for flu; none for C19 for 18 months at the earliest. Also, C19 is contagious when victims are asymptomatic. It aerosolizes so it can spread across rooms and potentially through ventilation systems.
Many C19 healthcare workers are becoming infected, some dying. This is unheard of with the flu.
And C19 is uncontained, unlike SARS. It meets the definition of pandemic now (2+ continents and community spread). The WHO will finally recognize this any day now.
To equate C19 with the flu is inaccurate and dangerous.
Watch this video from CNBC last Friday.[1] It’s excellent, and features experts who do not mince words.
If HIV had the same response as this year's coronavirus is getting, it would've been stopped dead in its tracks. Meanwhile people around the world would say governments overstepped their bounds, fear ran rampant, and it really wasn't that dangerous--the common cold kills more in absolute numbers.
We really don't know much about the disease yet. SARS had a huge fatality rate, but it was well contained. If it weren't and absolutely nobody panicked or worried, it would've decimated some urban centers. Sometimes it's fine to be extra careful in the beginning and easing up only after you're certain that it's not that bad, and unknown diseases are one of those times. Taking a more carefree approach doesn't look so good if deaths start tallying up.
Remember - there are still people who believe the earth is flat - when you're up against that basic ilk of intellect, the World becomes a strange place very easily when you push a few variables.
Even sadder is, most people will think of this CV as the flu of the year and with that, many statistics will become entwined.
In this case say 100 people got SAR - 10 people die Now Flu - 1000 people get that and - same net result.
Lets face it, how many got SARS in total - less than 10k How many people catch the flu each year? - millions litterly millions.
But as with most of these - it is overall health and underlying preexisting conditions that can and do skew statistics and not all countries log things to the same standard.
If you did what China is doing now to deal with flu, you'd drastically cut transmission rates.
Beyond the immediate medical consequences, there is also the societal reaction and potential overreaction. The world economy has been poised for a pullback and this just might trigger the next global recession(my money is on that happening, even if we find a vaccine next week).
Like always, it's a good idea to have a disaster plan in place. Make sure you have a few weeks of critical medications and food on hand. Help those around you put the current events into perspective, help them stay calm, and help them prepare.