News for hackers. Stuff that matters.
Re:100 million dollars to reshape the economics of the web by sebastos on Monday September 16, 2019 @10:08PM (#20990540)
This kind of seems like a troubling insight at first glance, but it doesn't pass basic sanity checks imo. You could make the same exact argument about any other type of industry. Watch:

>The [pool of discretionary income people have to spend on books] is a small fraction of [all commercial companies' marketing budgets], therefore it will always be more profitable to run free bookstores that try to make money by putting ads inside the dustjackets and all along the shelves.

But this obviously isn't true - Barnes and Noble is a thing. Or you could even consider Kindles and the ebook market examples of how this isn't true. It can be far _superior_ in terms of revenue to offer a product that people pay for directly, as opposed to baiting them into a space with ads in it.

I think the mistake came in when you compared all of the marketing budgets combined, (call it M), with all of the discretionary income combined, (D), and took it as axiomatic that D << M. But... how could that possibly be true? Most companies will not be operating at a loss, which means their annual marketing budget will be some fraction of their gross revenue. From what I can tell from some googling, at least ~60% of that revenue, averaging over all corporations, is coming directly from... consumers' pocketbooks.

Some more googling tells me that marketing spend from US companies was ~$200 billion in 2018. US consumers spent $14 trillion. So the whole premise strikes me as questionable. Am I missing something?

Re:100 million dollars to reshape the economics of the web by dangrossman on Monday September 16, 2019 @10:45PM (#20990794)
I think what you're missing is that discretionary spending is not all spending, and marketing budgets are a percentage of all spending. When I go to CNN.com right now, I see ads for Tide pods and Toyota SUVs. That ad spend came from our supermarket and car payments, which you can't redirect to tipping websites unless you want to stop eating and driving to work.

My argument is basically that no web monetization plan that involves redirecting some of our discretionary spending towards paying websites can make up for the advertising revenue they currently get, because that ad revenue is funded by not only a portion of our discretionary spending, but a portion of ALL our spending, and the non-discretionary portion is much larger. Tide and Toyota are always going to have more money to spend on advertising than Bobby and Jill have the discretion to spend on sponsoring websites.

Re:100 million dollars to reshape the economics of the web by sebastos on Monday September 16, 2019 @11:11PM (#20990997)
It's all just spending though. Tide is trying to get you to pay a little extra for the name brand over the generic. Instead of a Toyota SUV you could have picked up a used beater - or kept driving the car you have for a few more thousand miles. Netflix wants you to shell out extra "discretionary" money to watch some TV shows you don't need to see.

And millions of people do it, because they want to. If it cost money to read a a website, then people might do that too - if they deemed the content worthy of their hard-earned dollars. Millions of people already pony up $1000 for the latest smartphone so they can read stuff online at all hours of the day. I really don't think the web creators should be this worried about whether or not people actually want their stuff. They desperately want it; in fact, most people are probably literally addicted to it.

Of course, maybe you're trying to draw the distinction between paying for a good and voluntarily making a donation. If that's the case, I'm with you - the latter idea is a loser. But if popular websites just made you pay to use them, and the amount was tiny, and the actual process of paying was completely frictionless and unnoticeable in terms of the browsing experience, then people would totally do it. I think a lot of people think they learned this fundamental truth that people don't want to pay for things to read on the internet, when what they really learned is that people don't want to be interrupted and asked for their credit card details. But if you can make that process seamless, people will happily fritter away thousands clicking through links.

Re:100 million dollars to reshape the economics of the web by tripzilch on Saturday September 21, 2019 @04:49AM (#21034233)
> But if popular websites just made you pay to use them, and the amount was tiny, and the actual process of paying was completely frictionless and unnoticeable in terms of the browsing experience, then people would totally do it.

People would maybe do it, but ads wouldn't go away because there's x times more money to be made in the ad business than people micropayments.

Re:100 million dollars to reshape the economics of the web by galaxyLogic on Tuesday September 17, 2019 @02:03AM (#20992080)
I think on demand TV works great, you want to watch a movie hit the remote and the cost will be part of your monthly bill.

If something similar existed for the web it would be great

Re:100 million dollars to reshape the economics of the web by jfim on Tuesday September 17, 2019 @04:41AM (#20992986)
It's highly dependent on implementation. It's too much mental load to determine if that article you just read is worth $0.02 or not.

Brave has a model where creators are automatically tipped, based on usage, which makes more sense imo.

Re:100 million dollars to reshape the economics of the web by Ajedi32 on Tuesday September 17, 2019 @11:21AM (#20996221)
The main issue with Brave's funding model is that it relies on consumer goodwill. While people might be willing to spend $0.02 to read a news article, they're less likely to allocate $10/month to funding online content creators "just because". There has to be some sort of incentive for most people to spend their money; if they can get the same experience for free, only a small minority will ever bother to pay.

So the question is, how do you provide consumers with such an incentive without charging for the content itself (as that can be problematic for the reason you mentioned), without offering "an ad-free experience" for paid users (as Brave blocks ads by default regardless of whether users pay or not), and without requiring users to incur the mental load of trying to decide whether the paid experience is worth it over the free one?

A difficult problem to say the least.

Re:100 million dollars to reshape the economics of the web by galaxyLogic on Wednesday September 18, 2019 @03:21AM (#21003066)
I often hit the free limit on say articles on New York Times and similar sites. After seeing the article title I am often interested enough to click on it to read it. But the count of free articles is full so I can't read the article. Now if it said "If you want to read this article there will be $0.50 charge in your next month's internet bill, I would probably go ahead and click and pay it in the next bill.

Problem is I don't want to open an account with just every possible newspaper and magazine on the web. What is needed is some common mechanism for most if not all content providers.

Maybe $0.50 is too much. Maybe $0.25 would be more like ok.

Re:100 million dollars to reshape the economics of the web by jfim on Wednesday September 18, 2019 @08:14AM (#21004500)
Your point about having a single account is correct, but the sheer amount of decisions when browsing the web would quickly become overwhelming.

Say that in an hour you browse two articles from the NYT, one from the WSJ, five Wikipedia pages, one click on a BuzzFeed listicle, and one blog post from Joe's blog.

Is the NYT article worth $0.50? $0.25? What about the WSJ one? And surely Wikipedia is worth as much as a NYT article. But the BuzzFeed one is definitely worth less. Maybe $0.05? It was moderately entertaining after all. And what about Joe's blog?

Having to do dozens of these micro decisions per hour is exhausting, and is the whole point behind having a system that allocates funding automatically. It's not optimal, but it avoids decision fatigue.

Re:100 million dollars to reshape the economics of the web by galaxyLogic on Thursday September 19, 2019 @11:14PM (#21023024)
I'n thinking that the content-provider obviously would set the price, I would decide whether to click if it is 25 or fifty cents.

I don'think it would be more exhausting than being in a bar and putting coins into the jukebox.

Automatic funding sounds interesting, was it explained in the article somewhere? Or is the point that we should use 100 million to develop a working automatic funding algorithm since no such thing exists yet?

Re:100 million dollars to reshape the economics of the web by volkk on Tuesday September 17, 2019 @09:18AM (#20994667)
why is that different from say...a movie youre going rent on apple TV or in the theater?
Re:100 million dollars to reshape the economics of the web by mcv on Tuesday September 17, 2019 @07:54AM (#20993892)
I think the big thing is trust in the market. Consumers tend to be conservative in which parts of the market they trust. They don't want to pay for something if they have no idea if they're going to get their money's worth. With existing markets, or any market that lots of people are using, people trust that it's okay so they join. With something new, are you going to pay money to access something if you don't know if it's any good? Moving towards free+ads is always easier than towards payment up front.

That said, Netflix is incredibly successful with something new, but that also took years. Netflix worked hard on the reputation that they had the best, most interesting new TV shows that you couldn't get anywhere else. But it takes years to overcome that inertia.

Re:100 million dollars to reshape the economics of the web by wutbrodo on Monday September 16, 2019 @11:14PM (#20991014)
> Tide pods and Toyota SUVs

> eating and driving to work.

This confused me for a second before I realized it was intentional. Good one

Re:100 million dollars to reshape the economics of the web by rjtavares on Tuesday September 17, 2019 @06:13AM (#20993402)
Inserting humour in a HN comment and making it highly upvoted is an artform in itself.
Re:100 million dollars to reshape the economics of the web by danShumway on Tuesday September 17, 2019 @12:09AM (#20991429)
General shoutout to anyone who's less lazy than me: has there been any good research on whether or not advertising increases discretionary spending, and if so by how much?

The Tide example here makes me feel a little bit weird, because Tide pods in particular are a pretty bad deal for laundry detergent. If people are buying Tide pods instead of generic laundry detergent, it seems to me that the advertising isn't just shifting money around, it's actually increasing spending. But it could just be bad instincts, I don't know of any actual real research on the topic.

Another way of phrasing this -- if Apple stopped advertising iPhones, some Apple users would shift over to Android, which (ignoring cost differences) theoretically would just mean they gave the same money to someone else. But would there be another contingent that stayed on iPhone and just stopped buying new hardware every year? How large would a contingent like that be?

Re:100 million dollars to reshape the economics of the web by C4stor on Tuesday September 17, 2019 @11:53AM (#20996690)
A lot of advertising is not meant to increase discretionary spending, but to make you pick product A over product B when the moment comes to choose over alternatives.

At the very basic level of it, advertising is giving out the information that your product exists, because otherwise, nobody would even know its existence.

Your example for Apple is very good, it's very highly probable that some persons only switch to newer iPhones when they hear the news it exists and see the keynotes/articles about it, even though there is nothing wrong with their phone, and they may not be thinking about changing it.

Re:100 million dollars to reshape the economics of the web by Fjolsvith on Saturday September 21, 2019 @04:41PM (#21037816)
> The Tide example here makes me feel a little bit weird, because Tide pods in particular are a pretty bad deal for laundry detergent.

For my wife, the pods are a lifestyle upgrade over the regular powdered pour out detergent. The convenience and effort saved justifies the more expensive packaging.

I'm a firm believer in adopting new processes or products that reduce the amount of time required to perform my daily functions. They pay off in the long run.

Re:100 million dollars to reshape the economics of the web by mcv on Tuesday September 17, 2019 @07:58AM (#20993910)
I think advertising increases discretionary spending, it just redirects it.

When smoking ads were banned, profits for cigarette companies went up, because they didn't have to spend money on marketing anymore. Addicts still kept buying them anyway. Previously, smoking ads were to get people to buy your brand rather than some competing brand.

Re:100 million dollars to reshape the economics of the web by Qworg on Tuesday September 17, 2019 @02:12AM (#20992142)
Here's some of Google's positioning on it - think of it as an arms race: https://www.thinkwithgoogle.com/marketing-resources/micro-mo...
Re:100 million dollars to reshape the economics of the web by OGWhales on Tuesday September 17, 2019 @02:05AM (#20992096)
I’ve always figured they wouldn’t throw so much money at it if it wasn’t working. I assume the advertising makes them massive profits.

I’m sure there are pretty of studies out there.

Re:100 million dollars to reshape the economics of the web by marcus_holmes on Tuesday September 17, 2019 @03:01AM (#20992428)
But for any given business the maths work out differently. Building a dedicated audience in a niche who are willing to pay for a thing directly is easier than wrestling with the advertising industry to try and extract enough ad revenue to keep going.
Re:100 million dollars to reshape the economics of the web by tripzilch on Saturday September 21, 2019 @04:48AM (#21034232)
> no web monetization plan that involves redirecting some of our discretionary spending towards paying websites can make up for the advertising revenue they currently get, because that ad revenue is funded by not only a portion of our discretionary spending, but a portion of ALL our spending, and the non-discretionary portion is much larger.

It kind of sounds like ads are like a pollution on the web, and we should just ban them.

What you describe is a lot like the pollution due to over packaging many products in the food industry. You can say consumers shouldn't buy it, but consumers as an aggregate can't handle that and if you want to solve the problem, it's to put less packaging on the shelves.

Similarly, if what you describe is true (and it sounds true, because how massive the internet ad industry is, indeed to me never seemed to quite add up to what people do online), then no matter what sort of monetization schemes we come up with for Internet content, most industry everywhere is still going to pollute the Internet with ads, simply because the content producers want more money, the consumer doesn't have it, but the industry marketing budgets do.

I think this is partly due to "content producers want more money", because if it's never enough you can wreck any good thing. But the other part is that "the industry" can apparently stuff the Internet full of as many ads as they want without actually being bound by how much the consumer wants to "pay" for the content via ads or (if we figure out micropayments or something) money. Because their spending budget dwarfs that of the consumer.

So, just like I always suspected, all these ads are there because the industry wants to advertise on the Internet, not because it needs to be there to pay for the content.

Content automatically becomes advertising when it exists by the virtue of a marketing budget.

Turns out this whole "your data for our content" deal, that consumers are supposedly choosing for, isn't the relevant transaction at all.

You see pretty much the same problem with outdoor advertising and store front signage. The industry has way more than enough money to spend on advertising to ruin the urban scenery with ads and giant billboards. Where I live we have regulations to keep that in check, but when I go to other countries it's really ugly. It's quite bad in the USA, but at least that country hasn't existed for very long. The saddest thing is in older countries where you see historical buildings being half-obscured or even have the billboards bolted on them. Fortunately due to tourism, there are some regulations.

Anyway, the point is that our Internet is being ruined with ads by the marketing budgets of the industry, not because the ads are necessary to support the content (they never were--there was content on the Internet before advertising, lots of it too), but simply because they have the money to put as much ads as they want onto our Internet.

It reminds me of certain cafes where they play bad commercial radio. You paid for your coffee, to sit there, but you're still subjected to over-loud ads every 15 minutes. This is not because you didn't pay enough for the coffee, it's because whoever paid for that ad has the resources to pollute the soundscape regardless of whether you pay or not.

Re:100 million dollars to reshape the economics of the web by bakuninsbart on Tuesday September 17, 2019 @03:43AM (#20992636)
To add to your argument: Spotify has 206 million users - almost half of which are paid subscribers.[0] This describes exactly the point of contention since free users are financing spotify through ads instead.

I think it is also plausible to assume that among the paid subscribers a higher margin are primary users of spotify for music consumption, while free users have a higher share of secondary users (relying more on vynil, CDs, limewire).

The dark side then again for example are news sites - very few of which seem to be able to finance themselves well via subscription services.

[0]https://www.cnbc.com/2019/04/05/apple-music-has-reportedly-p...

Re:100 million dollars to reshape the economics of the web by cameronbrown on Monday September 16, 2019 @10:19PM (#20990602)
Your argument breaks down when you consider the thing that allows newspaper/web ads to be profitable is the cost of delivery effectively being reduced to zero, whereas a book still has massive printing costs that cannot be scaled as well (thousands of the same books vs. millions of the same newspapers/page views)
Re:100 million dollars to reshape the economics of the web by sebastos on Monday September 16, 2019 @10:24PM (#20990639)
B-b-but what about ebooks?
Re:100 million dollars to reshape the economics of the web by cameronbrown on Wednesday September 18, 2019 @11:56AM (#21006681)
Ebooks are an awful experience both buying and reading.