I think its a sign of the late economic cycle, nothing is cheap and titans have already been established in the last 11 years.

I'd be inclined to hold my money and see what shakes out of the next inevitable market shake up. But then i'm not running softbank for good reasons....

It likely is, but I do wonder how much QE has played into permanently raising the prices of assets.

I won't make that bet, but it could very well be years before something major happens.

So many companies doing IPOs lately, seems to me we are reaching a top. Private money running out, lets go for public.

For tech, yes. But does that mean the whole economy or tech sector goes into a recession? I.e. will the fact that Uber tanks after IPO have an effect on Apple?

2008 was a housing bubble and it cut everyone at the knees.

Housing is a huge component of the US economy. Total value in 2018: $33.3 trillion [1], 1.6x GDP (20.9 trillion) [2].

Tech is about 5% of GDP [3].

[1] https://www.housingwire.com/articles/47847-us-housing-market...

[2] https://www.thebalance.com/u-s-gdp-5-latest-statistics-and-h...

[3] http://www.ianhathaway.org/blog/2017/5/31/how-big-is-the-tec...

You're comparing the total value of all housing to GDP vs. an actual percent of GDP. That's not an apples to apples comparison.

A quick lookup tells me construction is about 4% of GDP. And financing/ancillary services for that construction, if I had to estimate, might make up another 2% at most. Which is pretty close to tech

Yes, but what happened in 2008, and caused the crisis referred to by rapsey, was that housing lost a large fraction of its value. It was not a drop in construction, financing etc that tanked the economy; it was the loss of value, which left a giant hole in balance sheets.

The apples-to-oranges comparison was introduced by rapsey, I merely provided the numbers.

Some real stinkers as well (although some ok ones).

My guess is that Uber will be the poster child that kills this IPO season or at least comes to define it.

>I think its a sign of the late economic cycle

Agree but I think this late cycle period still has a few more years to go.

Half of that fund belongs to Saudi Arabia which almost never gets mentioned: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-softbank-vision-loan-excl...

They have a lot of money and already own sizeable positions in the tech sector. Finding companies that are large enough to make it worth investing while not increasing concentration doesn't leave many options for them.