Re:SoftBank to invest over $1B in German payment company Wir...
by charlesdm on Wednesday April 24, 2019 @10:33AM
(#19738716)
It likely is, but I do wonder how much QE has played into permanently raising the prices of assets.
I won't make that bet, but it could very well be years before something major happens.
Re:SoftBank to invest over $1B in German payment company Wir...
by rapsey on Wednesday April 24, 2019 @10:47AM
(#19738849)
So many companies doing IPOs lately, seems to me we are reaching a top. Private money running out, lets go for public.
Re:SoftBank to invest over $1B in German payment company Wir...
by charlesdm on Wednesday April 24, 2019 @11:20AM
(#19739256)
For tech, yes. But does that mean the whole economy or tech sector goes into a recession? I.e. will the fact that Uber tanks after IPO have an effect on Apple?
Re:SoftBank to invest over $1B in German payment company Wir...
by rapsey on Wednesday April 24, 2019 @11:42AM
(#19739506)
2008 was a housing bubble and it cut everyone at the knees.
Re:SoftBank to invest over $1B in German payment company Wir...
by T-A on Wednesday April 24, 2019 @01:12PM
(#19740540)
Housing is a huge component of the US economy. Total value in 2018: $33.3 trillion [1], 1.6x GDP (20.9 trillion) [2].
Tech is about 5% of GDP [3].
[1] https://www.housingwire.com/articles/47847-us-housing-market...
[2] https://www.thebalance.com/u-s-gdp-5-latest-statistics-and-h...
[3] http://www.ianhathaway.org/blog/2017/5/31/how-big-is-the-tec...
Re:SoftBank to invest over $1B in German payment company Wir...
by opportune on Wednesday April 24, 2019 @04:14PM
(#19742174)
You're comparing the total value of all housing to GDP vs. an actual percent of GDP. That's not an apples to apples comparison.
A quick lookup tells me construction is about 4% of GDP. And financing/ancillary services for that construction, if I had to estimate, might make up another 2% at most. Which is pretty close to tech
Re:SoftBank to invest over $1B in German payment company Wir...
by T-A on Wednesday April 24, 2019 @07:07PM
(#19743406)
Yes, but what happened in 2008, and caused the crisis referred to by rapsey, was that housing lost a large fraction of its value. It was not a drop in construction, financing etc that tanked the economy; it was the loss of value, which left a giant hole in balance sheets.
The apples-to-oranges comparison was introduced by rapsey, I merely provided the numbers.
I'd be inclined to hold my money and see what shakes out of the next inevitable market shake up. But then i'm not running softbank for good reasons....