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Re:Many Bitcoin Miners Are at Risk of Turning Unprofitable by ctime on Wednesday April 18, 2018 @09:26AM (#16867172)
What a colossally stupid waste of resources. Right now its costing somewhere between ~3500 and ~9000 USD to mine a single bitcoin (on average). To me, we've essentially engineered a mechanism to capture and trade something that represents the value of squandered electricity.

1) we're generating a ton of co2, further destabilizing the planet ecosystem 2) if we ever _do_ sort out cold fusion energy, crytoholes are going to abuse the shit out of it.

I feel like cryptocurrency and perhaps nuclear weapons are a built in 'kill switch' by nature to make sure only useful species ever get off the planet.

Re:Many Bitcoin Miners Are at Risk of Turning Unprofitable by calchris42 on Wednesday April 18, 2018 @11:30AM (#16868152)
Exactly this.

Bitcoin as it stands is the definition of inefficient. Consuming vast amounts of energy for no purpose. Yes, there are ever-changing explanatiins for Bitcoin's usefulness. But there is no fundamental reason why massive energy consumption is required to store digital value, or to make a transaction across borders.

As it stands, Bitcoin is actively bad for the world. We need more energy efficiency, not get rich schemes combined with electric heating for empty warehouses.

There are likely good uses that will come from crypto tech, but this doesn't seem to be it. (And I'm not knowledgeable enough to guess what they will be)

Re:Many Bitcoin Miners Are at Risk of Turning Unprofitable by AnIdiotOnTheNet on Wednesday April 18, 2018 @11:13AM (#16868021)
I think it is kind of funny, in a tragic sort of way, that just when humanity is coming around to the idea that climate change is real, someone goes and invents a get-rich-quick scheme that involves burning large amounts of electricity.
Re:Many Bitcoin Miners Are at Risk of Turning Unprofitable by tzakrajs on Wednesday April 18, 2018 @03:38PM (#16870365)
The flip-side is that it is increasing demand for solar, wind and geo power.
Re:Many Bitcoin Miners Are at Risk of Turning Unprofitable by gdulli on Wednesday April 18, 2018 @11:22AM (#16868093)
At the end of the day there's greed and inefficiency in the existing banking system and there's greed and inefficiency in crypto banking systems and there's going to be greed and inefficiency in any subsequent banking system. Turns out that greed and inefficiency were part of us the whole time. The devil we know doesn't seem so bad when you see it in perspective.
Re:Many Bitcoin Miners Are at Risk of Turning Unprofitable by paulgb on Wednesday April 18, 2018 @11:29AM (#16868141)
There's no comparison here. The world financial system may have inefficiencies, but competition will sort them out over time. In POW crypto-currencies, efficiency improvements will be canceled out as quickly as the next difficulty adjustment. In POW, by design, competition leads to more inefficiency, not less.
Re:Many Bitcoin Miners Are at Risk of Turning Unprofitable by loceng on Wednesday April 18, 2018 @11:28AM (#16868135)
Luckily we can design systems that aren't influenced by greed, and are as efficient as technology allows. I'm seeing greed more and more as a battle between short-term vs. long-term thinking, selfish vs. holistic.
Re:Many Bitcoin Miners Are at Risk of Turning Unprofitable by placebo on Wednesday April 18, 2018 @01:12PM (#16869039)
I agree with selfish vs. holostic, less so with short-term vs. long-term. You could have someone doing the long con and in my book they are just as greedy as the short con. Better at deferred gratification perhaps, but just as greedy.
Re:Many Bitcoin Miners Are at Risk of Turning Unprofitable by loceng on Wednesday April 18, 2018 @07:17PM (#16872103)
Fair point. Love the username.
Re:Many Bitcoin Miners Are at Risk of Turning Unprofitable by maxerickson on Wednesday April 18, 2018 @09:27AM (#16867182)
Squandered electricity has no value, bitcoin are not imbued with any value from the mining process, their value is strictly a function of what someone is willing to pay for them.

(I imagine you agree, but clarity is useful)

Re:Many Bitcoin Miners Are at Risk of Turning Unprofitable by simias on Wednesday April 18, 2018 @09:37AM (#16867245)
There is a relation though, although admittedly it's the other way around: the more expensive bitcoins are the most money can be invested into the mining process which correlates strongly with the total amount of energy "wasted" mining it. If BTC was worth $4 the hash rate would probably be a tiny fraction of what it is today.
Re:Many Bitcoin Miners Are at Risk of Turning Unprofitable by bob_theslob646 on Wednesday April 18, 2018 @09:35AM (#16867233)
I think he/she misspoke about what they meant by "squandered electricity."

I think what they were referring to is how electricity is allocated or stored. Currently, we cannot do so effectively. It is ironic that Bitcoin is being referred to as a store of value.

I would hesitate to say that squandered electricity has very little value but it is all dependent on what your definition of value is, potential or realized.

Re:Many Bitcoin Miners Are at Risk of Turning Unprofitable by maxerickson on Wednesday April 18, 2018 @09:39AM (#16867274)
Squandered electricity is like burning cash. It's obvious waste. Hesitate all you want.

Note that chemical batteries and pumped storage hydroelectric both store large amounts of electricity very effectively (there lots and lots of deployments that were done by commercial interests seeking to improve the economics of their operations, some going back decades).

Re:Many Bitcoin Miners Are at Risk of Turning Unprofitable by marvin on Wednesday April 18, 2018 @10:36AM (#16867703)
Burning cash is a poor analogy, apart from the destruction of the physical paper (which is very cheap). Burning cash causes a small amount of deflation, which increases everyone else's fortune a tiny amount, but does not waste any human effort.

A better analogy would be digging a hole and filling it up again. Or maybe better, causing a small amount of destruction to something that other people value.

Re:Many Bitcoin Miners Are at Risk of Turning Unprofitable by hn0 on Wednesday April 18, 2018 @12:17PM (#16868571)
So if I take a truckload of 100$ bills, a bottle of gin and a can of gasoline, drive into the dessert, out of sight of the authorities, and burn the entire lot, then the next night all retailers will have a vision which tells them to lower their average prices by 0.573%?
Re:Many Bitcoin Miners Are at Risk of Turning Unprofitable by marvin on Thursday April 19, 2018 @06:50AM (#16874775)
It's a hypothetical point; a small reduction in money supply will affect prices far less than the uncertainty or random fluctuation in the measurement of prices.
Re:Many Bitcoin Miners Are at Risk of Turning Unprofitable by BoiledCabbage on Wednesday April 18, 2018 @01:33PM (#16869219)
Is this comment sarcastic? I can't tell.

The money supply affects prices. It's basic econ.

Re:Many Bitcoin Miners Are at Risk of Turning Unprofitable by vageli on Wednesday April 18, 2018 @02:34PM (#16869762)
How fast does a change made by a private actor to the money supply propagate? Surely not instantaneously?
Re:Many Bitcoin Miners Are at Risk of Turning Unprofitable by marcosdumay on Wednesday April 18, 2018 @03:13PM (#16870129)
By the time you fill your truck with those $100 bills, the prices will have already adjusted. If you decide to not burn them, but spend them quickly, the prices will adjust again.
Re:Many Bitcoin Miners Are at Risk of Turning Unprofitable by craftyguy on Wednesday April 18, 2018 @12:00PM (#16868413)
> causing a small amount of destruction to something that other people value.

Yea, like the environment.

Re:Many Bitcoin Miners Are at Risk of Turning Unprofitable by hinkley on Wednesday April 18, 2018 @12:10PM (#16868498)
We were “storing” that electricity as natural gas or coal until someone fired up more bitcoin miners and someone else adjusted production upward to keep the power lines steady.
Re:Many Bitcoin Miners Are at Risk of Turning Unprofitable by wufufufu on Wednesday April 18, 2018 @10:36AM (#16867707)
Bitcoin miners work fine as heaters too
Re:Many Bitcoin Miners Are at Risk of Turning Unprofitable by criddell on Wednesday April 18, 2018 @09:35AM (#16867235)
Bitcoins are sooooo 2017. I'm thinking about liquidating my hodlings and moving into tulips.
Re:Many Bitcoin Miners Are at Risk of Turning Unprofitable by jonnydubowsky on Wednesday April 18, 2018 @09:52AM (#16867371)
Bitcoin is the single largest coordination of encryption in history, and this delivers a store of value which cannot be seized. This has incredible value to those who already utilize offshore banking havens and complex legal coordination mechanisms to protect their wealth. Within a growing number of use cases, bitcoin via the lightning network provides access to financial services to the unbanked who are able to also establish their self soverign identity. To those individuals these edge cases are incredibly valuable.
Re:Many Bitcoin Miners Are at Risk of Turning Unprofitable by maxerickson on Wednesday April 18, 2018 @10:08AM (#16867491)
>Bitcoin is the single largest coordination of encryption in history

What is that supposed to mean? Blockchain isn't encrypted. It's secured with cryptographic hashes of course.

>and this delivers a store of value which cannot be seized.

Make sure to watch what happens when/if the US government and China have both decided it is a problem worth much attention.

Re:Many Bitcoin Miners Are at Risk of Turning Unprofitable by majewsky on Wednesday April 18, 2018 @10:01AM (#16867441)
> a store of value which cannot be seized

Police can absolutely seize the physical artifacts on which your wallet resides. And if that storage is encrypted, consider https://www.xkcd.com/538/ - You may not be able to seize the bitcoins, but you can absolutely seize the person owning them.

Re:Many Bitcoin Miners Are at Risk of Turning Unprofitable by downandout on Wednesday April 18, 2018 @10:09AM (#16867503)
>Police can absolutely seize the physical artifacts on which your wallet resides.

They have to find it first, which can be easy or difficult, depending on how motivated you are to make it difficult. You can quite easily make it more difficult than it is for them to walk into a bank and say “freeze this account”.

Re:Many Bitcoin Miners Are at Risk of Turning Unprofitable by balls187 on Wednesday April 18, 2018 @11:21AM (#16868082)
Difficult, but not impossible

A US judge ordering a person to turn over their BTC wallet would be check.

Re:Many Bitcoin Miners Are at Risk of Turning Unprofitable by downandout on Wednesday April 18, 2018 @01:06PM (#16868999)
Yeah, but if they can't get to it before you are aware of what's going on (as is the case with most asset seizures) then you can deal with the situation first. For example, a judge issues an order for you to turn over the private keys, and jails you until you decide to comply. Someone you trust that has access to the private keys transfers funds out of that wallet, then you turn over the private key. You have complied with the order to turn over the keys, and you have deniability ("someone must have seen news of my arrest in the press and broken into my storage shed...the one you guys didn't check...where the keys were stored!").
Re:Many Bitcoin Miners Are at Risk of Turning Unprofitable by balls187 on Wednesday April 18, 2018 @02:16PM (#16869594)
Judges don't like it when individuals attempt to circumvent their authority.
Re:Many Bitcoin Miners Are at Risk of Turning Unprofitable by downandout on Wednesday April 18, 2018 @04:52PM (#16871073)
And private citizens don’t like it when judges order their money to be taken without warning or consent. I was just saying that crypto gives people options that might enable them to maintain more control over the situation than they would have if their money is just sitting in a bank.
Re:Many Bitcoin Miners Are at Risk of Turning Unprofitable by balls187 on Wednesday April 18, 2018 @08:24PM (#16872423)
Do judges seize property without a legal reason?

Certainly the police seize property citing dubious reasons, but are there examples of judges seizing financial assets without legal authority to do so?

Police can use civil forfeiture to seize property; but can't use civil forfeiture laws to compel you to give up your gmail password. That requires a court order/warrant. Hence the original comment about a judge could compel you into turning over your BTC Wallet.

Re:Many Bitcoin Miners Are at Risk of Turning Unprofitable by downandout on Thursday April 19, 2018 @12:23AM (#16873316)
Do judges seize property without a legal reason?

Whether the reason is valid or not doesn’t matter much to the target of such an order. They still lose access to their funds. People who care about that possibility may want to take steps to make it more difficult for someone to do this to them. That’s all I was saying.

Re:Many Bitcoin Miners Are at Risk of Turning Unprofitable by balls187 on Thursday April 19, 2018 @02:42AM (#16873825)
Okay, thank you for the clarification, I understand your point better.
Re:Many Bitcoin Miners Are at Risk of Turning Unprofitable by Daishiman on Wednesday April 18, 2018 @08:30PM (#16872460)
Private citizens aren't above the law, tough guy.
Re:Many Bitcoin Miners Are at Risk of Turning Unprofitable by downandout on Thursday April 19, 2018 @12:14AM (#16873287)
As a practical matter, they are if their encryption can’t be broken.
Re:Many Bitcoin Miners Are at Risk of Turning Unprofitable by Daishiman on Thursday April 19, 2018 @05:48PM (#16880476)
As a practical matter, you get held in contempt of court until you decrypt stuff, and God help you if you're in the UK where they can hold people if they have a suspicion that you're hiding something.
Re:Many Bitcoin Miners Are at Risk of Turning Unprofitable by conanbatt on Wednesday April 18, 2018 @04:55PM (#16871103)
That is fundamentally unenforceable...as much as ordering someone to turn over cash.
Re:Many Bitcoin Miners Are at Risk of Turning Unprofitable by balls187 on Wednesday April 18, 2018 @08:36PM (#16872482)
> That is fundamentally unenforceable...as much as ordering someone to turn over cash.

Defying the courts authority is Contempt of Court. If you fail to comply with a judges order, that can lead to incarceration. Continue to defy, can lead to criminal incarceration.

Re:Many Bitcoin Miners Are at Risk of Turning Unprofitable by conanbatt on Wednesday April 18, 2018 @11:42PM (#16873167)
Sure but its unenforceable. You can even kill someone but not get their cash/bitcoin.
Re:Many Bitcoin Miners Are at Risk of Turning Unprofitable by majewsky on Wednesday April 18, 2018 @05:33PM (#16871418)
Good to know that civil forfeiture does not exist. /s
Re:Many Bitcoin Miners Are at Risk of Turning Unprofitable by conanbatt on Wednesday April 18, 2018 @11:55PM (#16873221)
Civil forfeiture can't confiscate cash they don't know where it is.
Re:Many Bitcoin Miners Are at Risk of Turning Unprofitable by rufugee on Wednesday April 18, 2018 @10:18AM (#16867561)
Honestly not sure why you're being downvoted here. Your point seems reasonable and true based on how easy it is to create a paper wallet and make that paper sheet all but unfindable.
Re:Many Bitcoin Miners Are at Risk of Turning Unprofitable by downandout on Wednesday April 18, 2018 @10:46AM (#16867794)
Maybe they’re fans of asset seizures :).
Re:Many Bitcoin Miners Are at Risk of Turning Unprofitable by BoiledCabbage on Wednesday April 18, 2018 @01:44PM (#16869316)
Reading this sounds like a cult. Outside of politics, I don't think I've experienced so much groupthink and unreasoned responses as I have w.r.t Bitcoin.

And it seems like anytime it's challenged or perceived as threatened it's almost a copy paste of the exact same content as above completely ignoring the original poster's comments.

Crypto or distributed banking may be a useful concept, but Bitcoin is horrible to the world. Energy is one of the single most important and fundamental resources. To get really theoretical this hold from the cellular level all the way up to societal. We are burning and trashing a significant portuon of society's energy to run a simplistic financial network. And this percentage will only grow, and it's built into the system that it must be wasted.

Bitcoin is our first planet level grey goo, and we're somehow still arguing about it. 30% of our planet's energy cannot go to running a simple financial network, it's ludicrous.

Other than governments stepping in and banning it, what will prevent that?

Re:Many Bitcoin Miners Are at Risk of Turning Unprofitable by jchrisa on Wednesday April 18, 2018 @11:25AM (#16868116)
By definition it can only get worse or fail. The amount of energy spent defending the blockchain must be proportionately more than the amount of value stored on the blockchain. So if we organized the entire human economy on bitcoin, we'd spend 51% of our total global economy on energy to burn running the currency.
Re:Many Bitcoin Miners Are at Risk of Turning Unprofitable by esrauch on Wednesday April 18, 2018 @12:59PM (#16868934)
Isn't it just the cost to mint a new coin that has to be proportional? As in, it can cost more than a cent to make a penny but each penny is used in more than one transaction.

I understand that the transaction cost is also quite high with Bitcoin but that isn't intrinsically necessary (like the cost to mint is).

Re:Many Bitcoin Miners Are at Risk of Turning Unprofitable by sowbug on Wednesday April 18, 2018 @09:22PM (#16872648)
You're going to need to show your math for that one. It's somewhat similar to the argument that you can't put a value on a human life, therefore [insert position] is unassailable.
Re:Many Bitcoin Miners Are at Risk of Turning Unprofitable by dlwdlw on Wednesday April 18, 2018 @11:58AM (#16868388)
Burning of "real" value for something of symbolic value that often locks in value is fairly common. Designer watches and bags and 500$ shirts basically create a flame that says "look at meeeeee"

Price to extract gold and value of gold is also an interesting dynamic. Fiat tokens also seem to have value built in via trust via the burning of value to create organizational systems to reduce friction. Expensive apparel also reduces certain types of social friction.

Re:Many Bitcoin Miners Are at Risk of Turning Unprofitable by skybrian on Wednesday April 18, 2018 @11:41AM (#16868254)
If it's any comfort, electricity isn't all the same. It's more valuable if generated at the right place at the right time.

At some point, after hardware improvements plateau and competition heats up even more, this turns into a competition to find the cheapest electricity. In a ideal electricity market, this should be surplus electricity that's not used for any other purpose yet (wind farm not yet connected to the grid). Or perhaps generating bitcoin as a byproduct of electric heating? Any better use for electricity should result in higher prices that make Bitcoin mining unprofitable.

But before that happens, the electricity market would have to get a lot more rational, and externalities need to be fixed. For example, carbon pricing would ensure that bitcoin mining only uses clean power.

Re:Many Bitcoin Miners Are at Risk of Turning Unprofitable by VMG on Wednesday April 18, 2018 @09:35AM (#16867236)
How do you define waste?

Is bitcoin mining more wasteful than gold mining?

Re:Many Bitcoin Miners Are at Risk of Turning Unprofitable by hn0 on Wednesday April 18, 2018 @12:26PM (#16868656)
In the current economic system new national currency is created through 3 ways. 1. By banks when they extend a loan (likewise it gets destroyed upon repayment) 2. By the government when it deficit spends into the economy (destroyed through taxation) 3. By converting foreign currency through running an export surplus (ejected by import surplus)

It is worth noting that appart from printing actual dollar bills (typically <5% of total money) the production cost (“seigniorage”) is effectively infinitesimal.

So yes, both gold and bitcoin are stupendously wasteful when your goal is to create currency for transactions. But at least in the case of gold the material is useful and you can use it to diversify your asset stock.

Re:Many Bitcoin Miners Are at Risk of Turning Unprofitable by _ph_ on Wednesday April 18, 2018 @09:54AM (#16867387)
Correct me if I am wrong, but my understanding is, that it is not the mining itself which creates the bitcoin, but an arbitrary challenge set up to earn the bitcoins. So by definition, any energy used is completely wasted.
Re:Many Bitcoin Miners Are at Risk of Turning Unprofitable by sp332 on Wednesday April 18, 2018 @10:15AM (#16867539)
That's right, the difficulty adjusts to match the level of competition so that a bitcoin block is mined on average once every ten minutes. If fewer people were competing or if they competed with less powerful hardware, the network would adjust and the same amount of bitcoins would be mined. Increasing your hash power increases your odds of getting that block though.

But when bitcoin prices are high, there is an increased risk that someone could launch a 51% attack and start double-spending bitcoins. Keeping the level of competition high does protect the network to some extent. But really it only has to be expensive enough to be unprofitable to launch an attack. Pushing difficulty right up to the point of any mining being unprofitable is a waste.

Re:Many Bitcoin Miners Are at Risk of Turning Unprofitable by paulmd on Wednesday April 18, 2018 @05:17PM (#16871272)
(to concur with your point:)

People tend to think of the rewards as set in stone, but they're completely arbitrary (they just have to be agreed-upon by participants). For example, there's no need for them to taper off over time, we could keep them constant.

It's just a question of what you can get consensus for. The geometrically-decreasing rewards of Bitcoin are probably not optimal, but without centralized control there has to be some kind of pre-determined issue rate.

We could just as easily agree to halve them right now (which would probably reduce electricity utilization as well as network security, as miners go offline). And that's essentially what Ethereum is planning to do - a major decrease in block rewards in the near future, so that they can create deflation (dumb as hell, but that's what happens when you let a 17-year-old run an economy, he has big holdings of Eth and just wants to see the number go up).

Re:Many Bitcoin Miners Are at Risk of Turning Unprofitable by sp332 on Wednesday April 18, 2018 @05:29PM (#16871370)
Yeah, I think a decreasing block reward was a good idea, but I think it's on the wrong schedule. Following something like Metcalfe's Law, the value increases geometrically but the reward isn't decaying fast enough yet. That means at some point in the "middle", the value of the block reward will be increasing much faster than the amount of the reward is decreasing.

https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=n%5E2+%2F+(2%5En)+from...

That's where we are now, and it means the reward will be large enough to drive bad behavior at least until the next halving (probably two years from now http://www.bitcoinblockhalf.com/ ).

Re:Many Bitcoin Miners Are at Risk of Turning Unprofitable by paulmd on Wednesday April 18, 2018 @05:41PM (#16871476)
The whole idea of discrete halvings of the block rewards at specific block heights also grinds me in general... why is this not a continuous function? Oh yeah, because that's how some guy set it up in 2012 before he disappeared.
Re:Many Bitcoin Miners Are at Risk of Turning Unprofitable by Klathmon on Wednesday April 18, 2018 @09:58AM (#16867415)
Just because the challenge is arbitrary doesn't mean the effort is wasted.

By that logic all of human sports and entertainment is completely wasted effort/power.

Re:Many Bitcoin Miners Are at Risk of Turning Unprofitable by lokedhs on Wednesday April 18, 2018 @11:43PM (#16873170)
It is. But the difference is that people's jogging runs and workout sessions don't typically create CO emissions on the scale of entire countries.
Re:Many Bitcoin Miners Are at Risk of Turning Unprofitable by wyldfire on Wednesday April 18, 2018 @10:22AM (#16867599)
> it is not the mining itself which creates the bitcoin

It is the hashing power of the mining which secures the bitcoin. It's nigh impossible to steal / double spend, and this is pretty revolutionary IMO.

That said, proof-of-stake and other options exist that might also provide adequate security while posing a smaller cost to the network.

Re:Many Bitcoin Miners Are at Risk of Turning Unprofitable by ska on Wednesday April 18, 2018 @11:18AM (#16868067)
That "might" is doing a lot of work. None of those options are really options yet (if ever).
Re:Many Bitcoin Miners Are at Risk of Turning Unprofitable by wufufufu on Wednesday April 18, 2018 @10:32AM (#16867675)
Gold mining is wasteful also but it's not fundamentally necessary for gold to exist.

I think the problem with bitcoin waste is that it's proportional to how valuable it is.

Re:Many Bitcoin Miners Are at Risk of Turning Unprofitable by cookingrobot on Wednesday April 18, 2018 @11:08AM (#16867963)
Gold only has to be mined once, bitcoin has to be mined every time it changes hands.
Re:Many Bitcoin Miners Are at Risk of Turning Unprofitable by pc2g4d on Wednesday April 18, 2018 @01:02PM (#16868959)
I don't think that's strictly true. When the last bitcoin is issued, "mining" per se will cease. But "miners" will still be rewarded by transaction fees.
Re:Many Bitcoin Miners Are at Risk of Turning Unprofitable by chuckkir on Wednesday April 18, 2018 @01:16PM (#16869085)
A distinction without a difference.
Re:Many Bitcoin Miners Are at Risk of Turning Unprofitable by VMG on Wednesday April 18, 2018 @04:20PM (#16870799)
You can send an arbitrary about of Bitcoin in an on-chain transaction. Payment channels also allow you to send Bitcoin off-chain.
Re:Many Bitcoin Miners Are at Risk of Turning Unprofitable by rm_-rf_slash on Wednesday April 18, 2018 @11:23AM (#16868105)
The computer you used to post this comment uses gold.
Re:Many Bitcoin Miners Are at Risk of Turning Unprofitable by mancerayder on Wednesday April 18, 2018 @01:10PM (#16869028)
Sure, but electronics and other industrial uses for gold are a small percentage of its demand. The demand for those two are 9.1 and 6.2 percent in 2017, respectively, according to Statista. The same stats attribute more than 50% to jewelry.
Re:Many Bitcoin Miners Are at Risk of Turning Unprofitable by rm_-rf_slash on Wednesday April 18, 2018 @04:47PM (#16871033)
By volume even 15% is still a shit ton of gold.
Re:Many Bitcoin Miners Are at Risk of Turning Unprofitable by nkarpov on Wednesday April 18, 2018 @11:27AM (#16868134)
My guess is that the increase of employment per increase of gold mined is higher than the increase of employment per increase of bitcoin mined.
Re:Many Bitcoin Miners Are at Risk of Turning Unprofitable by paulgb on Wednesday April 18, 2018 @11:36AM (#16868210)
I think you're not wrong, but I can't help being reminded of the broken window parable https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Parable_of_the_broken_window
Re:Many Bitcoin Miners Are at Risk of Turning Unprofitable by nkarpov on Wednesday April 18, 2018 @12:40PM (#16868782)
I can roughly see the relationship but not smart enough to see immediately what it means without more thought. FWIW AFAIU the broken window parable is itself not without controversy.
Re:Many Bitcoin Miners Are at Risk of Turning Unprofitable by VMG on Wednesday April 18, 2018 @04:17PM (#16870773)
Doesn't that make it more wasteful? Those people could be doing something more useful
Re:Many Bitcoin Miners Are at Risk of Turning Unprofitable by nkarpov on Wednesday April 18, 2018 @05:09PM (#16871212)
Well you've flipped now to discussing the definition of useful, no?

First, gold is plenty useful outside value store: only ~30% of new gold per year is used for investment (this is per GS in 2015, I believe, and this is unlikely to have changed significantly one way or the other, pls feel free to correct me). The majority of remaining is used in mainly in jewelry & electronics (again per same source).

Second, on its way to providing for the point above, it employs hundreds of thousands of people full time that take that money to spend, save, invest aka. it works in the economy.

I'm not saying that bitcoin can't function like this or some similar way in the future, but it's a fact that it doesn't right now, and per this criteria I would say it's both more wasteful & less useful than gold. Bitcoin is simply plugged into your outlet right now and quite literally wasting energy unless you're using it to heat your home. That people have assigned value to the record of energy being spent is a separate phenomenon IMO.

Re:Many Bitcoin Miners Are at Risk of Turning Unprofitable by paulmd on Thursday April 19, 2018 @02:13AM (#16873706)
I've always found it hilarious that block rewards are the literal definition of Keynesian stimulus - "burying money in bottles in the desert and paying people to dig it up". Early-stage cryptocurrencies are effectively economies where near-100% of employment rests on government employment.

People just think it's totally different, because this time they are the government. And because cryptocurrency is so steeped in libertarian ideology, they are unable to acknowledge any of the lessons of traditional economics, and are thus doomed to repeat its mistakes (eg: deflationary/hyperdeflationary currencies).

As a form of Keynesian stimulus, it's totally possible for block rewards to represent a net positive gain of economic activity as they "prime the pump". Gold mining is probably quite mechanized nowadays, so I wouldn't really care to guess which is more efficient at translating stimulus into economic activity, though.

Re:Many Bitcoin Miners Are at Risk of Turning Unprofitable by friesen on Wednesday April 18, 2018 @09:39AM (#16867271)
You can make things with gold.
Re:Many Bitcoin Miners Are at Risk of Turning Unprofitable by mkagenius on Wednesday April 18, 2018 @09:43AM (#16867296)
You can buy gold with bitcoins. We should be aware of any unstable direct effect caused by bitcoins/gold no matter how useful the end product is.
Re:Many Bitcoin Miners Are at Risk of Turning Unprofitable by hinkley on Wednesday April 18, 2018 @12:19PM (#16868586)
But gold has a use other than for trade.

If a bitcoin replacement were built on, say, folding proteins, then the information gathered has a benefit that outlasts the value of the currency.

Bitcoin only accomplishes two things: burn dinosaurs and slowly erode the usefulness of SHA2.

Maybe it improves the situation for ASIC manufacturers? I dunno. But gold improves the situation of wheelbarrow and shovel manufacturers just as much.

Re:Many Bitcoin Miners Are at Risk of Turning Unprofitable by VMG on Wednesday April 18, 2018 @04:21PM (#16870807)
Most of it sits in vaults.
Re:Many Bitcoin Miners Are at Risk of Turning Unprofitable by samastur on Wednesday April 18, 2018 @09:40AM (#16867277)
Does it need to be? Can only one be wasteful?

This sounds very close to whataboutism.

Re:Many Bitcoin Miners Are at Risk of Turning Unprofitable by conanbatt on Wednesday April 18, 2018 @10:39AM (#16867728)
Wow, bitcoin got so big by now that people believe it can wipe out human race.
Re:Many Bitcoin Miners Are at Risk of Turning Unprofitable by stu432 on Wednesday April 18, 2018 @11:14AM (#16868033)
Easter Island mk2!
Re:Many Bitcoin Miners Are at Risk of Turning Unprofitable by rufugee on Wednesday April 18, 2018 @10:21AM (#16867579)
It is a waste of resources. I do agree with you. The good news, I suppose, is that all possible the bitcoins will be eventually mined (https://www.investopedia.com/news/what-happens-bitcoin-after...). At that point, it will likely be transaction fees that drive the economy, not mining.
Re:Many Bitcoin Miners Are at Risk of Turning Unprofitable by rtkwe on Wednesday April 18, 2018 @10:46AM (#16867789)
That's incorrect. Mining will still be required it just means instead of block rewards driving miners it'll be transaction fees. Bitcoin will never not require miners because they provide the entire validation/verification process for transactions.
Re:Many Bitcoin Miners Are at Risk of Turning Unprofitable by jobigoud on Wednesday April 18, 2018 @11:34AM (#16868189)
I think the confusion is because the mining analogy makes people think miners mine Bitcoins, when they actually mine blocks.
Re:Many Bitcoin Miners Are at Risk of Turning Unprofitable by sadgit on Wednesday April 18, 2018 @10:25AM (#16867625)
And whos going to create the blocks? It's still mining. However, tx fees might not be enough to pay for security in the network.
Re:Many Bitcoin Miners Are at Risk of Turning Unprofitable by rufugee on Wednesday April 18, 2018 @10:34AM (#16867689)
I didn't think of it that way, but you are very correct.
Re:Many Bitcoin Miners Are at Risk of Turning Unprofitable by wufufufu on Wednesday April 18, 2018 @10:29AM (#16867654)
It irks me that the wastefulness of bitcoin is proportional to how valuable it is, and I don't think that changes even when miners are only competing for transaction fees.

edit: Waste might even be exponentially proportional to bitcoin value...?

Re:Many Bitcoin Miners Are at Risk of Turning Unprofitable by nokcha on Wednesday April 18, 2018 @10:45AM (#16867776)
In economic equilibrium, the world-wide energy cost to mine one block would be approximately equal to the revenue from mining the block (transactions fees + newly generated bitcoins).
Re:Many Bitcoin Miners Are at Risk of Turning Unprofitable by cslarson on Wednesday April 18, 2018 @10:26AM (#16867633)
There will still be mining, just no block reward. The "payment" would instead be solely from transaction fees.
Re:Many Bitcoin Miners Are at Risk of Turning Unprofitable by andruby on Wednesday April 18, 2018 @11:09AM (#16867977)
If we make the transactions more efficient, lowering the fees, we might remove the huge incentive to mine so much. That would be great.
Re:Many Bitcoin Miners Are at Risk of Turning Unprofitable by paulmd on Wednesday April 18, 2018 @05:21PM (#16871305)
This is nonsensical and wrong. Transactions aren't what causes energy consumption in Bitcoin, you can process all the transactions in the whole Bitcoin or Ethereum network on a Raspberry Pi. It's the proof-of-work hashing that makes Bitcoin energy-inefficient, and that's purely a make-work problem, just a way to make mining arbitrarily difficult so the block times hit the expected average.

The problem with scaling to larger numbers of transactions is that block sizes become bigger and it takes more disk space and bandwidth to run a node. But, the bigger we make them, the more transaction fees there are, so incentives for miners would actually go up.

(very marginally so - block rewards are like 100x as high as the transaction fees, which actually leads some miners to not include transactions at all - trading off a 1% lower payout for faster propagation times and an increased chance of "winning" if they successfully mine a block at nearly the same time as another miner)

Re:Many Bitcoin Miners Are at Risk of Turning Unprofitable by andruby on Thursday April 19, 2018 @09:28AM (#16875713)
Maybe I wasn't clear in my original message. I meant that with lower block rewards and lower transaction fees (through lightning and other advances), the total reward for mining would go down, removing the incentive for the large number of mining operations.

On the large scale, I don't see mining efficiency affecting total bitcoin power usage, but I do see rewards impacting it. (higher BTC price => higher economic incentive to mine => more investments in mining operations => more power usage)

I think a lower bitcoin Hashrate would actually be a good thing (for power consumption and pollution)

Re:Many Bitcoin Miners Are at Risk of Turning Unprofitable by TeMPOraL on Wednesday April 18, 2018 @12:14PM (#16868538)
Bitcoin is entirely arbitrary. Given that the concept of cryptocurrency (as a get-rich-quick scheme) has been proven, there's nothing stopping people from creating another one. And then another, and another, and another. The problem really is with the whole concept of cryptocurrencies.
Re:Many Bitcoin Miners Are at Risk of Turning Unprofitable by wellboy on Wednesday April 18, 2018 @11:39AM (#16868236)
This doesn't matter, PoW (achieving consensus through mining power) is becoming obsolete.

Ethereum is moving to a PoW PoS hybrid (Casper) which uses a lot less energy and so are most of the new cryptocurrencies.

It's possible that bitcoin will soon, too.

Re:Many Bitcoin Miners Are at Risk of Turning Unprofitable by paulmd on Wednesday April 18, 2018 @05:25PM (#16871337)
I'm not aware of any cryptocurrency that has successfully implemented a decentralized PoS system. There have been a few that have "master keys" to sign blocks, however.
Re:Many Bitcoin Miners Are at Risk of Turning Unprofitable by onecooldev24 on Wednesday April 18, 2018 @11:43AM (#16868271)
Have you been sleeping your entire life. Why can't you bring the same points up for gold. Civilizations have been destroyed for gold, let alone electricity.
Re:Many Bitcoin Miners Are at Risk of Turning Unprofitable by rspeer on Wednesday April 18, 2018 @12:37PM (#16868750)
So you're on board with destruction as long as you get to do it your way?

This is going to be a radical idea, so bear with me here. What if instead of destroying civilizations, we didn't destroy civilizations?

Re:Many Bitcoin Miners Are at Risk of Turning Unprofitable by onecooldev24 on Wednesday April 18, 2018 @04:52PM (#16871084)
So according to you gold should be valued at zero?
Re:Many Bitcoin Miners Are at Risk of Turning Unprofitable by aje403 on Wednesday April 18, 2018 @10:45AM (#16867779)
...But think of the oppressed nations that will be freed!
Re:Many Bitcoin Miners Are at Risk of Turning Unprofitable by Ajedi32 on Wednesday April 18, 2018 @11:10AM (#16867984)
It's not a waste. Each miner is expending resources in order to get something valuable. (Bitcoin.) They will continue to do so until the value of the resources they're expending is higher than the value of what they're receiving in return.

You don't get to decide what's wasteful and what isn't; each person decides that for themselves. That's just how economics works.

Re:Many Bitcoin Miners Are at Risk of Turning Unprofitable by asfgionio on Wednesday April 18, 2018 @11:27AM (#16868131)
>That's just how economics works.

I find it interesting that people who talk about how things are "simple economics" very rarely understand economics.

The economic definition of "efficiency" is not just "everyone doing whatever they want."

Re:Many Bitcoin Miners Are at Risk of Turning Unprofitable by Ajedi32 on Wednesday April 18, 2018 @12:09PM (#16868486)
I don't think the people claiming that Bitcoin mining as a waste are using the economic definition of "efficiency" either. They just see Bitcoin as worthless, and therefore consider Bitcoin mining to be expending energy for nothing. That's very obviously wrong though, as I've just explained.

People mining Bitcoin are doing so out of their own self-interest. If Bitcoin were not valuable enough to overcome the cost of mining it, they wouldn't be mining in the first place. Whether or not there's a more "efficient" way of doing things is irrelevant to this point.

Re:Many Bitcoin Miners Are at Risk of Turning Unprofitable by root_axis on Wednesday April 18, 2018 @01:03PM (#16868973)
Bitcoin is fundamentally wasteful because the energy expended to facilitate a transaction is a function of the network's size rather than the number of transactions that need to be processed, it's hard to think of a less efficient system.
Re:Many Bitcoin Miners Are at Risk of Turning Unprofitable by Ajedi32 on Wednesday April 18, 2018 @01:59PM (#16869459)
Again, that's irrelevant to my point.

But, for the sake of argument: less efficient compared to what? Prior to Bitcoin, there weren't any other transaction mediums that offered the same capabilities and security properties that Bitcoin does.

Every technology has advantages and costs associated with it. You can't consider the costs in isolation and use that to claim the entire technology is a waste.

Re:Many Bitcoin Miners Are at Risk of Turning Unprofitable by root_axis on Wednesday April 18, 2018 @02:41PM (#16869830)
> Again, that's irrelevant to my point.

I disagree that it's irrelevant.

> They just see Bitcoin as worthless, and therefore consider Bitcoin mining to be expending energy for nothing.

No, to reiterate, they see bitcoin mining as inherently wasteful because energy is burned without regard for useful work done. A centralized system can process multiple orders of magnitude more transactions than a PoW based one where more energy is only needed when more useful work (transactions) needs to be performed.

> less efficient compared to what?

To every other system for processing transactions that is not based on PoW, for example, the centralized banking system. Yes, I understand that those systems don't have all the same capabilities that a PoW system does, but the incumbent systems already work well without whatever added capabilities a PoW system provides and is also incidentally much more secure in practice compared to PoW based systems.

Re:Many Bitcoin Miners Are at Risk of Turning Unprofitable by jonnydubowsky on Tuesday April 24, 2018 @07:08PM (#16917461)
>the incumbent systems already work well without whatever added capabilities a PoW system provides.

Would you consider Wells Fargo's employees setting up fake accounts on behalf of their customers and charging for them, an example of these systems "working well"? Blockchain alternatives have really only seen anything close to mass adoption in the last 3 to 4 years. These are emergent solutions which are already pivoting to hybrid versions that run on renewable energy (it is afterall a race to mine with the least cost possible) and while unproven, proof of stake gives a hint towards the ongoing work to mitigate the negative impact of the underlying resource consumption. It's important to be highly sceptical and rigourous in evaluating blockchain technologies, but could it be advantageous to do so with a longer timeline as the base for analysis? Many critics here seam to treat this as if the verdict were already in.

Re:Many Bitcoin Miners Are at Risk of Turning Unprofitable by root_axis on Tuesday April 24, 2018 @07:51PM (#16917693)
> Would you consider Wells Fargo's employees setting up fake accounts on behalf of their customers and charging for them, an example of these systems "working well

I would consider that fraud; if fraud is our metric then blockchain based systems are definitively the loser.

> Blockchain alternatives have really only seen anything close to mass adoption in the last 3 to 4 years.

They haven't seen anything close to mass adaption ever and there is no foreseeable future where they will since they provide immense utility to a very tiny subsection of the population and have so far been demonstrably useless for anything else.

> These are emergent solutions which are already pivoting to hybrid versions that run on renewable energy (it is afterall a race to mine with the least cost possible) and while unproven, proof of stake gives a hint towards the ongoing work to mitigate the negative impact of the underlying resource consumption

Unfortunately the stewards of the blockchain ecosystem have squandered all credibility with regard to unproven solutions because there is just too much grandiosity compared with what has actually been produced.

> but could it be advantageous to do so with a longer timeline as the base for analysis? Many critics here seam to treat this as if the verdict were already in..

I don't think it matters; if anyone discovers a generally useful function for blockchain tokens or a way to sustain the network without an inherently slow and wasteful PoW system then the critics will look like idiots and they'll have no defense because something actually useful needs no defense, it's utility is apparent in its widespread adoption.

Re:Many Bitcoin Miners Are at Risk of Turning Unprofitable by Ajedi32 on Wednesday April 18, 2018 @03:06PM (#16870067)
Apples to oranges. The existence of traditional banking systems does not negate the demand for alternative systems with properties that traditional banking is incapable of providing.

You're, of course, free to ignore Bitcoin if those properties don't appeal to you. But the fact that you don't see value in them doesn't change the fact that others do, and if those people choose to expend their resources maintaining that system then that's, frankly, none of your business.

If the cost of maintaining the system reaches a point where it outweighs the value it generates, then and only then will people choose to stop expending their resources to maintain it. That's why your concerns about efficiency are irrelevant to my point; no matter how inefficient _you_ might think the system is, it's obviously still generating enough value to sustain itself otherwise it would cease to exist.

Re:Many Bitcoin Miners Are at Risk of Turning Unprofitable by root_axis on Wednesday April 18, 2018 @10:29PM (#16872901)
>Apples to oranges. The existence of traditional banking systems does not negate the demand for alternative systems with properties that traditional banking is incapable of providing.

I never argued this, what I'm saying is that it's fallacious to suggest that incumbent systems are not comparable to bitcoin, they are, because they compete to replace those systems in their feature-sets and are marketed as such by the stewards of these blockchain projects. Your reasoning is akin to suggesting that a Tesla can't be compared to a Hummer because it does not support the capability running on liquid fuel which has desirable properties such as high energy density and rapid refueling when compared to lithium batteries. Obviously they are not the same thing, but fuel density can be likened to decentralization in that it doesn't make a difference to the vast majority of people one way or the other as long as they can reliably get form point A to point B... except one vehicle fills the air with poison as a necessary byproduct of operation and the other does not which is clearly preferable if you don't care about fuel density (decentralization).

> no matter how inefficient _you_ might think the system is

It has nothing to do with what I think, the inefficiency is an objective fact and clearly demonstrable when you look at the numbers, your only argument seems to be "yes, one is more efficient than the other, but don't think about that because decentralization outweighs everything else"

> it's obviously still generating enough value to sustain itself otherwise it would cease to exist.

That's a tautology, "it exists so the prerequisite conditions for it to exist are obviously fulfilled". Just simply existing isn't a counterargument to criticism of waste.

Re:Many Bitcoin Miners Are at Risk of Turning Unprofitable by Ajedi32 on Thursday April 19, 2018 @11:27AM (#16876695)
> it doesn't make a difference to the vast majority of people one way or the other

Probably true. But for some people it _does_ make a big difference, and those are the people who will use and support Bitcoin as an alternative medium of payment. Again, if there was no demand for Bitcoin, it wouldn't exist.

> Just simply existing isn't a counterargument to criticism of waste.

It is though, because unless you're arguing the "waste" in this case is an externality (which it's not; miners are paying these costs out of their own pockets), Bitcoin's continued existence proves that it's generating enough value to sustain itself; even despite it having to compete with traditional banking systems.

Using your own analogy, what you're doing is akin to arguing that Tesla is a waste because cheaper electric cars exist that can get you from point a to point b just as well. (Those cars take less resources to create, therefore the more expensive Teslas are "a waste of resources".) That argument would be flawed for the same reason: you don't get to impose your definition of value on everyone else. The people buying Tesla cars obviously see some value in them beyond their competitors. If they didn't, Tesla would cease to exist. Tesla's continued existence proves their cars generate enough value for enough people to be worth the additional cost. In other words, it's not a waste.

Re:Many Bitcoin Miners Are at Risk of Turning Unprofitable by shitgoose on Wednesday April 18, 2018 @12:03PM (#16868424)
1. Parent is not talking about "efficiency", but about "waste".

2. Please, provide your economic definition of "waste", which contradicts parent.

Re:Many Bitcoin Miners Are at Risk of Turning Unprofitable by awt on Wednesday April 18, 2018 @11:30AM (#16868147)
If it isn't too obvious to bring up, is it possible that we don't necessarily know for certain that using energy to mine Bitcoin is a waste? For example some may have considered manufacturing computers a waste of energy, but the productivity gains of that use of energy has far surpassed the cost of manufacturing computers.
Re:Many Bitcoin Miners Are at Risk of Turning Unprofitable by root_axis on Wednesday April 18, 2018 @12:11PM (#16868509)
The difference is that bitcoin is of dubious value in terms of productivity gains.
Re:Many Bitcoin Miners Are at Risk of Turning Unprofitable by awt on Wednesday April 18, 2018 @01:48PM (#16869360)
As were computers. And the internet. It is not a given in any way that x amount of energy maps to productivity level y.
Re:Many Bitcoin Miners Are at Risk of Turning Unprofitable by root_axis on Wednesday April 18, 2018 @02:06PM (#16869502)
>As were computers.

That's just completely incorrect and demonstrates an ignorance of the history of computers.

>And the internet.

Once again, this statement demonstrates an ignorance of history. The early internet was a monumental research and engineering effort funded by the U.S. military because its utility was completely apparent before it was even built.

Re:Many Bitcoin Miners Are at Risk of Turning Unprofitable by awt on Wednesday April 18, 2018 @02:52PM (#16869940)
You might want to re-consider your claim of my ignorance of history and maybe think if I might have a point, even though it opposes your opinion. Nevertheless, certainly you're not claiming the USG knew that expending X resources on the early internet would result in Google?

[edit]

For those reading this who are perhaps a bit more open minded, it is not clear what the future productivity gains will be from moving capital allocation out of the hands of central banks into the hands of Bitcoin hodlers. To beat a dead horse, If 51% of energy is devoted to securing btc, but capital is allocated in a way such that productivity increases x%, where x offsets mining/transaction costs, what's the problem?

Re:Many Bitcoin Miners Are at Risk of Turning Unprofitable by awt on Wednesday April 18, 2018 @04:40PM (#16870971)
Funny. HN users have about 922 downvotes on my comments left before they lose the chance to get an occasional clue.
Re:Many Bitcoin Miners Are at Risk of Turning Unprofitable by root_axis on Wednesday April 18, 2018 @10:43PM (#16872953)
> certainly you're not claiming the USG knew that expending X resources on the early internet would result in Google?

Of course not, why would you even think that? What about a technology being obviously useful implies the need to make arbitrary predictions multiple decades into the future?

Re:Many Bitcoin Miners Are at Risk of Turning Unprofitable by awt on Thursday April 19, 2018 @11:33AM (#16876731)
Ok then how can you say that Bitcoin mining is wasteful? How can you be certain that it will not lead to massive productivity gains? What is the standard you are comparing Bitcoin to for resources required to enable censorship free payments? And how do you know precisely how much censorship free payments is worth now or at any time in the future?
Re:Many Bitcoin Miners Are at Risk of Turning Unprofitable by btcindivist on Wednesday April 18, 2018 @11:53AM (#16868345)
Ton of CO2 is generated by christmas lights. It trumps BTC or is very close.

Yes, producing a lot of cheap energy is an opportunity to use more of it.

There's a bunch of stupid things people do with energy and increase their CO2 impact. Bitcoin is just one.

I'm pretty sure abstaining from flying planes throughout all your life is more CO2 not emitted than building a small mining operation and mining for life.

I'm pretty sure if we summed up the CO2 impact of increased dietary requirements of athletes and body builders and similar would get to huge numbers.

Re:Many Bitcoin Miners Are at Risk of Turning Unprofitable by craftyguy on Wednesday April 18, 2018 @12:05PM (#16868446)
> Ton of CO2 is generated by christmas lights. It trumps BTC or is very close.

So once you have a dumpster fire, it's OK to have infinitely more dumpster fires?

Re:Many Bitcoin Miners Are at Risk of Turning Unprofitable by btcindivist on Wednesday April 18, 2018 @12:13PM (#16868518)
The rest of my comment explains that worrying about BTC CO2 impact is useless.

People do a bunch of stuff that has magnitudes bigger CO2 footprint.

Are we profiling CO2 usage? If so, what, we want to optimize the tiny footprints instead of the biggest?

BTC mining, just like Christmas lights, can work with solar. Then we are going to complain about electricity wasted.

Re:Many Bitcoin Miners Are at Risk of Turning Unprofitable by argo_ on Wednesday April 18, 2018 @09:37AM (#16867247)
If everybody stops using fiat money and switch to bitcoin, the consumption of energy will be the same by miners, but the consumption per transaction will be much lower.
Re:Many Bitcoin Miners Are at Risk of Turning Unprofitable by thisisit on Wednesday April 18, 2018 @09:51AM (#16867358)
Consumption per transaction will go up, actually. Bitcoin's value has to appreciate to accommodate everybody using it as a fiat replacement. And once it goes up, people will add even more energy to mine ever valuable bitcoin.
Re:Many Bitcoin Miners Are at Risk of Turning Unprofitable by argo_ on Wednesday April 18, 2018 @10:14AM (#16867533)
bitcoin's value is not important in the long run because the block reward (number of bitcoins created every 10 minutes) drops every 4 years and eventually go to zero by 2140. More people using bitcoin will definitely attract more energy in the short run, but the energy alocated to mine bitcoin is not going to consume the whole world as some people say. The increase of energy consumption by bitcoin miners will probably look like a sigmoid function in the far future.
Re:Many Bitcoin Miners Are at Risk of Turning Unprofitable by MereInterest on Wednesday April 18, 2018 @11:12AM (#16868008)
No. The block reward will be replaced by increasing transaction fees. If at any point the net income of miners is negative, miners will stop mining, and bitcoin becomes impossible to spend, driving transaction fees up. If the total amount of electricity wasted is ever small relative to its market cap, there will be a financial incentive to launch a 51% attack on the blockchain. Bitcoin does not scale. Bitcoin's design relies on not scaling.

Bitcoin will either be wasteful in proportion to its market cap, or it will be vulnerable to attack. There are no other options.

Re:Many Bitcoin Miners Are at Risk of Turning Unprofitable by sowbug on Wednesday April 18, 2018 @09:41PM (#16872719)
> there will be a financial incentive to launch a 51% attack on the blockchain

Anyone with that computing power will use it to earn transaction fees, not to attack Bitcoin by sniping funds through double-spends. If Bitcoin were ever attacked such that transactions were not immutable once confirmed, people would stop using it and the value of Bitcoin would drop. A 51% attack only destroys Bitcoin. There is no financial incentive (at least not in terms of Bitcoin).

(This is in the original white paper.)

Re:Many Bitcoin Miners Are at Risk of Turning Unprofitable by thisisit on Thursday April 19, 2018 @12:17AM (#16873301)
That is assuming a 51% attack is only about double-spends. There are other attacks which can be done without trying to double spend.

Still it this exact belief in math that will become a self fulfilling prophecy and keep bitcoin afloat way past someone executing 51% attack.

Re:Many Bitcoin Miners Are at Risk of Turning Unprofitable by sowbug on Thursday April 19, 2018 @03:29PM (#16879246)
Right, my reply simplified the issue.

But generally, it's a fair generalization that if step #1 in taking down Bitcoin is acquiring >50% of mining power, most rational actors will go off-mission and decide that step #2 is mine Bitcoin, not screw with it.

Re:Many Bitcoin Miners Are at Risk of Turning Unprofitable by hndamien on Wednesday April 18, 2018 @10:11AM (#16867515)
Nobody mines any more, there are too many people doing it.
Re:Many Bitcoin Miners Are at Risk of Turning Unprofitable by mikepurvis on Wednesday April 18, 2018 @09:39AM (#16867265)
Really? Isn't there an upper limit in terms of transactions per time period?
Re:Many Bitcoin Miners Are at Risk of Turning Unprofitable by argo_ on Wednesday April 18, 2018 @09:45AM (#16867316)
The scalabity problem was partly solved by the introduction of the Lightning Network in the ecosystem https://lightning.network/
Re:Many Bitcoin Miners Are at Risk of Turning Unprofitable by Klathmon on Wednesday April 18, 2018 @09:41AM (#16867288)
As Lightning Network ramps up, and if it is able to get a significant amount of usage, the upper limit in terms of transactions per time period is basically infinite.

Without Lightning then yes the amount of transactions-per-time-period is very limited.

Re:Many Bitcoin Miners Are at Risk of Turning Unprofitable by sparkie on Wednesday April 18, 2018 @09:28AM (#16867186)
Cryptocurrency is driving both improvements in computational efficiency and in cheaper clean energies. Most of the big mining operations are run on 100% renewable energy sources.
Re:Many Bitcoin Miners Are at Risk of Turning Unprofitable by nwah1 on Wednesday April 18, 2018 @09:32AM (#16867215)
>Cryptocurrency is driving both improvements in computational efficiency and in cheaper clean energies.

This is also true of war and those who buy computers to make models of why the Earth is flat.

>Most of the big mining operations are run on 100% renewable energy sources.

Admit it, you just made this up.

Re:Many Bitcoin Miners Are at Risk of Turning Unprofitable by mikepurvis on Wednesday April 18, 2018 @09:40AM (#16867280)
Even if it was "renewable energy sources" (lol), that's still energy consumed which could be doing things like supplying light, refrigeration, or, you know, useful computation.
Re:Many Bitcoin Miners Are at Risk of Turning Unprofitable by Klathmon on Wednesday April 18, 2018 @09:55AM (#16867389)
Can we stop the "bitcoin has no use" game? It might not be the most efficient, it's absolutely not the most scalable in its current state, and it isn't a physical product, but it has value, and it has uses.

Every single thread about bitcoin like clockwork people will say stupid one-liners like "but at least X has value" or "but X is useful" and like clockwork someone will bring up that Bitcoin has use and value, and then the whole discussion will derail into insults and what-ifs on what-ifs.

Bitcoin has value, Bitcoin is useful. You may not think it is that useful, or has that much value, but it has some. Many feel that it's value is a way to transact without trust, others feel its value is a way to store money outside of any single government controlled currency, others find its value is in the pseudonymity that it can provide, others find that being able to put small amounts of data on a globally immutable ledger is immensely valuable, and many people find its value as a way of gambling on the price.

Re:Many Bitcoin Miners Are at Risk of Turning Unprofitable by dmra327 on Wednesday April 18, 2018 @11:46AM (#16868294)
Well, to be frank.. if I buy solar panels and mine bitcoin with a portion of the energy who are you to tell anyone they shouldn't? Of the number of things that are wasteful in this world Bitcoin is just the latest scapegoat and no one really has evidence to show how the mining is powered.
Re:Many Bitcoin Miners Are at Risk of Turning Unprofitable by Semirhage on Wednesday April 18, 2018 @11:47AM (#16868307)
Because that’s not how the majority of coins are mined, so your hypothetical pissing-in-the-ocean operation wouldn’t even warrant praise or scorn.

and no one really has evidence to show how the mining is powered.

The majority are mined in China, and that’s for the utility of cheap coal. If you have some evidence of massive solar farms powering mining in a China, please do cough it up.

Re:Many Bitcoin Miners Are at Risk of Turning Unprofitable by altfredd on Wednesday April 18, 2018 @09:39AM (#16867273)
100% renewable as in "100% likely to be stolen or heavily subsidized with taxpayers' money".
Re:Many Bitcoin Miners Are at Risk of Turning Unprofitable by SippinLean on Wednesday April 18, 2018 @10:45AM (#16867781)
>>Most of the big mining operations are run on 100% renewable energy sources.

>Admit it, you just made this up.

I thought both Bitmain and Bitfury were using renewable energy in places like Canada and Iceland?

Re:Many Bitcoin Miners Are at Risk of Turning Unprofitable by dmoy on Wednesday April 18, 2018 @11:11AM (#16867993)
I thought a majority of hashing power was in China, though admittedly I haven't paid attention in awhile.
Re:Many Bitcoin Miners Are at Risk of Turning Unprofitable by dmead on Wednesday April 18, 2018 @09:31AM (#16867208)
This sounds wrong as hell, for anyone reading.
Re:Many Bitcoin Miners Are at Risk of Turning Unprofitable by billmalarky on Wednesday April 18, 2018 @11:19AM (#16868071)
Of course it is. Bitcoin is mined via the cheapest possible available source of energy.

Generally that isn't renewable (at this time).

Re:Many Bitcoin Miners Are at Risk of Turning Unprofitable by dmra327 on Wednesday April 18, 2018 @11:50AM (#16868320)
The number of times I've seen mining have a double use leads me to believe that it isn't so clear cut as this statement. It generates heat, and I use that heat in my greenhouses and no longer need a heater. It's not the most efficient way to heat the greenhouses but it's more profitable that using a normal heater.
Re:Many Bitcoin Miners Are at Risk of Turning Unprofitable by Semirhage on Wednesday April 18, 2018 @11:58AM (#16868396)
Other than individual-scale mining being an inefficient greenhouse heater, (or just heater in general) what are some of those dual uses you’ve seen so many times? On what scale compared to the bulk of mining activity?